# 100 Best Probability Books of All Time

We've researched and ranked the best probability books in the world, based on recommendations from world experts, sales data, and millions of reader ratings. Learn more

The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.

Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to... more

Bill Gates[On Bill Gates's reading list in 2012.] (Source)

Jeff Bezos[From the book "The Everything Store: and the Age of Amazon"] “The scholar argues that people are wired to see patterns in chaos while remaining blind to unpredictable events, with massive consequences. Experimentation and empiricism trumps the easy and obvious narrative,” Stone writes. (Source)

James AltucherAnd throw in “The Black Swan” and “Fooled by Randomness”. “Fragile” means if you hit something might break. “Resilient” means if you hit something, it will stay the same. On my podcast Nassim discusses “Antifragility” – building a system, even on that works for you on a personal level, where you if you harm your self in some way it becomes stronger. That podcast changed my life He discusses... (Source)

These may not sound like typical questions for an economist to ask. But Steven D. Levitt is not a typical economist. He is a much heralded scholar who studies the stuff and riddles of everyday life -- from cheating and crime to sports and child rearing -- and whose... more

Malcolm GladwellI don’t need to say much here. This book invented an entire genre. Economics was never supposed to be this entertaining. (Source)

Daymond JohnI love newer books like [this book]. (Source)

James Altucher[James Altucher recommended this book on the podcast "The Tim Ferriss Show".] (Source)

*New York Times*bestseller

Winner of the National Academy of Sciences Best Book Award in 2012

Selected by the

*New York Times Book Review*as one of the best books of 2011

A

*Globe and Mail*Best Books of the Year 2011 Title

One of

*The Economist*'s 2011 Books of the Year

One of

*The Wall Street Journal*'s Best Nonfiction Books of the Year 2011

2013 Presidential Medal of Freedom Recipient

In the international bestseller,

*Thinking, Fast and Slow*, Daniel Kahneman, the renowned psychologist and winner of the Nobel... more

Barack ObamaA few months ago, Mr. Obama read “Thinking, Fast and Slow,” by Daniel Kahneman, about how people make decisions — quick, instinctive thinking versus slower, contemplative deliberation. For Mr. Obama, a deliberator in an instinctive business, this may be as instructive as any political science text. (Source)

Bill Gates[On Bill Gates's reading list in 2012.] (Source)

Marc AndreessenCaptivating dive into human decision making, marred by inclusion of several/many? psychology studies that fail to replicate. Will stand as a cautionary tale? (Source)

*Factfulness:*The stress-reducing habit of only carrying opinions for which you have strong supporting facts.When asked simple questions about global trends—

*what percentage of the world’s population live in poverty; why the world’s population is increasing; how many girls finish school*—we systematically get the answers wrong. So wrong that a chimpanzee choosing answers at random will consistently outguess teachers, journalists, Nobel laureates, and investment bankers.

In

*Factfulness*, Professor of International Health and global TED phenomenon... more

Barack ObamaAs 2018 draws to a close, I’m continuing a favorite tradition of mine and sharing my year-end lists. It gives me a moment to pause and reflect on the year through the books I found most thought-provoking, inspiring, or just plain loved. It also gives me a chance to highlight talented authors – some who are household names and others who you may not have heard of before. Here’s my best of 2018... (Source)

Bill GatesThis was a breakthrough to me. The framework Hans enunciates is one that took me decades of working in global development to create for myself, and I could have never expressed it in such a clear way. I’m going to try to use this model moving forward. (Source)

Nigel WarburtonIt’s an interesting book, it’s very challenging. It may be over-optimistic. But it does have this startling effect on the readers of challenging widely held assumptions. It’s a plea to look at the empirical data, and not just assume that you know how things are now. (Source)

*Fooled by Randomness*is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are*The Black Swan, Antifragile,*and*The Bed of Procrustes*.Now in a striking new hardcover edition, Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb–veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar,... more

