World Collapse Expert (Ian Bremmer): The Real Crisis Is What Comes After Trump

The global power balance is undergoing profound upheaval as the United States steps back from the post-WWII liberal international order, Europe grapples with chronic underinvestment, and China rapidly rises through calculated state-led advancement.

U.S. Creates Global Instability By Abandoning Role as Leading Institution

Ian Bremmer identifies the United States as the biggest driver of geopolitical uncertainty today. After decades leading the liberal international order established after World War II, the US is turning inward to "America First" policies. This shift rejects the free trade system America once built, pulls back from the role of global policeman funding collective security, and puts up barriers to immigration. Bremmer notes that Americans themselves—rather than external rivals—are rejecting the US’s historic leadership position, refusing to play by the rules it created.

America’s withdrawal from the leadership role leaves a gaping void in the global system, resulting in what Bremmer calls a “G0” world. In this system, there is no consensus or unified body like the G7 or G20 to arbitrate global rules. Instead, powerful nations impose regulations that serve themselves, leaving weaker nations with little recourse or influence.

The unpredictability of US leadership now compels allies to hedge their bets with China in both security and the economy. Countries feel vulnerable to Washington’s sudden policy shifts—on tariffs, sanctions, energy, and alliances—and seek other partnerships as risk mitigation.

Europe's Lack of Investment in Innovation, Defense, and Productivity Increases Dependency

Europe’s response to the post-Cold War world was to prioritize quality of life, choosing social welfare spending and greater regulation over vigorous investment in technological innovation, productivity, or defense. European countries presumed that lasting peace would render investments in military capacity and advanced technology less necessary. This assumption proved wrong.

Europe’s political fragmentation makes strategic, large-scale, long-term investments harder to pursue. Unlike the US or China, the European Union consists of 27 separate nations, plus the UK post-Brexit, each balancing frequent elections and unique national interests. This fragmentation impedes unified progress.

European energy policy further compounds the problem. Many states prioritized green technologies and the pursuit of net zero emissions at the expense of nuclear and other alternatives. This approach increased energy costs and undermined competitiveness, with the exception of France, which maintained a robust nuclear sector. In contrast, China invested broadly in all energy forms, including dirty coal, renewables, and nuclear to maintain industrial might and adaptability.

As dependency on outside technology and energy grows, Europe finds itself increasingly sidelined in global affairs. The UK and continental partners, once reliable allies of the US, are rethinking their strategies and alliances amid growing American unpredictability.

China Is Dominating Globally By Investing In Minerals, Rare Earths, Manufacturing, and Technology

While the West stumbles, China pursues a ...

The recent Middle East crisis centers around cascading effects from U.S. and Israeli actions toward Iran and the strategic influence of regional and global powers. Donald Trump's administration embarks on new military actions after experiencing a high-profile perceived victory in Venezuela, which sparks a bold yet ultimately destabilizing policy toward Iran. The region's instability is compounded by Iran's anti-Western stance, unchecked Israeli military activity, and deepening rival security blocs.

Trump Admin Launched Military Actions Against Iran After Venezuela Intervention Success, Assuming Iran Would Yield Like Venezuela

At the start of the year, the Trump administration successfully intervenes in Venezuela, capturing Nicolás Maduro alive and bringing him to justice in New York. This operation is touted as the most successful possible: not a single American life is lost, and Delcie Rodriguez takes over as acting president, signaling cooperation with the United States on oil, mining, and economic recovery. The intervention is popular both domestically and with South American leaders, as it addresses the burdens of Venezuelan migration and regional safety.

Trump's Escalation Against Iran Involved Three Key Factors: The Successful Operation in Venezuela Removing Maduro Without American Casualties, Iran Backing Down After Soleimani's Assassination, and His Advisors' Reluctance to Challenge His Strategy

Emboldened by Venezuela, Trump’s attention shifts to Iran. His calculation rests on three factors: the clean military victory in Venezuela, Iran’s apparent restraint after the U.S. killed Qasem Soleimani (Iran’s Quds Force commander), and the lack of dissent among Trump’s national security advisors. This inner circle, including Marco Rubio and Scott Besson, values loyalty over independent judgment; unlike in Trump’s first term, they affirm his views and avoid confronting him with the military’s risk assessments.

Trump's View of Venezuelan Intervention as a Victory Led to Overconfidence In Removing Iran's Supreme Leader For Negotiations

Trump believes the Iran scenario can mirror Venezuela’s: remove Supreme Leader Khamenei, inflict a display of power, and force Iranian leadership to the negotiating table for a favorable agreement or regime change. He underestimates the complexity and depth of Iran's leadership and structures.

