This section examines instances where overlooking crucial information resulted in catastrophic consequences. Bazerman highlights our tendency to overlook gradual changes and our increasing commitment to strategies that fail to produce outcomes, which may leave us blind to impending catastrophes.
Bazerman argues that disastrous occurrences often happen not due to a lack of information, but because the readily available information goes unnoticed or is not adequately acted upon. He illustrates this point with several high-profile disasters:
Bazerman underscores the alarming potential for the 9/11 attacks to have been foreseen. Indications of intensifying terrorist actions, including the 1993 bombing of a major New York landmark, the attempted takeover of a French airline's plane in 1994, and the 1994 conspiracy to seize control of twelve American airplanes, were apparent to United States officials. Despite knowing the potential dangers, the government failed to implement adequate security protocols, allowing the attack to happen. Bazerman, in collaboration with Michael Watkins, characterizes these situations as foreseeable emergencies, given the plentiful data at hand, yet leaders fail to take preventive measures. The failure to fully grasp the seriousness of the threat and the insufficient focus on preventative measures, regrettably, led to the loss of thousands of lives.
The catastrophe of the Challenger spacecraft serves as a stark example of the tragic consequences that can arise when important information is overlooked. Bazerman highlights the engineers' recognition of a correlation where cooler launch conditions were associated with a higher incidence of O-ring malfunctions in earlier missions. However, they failed to consider the temperature readings from successful launches, which indicated a significant increase in the risk of catastrophic failure when the temperature dropped below sixty-five degrees Fahrenheit. Individuals with specialized expertise, like NASA staff, may occasionally overlook the proactive gathering of crucial information necessary for informed decision-making. The limited perception regrettably resulted in the tragic loss of seven astronauts' lives.
Bazerman examines the failure of the auditing firm Arthur Andersen to detect the widespread fraud occurring at Enron. The auditing committee, upon being alerted to possible questionable accounting practices, chose not to delve further, accepting the information as given without examining its completeness. Auditors' desire to satisfy their clients, along with a deficiency in thorough examination, permitted Enron to perpetuate its deceitful practices for an extended period. Bazerman argues that the Enron board's failure to recognize and act upon early indicators of trouble is a profound...
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This section examines how competing interests and organizational cultures can create an environment where it becomes the norm to disregard crucial information. Bazerman confronts the widespread norms in various sectors that lead to the neglect of ethical breaches, thus putting at risk the essential goals these industries are meant to uphold.
Bazerman argues that conflicts of interest present a significant barrier to noticing, as they create a powerful incentive to overlook inconvenient information. He emphasizes the significance of this matter within two key sectors:
The auditing sector is characterized by deep-seated routines that undermine true independence, a situation noted by Bazerman. Bazerman argues that auditors are naturally at odds with impartiality due to their economic dependence on pleasing clients, sustaining long-term associations, and seeking additional income via consulting offerings. The incentives they receive undermine their neutrality,...
This section delves into cognitive biases, the mental shortcuts we employ to streamline intricate scenarios, which can frequently result in consistent misjudgments and hinder our capacity to discern critical nuances. Bazerman illustrates how our inherent tendencies often result in areas of oversight, hindering our ability to properly evaluate risks and foresee upcoming challenges.
Bazerman explores the concept that while a positive outlook can be advantageous in certain situations, it can also substantially impede our capacity to recognize looming dangers and properly brace for emergencies. He underscores specific manifestations of this inclination:
Bazerman argues that overconfidence in our decision-making skills might lead us to overlook potential dangers and not acknowledge possible problems. Max H. Bazerman illustrates this idea by presenting an exercise where leaders are asked to give estimates for uncertain figures within 98% confidence intervals, but they often exaggerate their...
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This part emphasizes the importance of considering not only the perspectives but also the motivations of others when making decisions. Bazerman underscores the significance of understanding various viewpoints and anticipating the behavior of others as crucial measures for recognizing subtle nuances and avoiding predictable mistakes.
Bazerman emphasizes the importance of broadening one's perspective to understand the driving forces behind the behaviors of other involved parties.
Bazerman illustrates through the "Acquiring a Company" scenario that failing to consider the seller's incentives can lead to unwise acquisition choices. In such cases, the organization that takes over the target company stands to gain, yet it is expected that any sum paid above zero will lead to a negative return for the acquiring entity. A company that comprehends its true value might be inclined to accept an offer that falls short of being optimal. Bazerman emphasizes the importance of recognizing the decision of the other party to...
This section of the book explores how we often fail to consider the wider consequences of our decisions, neglecting the potential unintended effects and collateral harm that may result from choices that initially seem innocuous. Bazerman underscores the necessity for leaders to hold every person accountable, whether they have a direct or indirect connection, for their role in any negative outcomes, by considering the broader impact of the actions taken by their respective institutions.
The book demonstrates how policies within organizations that appear innocuous can have substantial consequences.
Bazerman scrutinizes the unforeseen outcomes stemming from Walmart's forceful pursuit of reduced expenses, which compelled suppliers to agree to compromises that put their product safety at risk. He references the case where the manufacturer of Blitz gas cans, under the pressure to minimize expenses, chose not to include safety mechanisms, which led to a significant number of injuries and...
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Jerry McPheeThis segment emphasizes the duty of leaders to avert foreseeable crises by identifying, ranking, and proactively tackling imminent threats. Bazerman argues that leadership demands anticipating potential problems, overcoming cognitive biases and organizational inertia, and confronting political barriers that impede effective action.
Bazerman underscores the critical role of leaders in remaining vigilant to spot potential risks, including those that may appear remote or improbable.
Bazerman contends that to foresee and tackle inevitable unforeseen events effectively, leaders must surmount their inherent cognitive biases and inclination towards immediate concerns. Individuals must consciously counteract their innate inclination to undervalue future outcomes, minimize potential hazards, and refrain from relying solely on readily available information. Bazerman recommends employing methods such as evaluating the trade-offs and potential outcomes to mitigate these biases and focus on enduring sustainability rather than short-term benefits.
The Power of Noticing