100 Best Probability Books of All Time

Bill Gates[On Bill Gates's reading list in 2012.] (Source)

Jeff Bezos[From the book "The Everything Store: and the Age of Amazon"] “The scholar argues that people are wired to see patterns in chaos while remaining blind to unpredictable events, with massive consequences. Experimentation and empiricism trumps the easy and obvious narrative,” Stone writes. (Source)

James AltucherAnd throw in “The Black Swan” and “Fooled by Randomness”. “Fragile” means if you hit something might break. “Resilient” means if you hit something, it will stay the same. On my podcast Nassim discusses “Antifragility” – building a system, even on that works for you on a personal level, where you if you harm your self in some way it becomes stronger. That podcast changed my life He discusses... (Source)

Malcolm GladwellI don’t need to say much here. This book invented an entire genre. Economics was never supposed to be this entertaining. (Source)

Daymond JohnI love newer books like [this book]. (Source)

James Altucher[James Altucher recommended this book on the podcast "The Tim Ferriss Show".] (Source)

Barack ObamaA few months ago, Mr. Obama read “Thinking, Fast and Slow,” by Daniel Kahneman, about how people make decisions — quick, instinctive thinking versus slower, contemplative deliberation. For Mr. Obama, a deliberator in an instinctive business, this may be as instructive as any political science text. (Source)

Bill Gates[On Bill Gates's reading list in 2012.] (Source)

Marc AndreessenCaptivating dive into human decision making, marred by inclusion of several/many? psychology studies that fail to replicate. Will stand as a cautionary tale? (Source)

Barack ObamaAs 2018 draws to a close, I’m continuing a favorite tradition of mine and sharing my year-end lists. It gives me a moment to pause and reflect on the year through the books I found most thought-provoking, inspiring, or just plain loved. It also gives me a chance to highlight talented authors – some who are household names and others who you may not have heard of before. Here’s my best of 2018... (Source)

Bill GatesThis was a breakthrough to me. The framework Hans enunciates is one that took me decades of working in global development to create for myself, and I could have never expressed it in such a clear way. I’m going to try to use this model moving forward. (Source)

Nigel WarburtonIt’s an interesting book, it’s very challenging. It may be over-optimistic. But it does have this startling effect on the readers of challenging widely held assumptions. It’s a plea to look at the empirical data, and not just assume that you know how things are now. (Source)

James AltucherAnd throw in “The Black Swan” and “Fooled by Randomness”. “Fragile” means if you hit something might break. “Resilient” means if you hit something, it will stay the same. On my podcast Nassim discusses “Antifragility” – building a system, even on that works for you on a personal level, where you if you harm your self in some way it becomes stronger. That podcast changed my life He discusses... (Source)

Howard MarksReally about how much randomness there is in our world. (Source)

Anant JainThe five-book series, "Incerto", by Nassim Nicholas Taleb has had a profound impact on how I think about the world. There’s some overlap across the books — but you'll likely find the repetition helpful in retaining the content better. (Source)

Bill Gates[On Bill Gates's reading list in 2011.] (Source)

James AltucherGladwell is not the first person to come up with the 10,000 hour rule. Nor is he the first person to document what it takes to become the best in the world at something. But his stories are so great as he explains these deep concepts. How did the Beatles become the best? Why are professional hockey players born in January, February and March? And so on. (Source)

Cat Williams-TreloarThe books that I've talked the most about with friends and colleagues over the years are the Malcolm Gladwell series of novels. Glorious stories that mix science, behaviours and insight. You can't go wrong with the "The Tipping Point", "Outliers", "Blink" or "David & Goliath". (Source)

James AltucherYou ask about success. To be successful you have to avoid being “fragile” – the idea that if something hurts you, you let collapse completely. You also have to avoid simply being resilient. Bouncing back is not enough. Antifragile is when something tries to hurt you and you come back stronger. That is real life business. That is real life success. Nassim focuses on the economy. But when I read... (Source)

Marvin Liaoeval(ez_write_tag([[250,250],'theceolibrary_com-leader-2','ezslot_7',164,'0','1'])); My list would be (besides the ones I mentioned in answer to the previous question) both business & Fiction/Sci-Fi and ones I personally found helpful to myself. The business books explain just exactly how business, work & investing are in reality & how to think properly & differentiate yourself. On... (Source)

Vlad TenevThe general concept is applicable to many fields beyond biology, for instance finance, economics and monetary policy. (Source)

