90 Million People: Why Iran Is The Most Incompetent War In Human History

Sarah Paine and Steven Bartlett analyze the escalating trajectory of international conflicts, warning that reckless leadership and unlimited war objectives are pushing the world toward a potential third world war, with nuclear risks at an all-time high.

Geopolitical Conflicts Escalating Toward Nuclear Confrontation

Iran War: A Military Misstep Destabilizing Energy Markets and Encouraging Nuclear Proliferation

Sarah Paine describes Donald Trump’s war in Iran as “recreational,” damaging both the U.S. economy and the broader global alliance system. The destabilization spills into the world economy, and the U.S. approach puts Iran on “death ground”—a state where adversaries feel they have no alternative but to escalate. She notes that prior Iranian leadership was anti-nuclear, but as provocation continues from leaders like Trump and Netanyahu, the likelihood of Iran pursuing nuclear weapons increases. These war efforts, she argues, incentivize nuclear proliferation in the most costly and destabilizing manner. Paine emphasizes that once conflict escalates, leaders like Trump are unlikely to back down and are motivated to claim victory, regardless of cost.

Putin's Ukraine Invasion Erodes Russian Economy, Strengthens Ukrainian Identity

Paine points to Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine as a “pivotal error.” Putin believed a swift victory was possible, but Ukraine’s resistance has only solidified its national identity—much like the American colonies during the Revolution. She cites Russia’s long-standing weakness as a manufacturing power, with its economy historically reliant on primary goods, not industry or innovation. Russia’s war effort has triggered harsh Western sanctions, resulting in the loss of European energy markets, freezing of $300 billion in reserves, widespread domestic inflation, and a significant shift of resources from health and education to defense, with record defense spending now comprising 40% of the national budget.

Ukraine’s use of technology—drones, rapid missile development, and targeting Russian oil refineries—has further damaged Russia’s industrial capacity, and defense support such as U.S. Patriot missiles is hampered by limited supply and slow production. Skilled professionals are fleeing Russia, exacerbating labor shortages and inflation. Paine warns that Russia’s ability to recover and influence, especially over China, is diminished due to these errors and continued demographic decline.

Bartlett and Paine highlight the brutality of Russia’s actions in Ukraine, labeling the invasion as blunt aggression and genocide, with explicit attempts to eradicate Ukrainian culture and leadership.

Trump's Threats Toward Canada, Greenland, and Venezuela Show how Continentalist Ambitions Replace Strategic Restraint In U.S. Foreign Policy

Paine cites Trump’s threat to treat Canada as the “51st state” and to take over Greenland as indications of U.S. continental ambitions supplanting traditional strategic restraint. These ambitions, in her view, overextend American power toward unattainable objectives, risking disaster.

Unlimited War Objectives Trap Adversaries on "Death Ground," Forcing Them Into Prolonged, Destructive Conflicts

Paine stresses the folly of unlimited war objectives, such as regime change or genocide, which put adversaries on “death ground”—leaving them no option but to fight to the end. This mindset guarantees fierce resistance and prolonged, destructive wars, as seen in Ukraine and with Iran, and historically in World War II. She notes that wars persist because losing parties (such as Russia in Ukraine and the U.S. in Iran) refuse to accept defeat, instead escalating the conflict.

Incompetent, Reckless Leadership Drives Global Conflict

Trump's Team Replaces Experienced Generals With Ideologically Driven, Inexperienced Personnel

Paine laments the replacement of experienced leaders like General Mattis with ideologically driven, historically unqualified staff. She specifically calls out figures like “Major Pete,” whose focus on diversity issues distracts from core military competence, undermining both U.S. and party futures.

American Hubris—Assuming Global Decisions and Domain Success Are Centered In the U.S.—Leads To Underestimating Adversaries and Misunderstanding Complexities

Paine critiques two strains of American hubris: one believing all global decisions center on the U.S., and another, especially among tech leaders, believing excellence in one domain confers judgment across all others. This hubris leads to failed strategy and pivotal errors. She accuses U.S. foreign policy thinkers of only playing “half court tennis”—focusing solely on U.S. interests and failing to study adversaries’ perspectives and capabilities, leading to fatal underestimations.

