The Man Who Predicted The Iran War: Iran’s Next Move Will Break Everything! | Professor Jiang

Petrodollar System: Foundation for Post-Wwii Tech Progress and Global Prosperity

After World War II, the United States emerged as the center of the global economy by manufacturing goods for war-ravaged Europe and Japan, lending them US dollars to purchase these goods, which would be repaid in gold. This foundation changed in 1971, when President Richard Nixon decoupled the US dollar from gold, ending the Bretton Woods system. To create demand for the US dollar, the US struck a pivotal deal with Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern countries, ensuring that oil would be sold only in US dollars. This established the petrodollar system, requiring any country that wanted oil to first obtain US dollars.

Subsequently, China and Japan also structured their export economies around the US dollar: in the late 1970s and early 1980s, China demanded payment in US dollars for its manufactured goods, and by the mid-1980s, Japan agreed to recycle its savings by purchasing US Treasuries—creating what is known as a plastic cord of capital flows. The Gulf oil exporters and Japan thus invested their excess savings in US Treasury bonds, which financed US innovation and economic dominance.

This recycling mechanism turned the US dollar into a contract or a promise: in exchange for goods and oil, trading partners purchased US debt, fueling ongoing American prosperity. East Asia relied on Middle Eastern energy—paid for and priced in dollars—to manufacture consumer electronic products for global consumption. The accumulated surpluses returned to the United States as investments, especially into its financial sector, epitomized by New York City's global finance dominance.

Crucially, the petrodollar-based global monetary system also enabled labor specialization and free trade, which together drove unprecedented technological advancement. Countries could focus on their comparative strengths and freely exchange goods, ideas, and technologies, giving rise to tightly integrated, efficiency-driven supply chains.

Tech Progress Relies On Specialization and Globalization, Risks Geopolitical Fragmentation

Technological progress has historically depended on the maximization of specialization and globalization. According to Jiang Xueqin, rather than coming from universities, innovation results from an international division of labor—one made possible by global trade, the US dollar, and US military hegemony over the world’s oceans, which guarantee the safety and predictability of those trade flows.

The semiconductor industry is a prime example. Advanced chips are designed in the United States, especially in California by firms like Nvidia and Apple. The chip designs go to Taiwan and Malaysia for manufacturing, using complex lithography machines produced by the Netherlands’ ASML and Japanese firms. These machines—worth hundreds of millions of dollars—are then used to manufacture chips primarily in Taiwan and Malaysia. The finished chips are shipped to China, where they’re assembled into consumer goods.

This global network depends on the participation of many countries: 60–70% of the world's silicon for semiconductors, as well as 70% of [restricted term] and 90% of germanium, comes from China. At the same time, the US, via Spruce Pine, North Carolina, controls about 90% of the world’s high-quality quartz, which is essential for refining silicon. China must also import large amounts of helium for the cooling process. Such complexity in the supply chain is only possible in a globalized world.

A similar interdependence exists in agriculture: the "North" (including the US, Canada, Europe, China, Russia) manufactures most of the world’s fertilizers, like ammonia, while the "South" (Africa, Middle East, South America) is heavily reliant on importing fertilizers and food. If global supply chains are disrupted, the North may lose access to advanced technology like smartphones, but the South faces the graver threat of famine.

Jiang Xueqin warns that prioritizing security and self-sufficiency over free trade has immediate consequences for innovation. As global conflict rises, nations shift from specialization to generalization, dismantling international supply chains and undermining the drivers of technological progress. At this point, rather than living at the apex of tech advancement, the world is entering an era of stagnation, nationalism, and possibly regression.

Geopolitical Dismantling of Petrodollar via Conflict and Resource Competition

The stability of the petrodollar system—and by extension global trade—is now threatened by geopolitical conflict, particularly in the Middle East. The region is the heart of the petrodollar system, exporting barrels of oil to India, Japan, and East Asia, which use that energy to produce exports paid for in US dollars.

Currently, Iran and its regional proxies are disrupting this arrangement by targeting critical maritime chokepoints: the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, who are nearly impossible to dislodge due to their mountainous base, control the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait at the Red Sea; Iran itself can threaten the Strait of ...

