Amanda Penn, Author at Shortform Books

Grey Swans Explained: Why Prepare for Unlikely Events?

What’s a grey swan? How does it serve as a metaphor for events that aren’t predictable, exactly, but imaginable? A grey swan (alternately, gray swan) is a term for events that can’t be predicted but can be imagined. It can also refer to an event that’s unlikely but possible. The term was popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in the book Black Swan. We’ll cover what a grey swan is, how it fits in with black and white swans, and how to turn black swans grey.

Dealing With Uncertainty: 5 Successful Strategies

Accurate predictions are hard to make. The world is full of uncertainty. How do you make plans when you can’t know the future? How do you deal with uncertainty? We’ll cover the difficulties with making accurate predictions and how to deal with uncertainty in an unpredictable world.

3 Crucial Accidental Discoveries in Science

The Formless Substance: A Limitless Source of Wealth

What are some of the greatest accidental discoveries in science that changed the world? How did they happen? We’ll cover some of the most life-changing accidental discoveries, from penicillin to the cosmic microwave background, and discuss why the most profound discoveries are often the ones that are inadvertent.

Bad Predictions: The 12 Reasons You’re Making Them

Why do you make bad predictions? Is there any way to make better predictions? According to Nassim Nicholas Taleb in The Black Swan, some of the most world-altering events are unpredictable. Although many day-to-day events can be predicted, humans are bad at making accurate predictions about many major events. We’ll look at 12 fallacies and cognitive biases that encourage your bad predictions.

“Six Degrees of Separation” Theory: How We’re All Connected

What is the “six degrees of separation” theory? What does it say about how we’re connected? What is a 6 degrees of separation example? The six degrees of separation theory is the idea that every person in the world is connected to every other person in the world by a chain of family members, friends, or acquaintances that number no more than 5 people. The idea was popularized by the game “Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon.” We’ll cover the origins of the “six degrees of separation” theory, look at a 6-degrees-of-separation example, and see how the theory is connected to

Silent Evidence: 4 Surprising Ways You’re Deaf to Reality

What is silent evidence? How does ignoring it give us an inaccurate picture of the world? Silent evidence is the “flipside” to any story we’re told. It’s the tendency to forget that there are details of a situation that we don’t have access to. We’ll cover how the distortion of silent evidence leads to cognitive biases and why these distortions leave us surprised by and unprepared for the world’s randomness.

Butterfly Effect Theory Explained: Impact of Small Acts

What is the butterfly effect theory? How is it related to the idea of nonlinearities? How does it explain why we make bad predictions? The butterfly effect theory is the idea that a small change in a nonlinear system can have huge effects in the larger system. This idea was proposed by an MIT meteorologist, who discovered that an infinitesimal change in input parameters can drastically change weather models. We’ll cover what the butterfly effect theory is and how small changes can have large effects.

Rational Choice Theory: Definition and Example

What is rational choice theory? What is a good rational choice theory example? Rational choice theory is an economic theory that holds that, when faced with an economic decision, individuals will choose the option that gives them the greatest economic benefit. There are many critics of rational choice theory–after all, individuals aren’t always rational. We’ll cover a rational choice theory example and explore the above rational choice theory definition further.

Why Planning Is Important, Even in an Uncertain World

In an unpredictable world, why plan? Is there a way to prepare for unexpected events, even if we can’t exactly plan for them? Why is planning important? We’ll look at the concept of Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s “black swan” and explore why planning is important, even if the world is unpredictable.

Freedom to Live: The Hero’s Journey, Stage 17 (Explained)

What is stage 17 of Joseph Campbell’s hero’s journey? What is the significance of the “freedom to live”? Freedom to live is the stage of the hero’s journey in which the hero has found a balance between his internal and external worlds and he no longer fears death. Freedom to live is stage 17, the last stage, of Joseph Campbell’s hero’s journey, from The Hero with a Thousand Faces. We’ll cover what the freedom to live entails and look at examples of the freedom-to-live stage of the hero’s journey.