James AltucherAnd throw in “The Black Swan” and “Fooled by Randomness”. “Fragile” means if you hit something might break. “Resilient” means if you hit something, it will stay the same. On my podcast Nassim discusses “Antifragility” – building a system, even on that works for you on a personal level, where you if you harm your self in some way it becomes stronger. That podcast changed my life He discusses... (Source)

Howard MarksReally about how much randomness there is in our world. (Source)

Anant JainThe five-book series, "Incerto", by Nassim Nicholas Taleb has had a profound impact on how I think about the world. There’s some overlap across the books — but you'll likely find the repetition helpful in retaining the content better. (Source)

His answer is that we pay too much attention to what successful people are like, and too little attention to where they are from: that is, their culture, their family, their generation, and the idiosyncratic experiences of their upbringing. Along the way he explains the secrets of software billionaires, what it takes to be a great soccer player,... more

Bill Gates[On Bill Gates's reading list in 2011.] (Source)

James AltucherGladwell is not the first person to come up with the 10,000 hour rule. Nor is he the first person to document what it takes to become the best in the world at something. But his stories are so great as he explains these deep concepts. How did the Beatles become the best? Why are professional hockey players born in January, February and March? And so on. (Source)

Cat Williams-TreloarThe books that I've talked the most about with friends and colleagues over the years are the Malcolm Gladwell series of novels. Glorious stories that mix science, behaviours and insight. You can't go wrong with the "The Tipping Point", "Outliers", "Blink" or "David & Goliath". (Source)

In The Black Swan Taleb outlined a problem; in

*Antifragile*he offers a definitive solution: how to gain from disorder and chaos while being protected from fragilities and adverse events. For what he calls the "antifragile" is one step beyond robust, as it benefits from adversity, uncertainty and stressors, just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension.

Taleb stands... more

James AltucherYou ask about success. To be successful you have to avoid being “fragile” – the idea that if something hurts you, you let collapse completely. You also have to avoid simply being resilient. Bouncing back is not enough. Antifragile is when something tries to hurt you and you come back stronger. That is real life business. That is real life success. Nassim focuses on the economy. But when I read... (Source)

Marvin Liaoeval(ez_write_tag([[250,250],'theceolibrary_com-leader-2','ezslot_7',164,'0','1'])); My list would be (besides the ones I mentioned in answer to the previous question) both business & Fiction/Sci-Fi and ones I personally found helpful to myself. The business books explain just exactly how business, work & investing are in reality & how to think properly & differentiate yourself. On... (Source)

Vlad TenevThe general concept is applicable to many fields beyond biology, for instance finance, economics and monetary policy. (Source)

En este nuevo libro, Leonard Mlodinow... more

David SpiegelhalterThis is a general introduction to the history of probability and the way it comes into everyday life. It intersperses the historical development with modern applications, and looks at finance, sport, gambling, lotteries and coincidences. (Source)

Gabriel CoarnaLeonard Mlodinow's "The Drunkarkd's Walk" -more precisely, the section on the "Monty Hall" problem- totally changed how I look-at/think-about probabilities and choices in general; this has impacted almost every real-life choice I've made since I read this book. (Source)

Howard MarksSo good. (Source)

Jason ZweigIn the book, he explores risk at every conceivable level – what it is mathematically and what it is psychologically, how it has played out historically, how people have thought to measure it and also to control it. (Source)

John Lanchesterit’s an absolutely fascinating, for-the-layman account of how humanity mastered risk and came to understand probability. (Source)

In April 1956, a refitted oil tanker carried fifty-eight shipping containers from Newark to Houston. From that modest beginning, container shipping developed into a huge industry that made the boom in global trade possible. "The Box" tells the dramatic story of the container's creation, the decade of struggle before it was widely adopted, and the sweeping economic consequences of the sharp fall in transportation costs that containerization brought about.

