Statistics Archives

Stephen Hawking: Aliens Are Probably Out There

What did Stephen Hawking say about aliens in his book Brief Answers to the Big Questions? Did Hawking believe in the existence of extraterrestrials? According to famed theoretical physicist Stephen Hawking, aliens most likely exist, but there’s a good chance humanity will never encounter them. This is because Hawking believed that extraterrestrial life is likely unintelligent and lacks the technology to communicate with others. Here’s an in-depth look at Stephen Hawking’s theories about aliens.

Debates Over the Ten-Thousand-Hour Rule

What is the ten-thousand-hour rule? Who first came up with the rule, and what is the research behind it? The ten-thousand-hour rule basically says that you need to practice a skill for at least ten thousand hours before you can be considered an expert. After Malcolm Gladwell published these findings in his book Outliers, there have been a number of criticisms. Here’s why the ten-thousand-hour rule doesn’t hold up.

The Neglect of Probability Bias in Decision-Making

What is the neglect of probability bias? Do you consider the probabilities of possible outcomes when making decisions? Neglect of probability bias is the tendency to disregard probability or risk when making decisions in the face of uncertainty. The most optimal choice is the one that has the highest probability of turning out well, but people tend to opt for the option that will have the biggest positive impact if it occurs, regardless of how likely it is. Here’s why we tend to neglect probability when making decisions.

Sampling Distribution: Explained in Simple Terms

The Millionaire Next Door Formula for Net Worth

What is sampling distribution? What are some of the pitfalls in working with mathematical averages in math? A sampling distribution is one of the complex math concepts many people don’t instinctively understand. The sampling distribution (or the distribution of the average) is important because averages are misleading: Your brain focuses on the average and doesn’t consider possible outliers in the distribution. Keep reading to understand sampling distribution, explained in simple terms.

The Dangers of the Sample Selection Bias

What is self-selection bias? How does self-selection bias influence research findings? Sample selection bias is a common issue in psychological studies that involve statistical analysis. Specifically, people only join studies they’re comfortable responding to, which alters your data. Those who might provide embarrassing or somehow “undesirable” responses simply won’t take part, narrowing your study’s scope and skewing the results. Here’s how sample selection bias skews research results and how to work around it.

False Causality: Correlation Doesn’t Equal Causation

What is false causality? Why do we assume causality where there is none? Humans struggle to interpret cause and effect because they confuse correlation with causation, assuming causality where there is none. For example, if a person gets the flu after they start taking vitamins, they might assume a causal relationship—taking vitamins gave them the flu—simply because the timing coincides. Let’s consider some ways the assumption of causality (where there’s none) impairs logic.

Coincidence and the Law of Very Large Numbers

What is the law of very large numbers? How does the law of very large numbers help explain coincidences? The law of very large numbers is one of the key concepts in probability and statistics. The concept is quite simple: with a sample that’s large enough, even the most improbable events could happen. Keep reading to learn about the law of very large numbers and how it explains coincidences and improbable events.

The 37% Rule: How to Know When to Settle

What is the 37% rule? How can employing the 37% rule help you make better decisions? The 37% rule is designed to solve something mathematicians call an “optimal stopping problem”—something we often encounter in daily life when faced with a series of options. The 37% can help you settle down and commit to the opportunity in front of you if you don’t know what opportunities will be available in the future. Here is how the 37% rule settle on a decision and signal when to stop searching for something better.

Game Theory: The Nash Equilibrium Explained

What is the “Nash equilibrium”? How do you calculate the Nash equilibrium? One of the most important concepts in game theory is the “Nash equilibrium”—a theoretical game state in which every player is fully aware of their opponents’ strategies yet sees no need to change their own. The game becomes stable and unchanging because everyone has settled into the best possible strategy available to them. If you can calculate an equilibrium, you can predict the inevitable stable outcome of any game’s rules and incentives. Keep reading to learn about the concept of the “Nash equilibrium” and how it is used in

How to Make Good Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty

How do you make a decision when everything is uncertain? Is there a way to predict the most likely outcome of a decision? One of the biggest obstacles preventing us from making good decisions is our inability to reliably predict the future. For example, it’s easy to decide whether or not to quit your job if you know you’ll get a raise within the next three months. As it is, the uncertain world prevents us from making decisions with confidence. Here is how to make good decisions in the face of uncertainty.