David SpiegelhalterThis is a general introduction to the history of probability and the way it comes into everyday life. It intersperses the historical development with modern applications, and looks at finance, sport, gambling, lotteries and coincidences. (Source)

Gabriel CoarnaLeonard Mlodinow's "The Drunkarkd's Walk" -more precisely, the section on the "Monty Hall" problem- totally changed how I look-at/think-about probabilities and choices in general; this has impacted almost every real-life choice I've made since I read this book. (Source)

Howard MarksSo good. (Source)

Jason ZweigIn the book, he explores risk at every conceivable level – what it is mathematically and what it is psychologically, how it has played out historically, how people have thought to measure it and also to control it. (Source)

John Lanchesterit’s an absolutely fascinating, for-the-layman account of how humanity mastered risk and came to understand probability. (Source)

Bill GatesI picked this one up after seeing it on a Wall Street Journal list of good books for investors. It was first published in 1954, but it doesn’t feel dated (aside from a few anachronistic examples—it has been a long time since bread cost 5 cents a loaf in the United States). In fact, I’d say it’s more relevant than ever. One chapter shows you how visuals can be used to exaggerate trends and give... (Source)

Tobi LütkeWe all live in Malcolm’s world because the shipping container has been hugely influential in history. (Source)

Jason ZweigThis is a terrific introduction to critical thinking about statistics, for people who haven’t taken a class in statistics. (Source)

Bill GatesAnyone interested in politics may be attracted to Nate Silver’s The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—but Some Don't. Silver is the New York Times columnist who got a lot of attention last fall for predicting—accurately, as it turned out–the results of the U.S. presidential election. This book actually came out before the election, though, and it’s about predictions in many... (Source)

Sheil KapadiaRead the book Superforecasting, had a great conversation with @bcmassey and came up with seven ideas for how NFL teams can try to find small edges during the draft process. Would love to hear feedback on this one. https://t.co/PdN1fKCagl (Source)

Julia Galef[Has] some good advice on how to improve your ability to make accurate predictions. (Source)

Ben HorowitzA book about the dynamics of how large-scale, highly random systems behave. (Source)

Marc AndreessenSkin in the game as conflict of interest, or as attaching one's livelihood to one's speech? Who to listen to, and why. Ideal counterpart to Philip Tetlock's Expert Political Judgment. (Source)

Daniel KahnemanChanged my view of how the world works. (Source)

Roger D. PengThis book is written by a powerhouse of authors in the machine learning community, true authorities in the field. But beyond that, they’re also great writers. (Source)

John KayEssentially, the theme of Malkiel’s book was that you could, in effect, do investing yourself. (Source)

Michael HebenstreitIf you want to get into stock trading or in case you want to become an investor, then I definitely would recommend to read the book I already mentioned and in addition: A Random Walk Down Wall Street by Burton Malkiel. (Source)

Andrew W LoIt’s a wonderful read because it doesn’t presuppose any background knowledge of economics or finance…It’s had so much staying power. It was written in the 1970s, a bestseller when it came out, and it’s still a bestseller now. I recommend it to my MBA students today because it’s just a wonderful introduction to the field of finance. At the same time, it provides some very sensible advice for... (Source)

Michael OkudaEdward Tufte's classic book, The Visual Display of Quantitative Information is a fascinating, surprisingly readable treatise for anyone interested in infographics. When I hired artists for the Star Trek graphics dept, I sometimes asked them to read it.https://t.co/cK4GQqBDxp (Source)

Pedro G FerreiraIt turns out that even simple equations can have such complicated behaviour that, in practice, it’s impossible to predict the outcome, which is described as ‘chaotic’. (Source)

Adam MaloofJames Gleick is a former science writer for the New York Times and in this book Gleick describes the science of chaos, and how complex systems can also be interpreted in terms of simple rules and simple (but interacting) behaviours. (Source)

D.a. Wallach@EricTopol @yudapearl @bschoelkopf @MPI_IS I love @yudapearl 's book so much! Profound, heterodox. (Source)

Kirk Borne.@yudapearl wrote the awesome "Book of Why", but he recommends this fun and less #mathematics-heavy read >> his #AI lecture given in 1999: https://t.co/kNYIoJ8qcY #DataScience #MachineLearning #Statistics #BookofWhy #Causalinference #Bayes https://t.co/CNQlKP8cU3 (Source)