Geopolitical tensions are rapidly escalating worldwide, fueled by resource scarcity, demographic pressure, and competition for critical infrastructure and supply routes. These forces are destabilizing regions, influencing state strategies, and creating parallels with historical moments of global collapse.

Regional Conflicts Escalate, Risking Major Power Confrontations

Conflict to Disrupt Middle East Trade: Attacks on Shipping and Energy to Create Insurance Uncertainty and Commerce Issues

Jiang Xueqin highlights that Iranian-backed groups, including the Houthis, control strategic chokepoints like the Bab-el-Mandab Strait in the Red Sea, critical for global trade. Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz and threats by proxies such as Hezbollah to the Suez Canal add further risk, potentially halting the transit of Saudi oil exports to East and South Asia. Attacks by these groups on shipping and energy infrastructure are already generating uncertainty for insurance companies, disrupting the flow of commerce. The involvement of additional actors such as South Korea, which has deployed a naval contingent to help secure the Strait of Hormuz, underscores how these regional conflicts can pull in global powers and expand in scope. Migration pressures are building as populations flee destabilized regions like Iran and Africa, particularly as access to energy and fertilizer collapses, threatening to overwhelm European systems.

China and Japan Will Enter Military Conflict Over Taiwan and Southeast Asian Resources, as Japan Needs Colonies and China CanNot Allow Japan to Control Taiwan

Jiang Xueqin expands on the strategic dynamics in East Asia, explaining that Japan is a sea-power historically dependent on foreign resources, while China is a self-sufficient land power. With Japan’s population aging and its dependence on external resources growing, it faces an existential crisis if cut off from Southeast Asia. Taiwan is crucial—if China controls Taiwan, it can block Japan’s access to the South China Sea and vital imports. The U.S. once provided for Japan’s energy needs, but dependency is not desirable for Tokyo, which seeks to re-establish resource colonies in Southeast Asia, reminiscent of pre-WWII patterns.

China and Japan are therefore on a collision course over Taiwan, with Japan building alliances with nations like the Philippines and attempting to contest Chinese naval dominance. Meanwhile, China uses North Korea as a proxy to threaten South Korea and Japan, with North Korean artillery poised near Seoul and missile threats aimed at rattling Japan. As the U.S. retreats from direct involvement in the Asia-Pacific, it is incentivized to let tensions mount between China and Japan, further increasing the likelihood of regional military confrontation.

Taiwan also plays a pivotal role in global semiconductor supply. The U.S. appears to be encouraging the Taiwanese semiconductor industry to relocate to the American mainland, notably through TSMC’s multi-billion dollar factory in Arizona, preparing for potential disruption caused by conflict.

Russia to Provoke Nato and Europe By Attacking Manufacturing and Energy Infrastructure, Forcing Military Confrontation Due to Inability to Win Against Europe’s Industrial Capacity

Turning to Europe, Jiang Xueqin explains that the war in Ukraine has already extended its reach through Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, applying direct economic and psychological pressure on Russian citizens and diminishing Putin’s popularity. Since Western Europe manufactures and supplies much of Ukraine’s military capability, Russia realizes it cannot win a war of attrition against Europe’s superior manufacturing and financing capacity, safely shielded by NATO defenses. As a result, Jiang predicts Russia will resort to striking critical manufacturing and energy infrastructure within NATO territory to provoke a larger European mobilization, escalating the conflict beyond Ukraine. He notes recent alleged Russian drone attacks on German infrastructure and worsening diplomatic tensions, echoing 1941 sentiments and implying a slide toward open confrontation.

U.S. to Target Critical Civilian Infrastructure, Risking Massive Casualties and Humanitarian Catastrophe

Facing trade and regional disruption, Jiang foresees the U.S. responding to Iranian aggression by directly targeting civilian infrastructure in Iran—such as desalination and power plants—should open conflict erupt. Such attacks could inflict humanitarian disaster, leaving millions in cities like Tehran at risk of starvation and civilizational breakdown, surpassing the devastation of nuclear weapons in scope due to dependence on power and refrigeration.

