Book SummaryThe Precipice, by Toby Ord

1-Page Summary1-Page Book Summary of The Precipice

The idea of apocalypse has fascinated humans for centuries, appearing in everything from ancient texts to modern day movies. However, in The Precipice (2020), Toby Ord argues that the idea of a species-ending event occurring is no longer just an entertaining story—it’s a real possibility. Humanity has reached a point where our actions (like pollution) and technologies (like nuclear weapons) pose a serious risk to our survival. Ord argues that if we want our species to survive and thrive, we must act now—understand the risks we face and take action to prevent, mitigate, and endure them. If we succeed, we could achieve an idyllic future of...

The Precipice Summary Part 1: The Potential Future of Humanity

Ord believes that humanity’s potential is enormous—enough to end disease, poverty, and injustice if we can harness it correctly. He believes that, although we’re in our infancy as a species, our advances and achievements are impressive: We’ve drastically increased the average lifespan and literacy rate and eliminated extreme poverty for most of the population. Adding to this, humanity has only been around for a fraction of the time that the Earth will be viable for life—if we continue to evolve for the better, the future will be bright.

(Shortform note: In Sapiens, Yuval Noah Harrari reiterates the amazing progress humans have made in their short time on earth. However, he warns that if humans further evolve by engineering our bodies and DNA (which he calls intelligent design) rather than through natural selection, we’ll create major inequality. The rich and powerful who gain access to technology like biological, cyborg, and inorganic life engineering or DNA mapping will be objectively superior to the rest of the species. To avoid this fate, Harrari makes the same recommendation...

The Precipice Summary Part 2: The Risks We Face

Ord explains that to understand the dire state we’re in, we must understand the existential catastrophes we could face. There are two main types: Natural catastrophes such as asteroids hitting the earth and volcanoes erupting, and anthropogenic catastrophes—events that human actions have led to such as floods due to climate change. On top of this, Ord says we also need to understand potential future risks—catastrophes that haven’t yet emerged as a threat, but might in the future.

In this section, we’ll discuss the natural, anthropogenic, and future threats Ord presents.

Potential Natural Catastrophes

Ord explains that there are three main natural risks: asteroids, stellar explosions, and supervolcanic eruptions. While the chances of any of these catastrophes occurring is much lower than the risk of a man-made catastrophe, it’s important to understand them because their occurrence is completely out of our control—human actions can’t cause them, and human actions can’t prevent them. We can only prepare for them through further research.

Extraterrestrial Risks: Asteroids and Stellar Explosions

Ord addresses two major extraterrestrial risks—asteroids and...

The Precipice Summary Part 3: Preventing Existential Catastrophes

Now that we understand the risks we face, Ord explains that we need to employ strategies to prevent them from materializing. In this section, we’ll explain Ord’s strategy for understanding the development of existential risks and his ideas about how humanity can take steps toward not only preventing them, but ensuring we reach our full potential.

The Development of Existential Risks

Ord explains that the first step in preventing existential risks is understanding their stages of development so we can intervene. There are three stages of an existential threat: initiation, growth, and completion. Initiation is the start of the issue—the result of either natural or anthropogenic causes. Growth is the means by which the problem scales in size (becoming a global problem). Completion refers to how, exactly, the problem results in extinction or permanent limitation of human potential—for example, by famine and population reduction.

To prevent initiation, we need to consider potential risks and their underlying causes—natural or anthropogenic—so we can take actions. For example, we would want to prevent another world war because that would greatly increase the potential...

Shortform Exercise: Reflect on Our Existential Risk

Ord says that a species-ending event poses a genuine threat to humanity. In this exercise, you’ll consider this possibility and reflect on the actions you could take..

Do you agree with Ord that humanity is on the precipice of an existential crisis? Why or why not?