Book SummaryThe Coming Wave, by Mustafa Suleyman

1-Page Summary1-Page Book Summary of The Coming Wave

In The Coming Wave (2023), Mustafa Suleyman argues that we’re on the brink of a technological revolution that will fundamentally reshape our world. He contends that artificial intelligence and synthetic biology are converging to create a new era of “omni-use” technologies—tools that can be adapted for a wide range of purposes, both beneficial and harmful. These technologies are advancing rapidly, becoming more powerful and accessible at an unprecedented pace. Suleyman believes this surge will have profound systemic impacts, including a massive redistribution of power, the potential destabilization of nation-states, and the creation of new existential risks. He argues that we must develop a multifaceted approach...

The Coming Wave Summary The Characteristics of the Impending Surge

We will now define the core technologies that constitute the forthcoming surge and discuss the factors driving their acceleration and proliferation.

Defining the Core Technologies

Suleyman believes the next wave of technology is founded on artificial intelligence and biological synthesis. These technologies function at both grand and granular levels, addressing intelligence and life, two foundational properties of our world. Technology is going through a transformation, evolving from a mere tool to something that can engineer life and surpass human intelligence. AI allows us to replicate human capabilities such as speech, language, perception, and reasoning, while breakthroughs in synthetic biology make it possible to sequence, alter, and print DNA.

(Shortform note: In The Information, James Gleick argues that the central intellectual revolution of the twentieth century was the recognition that information is a physical quantity. This insight allowed scientists to understand genes, neurons, and digital circuits as devices for encoding, storing, and transmitting information. Once heredity and thought were both recast...

The Coming Wave Summary The Control Challenge and Potential Responses

Now we’ll describe the threat landscape and explore strategies for containment.

The Threat Landscape

Suleyman asserts that emerging technologies pose significant threats to global stability. AI and synthetic biology could destabilize or completely change the geopolitical balance of power. They create opportunities for AI-powered cyberattacks, automated wars, and engineered pandemics. While the odds of these events are low, their potential consequences are enormous and demand urgent attention. Certain nations will respond to these risks by becoming authoritarian and surveilling citizens to limit the influence of these new forces. Others will respond with restrictions, disincentives, and suspensions.

(Shortform note: In “The Techno-Optimist Manifesto,” the venture capitalist Marc Andreessen argues that emerging technologies are more likely to enhance global stability than undermine it. He contends that technological progress, especially in areas like AI, is the central driver of sustained prosperity, human flourishing, and liberal freedom worldwide, and that advancing these technologies is how we secure a more peaceful and...

Shortform Exercise: The Power and Impact of Synthetic Biology

Suleyman highlights synthetic biology as a transformative general-purpose technology that allows for the manipulation of life's genetic code. This has far-reaching implications for technology and society.

How might the ability to synthesize DNA transform various industries, such as healthcare, agriculture, or energy?