With the proliferation of misinformation online, in the news, and even in academia, the modern world is replete with bullshit—a phenomenon that professors Carl T. Bergstrom and Jevin D. West define as the use of misleading evidence to persuade an audience. But we aren’t defenseless against this bullshit, they argue. On the contrary, in their 2020 book, Calling Bullshit, Bergstrom and West contend that anyone can learn how to detect and refute bullshit in its many forms.
Bergstrom and West’s complementary backgrounds are evident throughout Calling Bullshit. Bergstrom’s expertise in evolutionary biology lends him insight into the ways that bullshit can...
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Bergstrom and West note that to recognize specific forms of bullshit, you have to understand what bullshit is more generally. To that end, we’ll begin by discussing their general thesis about the nature of bullshit and outlining why bullshit is so pervasive online and in the news.
Bergstrom and West define bullshit as the use of misleading evidence, without regard for the truth, to sway an audience by confusing or overwhelming them.
This definition, they point out, has two key aspects. First, the bullshitter appeals to evidence that obscures the truth, rather than illuminating it. For example, this might involve using bombastic language that makes it difficult for an audience to follow the argument. Alternatively, this could involve using statistics or data taken out of context—a topic we’ll return to later in this guide.
(Shortform note: Although he wouldn’t have recognized the term “bullshit,” the Greek philosopher Plato shared Bergstrom and West’s disdain for obscuring the truth—Plato harshly criticized the discipline of rhetoric in the...
Historically, bullshit was often transmitted via rhetorical devices like hyperbole, ad hominem attacks, and false analogies. However, Bergstrom and West point out that the proliferation of data-based arguments in contemporary society has given rise to new variants of bullshit that rely heavily on data analytics. In this section, we’ll outline three such types of bullshit—bullshit arising from improper data collection, bullshit arising from improper data interpretation, and bullshit arising in science and big data in particular.
According to Bergstrom and West, bullshit often arises when data-based arguments rely on data that was itself flawed. Specifically, they argue that selection bias can lead to bullshit because it justifies faulty conclusions based on unrepresentative samples.
Selection bias, Bergstrom and West explain, occurs whenever the population sampled for a research study doesn’t represent the broader population that you’re interested in. For example, if you wanted to know how the US population would vote in the 2024 election, you could commit selection bias by only polling (say) senior citizens. And...
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Although the modern world is rife with bullshit, we aren’t defenseless against it. On the contrary, Bergstrom and West argue that several strategies can help us recognize and refute bullshit. In this section, we’ll examine these strategies in depth, first focusing on ways to identify bullshit before concluding with ways to call bullshit.
We’ll focus on three of Bergstrom and West’s key strategies for identifying bullshit: Evaluate information sources, scrutinize claims that are “too good to be true,” and be wary of confirmation bias.
Bergstrom and West explain that we should assess information sources by asking who the information is coming from and what their possible motivations are. After all, many information sources have ulterior motives, meaning they’re more likely to use bullshit to support their aims. For example, in light of conclusive evidence linking smoking to lung cancer in the 1950s, the tobacco industry conducted a marketing campaign that sought to undermine this scientific consensus (and thus retain their massive...
Bergstrom and West provide an array of strategies both for identifying and calling bullshit. In this exercise, practice implementing these strategies to find and refute bullshit online and in the news.
Think about some recent news stories you’ve encountered that seem likely to contain bullshit. Describe some of the specific claims you think might be bullshit.
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