Dr. Sarah Paine: Why The World Is Turning Away From America

Sarah Paine and Steven Bartlett discuss the shift in global systems since World War II, highlighting the collapse of the postwar rules-based order, the resurgence of continentalist philosophies, and the consequences for world stability and cooperation.

The Maritime Versus Continental Models of Power Organization

Paine distinguishes between two primary models of power: the maritime and the continental.

Maritime Order Prioritizes Wealth Through Trade Rules, Networks, and Protections

The maritime system fundamentally redefined power during the Industrial Revolution. Previously, land was the currency of power for continental empires, and wealth came from conquest and territory. The Industrial Revolution allowed countries to compound wealth through commerce, trade, and industry, shifting the power base to the oceans. The maritime order, which now moves 90% of the world's trade via oceans, is inherently networked, global, and scalable. A container ship can carry vastly more goods than a train, underlining the efficiency and reach of the maritime order.

What makes this system unique is its reliance on universal rules and shared norms. Paine uses daily life and commerce to illustrate: a single piece of plastic (a credit card) can be used worldwide, and entrepreneurs can do business across nations without fear of arbitrary confiscation. The predictability and stability of these rules enable compounding wealth, international collaboration, and economic expansion—a true positive-sum game.

Continental Model Relies On Conquest and Land As Currency of Power, Needing Constant Military Expansion and Wealth Destruction For Control

In contrast, the continentalist model sees land as the primary source of power. This approach is fundamentally about conquest, taking territory, and controlling people through force. As Paine points out, continental powers extract wealth by burning it—they arbitrarily take resources, enforce loyalty, and perpetually expand through military means. Wealth is destroyed rather than compounded. Wars fought by continentalist powers are negative-sum, destroying resources and futures.

Rules-Based Order Depends On Shared Norms and Predictable Behavior

Paine emphasizes that even the most elaborate systems of rules—like traffic laws—depend on shared societal norms. Enforcing these norms by force alone is impossible; cooperation comes from mutual recognition and voluntary compliance. After World War II, the rules-based order brought together nations with the understanding that honoring agreements and norms would provide security and prosperity for all. Breaking promises, such as the U.S. withdrawal of protection from Ukraine after it surrendered its nuclear weapons, undermines trust in the system and weakens the entire structure.

How the U.S. Abandoned Its Maritime Role

Paine and Bartlett discuss America's drift from its historic maritime ideals toward a continentalist ideology under recent leadership.

America, Under Current Leadership, Adopts Continentalist Ideology, Threatening to Acquire Canada and Greenland and Pressuring Alliance Systems

They cite examples such as President Trump openly discussing acquiring Canada or Greenland and threatening military action against other states. Trump is identified as embodying a continentalist, real estate-driven mindset, where taking territory through threat or force is normalized. Paine critiques the failure of the Republican Party to rebuke such rhetoric, highlighting how these actions and ideas are diametrically opposed to the principles of rules-based cooperation.

Normalization of Lies, Abandonment of Democratic Principles Mirrors Soviet Collapse, as Disinformation-Led Societies Accumulate Failures, Shattering Institutions

Paine draws a parallel between today's U.S. climate and the Soviet Union's collapse. Just as the Soviet system was built on deliberate distortions and lies, with everyone exaggerating or understating to game the system, this led to the accumulation of failures and ultimately the shattering of institutional trust and capability. Normalizing lies erodes the effectiveness and legitimacy of institutions, corrupts data and planning, and makes it impossible to build sustainable policy or hold society together.

Western Nations Counter American Threats With Parallel Institutions, Independent Defense, and Economic Boycotts

As America jeopardizes its traditional leadership, Western nations have begun to hedge by building parallel international institutions, strengthening their own defenses, and leveraging economic boycotts. These moves reflect a lack of confidence in American commitments and signal an effort to uphold global stability and norms independently, as the U.S. becomes more unreliable as a guarantor of the established order.

China and Russia As Continentalist Actors Seeking Expansion

Paine and Bartlett consistently identify China and Russia as the current "conti ...

The ongoing Ukraine-Russia war is shaped by Vladimir Putin’s sweeping ambitions, catastrophic miscalculations, and the growing necessity for sustained Western support. Sarah Paine and Steven Bartlett discuss how these dynamics threaten not only the people of Ukraine but also broader European security and the rules-based international order.