Published on the fiftieth anniversary of the first container voyage, this is the first comprehensive history of the shipping... more

Bill GatesI picked this one up after seeing it on a Wall Street Journal list of good books for investors. It was first published in 1954, but it doesn’t feel dated (aside from a few anachronistic examples—it has been a long time since bread cost 5 cents a loaf in the United States). In fact, I’d say it’s more relevant than ever. One chapter shows you how visuals can be used to exaggerate trends and give... (Source)

Tobi LütkeWe all live in Malcolm’s world because the shipping container has been hugely influential in history. (Source)

Jason ZweigThis is a terrific introduction to critical thinking about statistics, for people who haven’t taken a class in statistics. (Source)

**Don't have time to read the top Probability books of all time? Read Shortform summaries.**

Shortform summaries help you learn 10x faster by:

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**most important points in the book** - Cutting out the fluff: you focus your time on what's important to know
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New York Times Bestseller

"Not so different in spirit from the way public intellectuals like John Kenneth Galbraith once shaped discussions of economic policy and public figures like Walter Cronkite helped sway opinion on the Vietnam War…could turn out to be one of the more momentous books of the decade."

-New York Times Book Review

"Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century."

-Rachel Maddow, author of Drift

"A serious... more

Bill GatesAnyone interested in politics may be attracted to Nate Silver’s The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—but Some Don't. Silver is the New York Times columnist who got a lot of attention last fall for predicting—accurately, as it turned out–the results of the U.S. presidential election. This book actually came out before the election, though, and it’s about predictions in many... (Source)

**A**

**New York Times****Bestseller**

**An**

*Economist*Best Book of 2015"

**The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's**"

*Thinking, Fast and Slow*.—

**Jason Zweig,**

*The Wall Street Journal*Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even... more

Sheil KapadiaRead the book Superforecasting, had a great conversation with @bcmassey and came up with seven ideas for how NFL teams can try to find small edges during the draft process. Would love to hear feedback on this one. https://t.co/PdN1fKCagl (Source)

Julia Galef[Has] some good advice on how to improve your ability to make accurate predictions. (Source)

In his most provocative and practical book yet, one of the foremost thinkers of our time redefines what it means to understand the world, succeed in a profession, contribute to a fair and just society, detect nonsense, and influence others. Citing examples ranging from Hammurabi to Seneca, Antaeus the Giant to Donald Trump, Nassim Nicholas Taleb shows how the willingness to... more

Ben HorowitzA book about the dynamics of how large-scale, highly random systems behave. (Source)

Marc AndreessenSkin in the game as conflict of interest, or as attaching one's livelihood to one's speech? Who to listen to, and why. Ideal counterpart to Philip Tetlock's Expert Political Judgment. (Source)

Daniel KahnemanChanged my view of how the world works. (Source)

Roger D. PengThis book is written by a powerhouse of authors in the machine learning community, true authorities in the field. But beyond that, they’re also great writers. (Source)

*Naked Statistics*, the right data and a few well-chosen statistical tools... more

The answer: turn to Burton G. Malkiel’s advice in his reassuring, authoritative, gimmick-free, and perennially best-selling guide to investing. Long established as the first book to purchase before starting a portfolio or 401(k),

*A Random Walk Down Wall Street*now features new material on “tax-loss harvesting,” the crown jewel of tax management; the current bitcoin bubble; and automated investment advisers; as well as a brand-new chapter on... more

Michael HebenstreitIf you want to get into stock trading or in case you want to become an investor, then I definitely would recommend to read the book I already mentioned and in addition: A Random Walk Down Wall Street by Burton Malkiel. (Source)

Andrew W LoIt’s a wonderful read because it doesn’t presuppose any background knowledge of economics or finance…It’s had so much staying power. It was written in the 1970s, a bestseller when it came out, and it’s still a bestseller now. I recommend it to my MBA students today because it’s just a wonderful introduction to the field of finance. At the same time, it provides some very sensible advice for... (Source)

This is the... more

Michael OkudaEdward Tufte's classic book, The Visual Display of Quantitative Information is a fascinating, surprisingly readable treatise for anyone interested in infographics. When I hired artists for the Star Trek graphics dept, I sometimes asked them to read it.https://t.co/cK4GQqBDxp (Source)

**A complete guide to the theory and practical applications of probability theory**

*An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications*uniquely blends a comprehensive overview of probability theory with the real-world application of that theory. Beginning with the background and very nature of probability theory, the book then proceeds through sample spaces, combinatorial analysis, fluctuations in coin tossing and random walks, the combination of events, types of distributions, Markov chains, stochastic processes, and more. The book's comprehensive approach... more

*Chaos*, James Gleick, a former science writer for the

*New York Times*, shows that he resides in this exclusive category. Here he takes on the job of depicting the first years of the study of chaos--the seemingly random patterns that characterise many natural phenomena.