Water Scarcity, Demographic Imbalances Fuel Regional Geopolitical Conflicts

Water-Scarce Regions Prone to Future Conflict

Water scarcity is rapidly emerging as a driver for future conflict. Major red zones on the map include the Middle East—already volatile and wracked by conflict; large swathes of India, pressuring relations with China; Northeast Asia, heightening tensions between Japan and North Korea; and the western United States, where states such as Colorado, California, and ...

Aging Populations in the West: Immigration Needs vs. Anti-Immigration Tensions

Jiang Xueqin explains that Europe, Japan, and North America are facing a rapid aging crisis, with populations getting older and creating a demand for cheap healthcare and nursing services. Developed nations therefore need more immigrants to staff these essential care roles. However, Jiang warns that increased migration often leads to friction with native populations, raising the risk of domestic conflict, political violence, and even revolution.

Steven Bartlett observes that Western societies are already reacting to this demographic and economic stress by electing right-wing political parties that campaign to restrict immigration. He cites the rise of Reform in the UK, AFD in Germany, MAGA in the United States, and Vox in Spain. Jiang concurs, arguing that these countries will become much more right wing, making opposition to immigration their core policy. Yet, they still face the unresolvable contradiction of shrinking workforces that require immigrant labor to care for the elderly.

Immigration Replacement by Robots Will Fail Due to Material Supply Issues

Bartlett raises the possibility that robots might replace immigrant labor. Jiang Xueqin argues this is not a viable solution because robots depend on critical materials like copper (from Chile, Peru, China, Australia), lithium (mined in the “lithium triangle” far from Europe and the US), silicon (mainly manufactured in China), and rare earth elements (again, mostly from China). Disruptions in global supply chains mean these resources may not be reliably available, especially as geopolitical tensions rise. Thus, in the coming decades, immigration remains the cheapest and most practical solution for supporting aging populations, as people are ultimately cheaper and more expendable than robots.

Immigration Surges During Crises Could Overwhelm Developed Nations, Causing Unrest and Potential Conflict Between Natives and Immigrants

Jiang points out that most population growth, with more children being born, is taking place in regions marked by geopolitical tension, setting the stage for large-scale migration from these areas—often toward Europe and other wealthy regions. He warns that such surges could overwhelm the social fabric and state institutions of receiving countries, referencing the wave of European generosity toward migrants since 2014 but noting the intense social and political friction that has resulted.

Steven Bartlett asks whether massive migration crises could be triggered by events like the destruction of critical infrastructure in countries such as Iran, leading to waves of people starving and fleeing to Europe. Jiang agrees, warning that these migration flows could push tensions to a point where they spark civil war, political violence, and even revolution in Western countries, as native and immigrant populations come into direct and sometimes violent conflict.

Predicted Us Conflict: Nyc Siege and Political Violence

If Trump Serves a Third Term By Suspending Constitutional Limits, Major Democratic Cities Will Revolt By Refusing Federal Taxes and Blocking Federal Law Enforcement

Jiang Xueqin predicts a scenario in which Donald Trump secures a third term—either by suspending the Constitution during a national emergency or by running as vice president with his son Don Jr. as president, then assuming office when Don Jr. resigns. In this situation, Jiang argues, large Democratic-leaning cities such as New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Boston, and Chicago would revolt, refusing to pay federal taxes and barring the entry of federal law enforcement agent ...

Jiang Xueqin and Steven Bartlett explore the future trajectory of artificial intelligence amidst geopolitical instability and technological fragmentation, warning that AI may become a tool for control and dehumanization instead of progress and enlightenment.

General Ai Won't Progress Amid Geopolitical Conflict and Supply Chain Breakdown

Jiang Xueqin emphasizes that the development of advanced AI, particularly Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), relies on a stable and globalized supply chain. He describes technological progress as a function of specialization multiplied by globalization. As geopolitical conflicts intensify and global supply chains break down, this formula collapses: AI will not be able to make the leap to AGI during an era of fragmented global systems, resource constraints, and rising isolationism. The lack of interconnectedness will deprive AI of the diverse data, materials, and coordination essential for achieving general intelligence.

