#280 Sarah Adams - If China Isn’t the #1 Threat… Then Who Is?
In this episode of the Shawn Ryan Show, Sarah Adams and other experts discuss an emerging terrorist threat to the United States. They outline how terrorist cells, comprised of members from Al Qaeda, ISIS, and other groups, are developing plans targeting various U.S. locations and institutions, including government buildings, civilian areas, and aviation targets. The discussion examines the terrorists' evolving tactics, including their shift away from electronic communications and their methods of avoiding detection.
The experts explore how these groups have managed to establish a presence within the U.S., exploiting vulnerabilities in border security and refugee programs. The conversation covers challenges in counter-terrorism response, particularly regarding information sharing between federal and local agencies, and examines how regional instability in areas like Somalia and Syria has contributed to terrorist groups' expansion and adaptation of their strategies.
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The Imminent Terrorist Plot on the U.S. Homeland
In a compelling discussion, Kaya Henderson, Myles E. Johnson, Sarah Adams, and DeRay Mckesson explore the serious threat of an impending terrorist plot targeting the United States.
Objectives and Operations
The plotters frame their mission as both religious and patriotic, aiming to honor Bin Laden and avenge detained Muslims. Their comprehensive plan includes attacks on multiple fronts: targeting the CIA, FBI, and DOD, potentially staging a Mumbai-style siege on D.C., and attempting to down multiple trans-pacific airliners. The operation involves both Al Qaeda and ISIS, with plans targeting aviation, government buildings, and civilian areas.
Terrorist Cell Structure and Communications
The terrorists have adopted sophisticated strategies to avoid detection, including creating cells with members from multiple groups like Al Qaeda, ISIS, and HTS. Sarah Adams notes that they've abandoned electronic communications in favor of human couriers, making their activities harder to track.
Challenges in Counter-terrorism Response
According to Adams, the FBI's downplaying of the threat has created significant obstacles in information-sharing with local agencies. Despite this federal-level challenge, local law enforcement agencies are actively preparing for potential threats, though they lack crucial information from federal sources.
Infiltration and Detection Issues
Adams reveals that the terrorist presence in the U.S. might be significantly larger than previously thought, potentially reaching 18,000 operatives. The terrorists have successfully exploited vulnerabilities in border security and refugee programs, using tactics like aliases and modified passports to avoid detection. The case of Rahmanuli, who entered the U.S. despite family ties to terrorist groups, exemplifies these vetting failures.
Geopolitical Factors
The podcast discussion highlights how regional instability in places like Somalia, Syria, and the Sahel has enabled terrorist groups to expand their influence. The terrorists have diversified their funding sources and adapted their tactics, including the use of propaganda to sway public opinion. Adams points out that U.S. government funding decisions, such as providing money to the Taliban to combat ISIS, have sometimes inadvertently supported terrorist-linked entities.
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Actionables
- You can enhance your personal security by varying your daily routines to reduce predictability. By changing the times you leave for work, the routes you take, and the places you frequent, you make it harder for anyone with ill intentions to plan around your movements. For example, if you usually grab coffee at the same shop every morning, try visiting different cafes throughout the week.
- Stay informed about local emergency procedures by signing up for community alerts and familiarizing yourself with evacuation routes and shelter locations. Knowing what to do in case of an emergency can save valuable time. You might also download apps that provide real-time alerts and updates about potential threats in your area.
- Support legitimate charities by researching organizations before donating to ensure your contributions don't inadvertently fund harmful groups. Use tools like Charity Navigator or GuideStar to verify the legitimacy and transparency of a charity. When in doubt, opt for well-established charities with a proven track record of responsible fund management.
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The Imminent Terrorist Plot on the U.S. Homeland
Kaya Henderson and Myles E. Johnson, along with Sarah Adams and DeRay Mckesson, discuss the growing concern of a terrorist plot on U.S. soil, emphasizing the significance of understanding the plotters' objectives, the threats posed by diverse terror cells, and the challenges faced by U.S. law enforcement in thwarting potential attacks.
Objectives: Honor Bin Laden, Avenge Detainees, Complete Failed Attacks
The plotters frame their revenge as a religious and patriotic mission. They intend to honor Osama bin Laden, Muslims who were detained by the U.S. military, CIA, or FBI over the past 20 years—telling recruits they were unjustly detained—and to complete failed plots, such as an aviation plot dating back 30 years.
Plotters Frame Revenge as Religious, Patriotic Mission
The terrorist plot aims to strike particularly the CIA, FBI, and the DOD to avenge detainees, potentially with a siege on D.C. similar to Mumbai. Part of the plot involves downing 12 airliners going trans-pacific to the United States, bringing the Bojinka plot to fruition, and includes bombings aided by a historic bomb maker.
Operations Target Aviation, Government, Civilian Areas in U.S
Terrorists target aviation, government buildings, and civilian areas, such as supermarkets, train stations, and more. The plot involves both Al Qaeda and ISIS, focusing on veteran communities and places where people live, work, and play. Operations also target particularly notable figures, with plans that included the assassination of former President Trump.