This is not a purely technical book. Instead, it focuses as much on the scientists studying chaos as on the chaos itself. In the pages of Gleick's book, the reader meets dozens of...

morePedro G FerreiraIt turns out that even simple equations can have such complicated behaviour that, in practice, it’s impossible to predict the outcome, which is described as ‘chaotic’. (Source)

Adam MaloofJames Gleick is a former science writer for the New York Times and in this book Gleick describes the science of chaos, and how complex systems can also be interpreted in terms of simple rules and simple (but interacting) behaviours. (Source)

**Don't have time to read the top Probability books of all time? Read Shortform summaries.**

Shortform summaries help you learn 10x faster by:

- Being comprehensive: you learn the
**most important points in the book** - Cutting out the fluff: you focus your time on what's important to know
- Interactive exercises:
**apply the book's ideas to your own life**with our educators' guidance.

**A Turing Award-winning computer scientist and statistician shows how understanding causality has revolutionized science and will revolutionize artificial intelligence**

**"Correlation is not causation." This mantra, chanted by scientists for more than a century, has led to a virtual prohibition on causal talk. Today, that taboo is dead. The causal revolution, instigated by Judea Pearl and his colleagues, has cut through a century of confusion and established causality--the study of cause and effect--on a firm scientific basis. His work explains how we can know easy things,... more**

D.a. Wallach@EricTopol @yudapearl @bschoelkopf @MPI_IS I love @yudapearl 's book so much! Profound, heterodox. (Source)

Kirk Borne.@yudapearl wrote the awesome "Book of Why", but he recommends this fun and less #mathematics-heavy read >> his #AI lecture given in 1999: https://t.co/kNYIoJ8qcY #DataScience #MachineLearning #Statistics #BookofWhy #Causalinference #Bayes https://t.co/CNQlKP8cU3 (Source)

Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and... more

Charles DuhiggThrough wonderful storytelling and sly wit, Annie Duke has crafted the ultimate guide to thinking about risk. We can all learn how to make better decisions by learning from someone who made choices for a living, with millions on the line. (Source)

Marc AndreessenCompact guide to probabilistic domains like poker, or venture capital. Best articulation of "resulting", drawing bad conclusions from confusing process and outcome. Recommend for people operating in the real world. (Source)

Seth GodinBrilliant. Buy ten copies and give one to everyone you work with. It's that good. (Source)

Jonah LehrerThis is one of the most influential books in modern economics. (Source)

Adam RobinsonThis study should be taught at every business school in the country. (Source)

Adam RobinsonThis study should be taught at every business school in the country. (Source)

*A Mind for Numbers*offers the tools you need to get a better grasp of that intimidating but inescapable field. Engineering professor Barbara Oakley knows firsthand how it feels to struggle with math. She flunked her way through high school math and science courses, before enlisting in the army immediately after graduation. When she saw how her lack of mathematical and technical savvy severely limited her options—both to... more

The book covers:

Basic concepts such as random experiments, probability axioms, conditional probability, and counting methods

Single and multiple random variables (discrete, continuous, and mixed), as well as moment-generating functions, characteristic functions,... more

**The**—

*Freakonomics*of math**a math-world superstar unveils the hidden beauty and logic of the world and puts its power in our hands**

The math we learn in school can seem like a dull set of rules, laid down by the ancients and not to be questioned. In

*How Not to Be Wrong*, Jordan Ellenberg shows us how terribly limiting this view is: Math isn’t confined to abstract incidents that never occur in real life, but rather touches everything we do—the whole world is shot through with it.

