Probabilistic Thinking Puts Everything in Percentages

Probabilistic Thinking Puts Everything in Percentages

What is probabilistic thinking? How do probabilistic thinkers approach problems differently from an average person? Probabilistic thinking is essentially an approach to predicting an outcome of a situation or the likelihood of a future event. Most people tend to estimate probabilities in terms of “yes” or “no” options. In contrast, probabilistic thinkers think in terms of percentages. Keep reading to learn about the psychology of probabilistic thinking.

IARPA Forecasting Tournament Results

IARPA Forecasting Tournament Results

What is IARPA? When was it founded and what was its purpose? The Intelligence Advanced Research Activity (IARPA) is an intelligence arm operating under the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. From 2011 to 2015, IARPA ran a forecasting tournament to identify forecasting professionals and gain insight into their methods. Read about the IARPA forecasting tournament.

The Challenge of Measuring Forecast Accuracy

The Challenge of Measuring Forecast Accuracy

How do you measure forecast accuracy? What are some challenges in evaluating whether a forecast is correct and to what degree? Given all the ways our brains can work against us, forecasting accurately is incredibly difficult. But evaluating an existing forecast’s accuracy in the first place presents difficulties of its own. Read about the difficulties of measuring forecast accuracy.

A Black Swan Event: Unpredictable or Improbable?

A Black Swan Event: Unpredictable or Improbable?

What is a black swan event? Are black swan events truly unpredictable or just highly improbable? A black swan event is an extremely rare and unpredictable event or occurrence that has major negative consequences. The concept is based on the idea that someone who has only ever seen white swans would naturally assume that all swans are white and would therefore be completely unable to predict the existence of a black swan. Keep reading to learn about the concept of a black swan event.

Species-Area Relationship: The Deadly Curve

Species-Area Relationship: The Deadly Curve

What is the species-area relationship? How is it expressed in mathematics? The species-area relationship is the relationship between the area of the species habitat and the number of animal species that inhabit it. In 2004, scientists used the concept, which is expressed mathematically as a curve, to calculate the species extinction risk at different levels of global warming. Keep reading to learn about the species-area relationship.

4DX Lead Measures: Four Steps to Measuring Goals

4DX Lead Measures: Four Steps to Measuring Goals

Do you need to determine your 4DX lead measures? How can your measures support your wildly important goals? Once you have goals, you need measures to achieve progress on those goals. The 4DX lead measures are the key indicators of progress. They can be developed using a four-step process. Keep reading for the four-step process for developing 4DX lead measures.