Podcasts > The Game w/ Alex Hormozi > Throwback: Expect Uncertainty | Ep 929

Throwback: Expect Uncertainty | Ep 929

By Alex Hormozi

In this episode of The Game, Alex Hormozi explores the relationship between uncertainty and entrepreneurship. He examines how business owners can develop resilience by accepting that challenges are temporary, and presents a strategic framework for making decisions about resource allocation across three key areas: growth, profitability, and risk reduction.

The episode also addresses practical considerations for scaling businesses at different stages of growth. Hormozi outlines when businesses should focus on expansion versus optimization, explains the hidden costs of organizational changes, and discusses the importance of maintaining stability while planning for future growth. His insights help business owners understand when to embrace change and when to maintain existing systems.

Listen to the original

Throwback: Expect Uncertainty | Ep 929

This is a preview of the Shortform summary of the Jul 25, 2025 episode of the The Game w/ Alex Hormozi

Sign up for Shortform to access the whole episode summary along with additional materials like counterarguments and context.

Throwback: Expect Uncertainty | Ep 929

1-Page Summary

Embracing and Managing Uncertainty in Entrepreneurship

Hormozi discusses how entrepreneurship, while inherently uncertain and stressful, can lead to growth and resilience. He points to the stock market's history over the past 15 years, noting that despite overall growth, significant downturns and crises are common but often forgotten. By accepting that challenges will either resolve themselves or become irrelevant, entrepreneurs can work towards a better future with less anxiety about what might come next.

A Framework for Strategic Decision-Making and Resource Allocation

According to Hormozi, effective strategy boils down to prioritizing limited resources among unlimited options. He presents a framework centered on three core business objectives: growth, profitability, and risk reduction. When evaluating initiatives, Hormozi recommends assessing their potential impact on customer acquisition, lifetime value, and risk reduction, while carefully weighing benefits against implementation costs and disruptions.

Scaling a Small Business Through Addition vs. Optimization

For businesses earning under $3 million annually, Hormozi suggests focusing on expansion rather than optimization. He recommends simple solutions like adding more salespeople to an existing successful system. However, he notes that larger businesses benefit more from improving efficiency. Importantly, Hormozi warns that organizational changes typically result in a 20% performance decrease, meaning any proposed change should promise benefits exceeding this threshold.

Balancing Change and Stability In a Growing Business

While change is tempting, Hormozi emphasizes the importance of resisting constant tweaking in pursuit of perfection. He advocates for accepting that some aspects of business will always be imperfect, arguing that stability often yields better results than perpetual change. As organizations grow, Hormozi suggests proactively recognizing when current teams and systems may become inadequate, and planning accordingly for higher standards in both people and processes.

1-Page Summary

Additional Materials

Counterarguments

  • While embracing uncertainty can lead to growth and resilience, it can also lead to decision paralysis if not managed properly.
  • Some challenges in entrepreneurship may not resolve themselves and could require proactive measures to prevent long-term negative impacts.
  • Prioritizing limited resources among unlimited options is crucial, but the process can be biased by the decision-maker's perspective, potentially overlooking innovative or unconventional opportunities.
  • The strategic framework focusing on growth, profitability, and risk reduction is solid, but it may not account for other factors like social impact, employee well-being, and long-term sustainability.
  • Evaluating initiatives based on customer acquisition and lifetime value is important, but it may lead to short-term thinking and neglect the importance of product innovation and quality.
  • The recommendation for small businesses to focus on expansion rather than optimization might not be suitable for all industries or markets, where quality and niche specialization could be more strategic.
  • The assertion that larger businesses benefit more from improving efficiency overlooks the fact that even large businesses need to balance efficiency with adaptability to remain competitive.
  • The claim that organizational changes result in a 20% performance decrease is a generalization and may not apply to all types of changes or organizations.
  • While stability can yield better results than perpetual change, too much stability can lead to stagnation and a lack of innovation.
  • Recognizing when teams and systems become inadequate is important, but the process of upgrading or changing them can be disruptive and may not always lead to the desired improvements.

Get access to the context and additional materials

So you can understand the full picture and form your own opinion.
Get access for free
Throwback: Expect Uncertainty | Ep 929

Embracing and Managing Uncertainty in Entrepreneurship

Entrepreneurship is inherently filled with uncertainties and stresses. However, learning to embrace this unpredictability can lead to growth, resilience, and ultimately a potentially brighter future.