Math allows us to see the hidden structures underneath the messy and... more

Bill GatesThe writing is funny, smooth, and accessible -- not what you might expect from a book about math. What Ellenberg has written is ultimately a love letter to math. If the stories he tells add up to a larger lesson, it’s that 'to do mathematics is to be, at once, touched by fire and bound by reason' -- and that there are ways in which we’re all doing math, all the time. (Source)

Auston BunsenI’ve got a few, one book that really impacted me early on as someone coming from a middle-class family was “Rich dad, Poor dad”. Since then I’ve read many books but one that really stands out is “How not to be wrong” by Jordan Ellenberg which really reignited my appetite & appreciation for math. (Source)

Nick GanjuWritten for an audience of people who have historically been intimidated by math [...] and introduces things in a very simple way, and then works up to more complex concepts. (Source)

James Owen WeatherallWhat Mandelbrot realised early on, at the start of the 1960s, was that the kind of assumptions about statistics that everyone was making were wrong. (Source)

**Don't have time to read the top Probability books of all time? Read Shortform summaries.**

Shortform summaries help you learn 10x faster by:

- Being comprehensive: you learn the
**most important points in the book** - Cutting out the fluff: you focus your time on what's important to know
- Interactive exercises:
**apply the book's ideas to your own life**with our educators' guidance.

Tim @RealscientistsIf you are interested in learning programming, there are lots of great tutorials. For data analysis, R and the R 4 data science book is a great way to go https://t.co/zezYpG0TRL, and for general R syntax, there is the swirl learning package https://t.co/Tzfpnlgo3O /20 (Source)

*Brain Ques*t.

*Everything You Need to Ace Math . . .*covers everything to get a student over any math hump: fractions, decimals, and how to multiply and divide them; ratios, proportions, and percentages; geometry; statistics and probability; expressions and equations; and the coordinate plane and functions.

The BIG FAT NOTEBOOK™ series is built on a simple and irresistible conceit—borrowing the notes from the smartest kid in class. There are five books in all,... more

*Chaos*and

*Genius,*now brings us a work just as astonishing and masterly: a revelatory chronicle and meditation that shows how information has become the modern era’s defining quality—the blood, the fuel, the vital principle of our world.

The story of information begins in a time profoundly unlike our own, when every thought and utterance vanishes as soon as it is born. From the invention of scripts and alphabets to the long-misunderstood talking drums of Africa, Gleick tells the story of information technologies that... more

Nicholas CarrIf Standage’s is a small book focused on a particular technology and moment in time, Gleick’s is extraordinarily broad and sweeping. It’s a very large book, in which he tries – and succeeds in many ways I think – to tell the story of information in human history. Information breaks down into two different things in essence. On the one hand it is messages – things with meaning to human beings –... (Source)

Today should be one of the worst days of seventeen-year-old Hadley Sullivan's life. Having missed her flight, she's stuck at JFK airport and late to her father's second wedding, which is taking place in London and involves a soon-to-be stepmother Hadley's never even met. Then she meets the perfect boy in the airport's cramped waiting area. His name is Oliver, he's British, and he's sitting in her row.

A long night on the plane passes in the blink of an eye, and Hadley and Oliver lose track of each other in... more

Shannon and MIT mathematician Edward O. Thorp took the "Kelly formula" to Las Vegas. It worked. They realized that there was even more money to be made... more

P. D. Mangan@MarquisDeMarche @natstewart5 Great book. (Source)

**Don't have time to read the top Probability books of all time? Read Shortform summaries.**

Shortform summaries help you learn 10x faster by:

- Being comprehensive: you learn the
**most important points in the book** - Cutting out the fluff: you focus your time on what's important to know
- Interactive exercises:
**apply the book's ideas to your own life**with our educators' guidance.

Sophie ScottIf you were listening to #themathsoflife on today’s @laurenlaverne show and you’d like to know more about how we can misperceive numbers and magnitude, I recommend @JohnAllenPaulos and his brilliant book, Innumeracy. (Source)

Additional materials such as videos, lectures, and calculators are available at more

In the first-ever account of Bayes' rule for general readers, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it. She traces its discovery by an amateur mathematician in the 1740s through its development into roughly its modern form by French scientist... more

*Probabilistic Deep Learning*shows how probabilistic deep learning models gives readers the tools to identify and account for uncertainty and potential errors in their results.

