Can you think of a rare event—that happened either in history or in your personal life? Looking back, how likely is it to it happen again? More generally, do you think people under- or overestimate the likelihood of rare events? Rare events happen infrequently enough that we sometimes are lulled into believing they’re rarer than they actually are so that when they do happen, we are more surprised than we should be. According to Nassim Taleb, the author of Fooled by Randomness, people tend underestimate the likelihood of rare events for these reasons: 1) we don’t properly interpret the past,
Nassim Taleb: Rare Events Are Not That Rare










