Superforecasting

The Art and Science of Prediction

Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner | 4.25 | 13,324 ratings and reviews

Recommended by Vinod Khosla, Vinod Khosla, Sheil Kapadia, and 4 others. See all reviews

Ranked #11 in Risk Management, Ranked #12 in Probability — see more rankings.

A New York Times Bestseller

An Economist Best Book of 2015

"The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow."
—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal

Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?

In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."

In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic. less

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Reviews and Recommendations

We've comprehensively compiled reviews of Superforecasting from the world's leading experts.

Vinod Khosla Co-Founder/Sun MicrosystemRecommends this book

Sheil Kapadia Read the book Superforecasting, had a great conversation with @bcmassey and came up with seven ideas for how NFL teams can try to find small edges during the draft process. Would love to hear feedback on this one. https://t.co/PdN1fKCagl (Source)

Julia Galef [Has] some good advice on how to improve your ability to make accurate predictions. (Source)

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