Starting by applying the underlying maximum likelihood principle of curve fitting to deep learning, readers will move on to using the Python-based Tensorflow Probability framework, and set up Bayesian neural networks that can state their uncertainties.

Purchase of the print book includes a free eBook in PDF, Kindle, and ePub formats from Manning Publications. less

This book is the best nontechnical introduction to probability ever written. Its author, the late Dr. Warren Weaver, was a professor of mathematics, active in the Rockefeller and Sloan... more

**Don't have time to read the top Probability books of all time? Read Shortform summaries.**

Shortform summaries help you learn 10x faster by:

- Being comprehensive: you learn the
**most important points in the book** - Cutting out the fluff: you focus your time on what's important to know
- Interactive exercises:
**apply the book's ideas to your own life**with our educators' guidance.

Steve Burns@RampCapitalLLC @mjmauboussin I’m reading this now, great book! (Source)

**The incredible true story of the card-counting mathematics professor who taught the world how to beat the dealer and, as the first of the great quantitative investors, ushered in a revolution on Wall Street.**

A child of the Great Depression, legendary mathematician Edward O. Thorp invented card counting, proving the seemingly impossible: that you could beat the dealer at the blackjack table. As a result he launched a gambling renaissance. His remarkable success--and mathematically unassailable method--caused such an uproar that casinos altered the rules of the game to thwart... more

**The book investigates the misapplication of conventional statistical techniques to fat tailed distributions and looks for remedies, when possible.**Switching from thin tailed to fat tailed distributions requires more than "changing the color of the dress." Traditional asymptotics deal mainly with either n=1 or n=∞, and the real world is in between, under the "laws of the medium numbers"-which vary widely across specific distributions. Both the law of large numbers and the generalized central limit mechanisms operate in highly idiosyncratic ways outside the standard Gaussian or... more

This text is intended as a tutorial guide for senior undergraduates and research students in science and engineering. After explaining the basic principles of Bayesian probability theory, their use is illustrated with a variety of examples ranging from elementary parameter estimation to image processing. Other topics covered include reliability analysis,... more

In this ground-breaking, compulsively readable book, Dan Gardner shows how our flawed strategies for perceiving risk influence our lives, often with unforeseen and sometimes-tragic consequences. He throws light on our paranoia about everything from paedophiles to terrorism and reveals how the most significant threats are actually the mundane risks to which we pay little... more

Evan SolomonJust did a short radio essay on risk and quoted your great book Risk: the science and politics of fear re reactions to corona virus. Recommended read to this day! Thanks Dan. https://t.co/7L70b5DYLB (Source)

**Don't have time to read the top Probability books of all time? Read Shortform summaries.**

Shortform summaries help you learn 10x faster by:

- Being comprehensive: you learn the
**most important points in the book** - Cutting out the fluff: you focus your time on what's important to know
- Interactive exercises:
**apply the book's ideas to your own life**with our educators' guidance.

**From**

We are bombarded with more information each day than our brains can process—especially in election season. It's raining bad data, half-truths, and even outright lies.

*The**New York Times*bestselling author of THE ORGANIZED MIND and THIS IS YOUR BRAIN ON MUSIC, a primer to the critical thinking that is more necessary now than ever.*New York Times*bestselling author Daniel J. Levitin shows how to recognize misleading announcements, statistics, graphs, and written reports revealing the ways lying weasels can use them.

It's... more

**An eye-opening look at the ways we misjudge risk every day and a guide to making better decisions with our money, health, and personal lives**

In the age of Big Data we often believe that our predictions about the future are better than ever before. But as risk expert Gerd Gigerenzer shows, the surprising truth is that in the real world, we often get better results by using simple rules and considering less information.

In

*R*, Gigerenzer reveals that most of us, including doctors, lawyers, financial advisers, and elected officials,... more

*isk*Savvy*The Science of Conjecture*, James Franklin examines how judges, witch inquisitors, and juries evaluated evidence; how scientists weighed reasons for and against scientific theories; and how merchants counted shipwrecks to determine insurance rates.