Entrepreneurship: Stressful due to Uncertainty, but Future Often Better Than Past

Despite Growth, Stock Market Sees Significant, Often Forgotten Declines and Crises

Hormozi looks back at the last 15 years of the stock market, noting its growth but also highlighting the significant downturns that are often overlooked. He remembers the substantial dip of 20% in 2011, the tumultuous times in 2016, and the profound economic challenges that the world faced in 2020. These examples illustrate how uncertainty is woven into the fabric of investment and, by extension, entrepreneurship.

Challenges in Entrepreneurship: Embracing Unpredictability For a Better Future

In his talk, Hormozi delves into the nature of uncertainty in entrepreneurship and posits that current challenges will either be resolved or culminate in death, which is the ultimate resolution. He suggests that by accepting this high degree of unpredictability, entrepreneurs can work towards a better future while being less encumbered by the stress of what might happen next.

Embracing Uncertainty Builds Hope and Resilience For Entrepreneurs

No Need to Worry, Whether Future Resolves Favorably or Worst Happens

Hormozi provides a somewhat stoic take on handling uncertainty—by contemplating that future uncertainties will one way or another resolve themselves, or become irrelevant upon one's death, he eliminates the need for unwarranted worry. He argues for a mindset where concern about future uncertain ...

Here’s what you’ll find in our full summary

Registered users get access to the Full Podcast Summary and Additional Materials. It’s easy and free!
Start your free trial today

Embracing and Managing Uncertainty in Entrepreneurship

Additional Materials

Clarifications

  • Hormozi's viewpoints on uncertainty in entrepreneurship emphasize accepting unpredictability as a natural part of the entrepreneurial journey. He suggests that by embracing uncertainty, entrepreneurs can focus on building a better future without being overly burdened by worries about what may come. His perspective encourages a mindset that acknowledges the imperfections of the past and uses them to foster a realistic and hopeful approach to current entrepreneurial endeavors.
  • The connection between stock market history and entrepreneurship lies in how market fluctuations and economic challenges impact entrepreneurial ventures, as entrepreneurs often rely on the financial market for funding, investment opportunities, and overall economic stability. Understanding the historical context of market downturns and crises can help entrepreneurs navigate uncertainties and make informed decisions to mitigate risks and seize opportunities for growth. By recognizing the intertwined nature of entrepreneurship and the stock market, entrepreneurs can adapt their strategies to thrive in dynamic and unpredictable business environments. Hormozi's discussion highlights how acknowledging the historical volatility of the stock market can provide valuable insights for entrepreneurs in managing uncertainty and building resilience in their ventures.
  • In entrepreneurship, uncertainty can lead to different outcomes: eithe ...

Counterarguments

  • While embracing uncertainty can foster resilience, it is also important for entrepreneurs to engage in risk management and contingency planning to mitigate potential negative outcomes.
  • The idea that all uncertainties will resolve themselves may lead to a passive approach, whereas proactive strategies and interventions can often influence outcomes in entrepreneurship.
  • The notion that worrying about the future is futile might be overly simplistic, as some level of concern can be a motivating factor for entrepreneurs to prepare and adapt.
  • Reflecting on past imperfections is valuable, but it is also important to learn from past successes and understand the factors that contributed to them.
  • The concept that failure is an ultimate resolution may be too fatalistic; many entrepreneurs experience failure as a stepping stone to later success.
  • The assertion that the futu ...

Get access to the context and additional materials

So you can understand the full picture and form your own opinion.
Get access for free
Throwback: Expect Uncertainty | Ep 929

A Framework for Strategic Decision-Making and Resource Allocation

Alex Hormozi presents a straightforward framework for making strategic decisions and allocating resources in business effectively, with a focus on achieving the highest returns.

Strategy: Prioritizing Limited Resources Against Unlimited Options

Key Strategies for Allocating Resources: Growth, Profitability, Risk Reduction

Hormozi defines strategy as the art of prioritizing limited resources against an array of unlimited options. The fastest-moving businesses, he notes, excel at allocating their resources to the options that yield the highest returns. The simple framework that Hormozi introduces is centered around three core business objectives: growth, profitability, and risk reduction. These objectives are designed to enhance the value of a company by securing a consistent inflow of valuable customers while ensuring future certainty.

Evaluating Initiatives Against Core Business Objectives

When selecting initiatives from a long list of possibilities, it's essential that they align properly with desired key outcomes. Hormozi emphasizes the need for each initiative to be carefully evaluated to determine the actions to be taken for effective strategic planning. This systematic approach involves weighing the contributions of initiatives toward customer acquisition, improving lifetime customer value, and reducing risk. By teaching teams to utilize this framework, leaders can enhance the clarity of their decision-making processes.

