Psychology Archives

Cosmological Argument: How It Distorts the Evidence

What is the cosmological argument? Is it sound? What are the arguments against the cosmological argument? The anthropic cosmological argument is the statement that human existence cannot be a random occurrence because of the specificity and number of factors that provide for that existence. This argument is touted by not only religious scholars but also physicists and philosophers. We’ll cover the basics of the cosmological argument and explore the concept of “silent evidence,” the broader term for the lack of evidence in an argument.

Illusion of Understanding: You’re Not as Smart as You Think

What is the illusion of understanding? Why do we fall for it, and what can we do about it? The illusion of understanding is the cognitive bias of thinking we have a grasp of what’s going on in the world when, in fact, the world is far more complex than we know. The idea of the illusion of understanding was popularized by Daniel Kahneman and Nassim Nicholas Taleb. We’ll cover examples of the illusion of understanding and how it impacts our lives and how we make predictions.

Ludic Fallacy: Do You Treat Life Like a Blackjack Game?

What is the ludic fallacy? How does the tendency to “tunnel” into what we know lead us into making cognitive errors? The ludic fallacy is the tendency to treat uncertainty in real life like uncertainty in games of chance. The problem with this approach is that, unlike games of chance, real life has no rules. We’ll cover how the ludic fallacy shapes our predictions and why thinking of uncertainty like a game of blackjack is unproductive.

Preferential Attachment: Why The Rich Get Richer

What is preferential attachment? Who benefits from preferential attachment? Who loses? Preferential attachment is the innate human tendency to flock to past successes, regardless of whether those successes are the product of merit or chance. Preferential attachment is a form of cumulative advantage. We’ll cover examples of preferential attachment, look at how it increases inequality in society, and discover when it’s wrong.

Epistemic Arrogance: If You’re an “Expert,” You’re Guilty

What is epistemic arrogance? Who’s guilty of epistemic arrogance, and how does thinking we know what we actually don’t get us into trouble? Epistemic arrogance is the tendency to overestimate our ability to predict when we’re overconfident in our knowledge. We’re all guilty of epistemic arrogance, but it hits “experts” the hardest. We’ll cover how epistemic arrogance leads to bad predictions and why more information isn’t always better.

Milgram’s Small-World Experiment: Connected by 6 Degrees

What was Milgram’s “small-world experiment”? How did it research the way people are connected with one another? What does it say about our world? The small-world experiment was a study in the 1960s by psychologist Stanely Milgram. During the experiment, he sent chain letters and counted how many letters were sent before they reached their final destination. We’ll cover Milgram’s small-world experiment and look at how it spawned the six degrees of separation theory.

Dealing With Uncertainty: 5 Successful Strategies

Accurate predictions are hard to make. The world is full of uncertainty. How do you make plans when you can’t know the future? How do you deal with uncertainty? We’ll cover the difficulties with making accurate predictions and how to deal with uncertainty in an unpredictable world.

Bad Predictions: The 12 Reasons You’re Making Them

Why do you make bad predictions? Is there any way to make better predictions? According to Nassim Nicholas Taleb in The Black Swan, some of the most world-altering events are unpredictable. Although many day-to-day events can be predicted, humans are bad at making accurate predictions about many major events. We’ll look at 12 fallacies and cognitive biases that encourage your bad predictions.

Silent Evidence: 4 Surprising Ways You’re Deaf to Reality

What is silent evidence? How does ignoring it give us an inaccurate picture of the world? Silent evidence is the “flipside” to any story we’re told. It’s the tendency to forget that there are details of a situation that we don’t have access to. We’ll cover how the distortion of silent evidence leads to cognitive biases and why these distortions leave us surprised by and unprepared for the world’s randomness.

Rational Choice Theory: Definition and Example

What is rational choice theory? What is a good rational choice theory example? Rational choice theory is an economic theory that holds that, when faced with an economic decision, individuals will choose the option that gives them the greatest economic benefit. There are many critics of rational choice theory–after all, individuals aren’t always rational. We’ll cover a rational choice theory example and explore the above rational choice theory definition further.