*The Science of Conjecture*provides a history of rational methods of... more

Nassim Nicholas TalebAs a practitioner of probability, I've had to read many books on the subject. Most are linear combinations of other books and ideas rehashed without real understanding that the idea of probability harks back to the Greek pisteuo (credibility) [and pithanon that led to probabile in latin] and pervaded classical thought. Almost all of these writers made the mistake to think that the ancients were... (Source)

**The definitive guide to statistical thinking**

Statistics are everywhere, as integral to science as they are to business, and in the popular media hundreds of times a day. In this age of big data, a basic grasp of statistical literacy is more important than ever if we want to separate the fact from the fiction, the ostentatious embellishments from the raw evidence -- and even more so if we hope to participate in the future, rather than being simple bystanders.

In

*The Art of Statistics*, world-renowned statistician David Spiegelhalter shows readers how to derive knowledge... more

Dan Davies@amoralelite @d_spiegel It's a great book. I thought it was like coming home because I've always tried to avoid calculation due to the dyspraxia and it was just "yes, that's how you think about it" (Source)

Fascinated by issues of aging and mortality, West applied the rigor of a physicist to the biological question of why we live as long as we... more

Vinod KhoslaThe physics behind biology, cities, economics and companies. Do they grow, scale and die by the same math equations? New insights that are enlightening and delightful. (Source)

**Don't have time to read the top Probability books of all time? Read Shortform summaries.**

Shortform summaries help you learn 10x faster by:

- Being comprehensive: you learn the
**most important points in the book** - Cutting out the fluff: you focus your time on what's important to know
- Interactive exercises:
**apply the book's ideas to your own life**with our educators' guidance.

**Fun guide to learning Bayesian statistics and probability through unusual and illustrative examples.**

Probability and statistics are increasingly important in a huge range of professions. But many people use data in ways they don't even understand, meaning they aren't getting the most from it.

*Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way*will change that.

This book will give you a complete understanding of Bayesian statistics through simple explanations and un-boring examples. Find out the probability of UFOs landing in your garden, how likely Han Solo is to survive a... more

“Inventions of Asia”, the first section, deals primarily with how the West reinvents the East (and how the East invents itself): images of India

*circa*1492 (where Columbus thought he was going); Christian missionaries in sixteenth-century... more

*The Improbability Principle*, the renowned statistician David J. Hand argues that extraordinarily rare events are anything but. In fact, they’re commonplace. Not only that, we should all expect to experience a miracle roughly once every month.

But Hand is no believer in superstitions, prophecies, or the paranormal. His definition of “miracle” is thoroughly rational. No mystical or supernatural explanation is necessary to understand why someone is lucky enough to win the lottery twice, or is destined to be hit by lightning three times and still survive. All we need, Hand... more

But the average doesn’t just influence how we see ourselves—our entire social system has been built around this average-size-fits-all model. Schools are designed for the average student. Healthcare is designed for the average patient. Employers try to fill average... more

Anne DwaneIt does a great job exploring the opportunity for personalization in education, medicine and countless other fields — which will hopefully drive countless other opportunities. (Source)

Suitable as a supplementary source for advanced undergraduates and graduate courses in the... more

Eric Weinstein[Eric Weinstein recommended this book on Twitter.] (Source)

**Don't have time to read the top Probability books of all time? Read Shortform summaries.**

Shortform summaries help you learn 10x faster by:

- Being comprehensive: you learn the
**most important points in the book** - Cutting out the fluff: you focus your time on what's important to know
- Interactive exercises:
**apply the book's ideas to your own life**with our educators' guidance.