She notes that this overconfidence is mirrored in R ...

Sarah Paine and Steven Bartlett discuss the unraveling of the international order established after World War II, highlighting how eroding norms and trust, American unreliability, and shifting alliances are leading to systemic dysfunction.

Democratic Norms Erode as Power Trumps Principles

Election Denial, Refusal to Congratulate Winners, and Attempts to Manipulate Voting Systems Violate Post-Wwii Democratic Norms

Sarah Paine draws a stark picture of the erosion of democratic principles in the United States. She describes how attempts to manipulate voting systems—such as sending ICE agents to polling stations, bribing voters, or foreign-born tech billionaires like Elon Musk buying influence—undermine democratic civility. Election denial, with losing candidates refusing to concede and instead proclaiming fraud, violates the core democratic practice that held since WWII: congratulating one’s opponent and vowing to try again.

When Governments Normalize Lying, Citizens Lose Trust in Institutions, Making Accurate Information Impossible to Obtain, Leading To Dysfunction

Paine highlights how normalized disinformation from leaders and institutions poses grave dangers, likening it to the collapse of the Soviet Union, which she attributes in large measure to a culture of lies. She specifically calls out Donald Trump’s habitual dishonesty and notes that when dishonesty from officials becomes accepted, citizens lose the ability to discern truth, undermining the basis of democracy and making functional governance impossible. Paine stresses the necessity of honest information from multiple sources for citizens to come to informed opinions.

Rule of Law Relies On Shared Norms, Not Enforcement; Leaders' Violations Collapse System

Drawing an analogy to traffic rules, Paine explains that just as civil society relies on shared practice rather than constant enforcement, international and legal order depends on mutual respect for norms. She warns that if leaders repeatedly violate these norms—breaking laws and retroactively legitimizing wrongdoing—the entire system becomes unworkable. The rules-based order collapses when leaders act outside norms and enforcement cannot keep pace.

Europe Organizes Defense Institutions Due to American Unreliability

European Nations Building Security Architectures, Investing In Space Programs, Developing Independent Satellite Systems

In response to U.S. unreliability, Paine describes how Europe is engaging in rapid institution building and defense cooperation. She highlights countries like Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Iceland, which are working together on security, remilitarization, and even developing independent spaceports and satellite systems to secure their sovereignty.

Europe Develops Alternate Payment Systems, Apps Identifying American Products, Boycotting U.S. Goods In Response to Trump's Threats and Trade Wars

Paine points out that Europeans are developing their own credit card payment systems and using apps that identify American goods, fueling boycotts against U.S. products in retaliation for Trump’s trade wars and threats. The economic backlash directly impacts American industries, such as Kentucky bourbon makers, who lose profits due to Canadian and European boycotts.

Prime Minister Carney Organizes Middle Powers For a U.s.-exclusive Global Order Realignment

She also notes the diplomatic leadership of Canadian Prime Minister Carney, who is working to organize ...

Continentalism: Land-Based Imperialism With Territorial Conquest as Primary Power Source

Sarah Paine explains that historically, the dominant mode of organizing power for empires was continentalism, where land acquisition is the main currency of power. Continentalist states prioritize expanding their territories and controlling neighbors primarily through force rather than fostering economic ties or participating in cooperative global markets. Powers like Russia, China, and, at times, Trump's America embody these continentalist tendencies. For example, Trump's rhetoric on claiming Canadian territory and Greenland reflects a continentalist mindset, as does the kidnapping of a head of state.

In the continentalist worldview, nations divide the globe into spheres of influence, where weaker nations are expected to submit to stronger, more dominant powers. This dynamic generates instability and domination rather than cooperative, mutual benefit. As Paine describes, in a continentalist system such as Russia’s, property is insecure—even successful business owners may have their assets seized by those connected to the ruling authority. Citizens may be forced into front-line military service with no choice.