Terrorists Deploy Operatives Across the U.S. to Execute Plot
Cells composed of members from multiple groups make detection harder. Terrorists use human couriers to communicate, eschewing email or cell phones.
Cells Contain Members From Multiple Groups, Making Detection Harder
The terrorists have restructured cells to include members from different groups, such as Al Qaeda, ISIS, HTS, etc., making it difficult for U.S. agencies to detect them. Faraj al-Hamasi, an al-Qaeda terrorist, was preparing to lead cells in the U.S. A Somali commander, related to a high-ranking member of Al Shabab, is in charge of multiple cells in the U.S., including the cell structure in Louisiana.
Terrorists Communicating Through Couriers, Avoiding Electronic Communications
Communications among terrorists are challenging to intercept as they use human corridors to communicate within the U.S., thus maintaining secrecy about other cel ...
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The Imminent Terrorist Plot on the U.S. Homeland
Additional Materials
Actionables
- You can enhance your personal safety by staying informed about local law enforcement initiatives and supporting their efforts. By following local police department social media accounts or attending community safety meetings, you'll be aware of any specific actions they're taking to prepare for potential threats. This knowledge allows you to be more vigilant in your daily life and to report any suspicious activities you might encounter.
- Develop a habit of observing your surroundings with a focus on emergency preparedness. This means identifying exits and safety protocols when you enter public spaces like supermarkets or train stations. By doing so, you're better prepared to react quickly in an emergency situation, which could be crucial in the event of an unexpected incident.
- Encourage open communication within ...
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Detecting and Preventing Terrorist Infiltration Challenges
Despite facing significant challenges in detecting and preventing terrorist infiltration, detailed operational insights and ongoing concerns reveal critical gaps in the U.S. counterterrorism strategy.
Terrorists Entered U.S. Via Southern Border and Refugee Programs
Government Underestimates Terrorist Presence: 1,000 to 18,000 Operatives
Sarah Adams cites testimony indicating a substantial number of Islamist terrorists, possibly as many as 18,000, reside on U.S. soil. Compared to the operatives involved in past major terrorist attacks, this figure is alarmingly high. This presence is believed to be a strategic setup for future attacks rather than an immediate threat.
Rahmanuli's Story and Related Vetting Failures
Rahmanuli, who hailed from an area with a noticeable terrorist presence, was trained by the CIA and was stationed in Kandahar. Remarkably, despite his brother's significant ties to terrorist groups like ISKP and the TTP, he succeeded in obtaining entry to the United States. This occurrence points to serious vetting failures within U.S. counterterrorism measures.
Terrorists Use Tactics to Avoid Detection, Like Aliases and Obfuscating Identities
Operatives in terrorist training camps frequently use aliases, a tactic that camouflages their true identities and hinders detection efforts. Faraj al-Hamasi, for example, employed a modified Syrian passport to evade apprehension as he sought to lead an attack on U.S. soil. Even after an altercation in Germany, his al-Qaeda association remained undetected due to his alias. Moreover, artifacts such as discarded passports near the U.S. border suggest concerted efforts by terrorists to erase their tracks when attempting to infiltrate undetected.
Internal Rivalries, Lack of Coordination Hamper U.S. Counterterrorism Efforts
FBI Resists Sharing Information With Local Law Enforcement
Adams highlights that the FBI's inability to recognize collaboration among different terrorist factions, such as Al Qaeda and ISIS, is indicative of a broader issue with inter ...
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Detecting and Preventing Terrorist Infiltration Challenges
Additional Materials
Counterarguments
- The estimated number of terrorists in the U.S. is highly variable and may not be accurate; intelligence gathering is complex, and numbers can be inflated or underestimated due to various factors.
- Entry through the southern border and refugee programs is heavily monitored, and many individuals are fleeing violence and persecution, not engaging in terrorism.
- Vetting processes for refugees and immigrants have multiple layers and have been improved over time; while not perfect, they are designed to be thorough and are continuously updated.
- The use of aliases and false documents by terrorists is a known tactic, but U.S. agencies have sophisticated methods to counter such tactics, including biometric screening and international intelligence cooperation.
- Discarded documents near the border could be attributed to various reasons, not necessarily indicative of terrorist infiltration.
- The FBI and local law enforcement have made strides in intelligence sharing, and while challenges remain, there are numerous examples of successful collaboration.
- Recognizing collaboration among terrorist factions is complex, and while there may be gaps, U.S. intelligence agencies have made significant efforts to understand and disrupt these networks.
- Internal rivalries within agencies can sometimes lead to inefficiencies, but they can also foster healthy competition and checks and balances within the intelligen ...
Actionables
- You can enhance your personal safety by learning to identify and report suspicious behavior or documents. Take a basic online course on document verification and familiarize yourself with common signs of falsified documents. If you come across something questionable, report it to the appropriate authorities, such as local law enforcement or the Department of Homeland Security.