Instead, in a world riven by fragmentation and crisis, AI is likely to be repurposed as a control grid. Rather than alleviating scarcity, solving pressing medical issues, or addressing climate change, AI will shift focus onto surveillance objectives. Bartlett points out that governments are becoming increasingly interested in and capable of monitoring citizens at all times, especially as interconnected AI networks begin linking ubiquitous but currently “dumb” surveillance cameras, facial recognition systems, and predictive algorithms across entire cities. In crisis scenarios, such as a siege or military conflict, companies like Palantir may deploy AI-driven autonomous drones and other surveillance measures, using emergencies as justification for rapidly expanding a permanent monitoring infrastructure.

Ai Will Exploit Crises to Expand Government Control

This convergence of military crisis and technological opportunity paves the way for the AI-government merger, leveraging AI’s rapid advancements to expand state power and oversight. Military conflicts will be used to justify the widespread deployment of AI-powered drones and surveillance, leading to a normalization of constant monitoring over civilian populations. Bartlett and Jiang emphasize how the state’s monitoring grid, enabled by AI, erases boundaries between military and civilian domains.

This merger risks reducing humans to mere data points, managed and optimized by AI for efficiency rather than for human flourishing. The system ignores individual agency, imagination, and moral autonomy by treating human beings as patterns to be measured and manipulated. AI’s logic, designed for scalable control ...

Jiang Xueqin reflects on a journey from secular materialism to deep faith, articulating how belief in God, family, and spiritual purpose offer guidance, hope, and moral responsibility in times of civilizational crisis.

Faith in God and Divine Purpose Sustains Hope and Morality During Collapse

Jiang Xueqin describes himself as a product of meritocracy and elite education, molded by environments that taught him to view the world as materialistic and without God. In this secular worldview, he found himself angry, depressed, and frustrated, perceiving life as chaotic and meaningless. In contrast, his gradual shift to believing in God and perceiving a divine plan brought a sense of order, reason, and hope to his life.

Secular View vs. Belief in God: Meaning, Order, and Purpose

He emphasizes that lacking belief in God leads to despair and the sense that chaos reigns. However, faith in God provides a meaningful structure and order to existence, offering hope in the midst of disorder.

Faith Drives Moral Duty Over Rational Calculations

Jiang insists that belief in God and focus on family compels action based on moral duty, not mere rational calculation. He grounds life in a simple rule: speak the truth, regardless of anticipated outcomes. Faith is not passive; it calls for engagement with the world, responsible truth-telling, and action, because such devotion gives purpose to individual existence.

Civilization Breakdown Will Spur Existential Questions and a Spiritual Awakening

He warns that modern civilization’s obsession with wealth, status, and possessions distracts humanity from cultivating wisdom, love, empathy, and deeper spiritual connections with God and others. He believes crises force individuals to reevaluate what truly matters, fostering an existential reckoning and spiritual awakening.

Material Focus of Modern Civilization—Pursuing Wealth, Status, and Possessions—Distracts Humanity From a Deeper Purpose: Cultivating Wisdom, Love, Empathy, and Spiritual Connection With God and Others

Jiang argues that excessive pursuit of wealth and fame prevents people from attaining imagination, empathy, and love—the true markers of humanity. Instead of striving merely for material success, he suggests the real purpose is to learn what it means to be human and deepen the connection with others and the divine.

Crisis Reveals Life's Meaning: Love For Family and Spiritual Purpose Provide Lasting Happiness

Crises, he asserts, compel deep reflection about meaning and happiness. Ultimately, he believes people will recognize that love for family and spiritual purpose outlast fleeting material gains. This awakening, spurred by hardship, can lead humanity to a greater spiritual understanding.

Family and Children Offer Hope and Moral Purpose In a Collapsing World

Jiang sees his family, especially his children, as his anchor and primary source of hope. Parenting gives him lasting purpose, grounds him morally, and liberates him from anxieties over his children’s future. He believes raising children with love and f ...