Statistics Archives

The 37% Rule: How to Know When to Settle

What is the 37% rule? How can employing the 37% rule help you make better decisions? The 37% rule is designed to solve something mathematicians call an “optimal stopping problem”—something we often encounter in daily life when faced with a series of options. The 37% can help you settle down and commit to the opportunity in front of you if you don’t know what opportunities will be available in the future. Here is how the 37% rule settle on a decision and signal when to stop searching for something better.

Game Theory: The Nash Equilibrium Explained

What is the “Nash equilibrium”? How do you calculate the Nash equilibrium? One of the most important concepts in game theory is the “Nash equilibrium”—a theoretical game state in which every player is fully aware of their opponents’ strategies yet sees no need to change their own. The game becomes stable and unchanging because everyone has settled into the best possible strategy available to them. If you can calculate an equilibrium, you can predict the inevitable stable outcome of any game’s rules and incentives. Keep reading to learn about the concept of the “Nash equilibrium” and how it is used in

How to Make Good Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty

How do you make a decision when everything is uncertain? Is there a way to predict the most likely outcome of a decision? One of the biggest obstacles preventing us from making good decisions is our inability to reliably predict the future. For example, it’s easy to decide whether or not to quit your job if you know you’ll get a raise within the next three months. As it is, the uncertain world prevents us from making decisions with confidence. Here is how to make good decisions in the face of uncertainty.

Algorithms to Live By: Book Overview

What is Brian Christian’s and Tom Griffith’s book Algorithms to Live By about? What is the key message to take away from the book? Algorithms to Live By is an instruction manual for life: a collection of unconventional wisdom drawn from the field of computer science. Computers and humans share many of the same problems, and the same solutions that have allowed us to optimize the field of computing may be the ticket to optimizing our own lives. Below is a brief overview of Algorithms to Live By: The Computer Science of Human Decisions.

Random Decision-Making: Appeal to Chance

What do you do when faced with a difficult choice in life? Do you ever just make decisions at random? Sometimes, the best way to make a difficult choice in life is to appeal to chance. By making a few random, intentionally suboptimal decisions, you can discover opportunities you couldn’t see before and get unstuck. Here is why random decision-making is sometimes the best way to go.

Simple Rules for Making Complex Decisions

How do you make an informed decision when there are just too many variables to consider? What about variables that are yet unknown? Whenever you make a decision, you’re using all the existing data of your life so far to predict what choice will result in the best outcome. But as statistics tell us, taking too many variables into account results in faulty predictions. That’s why, sometimes, the best way to make a complex decision is to make a less informed decision. Here is why you should make less informed decisions.

The Threshold Effect: High IQ Doesn’t Mean Success

What is the threshold effect? How does it apply to intelligence and, ultimately, success in life? Geniuses are outliers—they are outside the norm when it comes to intelligence. Higher intelligence certainly can lead to greater success. However, differences in achievement based on intelligence level out at some point. This is the threshold effect. Read more to learn about the threshold effect in relation to intelligence and success.

The 3.5% Rule: The Passionate Few Change the World

What is the 3.5% rule? Does it really take only 3.5% of the population to challenge the status quo? According to Nassim Taleb, the author of Skin in the Game, the state of the world is largely the result of small groups passionately fighting for what they want rather than a majority’s consensus. Indeed, history shows us that in order for your passionate few to succeed, you only need 3.5% of the population on your side. In this article, we’ll explore how the concept applies to politics, religion, language, and morality. We’ll conclude by explaining how you yourself can be

What Is the Curse of Dimensionality?

What is the curse of dimensionality? Is it ever possible to predict the behavior of a complex system? The curse of dimensionality is a mathematical principle that states that as a system grows, the rate at which it becomes complex accelerates. In his book Skin in the Game, Nassim Taleb argues that because of the curse of dimensionality, complex systems are impossible to reliably predict—any adjustment made to a large, complex system will cause an avalanche of unintended side effects. Without the true knowledge gained from failure, we would never know enough to navigate the infinitely complex world. In this

The Diffusion of Innovation Model (aka TALC) Explained

What is the Diffusion of Innovation (aka TALC) model? How many categories of customers are there in the TALC framework? The Diffusion of Innovation model (also known as the Technology Adoption Life Cycle) was developed by Beal and Bohlen, two agricultural extension agents working for Iowa State College in the 1950s. They developed the model based on studies of when farmers started using new agricultural innovations, such as fertilizer and hybrid seed corn. Others soon generalized the model to technological innovations outside of agriculture. In this article, we’ll take a look at how the Diffusion of Innovation Model explains the