- Boost your community's awareness by starting a neighborhood watch program focused on counterterrorism. Collaborate with local law enforcement to provide training sessions on recognizing potential terrorist activities and the importance of discarding sensitive information securely. This grassroots approach can create a network of vigilant citizens who understand the importance of safeguarding their environment.
- Advocate for better communication between law enforcement agencies by wr ...
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Geopolitical Factors Fueling the Growth of Terrorism
The geopolitical landscape, particularly in regions such as the Middle East and Africa, has been central to the expansion and empowerment of various terrorist organizations, as described in the podcast with insights from Sarah Adams and Shawn Ryan.
Instability in Regions Like the Middle East and Africa Allowed Terrorist Groups to Expand Their Reach
Terrorist Groups Gaining Ground In Somalia, Syria, and the Sahel
The conversation highlights the strategic importance of certain locations, like Somaliland, due to its position for trade and military bases, underlining geopolitical interests in the region. It's mentioned that terrorist groups, such as Al-Qaeda, have been expanding their territorial control, taking advantage of the instability in places like Afghanistan, Somalia, and Syria. Adams talks about Al Qaeda in Afghanistan's attempts to take over Panjshir and push out the Tajiks, showing the group's ambition to solidify territories. This reflects a broader trend, as terrorist groups gain control in unstable areas—a reality underscored by the effective encirclement of Mogadishu by Al-Shabaab and the group's control over ports, which contributes to terrorist financing.
The podcast notes that the U.S. government has backed a new government in Syria led by Abu Muhammad al-Jilani, an Al-Qaeda leader, and that this government has been involved in acts of displacement and violence against various groups, including Kurds. This alliance raises questions about U.S. strategic interests and the unintended support of terrorist groups.
Terrorist Groups Exploit Tensions, Adapt Tactics to Advance Agendas
Terrorists Use Propaganda to Sway Public Opinion and Gain Sympathy
The discussion suggests that terrorist groups not only exploit the vulnerabilities of unstable regions but also use tactics like misinformation and propaganda to sway public opinion and gain sympathy. Adams points out the misleading narratives about the number of casualties and other events, indicating that distortion of information acts as a form of propaganda to advance terrorist agendas.
Terrorists Diversifying Funding Sources and Expanding Illicit Networks to Sustain Operations
It's emphasized that terrorist organizations have been diversifying their funding sources and expanding illicit networks to sustain their operations. Examples include the self-sufficiency of JNIM through gold mines and taxation in areas they control, akin to a tax infrastructure under a mafia. Additionally, the re-establishment of Hamas in Afghanistan and their international support shows the ability of these groups to adapt and survive.
The U.S. funding and strategic backing of certain groups for geopolitical reasons, even when aligning with terrorist-linked entities, was pointed out as a concern. The discussion highlights that U.S. funds, like the $47 million per week given to the Taliban to combat ISIS, may be misused due to deceptive operations run by the Taliban, where they claimed to have eliminated ISIS operatives when these operatives never existed.
The podcast claims there is evidence to suggest that the U.S. government has funded, supported, and backed certain ...
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Geopolitical Factors Fueling the Growth of Terrorism
Additional Materials
Counterarguments
- The U.S. government's support for certain groups in conflict zones is often part of a broader strategy to counteract more dangerous threats or stabilize the region, and not necessarily an endorsement of all the actions taken by those groups.
- The complexity of regional politics means that alliances are sometimes made with less-than-ideal partners due to a lack of better alternatives or the need to prioritize one strategic goal over another.
- Terrorist groups may not be as unified or strategically sophisticated as suggested; there can be significant internal divisions and opportunistic behavior that undermine their long-term goals and effectiveness.
- The effectiveness of terrorist propaganda is difficult to measure, and while it may have some impact, the majority of people in affected regions do not support terrorism and are often the victims of such groups.
- The claim that the U.S. government has funded deceptive campaigns or that terrorist groups have successfully shifted blame onto the U.S. government may be overstated or lack context, as these assertions could be part of disinformation campaigns themselves.
- The narrative that the U.S. abandoned Kurdish allies is more complex, involving regional pressures, international diplomacy, and shifting military priorities, which may not be fully captured in the discussion.
- The assertion that terrorist groups are running complex operations and adapting across generations ...
Actionables
- You can enhance your critical thinking skills by practicing the evaluation of news sources, especially when they report on conflict areas. Start by identifying articles covering regions like the Middle East and Africa, and cross-reference the information with multiple sources, including international news outlets and local reports when available. This will help you discern misinformation and understand the complexities of regional conflicts, which can lead to a more informed perspective on global issues.
- Engage in ethical consumerism by researching the origins of products you buy, focusing on those that might be sourced from conflict zones. For example, when purchasing jewelry or electronics, investigate whether the gold or minerals come from areas controlled by terrorist groups. Choose products certified by organizations that promote conflict-free sourcing, thereby reducing financial support for groups that exploit unstable re ...
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