Charles DuhiggThrough wonderful storytelling and sly wit, Annie Duke has crafted the ultimate guide to thinking about risk. We can all learn how to make better decisions by learning from someone who made choices for a living, with millions on the line. (Source)

Marc AndreessenCompact guide to probabilistic domains like poker, or venture capital. Best articulation of "resulting", drawing bad conclusions from confusing process and outcome. Recommend for people operating in the real world. (Source)

Seth GodinBrilliant. Buy ten copies and give one to everyone you work with. It's that good. (Source)

Jonah LehrerThis is one of the most influential books in modern economics. (Source)

Adam RobinsonThis study should be taught at every business school in the country. (Source)

Adam RobinsonThis study should be taught at every business school in the country. (Source)

Mike RoweA good teacher will leave you educated. But a great teacher will leave you curious. Well, Barbara Oakley is a great teacher. Not only does she have a mind for numbers, she has a way with words, and she makes every one of them count (Source)

Bill GatesThe writing is funny, smooth, and accessible -- not what you might expect from a book about math. What Ellenberg has written is ultimately a love letter to math. If the stories he tells add up to a larger lesson, it’s that 'to do mathematics is to be, at once, touched by fire and bound by reason' -- and that there are ways in which we’re all doing math, all the time. (Source)

Auston BunsenI’ve got a few, one book that really impacted me early on as someone coming from a middle-class family was “Rich dad, Poor dad”. Since then I’ve read many books but one that really stands out is “How not to be wrong” by Jordan Ellenberg which really reignited my appetite & appreciation for math. (Source)

Nick GanjuWritten for an audience of people who have historically been intimidated by math [...] and introduces things in a very simple way, and then works up to more complex concepts. (Source)

James Owen WeatherallWhat Mandelbrot realised early on, at the start of the 1960s, was that the kind of assumptions about statistics that everyone was making were wrong. (Source)

Tim @RealscientistsIf you are interested in learning programming, there are lots of great tutorials. For data analysis, R and the R 4 data science book is a great way to go https://t.co/zezYpG0TRL, and for general R syntax, there is the swirl learning package https://t.co/Tzfpnlgo3O /20 (Source)

Nicholas CarrIf Standage’s is a small book focused on a particular technology and moment in time, Gleick’s is extraordinarily broad and sweeping. It’s a very large book, in which he tries – and succeeds in many ways I think – to tell the story of information in human history. Information breaks down into two different things in essence. On the one hand it is messages – things with meaning to human beings –... (Source)

P. D. Mangan@MarquisDeMarche @natstewart5 Great book. (Source)

Sophie ScottIf you were listening to #themathsoflife on today’s @laurenlaverne show and you’d like to know more about how we can misperceive numbers and magnitude, I recommend @JohnAllenPaulos and his brilliant book, Innumeracy. (Source)

Steve Burns@RampCapitalLLC @mjmauboussin I’m reading this now, great book! (Source)

Evan SolomonJust did a short radio essay on risk and quoted your great book Risk: the science and politics of fear re reactions to corona virus. Recommended read to this day! Thanks Dan. https://t.co/7L70b5DYLB (Source)

Nassim Nicholas TalebAs a practitioner of probability, I've had to read many books on the subject. Most are linear combinations of other books and ideas rehashed without real understanding that the idea of probability harks back to the Greek pisteuo (credibility) [and pithanon that led to probabile in latin] and pervaded classical thought. Almost all of these writers made the mistake to think that the ancients were... (Source)

Dan Davies@amoralelite @d_spiegel It's a great book. I thought it was like coming home because I've always tried to avoid calculation due to the dyspraxia and it was just "yes, that's how you think about it" (Source)

Vinod KhoslaThe physics behind biology, cities, economics and companies. Do they grow, scale and die by the same math equations? New insights that are enlightening and delightful. (Source)

Anne DwaneIt does a great job exploring the opportunity for personalization in education, medicine and countless other fields — which will hopefully drive countless other opportunities. (Source)

Eric Weinstein[Eric Weinstein recommended this book on Twitter.] (Source)

Graciela ChichilniskyThis book is by a famous statistician who is now dead. Savage didn’t fall into the trap of DeGroot, who dismissed catastrophic risks. Instead he went to the other extreme. Savage’s approach can focus solely on rare events. So DeGroot underestimates rare events and Savage’s approach (which was very controversial at the time) can underestimate frequent events. That is no good either. (Source)