Thinking in Bets

Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts

Ranked #14 in Budget, Ranked #19 in Gamblingsee more rankings.

In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck?

Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and...

Reviews and Recommendations

We've comprehensively compiled reviews of Thinking in Bets from the world's leading experts.

Charles Duhigg AuthorThrough wonderful storytelling and sly wit, Annie Duke has crafted the ultimate guide to thinking about risk. We can all learn how to make better decisions by learning from someone who made choices for a living, with millions on the line. (Source)

Marc Andreessen Co-Founder/Andreessen HorowitzCompact guide to probabilistic domains like poker, or venture capital. Best articulation of "resulting", drawing bad conclusions from confusing process and outcome. Recommend for people operating in the real world. (Source)

Seth Godin Author, Marketer, EntrepreneurBrilliant. Buy ten copies and give one to everyone you work with. It's that good. (Source)

Howard Marks The insights Duke offers in this book are incredibly helpful when we contemplate decisions in the face of multiple possible outcomes, and that renders her book enormously applicable to the world of investing. (Source)

Preston Pysh @joshbds We had @AnnieDuke on the show. Her book is incredible. She gave a great interview too! (Source)

Anurag Ramdasan Very counterintuitive insights into decision making and its repercussions. Would highly recommend.

David Heinemeier Hansson Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke applies the thinking of poker decision making to the rest of life. That’s not as stupid of a premise as it sounds. I particularly like the idea of “resulting”, which is to judge the quality of a decision solely by its outcome. Lots of good decisions lead to bad outcomes because it's very rare that even good decisions have 100% chance of success. This draws on a lot of cognitive studies by Kahneman and others that show just how poor our default decision making powers are. But it’s also needlessly dragging. This is one of those books that would have been far... (Source)

Mark W. Yusko If you haven’t bought @AnnieDuke’s book yet, what are you waiting for?! Heard her speak twice last week in Chapel Hill and they were simply two of best talks on Decision Making, Discipline and Strategy I have ever heard. (Source)

The Irrational Investor @AnnieDuke A lot of Howard's latest memo is attributed to @AnnieDuke book, Thinking in Bets. I reviewed this book last year and would say it's a must read for anyone interested in trading and investing. (11/11) (Source)

Alan Eyre A great book! (Source)

Rankings by Category

Thinking in Bets is ranked in the following categories:

Similar Books

If you like Thinking in Bets, check out these similar top-rated books:

Learn: What makes Shortform summaries the best in the world?