Russia exemplifies the continentalist path through continual expansion. Historically, Russia has increased its territory by force, viewing itself as perpetually threatened while simultaneously threatening others. Paine lists Russia’s annexation of Crimea, interventions in the Caucasus, and moves in Belarus and Ukraine. She highlights Putin’s coming to power during the Second Chechen War and his subsequent support from the Russian public. In 2008, Putin intervened in Georgia, aiding two breakaway regions. Paine argues that history provides no evidence that Russian expansionism will cease, describing it as a 360-degree expansion effort. Continentalists may pause before further moves but only pause, never permanently stop, always seeking to extend outward.

Maritime Order: Universal Rules and Wealth Through Trade

In contrast, Paine explains the maritime world order, originating from sea powers like Britain. With the Industrial Revolution, the primary currency of power shifted from land to industry, commerce, and trade. Maritime powers compound wealth by participating in commerce and establishing universal, rules-based systems that protect property rights, create the confidence necessary for cross-border business, and enable economic growth. These rules-based systems ensure, for instance, that a business or individual can operate across many countries with predictable legal protections—credit cards and business transactions work internationally because of the integrity of the system.

Democracies within the maritime order protect individual rights and wealth, fostering high per capita prosperity. Unlike the win-lose logic of continentalists, the maritime order strives for “win-win” strategies—where all parties benefit and thus are incentivized to participate. Paine calls the maritime world order an “infinite game positive sum” system. Its effectiveness is built on the vast global reach of oceans: about 90% of the world’s trade moves by sea. The scale of ocean transport and its efficiency—container ships vastly out-capac ...

Sarah Paine and Steven Bartlett discuss the ramifications of recent U.S. foreign policy decisions, with special attention to the war with Iran, its global economic fallout, and the shift toward aggressive continentalist rhetoric under the Trump administration.

Iran War Launched Without Strategic Assessment, Caused Multidimensional Disasters

Sarah Paine contends that the Iran war represents one of the “most incompetent wars in human history,” launched with no serious strategic assessment. She highlights how Trump officials failed to anticipate that Iran would shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments. Closing the strait would not only halt Iranian exports but also block access to the U.S. Navy base in Bahrain, effectively forcing U.S. operations to relocate 2,500 miles away to Diego Garcia, an isolated base ill-suited for such a role.

Far from containing Iran, the war put the Iranian regime and its population in a situation Paine calls “death ground”—a condition in which desperate circumstances drive an adversary toward extreme measures. As a result, the war has driven Iran closer to nuclear weapons, precisely the opposite of its original intent. This outcome has reversed the Obama-era nuclear agreement, which assembled all permanent United Nations Security Council members and the EU around a feasible system of intrusive inspections to reduce Iran’s nuclear threat at an affordable cost. The war discarded this agreement for the unachievable objective of regime change and, in doing so, incentivized nuclear proliferation far beyond Iran. Paine points out that the lesson now is: “If you don’t have [nuclear weapons], you’re toast,” a message echoed by the actions of Putin and now the U.S.

Iran War's Impact Harms Global Economy

The war’s economic consequences have been severe. Oil prices soared, disrupting global markets and hurting industries across the world. Sarah Paine explains that this escalation has “trashed the US economy,” “blown the US alliance system,” and inflicted “collateral damage of taking down the world’s economy.” As the U.S. initiated actions that caused oil disruptions, it shifted from a valued ally to a primary adversary in the eyes of other countries for threatening their prosperity.

Paine notes that Americans and others worldwide feel these effects each week at the gas pump, with skyrocketing diesel and gasoline prices. She directly attributes these rising costs to decisions made during Trump’s war in Iran, dismissing excuses that blame the Ukraine war or Russian diesel deals. Paine details that refinery capabilities and oil supply disruptions in the Middle East are the real cause, and that adjusting refineries to handle new types of oil would take immense time and money.

The economic pain is persistent and widespread: “Every time you load up at the pump, you have a weekly reminder that Donald Trump’s war has done a number on you.” Higher costs at grocery stores and general inflation are traced back to these foreign policy missteps, yet misplaced blame often falls on President Biden. Paine insists, “It’s not Biden...it’s mind blowing. Just mind blowing. Thank you, Donald Trump.” She also n ...

