Statistics Archives

Power-Law Distribution: How It Better Models the World

What is a power-law distribution? How is it useful in describing and predicting events in the real world, which is full of uncertainty? Power-law distribution is a functional relationship between two quantities in which the relationship remains constant no matter the initial size of the quantities. This relationship is useful in describing events and phenomena that can’t be graphed on a bell curve. We’ll cover the basics of power-law distribution and look at how it works to accurately describe the world and account for otherwise unpredictable events.

What Is a Fractal? How They Work in the Real World

What is a fractal? How are fractals useful in representing and predicting relatively unpredictable events? A fractal is a geometric pattern that repeats at different scales. Fractals, unlike pure geometric shapes like triangles or circles, are seen quite frequently in nature. We’ll cover what a fractal is and how it can help us make predictions in a world full of uncertainty.

Grey Swans Explained: Why Prepare for Unlikely Events?

What’s a grey swan? How does it serve as a metaphor for events that aren’t predictable, exactly, but imaginable? A grey swan (alternately, gray swan) is a term for events that can’t be predicted but can be imagined. It can also refer to an event that’s unlikely but possible. The term was popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in the book Black Swan. We’ll cover what a grey swan is, how it fits in with black and white swans, and how to turn black swans grey.

Butterfly Effect Theory Explained: Impact of Small Acts

What is the butterfly effect theory? How is it related to the idea of nonlinearities? How does it explain why we make bad predictions? The butterfly effect theory is the idea that a small change in a nonlinear system can have huge effects in the larger system. This idea was proposed by an MIT meteorologist, who discovered that an infinitesimal change in input parameters can drastically change weather models. We’ll cover what the butterfly effect theory is and how small changes can have large effects.

Non-Scalable: What It Means, Its Effect on Your Job + Pay

What does it mean for something to be “non-scalable”? What does it mean for something to be “scalable”? Can a job be scalable or non-scalable? We’ll cover examples of jobs that are non-scalable and jobs that are scalable to give you a better idea of the benefits of a scalable job.

Extremistan: Why Improbable Events Have a Huge Impact

What is Extremistan? Where is it? Where does the word come from? What elements of our lives fall under the purview of Extremistan? Extremistan is a term coined by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain the randomness and deviations from the mean of most social, man-made aspects of human society. The term was popularized by Taleb’s book The Black Swan. We’ll cover what Extremistan is, how it differs from Mediocristan, what kinds of events and characteristics come from the land of Extremistan, and why Extremistan often makes prediction impossible.

Law of Small Numbers: A Deceptive Cognitive Bias

What is the law of small numbers? How does ignoring it lead to biased decision-making? The law of small numbers is the bias of making generalizations from a small sample size. In truth, the smaller your sample size, the more likely you are to have extreme results. If you’re not aware of this principle, when you have small sample sizes, you may be misled by outliers. We’ll cover two examples of the law of small numbers in action and how to use your awareness of it to make better decisions.

Kahneman’s Prospect Theory: The Ultimate Guide

What is Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman’s prospect theory? How does it explain human behavior? Prospect theory is a theory in economics developed by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman. It says that Utility depends on changes from one’s reference point rather than absolute outcomes. The theory suggests that people don’t always behave rationally. We’ll cover what Kahneman’s prospect theory is, how it works, and how it challenges traditional utility theory.

Regression Toward the Mean: 7 Real-World Examples

What does “regression toward the mean” mean in psychology? How does it apply to everyday life? Regression toward the mean refers to the principle that, over repeated sampling periods, outliers tend to revert to the mean. High performers show disappointing results when they fail to continue delivering; strugglers show sudden improvement. We’ll cover what it means to regress toward the mean in psychology, 7 examples of regression toward the mean, and how to counter biases related to this phenomenon.

Premature Birth: Chances of Baby Survival

A premature birth occurs before 36 weeks and occurs in 12% of pregnancies. Early-term is between 37-38 weeks, and full-term is 39 and beyond. Over the past decades, survival for preterm babies has increased dramatically due to improvements like assisted ventilation (lungs develop later in pregnancy). It’s a marvel that even babies born at 22 weeks still have a shot at survival. What are the specific chances of survival for each week of pregnancy? How likely is a baby to survive at 24 weeks, vs 26 weeks, and 28 weeks?