Putin's Pivotal Strategic Error and Unlimited Objectives

Putin's Ukraine Invasion: Miscalculation Ruining Russia's Arsenal, Shaping Ukrainian Identity, Damaging Military Credibility

Sarah Paine identifies Putin’s invasion of Ukraine as a pivotal error. Russia has depleted its Cold War arsenal, with its military credibility and economic stability in crisis. Putin’s initial expectation was a swift and easy victory, as evidenced by Russian troops entering Ukraine with only enough supplies for a few days and uniforms for celebratory parades. Instead, Russian forces were met with unexpected Ukrainian resistance, including civilians throwing Molotov cocktails at their tanks.

Far from destabilizing Ukraine, the invasion has massively contributed to forging a stronger Ukrainian national identity. Paine observes that national identities often solidify during wars and points to growing Ukrainian unity and institution-building as direct consequences of the invasion. Instead of weakening Ukraine, the war is making its people and institutions more cohesive and resilient.

Putin's Objectives: Territorial Conquest and Genocide, Erasing Ukrainian Identity and Targeting Cultural Institutions

Paine argues that Putin’s goals in Ukraine are “unlimited”—extending beyond territorial conquest to regime change and even genocide. He seeks the erasure of Ukrainian identity by targeting cultural institutions and the leadership, including attempts to eliminate the Zelensky family and purveyors of Ukrainian culture. Paine compares Putin’s objectives to the most radical forms of war aims in history, ultimately amounting to the destruction and assimilation of Ukraine and its identity.

Countries, When Facing Unlimited Objectives and Death-Ground Scenarios, Fight With Maximum Ferocity, as Surrender Means Annihilation, Transforming Weaker Nations Into Formidable Military Adversaries

Putin’s unlimited objectives place Ukrainians on a “death ground,” meaning their only alternative is to fight or face annihilation. Paine notes this dynamic has historically turned even dysfunctional or weaker nations into formidable adversaries, as seen with the Soviet Union under Hitler’s attack. Facing existential threat, Ukraine’s resolve has only grown, while Russian overconfidence leads to strategic blunders and underestimation of the opponent.

Ukraine's Capacity to Defend Itself and Achieve Victory

Ukrainian Forces Destroy Half of Russia's Oil Refineries With Advanced Drone and Missile Technology

Ukraine has demonstrated remarkable capacity to defend itself and inflict significant losses on Russia. Paine highlights Ukraine’s development and deployment of advanced drones and ballistic missiles, with Ukrainian forces having destroyed or disabled up to half of Russia’s oil refineries, which rely on Western technology. These strikes have led to severe fuel shortages in Russia and have hampered its war-making capabilities.

Ukraine Winning War: Defense & Attrition of Russian Forces, Western Support Key To Containing Expansion Without U.S. Troops

Despite the immense challenge, Paine asserts Ukraine is “winning right now.” The war of attrition is weakening Russian forces, and Ukraine continues to innovate and scale its defenses, producing effective military technology at lower costs than Western suppliers. Paine stresses Ukraine is “doing the heavy lifting for all of us,” protecting the line against Russian aggression without requiring U.S. troops on the ground. Western support in the form of supplies, technology, and political backing remains crucial to sustaining this advantage and containing Russian expansion.

Zelensky: A Leader Who Refused Evacuation, Boosted Morale, and Merits Democratic Allies' Support

Volodymyr Zelensky is praised as a great statesman who galvanized Ukrainian resistance. At the onset of invasion, he famously refused evacuation, declaring, “I need ammunition, not a ride.” His communication skills and steadfastness boosted national and international morale, making a compelling case for continued Western support. Paine calls it “one of the most clear-cut wars of aggression you can possibly imagine,” underscoring the democratic imperative to support Ukraine.

The Catastrophic Consequences Of Abandoning Ukraine

Allowing Russia to Keep Ukrainian Territory Rewards Aggression, Encourages Future Authoritarian Conquests, and Undermines Western Security Credibility

Paine warns that yielding Ukrainian territory to Russia would reward aggression and encourage future authoritarian land-grabs. Such an outcome would severely undermine the credibility of Western security guarantees and call into question the commitment of democracies to defend international law. The brutality with which Russian forces treat civilians, including torture, reinforces the need for a resolute stand against further Russian advances.

Families of Tortured Civilians Demand Genuine Justice and Revenge, Beyond Settlement

Beyond geopolitical consequences, Paine observes that the suffering inflicted on Ukrainians—torture, murder, and attempts at cultural erasure—has created a desire for justice that transcends mere settlements. Families of tortured civilians demand accountability and feel that only true justice and, in some cases, retribution can address th ...

