Path Dependence Theory: The Sequence Matters

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What is path dependence theory? How can understanding path dependence help us create antifragile systems?

Path dependence theory is the idea that in order for an event to happen, a specific sequence of events must be followed and performed correctly. The outcome depends on the entire sequence.

Read more about path dependence theory and antifragility.

Understanding Path-Dependence

Consider a fragile package that gets dropped and broken. It doesn’t magically repair itself when you pick it up off the ground. The damage is irreversible; therefore, getting the package safely to its destination requires performing the right sequence of tasks in the right order. You have to pad and protect it, carry the package carefully, and store it securely. Doing any of those things out of order greatly increases the chance that the object inside will break. 

A situation like this, where it’s not just the destination but the entire sequence of events that matters, is called path-dependent. For another example of path-dependence, imagine getting surgery first and then receiving anesthesia. Clearly, your experience would be a lot different—and a lot worse—than if those events had happened in the other order. 

Path Dependence Theory: The Sequence Matters

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Carrie Cabral

Carrie has been reading and writing for as long as she can remember, and has always been open to reading anything put in front of her. She wrote her first short story at the age of six, about a lost dog who meets animal friends on his journey home. Surprisingly, it was never picked up by any major publishers, but did spark her passion for books. Carrie worked in book publishing for several years before getting an MFA in Creative Writing. She especially loves literary fiction, historical fiction, and social, cultural, and historical nonfiction that gets into the weeds of daily life.

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