Sarah Paine argues that the contest between democracy and authoritarianism holds profound implications for global prosperity, stability, and human flourishing. Drawing on economic evidence, case studies, and historical analysis, she delineates key differences and the dangers embedded in authoritarian systems.

Democracies Generate Prosperity and High Living Standards

Democracies consistently deliver high per capita living standards. Sarah Paine notes that democracies alone generate massive wealth, enabling and protecting property rights, allowing for business startups, the preservation of earnings, and the maintenance of transparent legal systems. These enabling features foster broad prosperity. The ability to tolerate differences, provide legal protections, and let people retain the fruits of their labor creates a foundation for sustainable economic growth.

Scandinavian Countries: Limited Resources, Tough Geography, Thriving Democracies; Russia: Wasting Vast Resources on Military Expansion

Paine highlights Scandinavia as a key example: despite their harsh geography and limited natural resources, these countries have built strong, functional democracies and thriving economies. In contrast, Russia, despite being the world's largest country with vast resources, squanders its potential due to the lack of rule of law and economic freedom. Instead of investing in growth, Russia focuses on military expansion and, as a result, misses opportunities for economic development that stem from entrepreneurship and secure property rights.

3% Growth Doubles Economy In 23 Years; 1% Takes 70 Years; Authoritarianism & Mismanagement Hinder Prosperity

She quantifies the compounding effects of economic mismanagement: at a 3% annual growth rate, an economy doubles in about 23 years, but at 1% growth, doubling takes around 70 years. Poor policy choices—such as unnecessary wars and protectionism—suppress growth and delay prosperity for generations, a recurring flaw in authoritarian states.

Authoritarian Collapse From Systemic Lying and Economic Dysfunction

Authoritarian regimes undermine their own stability through systemic dishonesty and economic mismanagement. Paine recounts how the Soviet Union was built on lies at every level: under communism, all industries reported exaggerated needs and understated inventory to abuse the central planning system, leading to grossly inaccurate data. As this faulty information moved up the chain, Soviet planners based resource allocation on fiction, resulting in profound misallocation of capital and labor.

Soviet Collapse: Lies, Resource Exaggeration, Production Understatement, Capital Misallocation

This process produced endemic waste, inefficiency, and hidden crises, contributing to the Soviet collapse. Centralized regimes, blinded by bad data and unable to correct course, repeatedly make catastrophic errors in war, economics, and infrastructure, eventually shattering their power.

Moscow Planners Made Poor Resource Decisions Based On Bad Data, Eventually Destroying the System

Paine gives the example of Tsarist and Soviet Russia misallocating resources, such as prioritizing military spending over essential infrastructure like railways. Such choices caused logistical failures in World War I and led to avoidable disasters that weakened the state from within. Aid and opportunity were also forfeited due to the regime’s focus on power retention rather than broad development.

Dictators Create Dangerous Instability Through Perverse Incentives

Paine argues that authoritarian systems, by denying dictators a safe retirement, inherently foster instability. In democracies, leaders can peacefully leave office without fear for their life or assets. Dictatorships, on the other hand, transition power violently or not at all—removal from office may mean death, imprisonment, or loss of wealth.

Dictators Lack Safe Retirement; Putin's System Makes Stepping Down Mean Death, Imprisonment, or Loss of Wealth, Forcing Him to Keep Fighting For Survival

She explains Putin’s predicament: because there is no secure off-ramp, he must hold onto power at all costs. If forced out, his own entourage or rivals could kill him or strip him of everything. Unlike the post-Stalin Soviet era, when retiring leaders could expect to be sent to country homes (“dacha retirements”), Putin reversed this minimal security guarantee, increasing personal stakes for leaders and making voluntary retirement virtually impossible.

Lack of Peaceful Succession Could Lead To a Power Struggle and Nuclear Instability in Russia Post-Putin

Paine predicts that after Putin, Russia’s lack of democratic institutions and succession norms could tr ...