Systematic Approach To Evaluating and Prioritizing Initiatives

Assessing Initiatives' Impact on Customer Acquisition, Lifetime Value, and Risk Reduction

Hormozi advises evaluating how each proposed initiative, like a website redesign, aligns with the objectives of growing the customer base, improving profits per customer, and minimizing risk. He suggests vetting each initiative by assessing whether it has the potential to positively impact customer acquisition and increase the customers' lifetime value.

Evaluating Initiative Benefits vs. Imple ...

Here’s what you’ll find in our full summary

Registered users get access to the Full Podcast Summary and Additional Materials. It’s easy and free!
Start your free trial today

A Framework for Strategic Decision-Making and Resource Allocation

Additional Materials

Counterarguments

  • The framework may oversimplify complex decision-making processes by focusing primarily on three core objectives, potentially overlooking other critical factors such as company culture, employee well-being, and long-term sustainability.
  • Prioritizing initiatives based on the highest returns might lead to short-term gains at the expense of long-term growth and innovation, which can be harder to measure but equally important.
  • The emphasis on profitability and risk reduction could discourage investment in experimental or innovative projects that do not have immediate or guaranteed returns but could be essential for staying ahead in a rapidly changing market.
  • The framework assumes a level of predictability in assessing the impact of initiatives on customer acquisition and lifetime value, which may not account for the dynamic and often unpredictable nature of consumer behavior.
  • The cost and disruption of implementing new initiatives might be underestimated, especially when it comes to the human and cultural costs within an organization.
  • The framework might not be universally applicable across different industries or business models, particularly those that ar ...

Actionables

  • You can create a personal decision matrix to evaluate daily choices by scoring them on growth, profitability, and risk. For instance, when deciding whether to take on a freelance project, assign scores to the project's potential for income (profitability), skill development (growth), and financial stability (risk reduction). Choose the project with the highest combined score that aligns with your personal goals.
  • Develop a habit of conducting weekly personal audits where you assess how your activities contribute to your long-term objectives. During these audits, ask yourself questions like "Did this week's activities help me move towards my financial, educational, or career goals?" and "What can I change next week to better utilize my time and resources?"
  • Implement a 'swap analys ...

Get access to the context and additional materials

So you can understand the full picture and form your own opinion.
Get access for free
Throwback: Expect Uncertainty | Ep 929

Scaling a Small Business Through Addition vs. Optimization

Alex Hormozi examines strategies for growth in small businesses, arguing that expansion generally outperforms process optimization in smaller operations, while larger ones can benefit from increasing efficiency.

For Small Businesses, Growth Relies On Expanding What's Already Working

Hormozi discusses effective strategies for scaling small businesses.

Expanding a Sales Team: Lower Risk, Higher Return Than Process Optimization

For businesses earning less than $3 million annually, Hormozi suggests that the key to growth is to expand what is already working. He recommends adding more salespeople rather than optimizing current processes, as doing so carries less risk and promises potentially higher returns. Hormozi exemplifies this by mentioning that a business with a single salesperson could potentially double their sales by simply doubling their sales team.

Larger Businesses Can Optimize Efficiency Better

As the business grows and scales, Hormozi notes, tolerance for mediocrity decreases, and the focus may shift towards optimizing current processes. Larger businesses are typically better positioned to improve efficiency due to their increased resources and the diminishing returns of simply adding more personnel.

Recognizing Organizational Change Risks and Costs

Hormozi brings attention to the decrease in performance that often follows organizati ...

Here’s what you’ll find in our full summary

Registered users get access to the Full Podcast Summary and Additional Materials. It’s easy and free!
Start your free trial today

Scaling a Small Business Through Addition vs. Optimization

Additional Materials

Clarifications

  • In small businesses, expansion involves growing by adding more resources like salespeople, while optimization focuses on improving existing processes for efficiency. Expansion is often favored in smaller operations as it can lead to higher returns with lower risk, especially when what's already working is scaled up. Optimization becomes more relevant in larger businesses with more resources, where fine-tuning processes can yield significant efficiency gains.
  • Adding more salespeople for businesses earning less than $3 million annually is recommended because it can help in expanding the customer base and increasing sales more effectively than optimizing existing processes. This approach is suggested as a lower-risk strategy with the potential for higher returns compared to focusing solely on process optimization. By increasing the sales team, smaller businesses can leverage human resources to drive growth and revenue, especially when the current processes are already showing some level of success.
  • In larger businesses, optimizing efficiency becomes more feasible due to increased resources and the diminishing returns of solely adding more personnel. As companies grow, they often have more capital to invest in technology, automation, and specialized roles to streamline operations. This allows them to fine-tune processes, eliminate bottlenecks, and improve overall productivity. Additionally, larger organizations can afford to dedicate teams or departments specifically focused on process improvement, leveraging economies of scale to drive efficiency gains.
  • Organizational changes often lead to a temporary decrease in performance, typically around 20%. This decline is a common phenomenon observed when businesses undergo significant transitions. It highlights the adjustment period required for empl ...

