Law of Small Numbers: A Deceptive Cognitive Bias

Law of Small Numbers: A Deceptive Cognitive Bias

What is the law of small numbers? How does ignoring it lead to biased decision-making? The law of small numbers is the bias of making generalizations from a small sample size. In truth, the smaller your sample size, the more likely you are to have extreme results. If you’re not aware of this principle, when you have small sample sizes, you may be misled by outliers. We’ll cover two examples of the law of small numbers in action and how to use your awareness of it to make better decisions.

Regression Toward the Mean: 7 Real-World Examples

Regression Toward the Mean: 7 Real-World Examples

What does “regression toward the mean” mean in psychology? How does it apply to everyday life? Regression toward the mean refers to the principle that, over repeated sampling periods, outliers tend to revert to the mean. High performers show disappointing results when they fail to continue delivering; strugglers show sudden improvement. We’ll cover what it means to regress toward the mean in psychology, 7 examples of regression toward the mean, and how to counter biases related to this phenomenon.

Premature Birth: Chances of Baby Survival

Premature Birth: Chances of Baby Survival

A premature birth occurs before 36 weeks and occurs in 12% of pregnancies. Early-term is between 37-38 weeks, and full-term is 39 and beyond. Over the past decades, survival for preterm babies has increased dramatically due to improvements like assisted ventilation (lungs develop later in pregnancy). It’s a marvel that even babies born at 22 weeks still have a shot at survival. What are the specific chances of survival for each week of pregnancy? How likely is a baby to survive at 24 weeks, vs 26 weeks, and 28 weeks?