Donald Trump's administration triggers catastrophic consequences through its military engagement with Iran, damaging American economic prosperity, shattering alliances, and incentivizing nuclear proliferation. Sarah Paine details these impacts, noting the far-reaching and immediate effects on both domestic and international fronts.

The Catastrophic Incompetence of the Iran Military Engagement

Trump's decision to launch an unplanned war in Iran leads to disastrous outcomes for the United States. Paine describes the conflict as a "recreational war" that has severely harmed the U.S. economy. She draws a historical comparison to the occupation of Nazi Germany, noting the infeasibility of occupying a nation like Iran, with a population comparable to Germany's during World War II—approximately 90 million. Paine emphasizes that a massive occupation force would be required, an effort that is neither practical nor strategically sound.

The conflict immediately impacts global energy markets. The closure or threat to the Strait of Hormuz and resultant turmoil strands U.S. forces at outposts like Diego Garcia. Consequently, Americans and U.S. allies experience surging fuel and food prices, and overall economic growth slows. Paine explains, for example, that "every time you load up at the pump," it is a direct reminder of the economic hardship caused by Trump's choices, with diesel prices reportedly hitting $6 per gallon and grocery staples soaring in price.

The war's economic repercussions ripple worldwide, harming not only Americans but also close allies, whose economies suffer from rising energy costs and broader inflation. Paine points out the contrast: well-crafted sanctions target adversaries, but Trump's military action imposes widespread pain and reduces U.S. and allied economic growth by entire percentage points—delaying economic doubling by decades.

Furthermore, the war undermines decades of U.S. non-proliferation policy. Paine warns that the U.S. attack on a non-nuclear nation like Iran sends a message throughout the Middle East: the only true deterrent against U.S. intervention is to acquire nuclear weapons. The Obama-era nuclear agreement, designed to curb Iran's nuclear ambitions through intrusive inspections, is discarded; now, non-proliferation is in retreat, and the likelihood of Iranian nuclear armament is higher than ever.

Destruction of America's Alliance System and International Credibility

Trump's foreign policy—marked by threats toward allies like Canada and Denmark (regarding Greenland), as well as toward Iran—destabilizes America's entire alliance structure. Paine explains that the U.S. has transformed from a trusted partner to an "annoyance" or even "primary adversary" in the eyes of many nations. The ongoing war and economic threats leave allies concerned for their own economic security and sovereignty.

In response, European powers and other partners take independent action to insulate themselves from U.S. adventurism. European countries build new institutions, launch their own satellite systems, develop alternative international payment networks, and pursue consumer boycotts of American products. The United States’ habit of breaking security guarantees or threatening withdrawal signals to allies that American commitments are unreliable and temporary, undermining decades of diplomatic trust.

Paine highlights that this shattering of the alliance system endangers the long-term security of Americans and their allies, warning that the protective system for "their children and their grandchildren" is being dismantled.

The Structural Incompetence of the Trump Administration Leadership

The incompetence at the heart of Trump's administration amplifies these problems. Paine describes the replacement of experienced strategists and policymakers with loyalists who focus on political exclusion and personal allegiance. This leadership style, she argues, is driven by "type A" and "type B" American hubris: the belief that all crucial decisions happen in the U.S. and that competence in one domain guarante ...

Sarah Paine and Steven Bartlett discuss the growing threat of World War III and the alarming risk of nuclear escalation due to current global leadership and the breakdown of strategic norms. Their conversation highlights how historical restraints have dissolved, ushering in a period of unpredictability and existential danger.

The Acceleration Toward Potential Great-Power Conflict

Paine describes the current historical moment as one of overwhelming acceleration, likening it to a logjam that's burst without any sense of which direction the world will take—an era she calls "tremendously frightening." Major international events signal this speed and volatility: Putin has "kicked over the chessboard" by invading Ukraine, disrupting the post-Cold War order and violating diplomatic norms. Meanwhile, she says Donald Trump has pursued unilateral and recreational military action in Iran, which has blown apart U.S. alliances and damaged both the American and global economies.

Paine warns that wars are easy to start and nearly impossible to end, since losing parties rarely admit defeat and often double down, deepening conflict. She points to reckless, unrestrained leaders running key global powers and notes that, unlike their predecessors during the Cold War, these contemporary leaders lack the strategic restraint necessary to prevent catastrophic escalation.

