Shortform Books

Natural Experiments and Economics Economics is not an easy field in which to conduct randomized controlled experiments. Since much of economics focuses on quantities that are very large (national GDP, effects of fiscal policy on employment) and involves the study of individual decisions made by billions of people, it’s rare for economists to be able to test their hypotheses in a lab. For this reason, economists must observe events in the real world that happen create “variable” and “control” groups that can substitute for the classical design of a laboratory experiment. These real world events are called natural experiments. Throughout

As the world has become more specialized and complex, people have come to rely more and more on experts to guide them through major life decisions. This is largely driven by fear of making a wrong decision that might result in financial ruin or even physical harm. As we’ve discussed above, however, experts are hardly neutral arbiters of truth who are selflessly devoted to guiding you through the trials and tribulations of a staggeringly complex world. Rather, they are often self-interested, equally fallible humans who seek to use their superior information to gain an advantage on you. This unequal distribution

The Early Childhood Longitudinal Study (ECLS), launched by the US. Department of Education in the 1990s, measured the academic progress of over 20,000 students as they progressed from kindergarten to the fifth grade, interviewing parents and educators and asking a broad range of questions about the children’s home environment. The study provided an ample resource of data that researchers could use to identify more statistically meaningful relationships between specific parenting tactics and children’s academic outcomes.