Counterarguments

  • While expanding sales teams can lead to increased revenue, it may not always be sustainable or effective if the underlying business model or product has limitations or if market saturation is reached.
  • Process optimization can sometimes yield significant improvements in profitability and customer satisfaction, even for small businesses, and should not be overlooked.
  • Adding more salespeople without improving processes can lead to inefficiencies and increased costs that may not be offset by the additional revenue generated.
  • Larger businesses may still find growth through expansion in new markets or products, not just through efficiency optimization.
  • The 20% performance decrease from organizational changes is a generalization and may not apply uniformly across all types of changes or businesses.
  • Some changes, particularly those involving technology or market adaptation, may be necessary despite not meeting the 20% improvement threshold, as they co ...

Get access to the context and additional materials

So you can understand the full picture and form your own opinion.
Get access for free
Throwback: Expect Uncertainty | Ep 929

Balancing Change and Stability In a Growing Business

Hormozi recognizes the delicate balance between change and stability necessary to foster a growing business.

Resisting the Urge to Tinker For Perfection

Change is a constant temptation in business, but Hormozi stresses the importance of resisting the urge to constantly tweak and alter processes in the pursuit of perfection.

Accepting Imperfection: Some Things Will Always Be "Fucked"

He readily accepts that his business will never be perfect. With hindsight, Hormozi often sees things from the previous day he wishes he could change but has ultimately come to the conclusion that some things will always be flawed—or in his words, "fucked"—and that's an acceptable aspect of business.

Stability and Consistency Trump Constant Improvements

Hormozi has learned that constantly chasing better methods can sometimes backfire, resulting in a decline in performance because of the disruptions that come with change. Instead, he posits that stability and consistency are more beneficial to a business than endless changes. By embracing stability, a business might actually perform better than if it were in a perpetual state of flux.

Raising Standards For People and Processes as the Organization Grows

As a company expands, the ability to adapt becomes crucial. Hormozi discusses the need to elevate company standards in response to growth.

Anticipating Effective Teams and Systems Becoming Inadequate Over Time

Hormozi indicates the need to anticipate the future inadequacies of the current team and systems. He understands that the organization's growing demands will eventually surpass what his current team can offer, implying that it's necessary to seek out new hires with higher standards.

He also a ...

Here’s what you’ll find in our full summary

Registered users get access to the Full Podcast Summary and Additional Materials. It’s easy and free!
Start your free trial today

Balancing Change and Stability In a Growing Business

Additional Materials

Counterarguments

  • While stability is important, too much resistance to change can lead to stagnation and may prevent a business from adapting to new market conditions or technological advancements.
  • The pursuit of perfection, though often unattainable, can drive innovation and continuous improvement, which are critical in a competitive business environment.
  • Accepting imperfection does not mean complacency; it's important to distinguish between what is acceptably imperfect and what requires immediate attention to maintain quality and customer satisfaction.
  • Constant improvements, when strategically implemented, can lead to incremental gains that compound over time, potentially giving a business a competitive edge.
  • Raising standards for people and processes is important, but it must be balanced with the risk of overburdening employees or creating an overly bureaucratic and inflexible organization.
  • Anticipa ...

Actionables

  • You can create a "change budget" to limit how often you alter your business processes. Set a monthly or quarterly quota for the number of changes you can make, ensuring you focus on the most impactful ones and maintain stability. For example, if you run a small online store, you might decide you'll only make one significant change to your operations each quarter, whether it's updating your website design or changing your shipping provider.
  • Establish a "future-proofing" session with your team where you collectively brainstorm potential challenges your business might face as it grows. This can be a quarterly meeting where you identify areas that are likely to need improvement and create a proactive plan. For instance, if you anticipate a surge in customer inquiries, you might plan to train additional staff in customer service skills or explore automated chat solutions before the need becomes critical.
  • Develop a personal routine to enhance your skills in anticipation of your b ...

Get access to the context and additional materials

So you can understand the full picture and form your own opinion.
Get access for free

Create Summaries for anything on the web

Download the Shortform Chrome extension for your browser

Shortform Extension CTA