**The Book That Made Las Vegas Change the Rules**

Over 1,000,000 Copies in Print

Over 1,000,000 Copies in Print

Edward O. Thorp is the father of card counting, and in this classic guide he shares the revolutionary point system that has been successfully used by professional and amateur card players for generations. This book provides:

o an overview of the basic rules of the game

o proven winning strategies ranging from simple to advanced

o methods to overcome casino counter measures

o ways to spot cheating

o charts and tables that clearly illustrate key concepts more

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Graciela ChichilniskyThis book is by a famous statistician who is now dead. Savage didn’t fall into the trap of DeGroot, who dismissed catastrophic risks. Instead he went to the other extreme. Savage’s approach can focus solely on rare events. So DeGroot underestimates rare events and Savage’s approach (which was very controversial at the time) can underestimate frequent events. That is no good either. (Source)

Ethan wakes up one morning to find a very strange cat stuck on his head. The cat, Odds, refuses to budge until Ethan wins a game of probability. Without looking, Ethan must pick out a dime from his coin collection or two matching socks from his dresser, or do something else improbable. If he doesn't, Odds is there to stay, and Ethan has a 100% chance of missing his big soccer game.

A very improbable story about a challenging math concept. less

This third edition offers for the first time a supplement on Measure and Integral. This material has been used to supplement Dr. Chung's course for many years. It will assist students not... more

**Probability and Measure Theory, Second Edition**, is a text for a graduate-level course in probability that includes essential background topics in analysis. It provides extensive coverage of conditional probability and expectation, strong laws of large numbers, martingale theory, the central limit theorem, ergodic theory, and Brownian motion.

* Clear, readable style

* Solutions to many problems presented in text

* Solutions manual for instructors

* Material new to the second edition on ergodic theory, Brownian motion, and convergence theorems used in statistics more

**Don't have time to read the top Probability books of all time? Read Shortform summaries.**

Shortform summaries help you learn 10x faster by:

- Being comprehensive: you learn the
**most important points in the book** - Cutting out the fluff: you focus your time on what's important to know
- Interactive exercises:
**apply the book's ideas to your own life**with our educators' guidance.

The main topics covered by the book are as follows.

PART 1 - MATHEMATICAL TOOLS: set theory, permutations, combinations, partitions, sequences and limits, review of differentiation and integration rules, the Gamma and... more

*Discovering Statistics Using SPSS*takes students on a journey of statistical discovery using the freeware R. Like its sister textbook,

**Discovering Statistics Using R**is written in an irreverent style and follows the same ground-breaking structure and pedagogical approach. The core material is enhanced by a cast of characters to help the reader on their way, hundreds of examples, self-assessment tests to consolidate knowledge, and additional website material for those wanting to learn more. less

**An insightful, revealing history of the magical mathematics that transformed our world.**

At a summer tea party in Cambridge, England, a guest states that tea poured into milk tastes different from milk poured into tea. Her notion is shouted down by the scientific minds of the group. But one man, Ronald Fisher, proposes to scientifically test the hypothesis. There is no better person to conduct such an experiment, for Fisher is a pioneer in the field of statistics.

*The Lady Tasting Tea*spotlights not only Fisher's theories but also the revolutionary ideas of... more

**A leading data visualization expert explores the negative—and positive—influences that charts have on our perception of truth.**

We’ve all heard that a picture is worth a thousand words, but what if we don’t understand what we’re looking at? Social media has made charts, infographics, and diagrams ubiquitous—and easier to share than ever. While such visualizations can better inform us, they can also deceive by displaying incomplete or inaccurate data, suggesting misleading patterns—or simply misinform us by being poorly designed, such as the confusing “eye of the... more

**Barron’s AP Statistics has in-depth content review, practice tests, and expert explanations to help students feel prepared on test day.**

This edition includes:

Five full-length practice tests in the book

Three full-length practice tests online

One diagnostic test helps identify strengths and weaknesses so students can focus their study on areas for improvement

Comprehensive subject review for all test topics

Additional multiple-choice and free-response questions with answers

End-of-chapter quizzes for quick review with detailed answer... more

**Don't have time to read the top Probability books of all time? Read Shortform summaries.**

Shortform summaries help you learn 10x faster by:

- Being comprehensive: you learn the
**most important points in the book** - Cutting out the fluff: you focus your time on what's important to know
- Interactive exercises:
**apply the book's ideas to your own life**with our educators' guidance.