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How do you get a good statistical sample? How do some people manipulate their sample selection to mislead others? In How to Lie With Statistics, Darrell Huff explains the criteria for getting a good statistical sample size. Good sampling in statistics is important because bad sampling can lead to unintentional (or intentional) bias and misleading numbers. Keep reading to learn how to get a good sample and avoid bad sampling.
What can you learn from the How to Lie With Statistics book? What are the ten techniques that liars use to manipulate statistics? How can you assess if a statistic is reliable? In his book How to Lie With Statistics, Darrell Huff explains how people (advertisers, companies, anyone with an agenda) can manipulate numbers to yield statistics that support their cause. Since these people aren’t actually lying, it isn’t considered illegal. Huff teaches you what to look out for and how to see through liars. Continue on for more on How to Lie With Statistics.
Do you want to further your understanding of How to Lie With Statistics? Are you looking for practice questions to help you evaluate statistics? In Darrell Huff’s book, he explains how people with an agenda can manipulate statistics in their favor. We’ve put together some practice exercises to help you evaluate statistics better with Huff’s methods. Keep reading for How to Lie With Statistics practice questions.
What is the Pareto Principle? How can focusing on the “vital few” instead of the “trivial many” help you increase productivity? The Pareto Principle, or the 80/20 rule, states that as little as 20% of your tasks and effort will account for 80% of your results. Before you start a task, ask whether it’s a top 20% task or bottom 80% task; only do it if it’s high-value. Keep reading for advice on how to implement the Pareto Principle in your own life.
What is probabilistic thinking? How do probabilistic thinkers approach problems differently from an average person? Probabilistic thinking is essentially an approach to predicting an outcome of a situation or the likelihood of a future event. Most people tend to estimate probabilities in terms of “yes” or “no” options. In contrast, probabilistic thinkers think in terms of percentages. Keep reading to learn about the psychology of probabilistic thinking.
What is IARPA? When was it founded and what was its purpose? The Intelligence Advanced Research Activity (IARPA) is an intelligence arm operating under the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. From 2011 to 2015, IARPA ran a forecasting tournament to identify forecasting professionals and gain insight into their methods. Read about the IARPA forecasting tournament.
What is the function of aggregation statistics? How does aggregating data from multiple sources influence forecast accuracy? Aggregation statistics combine data from multiple sources. Aggregate numbers are often used in forecasting to obtain a more accurate prediction. Read about aggregation statistics as it relates to forecasting.
How do you measure forecast accuracy? What are some challenges in evaluating whether a forecast is correct and to what degree? Given all the ways our brains can work against us, forecasting accurately is incredibly difficult. But evaluating an existing forecast’s accuracy in the first place presents difficulties of its own. Read about the difficulties of measuring forecast accuracy.
What is management by objectives, or MBO? What is the MBO process? The MBO process lets you decide goals in advance, and then manage based on achieving those goals. The process ensures you meet milestones. Read more about the MBO process and how you can use it.
What is a black swan event? Are black swan events truly unpredictable or just highly improbable? A black swan event is an extremely rare and unpredictable event or occurrence that has major negative consequences. The concept is based on the idea that someone who has only ever seen white swans would naturally assume that all swans are white and would therefore be completely unable to predict the existence of a black swan. Keep reading to learn about the concept of a black swan event.