Statistics Archives

The Runs Created Formula: Does It Really Work?

What is the runs created formula? How does the runs created formula work? The runs created formula is a mathematical equation developed to analyze the ability of a team to produce runs and wins. The formula’s creator, Bill James, argues that the most important measurement of predicting wins is not traditional statistics like batting average and RBI, but a new metric called the runs created formula, with a runs created calculator that helped them determine player value.

Understanding Sabermetrics: Finding MLB Wins in Data

What are MLB sabermetrics? What are the steps to understanding sabermetrics and what kind of statistics are used? Understanding sabermetrics is complicated. Sabermetrics are a fairly new concept pioneered by Bill James. MLB sabermetrics were made famous by their adoption by Oakland A’s GM Billy Beane, and the book Moneyball that chronicled the A’s first season of using and understanding sabermetrics.

On Base Percentage: The Cornerstone of Moneyball

What is on base percentage, and how does it factor into the strategy in Moneyball? Is on base percentage really the most important statistic? In Moneyball, on base percentage is touted by Sabermetrics enthusiasts as one of the best predictors of player performance. Sabermetrics argues that on base percentage offers the most opportunity to players to create runs, and is most likely to lead to wins.

Moneyball Statistics: The Top 4 Stats for Player Analysis

What are the Moneyball statistics that made 2002 Oakland A’s successful? What Moneyball stats were useful? As documented in the book Moneyball, there are numerous important Moneyball statistics, but most notably, Moneyball stats were not the traditional baseball stats that baseball insiders used. Moneyball statistics focused primarily on the ability to get on base and create the opportunity for runs. These are a few examples of the statistics they used.

Game Theory Example—Why Your Choices Have Unintended Effects

What is game theory? What’s a good game theory example? Game theory is the study of outcomes in negotiation and conflict that aren’t actually intended by the individuals involved in that negotiation or conflict. In these situations, the outcome is determined not by an individual’s choices, but by the way an individual’s choices interact with the choices of other “players.” We’ll look at a game theory example and explore other theories that explore the idea that we’re serving cultures, not the other way around.

Chaotic System: What It Is + Why You Can’t Explain the Past

What is a chaotic system? What are some examples of chaotic systems, and how does the fact that history is a chaotic system affect our ability to explain the past? A chaotic system is a dynamical system that’s highly influenced by its beginnings. A chaotic system can’t be explained because it’s impossible to see how all its variables interact. There are two kinds of chaotic systems: level one chaotic systems and level two chaotic systems. We’ll cover how chaotic systems work, why they’re unpredictable, and the difference between level one and level two chaotic systems.

Gaussian Curve: Why It Fails to Explain the Real World

What is a Gaussian curve? In which situations can it accurately describe the world? Where does it fail, and what are its limits? The Gaussian curve is another name for the classic bell curve, or normal distribution curve. It’s named after German mathematician Carl Friedrich Gauss, and it describes many phenomena accurately. We’ll look at where the Gaussian curve is accurate and where (and why) it fails.

What Is a Dynamic System? Why Reality is Unpredictable

What is a dynamic system? What is dynamical systems theory? Why do dynamic systems make it so hard to make accurate predictions? A dynamical system (dynamic system) is one in which an array of inputs affect each other. Whereas prediction in a system that contains, say, two inputs, is a simple affair—one need only account for the qualities and behavior of those two inputs—prediction in a system that contains, say, five hundred billion inputs is effectively impossible. We’ll cover the most famous dynamic system examples and explore why dynamical systems make it so hard to make accurate predictions.

Adolphe Quetelet: Big Mistakes of a Brilliant Statistician

Who was Adolphe Quetelet? Why is he famous, and what was one of his biggest scientific mistakes? Adolphe Quetelet (Quételet) was a Belgian mathematician who developed the idea of the “average human” (l’homme moyen) through the use of “means”—golden averages that represented the ideal human form. He lived from 1796 to 1874. We’ll cover Adolphe Quetelet’s mistake in assuming that all phenomena can be charted on a bell curve and we’ll look at how we understand the world differently today.

Mediocristan: The Predictable, Boring World (Black Swan)

What is Mediocristan? Where is it? Where does the word come from? What elements of our lives fall under the purview of Mediocristan? Mediocristan is a term coined by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain the facets of our experience that are nonscalable. Mediocristan’s law is: Given a large-enough sample size, no individual event will have a significant effect on the total. The term was popularized by Taleb’s book The Black Swan. We’ll cover what Mediocristan is, how it differs from Extremistan, and what kinds of events, characteristics, and professions come from the land of Mediocristan.