Nuclear Weapons Inadequate Against Ideologically Driven Leaders

Discussing nuclear arsenals, Bartlett highlights charts of nuclear stockpiles worldwide, wondering whether the threat of mutual destruction effectively deters war. Paine counters that deterrence assumes rational actors, noting this is no longer sufficient. Leaders such as Putin, described by Paine as possessing "dark personalities," may not care about catastrophic losses if ideological goals are at stake. Instead of preventing war, nuclear arsenals have become points of leverage to threaten NATO; Paine describes recent airspace and territorial water violations by Russian drones over Bulgaria and Romania, triggering scenarios that approach NATO's Article 5 "collective defense" threshold—which European powers are reluctant to cross due to the enormous risks.

Paine also raises the specter of the United States, under a leader like Trump, potentially being the only country to deploy nuclear weapons for a third time—perhaps as a tactical nuke on Iran or elsewhere. Such an act would devastate America’s moral standing and international legitimacy.

Breakdown of Cold War Norms and Strategic Restraint

Paine identifies the loss of Cold War-era caution as a key factor threatening stability. The WWII generation, profoundly aware of the costs and dangers of global conflict, acted with restraint to avoid nuclear escalation. Today's leaders, in contrast, lack both the personal memory of nuclear w ...

The Systematic Abandonment of Democratic Norms and Institutions

Sarah Paine and Steven Bartlett discuss alarming signs of democratic erosion in the United States. They cite specific transgressions such as proposals to send federal agents like ICE to polling stations, interference in the vote count, and direct offers of cash ($5,000) to individuals for voting a certain way. These tactics represent a stark departure from democratic norms and constitutional procedures. Paine emphasizes election denial, underlining that Joe Biden won the last election and any claims otherwise are lies. The conversation points to institutions once considered robust now facing manipulation and public doubt, echoing practices common in authoritarian states like Russia, where election results are routinely falsified.

Paine draws a parallel to the collapse of the Soviet Union, arguing that normalization of lies and widespread disinformation are particularly corrosive. In such an environment, policy errors compound because decisions are based on distorted or fabricated data, impairing governance and citizen trust. Disinformation campaigns—whether about wars, energy exports, or economic performance—are used to manipulate public perception and to shift blame. Paine laments that many Americans want to believe these lies, resulting in widespread misinformation, and warns about the dangers of a “liar in chief.”

Mechanisms accelerating democratic collapse include the use of patronage in appointments, politicization of law enforcement, and unchecked executive authority. These tactics bypass regular checks and balances, undermining longstanding institutional safeguards and paving the way for authoritarian practices.

Why Democracies Outperform Authoritarian Systems Economically and Socially

Paine argues that democratic societies consistently outperform authoritarian ones in both economic prosperity and social well-being. She lists legal protections as fundamental: in democracies, people can start businesses, retain profits, invest in education, and amass wealth without fear of arbitrary expropriation. This security and tolerance foster innovation and compounding prosperity. She emphasizes that democracies enable high per capita living standards because of these freedoms and the rule-of-law culture.

A striking example is the rise of Scandinavian countries, which, despite challenging geography, have turned resources into functional, prosperous states. In contrast, authoritarian regimes like Russia and China lack institutionalized rule-of-law and protections for entrepreneurs, leading to resource misallocation, corruption, and centralized planning failures. In Russia, connected elites can seize businesses at will, and citizens have no say or protection from government abuse.

Paine attributes China’s brief period of wealth generation to its integration into a maritime, rules-based economic order. When such countries violate these principles—by launching wars or disrupting trade—they lose the advantages that compound growth brings. She contrasts the positive-sum outcomes of maritime democracies, which foster international cooperation and wealth creation, with the zero-sum logic of continental authoritarian regimes, where coercion and seizure prevail.

Global Response to American Abandonment of Democracy

America’s retreat from its traditional leadership role has spurred a wave of rapid institution-building among its allies. European nations, concerned about strategic reliability, are establishing their own military, security, and commercial frameworks. The Baltic Eight, comprised of Nordic and Baltic countries plus Iceland, launch joint security initiatives and develop spaceports in Britain, Norway, and Sweden. Britain plans a new spaceport in the Shetland Islands to support independent European satellite capabilities.

Simultaneously, Europe is building new payment systems to bypass American financial infrastructure. Even consumer technology now identifies American products for those wishing to boycott them. After WWII, a ravaged Europe swiftly built enduring institutions that underpinned peace for three generations; a similar, urgent phase unfolds today as the U.S. pulls back.

Canada, under Prime Minister Carney, is spearheading middle-power alliances to reduce dependence on U.S. markets and defense. Canada is forging energy deals with Europe and other partners, seeking stability and diversification in response to the mounting risks of American unpredictability.

Paine underscores the speed and necessity of these changes as Russia and China gain ground amid the perceived vacuum created by U.S. disengagement ...