Statistics Archives

How to Track Your Weight Loss With EWMA Formula

What is the EWMA formula? Why shouldn’t you rely on raw, weight loss measurements to track your progress? EWMA stands for the Exponentially Weighted Moving Average. In The Hacker’s Diet, John Walker suggests using this formula for tracking your weight loss progress rather than focusing on the daily weight fluctuations which can be caused by a number of variables. The EWMA formula, on the other hand, tracks the trend of your weight loss. Here is how to use the EWMA formula to track your weight loss.

Luck and Success: Succeeding by a Roll of the Dice

What role does luck play in success? Do you tend to attribute your own successes to luck or effort? People often overestimate the influence of effort in success. Though hard work, skill, and intelligence are often necessary first steps toward success, they rarely account for runaway success, which is far more often due to luck—a positive rare event plus a lack of negative rare events. In today’s article, we’ll talk about luck and success—how huge of a role luck plays in bestowing success and why we often mistake it for skill.

How to Solve a Fermi Estimation Problem

What’s a Fermi estimation problem? What kinds of information does the Fermi problem probe for? A Fermi problem is a problem that involves making a justified estimation about quantities, degrees, probabilities, or variances. Fermi problems are solved by breaking down seemingly impossible questions into smaller and smaller questions. The idea is that eventually, you’ll be able to separate questions that are truly unknown from questions for which you can at least make an educated guess. Below is an example of a Fermi problem.

Superforecasting: Review, Context & Critical Reception

Budgeting and Planning: Why Is It So Important?

Is Phillip Tetlock’s Superforcasting worth reading? What was Tetlock’s inspiration in writing the book? The idea for Superforecasting came from Tetlock’s experiences with the Expert Political Judgment and Good Judgment Project forecasting experiments, during which Tetlock and his team discovered that some people are significantly better at predicting the future than others. Tetlock and Gardner set out to explore exactly what sets “superforecasters” apart from regular people; Superforecasting is the result. This Superforecasting review takes a look at the book’s intellectual context, background, impact, and discusses its key strengths and weaknesses.

Calculate Your Net Worth and Lifetime Earnings

Do you know how to calculate your net worth? How much money have you earned over your lifetime? Calculating your net worth and lifetime earnings is part of the process of improving your relationship with money and living a life you love. When you have a clear picture of where you stand, it’s easier to make wise decisions with your money. Read more to learn how to calculate your net worth and lifetime earnings.

Project Estimation Techniques in Software Engineering

What are the different project estimation techniques in software engineering? What are some things you should take into account when estimating the completion deadline of a software development project? When you’re programming something for someone, they always want to know when it will be done. Most of the time, you won’t know exactly how long something will take, so you’ll provide an estimate instead of a guarantee. There are many methods you can use to give your managers and clients an estimation, and we’ll cover three of the options.

Analyze Expenses With This Alternative to Budgeting

Do you have an effective system to analyze expenses? Did you know that there is a budget alternative for managing your spending? In Your Money or Your Life, Vicki Robin and Joe Dominguez show how to use a tabulation system to analyze expenses. It serves as a budget alternative, avoiding two pitfalls of budgets. Ultimately, it provides a more holistic view of your spending. Read more to understand this effective way to analyze expenses.

The Millionaire Next Door Formula for Net Worth

What is The Millionaire Next Door formula? What net worth is considered wealthy? The Millionaire Next Door formula multiplies your age times your pretax annual income divided by 10 to get your expected net worth—this excludes inheritances. You are wealthy if your net worth is twice as large as your expected net worth. Discover more on how to calculate your net worth using The Millionaire Next Door formula.

What Is Convexity? The Antifragile Explanation

What is convexity? How does convexity relate to antifragility? In Antifragile, Taleb explains that antifragile systems thrive off randomness and the unexpected. Part of this is due to convexity—but what is convexity exactly? In this case, it’s when an effect of an event increases alongside the intensity of the event. Read more to find out what convexity is and how it relates to antifragility.

Misleading Statistics: Examples of Techniques Used

What are the top five techniques used by liars to mislead the public and make statistics look better in their favor? How are these techniques used in practice? There are many techniques that anybody with an agenda can use to manipulate statistics in their favor. In How to Lie With Statistics, Darrell Huff explains how liars can fudge the numbers and he gives examples of misleading statistics so you can learn how to avoid being manipulated. Keep reading for misleading statistics examples and techniques that liars use.