Trump's Security Team Values Loyalty Over Judgment, Confirming His Views Rather Than Alerting Military Risks

The makeup of Trump’s security and advisory team means he faces no substantial pushback against his plans for Iran, even though the U.S. military knows Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz in a conflict. This insular atmosphere fuels Trump’s overconfidence and his readiness to escalate militarily despite severe operational risks.

Israeli-American Campaign Against Iran Decentralized Decision-Making, Creating Resilient Adversary in Persian Gulf

The kinetic campaign against Iran is marked by targeted assassinations—most notably, Israeli forces kill Iran’s Supreme Leader and other senior military officers. Although intended to decapitate Iran’s command, this act has unforeseen consequences.

Assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader by Israeli Forces Leads To Decentralized Military, Hindering American Negotiations

Following these assassinations, Iran’s military decentralizes leadership, pushing decision-making to local commanders to avoid detection and retaliatory strikes. This mosaic structure undermines U.S.-Iranian backchannel contacts, as many interlocutors are now dead or inaccessible. Trump publicly acknowledges, “A lot of the guys we’re talking to are dead now, so we don’t really know who to work with,” exposing confusion and lack of contingency planning.

Iran Maintained Control: 21-hour Talks in Pakistan on Strait of Hormuz, Missiles, Proxies, Nuclear Prove Collapse Reports Exaggerated

Despite high-profile killings, Iran’s regime demonstrates resilience. Senior leadership, including the foreign minister and speaker of parliament, participates in a 21-hour negotiation in Islamabad, covering navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, ballistic missiles, regional proxies, and nuclear activities. This disproves widespread narratives of imminent Iranian state collapse.

Iran's Control of Strait of Hormuz: A Key Deterrent and Negotiating Tool Against Global Escalation and Trump's Domestic Challenges

Iran maintains functional control over the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical oil chokepoint. This control is both a deterrent and a lever in negotiations—a proven ability to disrupt global oil flows and drive up prices. Trump, facing domestic backlash as gas and food prices soar, finds his options limited, lacking a viable military response while the economic impact erodes his political capital.

Trump Pressured to End Conflict, Claiming Victory While Accepting Compromises Preserving Iranian Influence

The domestic cost of escalation mounts. Public opposition to another Middle East war grows amid inflation and surging gas prices, endangering Trump’s midterm prospects and personal legacy.

Unpopular President Faces Iran Issue, Rising Gas Prices, Inflation, and Public Opposition to Middle East Military Commitment, Affecting Midterm Prospects

Trump is increasingly “underwater” politically: as sole architect of the conflict, he cannot shift blame. The economic downturn—rising oil, gas, and food prices—directly links back to his decision-making, with midterm elections looming. His popularity suffers as Americans reject further entanglement in the region.

Trump's Statements Suggest To Iran That He Lacks Staying Power, With Promises of a Quick War and Claims That the Strait of Hormuz Is "Not America's Problem," Indicating U.S. Resolve Might Crumble Under Economic Pressure

Trump’s conflicting public statements signal to Tehran a lack of resolve. “War’s almost over,” he says, promising a short conflict. Elsewhere, he dismisses the Strait as “not America’s problem.” These mixed messages are interpreted by Iran as evidence the U.S. cannot withstand sustained economic pain or military pushback.

Most Likely Resolutio ...

Artificial intelligence (AI) has reached a point where it delivers astonishing advances but also presents deep systemic risks. As AI models become more capable, questions of security, inequality, and social stability grow increasingly urgent.

Anthropic's Ai Model Discovering Unknown Security Vulnerabilities Poses Systemic Risks, Prompting Emergency Government Meetings With Banking and Security Officials

Anthropic recently revealed an AI model so advanced it could not be released to the public due to its capacity to discover security vulnerabilities in a broad range of software. This capability extends to critical infrastructure such as power grids and water systems, making it a potential weapon for malicious actors able to exploit previously unknown bugs. The immediacy and seriousness of the risk prompted emergency meetings with top U.S. banking and treasury officials, including Jerome Powell and Scott Besant. Financial leaders like JP Morgan’s Jamie Dimon described the risk level as a "five-alarm fire," underscoring the severe potential impact on the global economy and national security.

Anthropic's communications around the risk bolster its reputation and negotiating power, especially after tensions where the Department of Defense questioned allowing Anthropic's models near defense applications. Despite suspicions of strategic messaging, the threat was validated by security and banking officials who called for urgent internal deployment of the technology to patch vulnerabilities before bad actors gain similar capabilities.

Ai's Rapid Rise Creates a "Winner-Take-All" Dynamic, Concentrating Control With a Few Executives Who May Dictate Access and Deployment

The unprecedented progress in AI is leading to a winner-take-all scenario in which a handful of tech CEOs—people like Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk, Sundar Pichai, and Sam Altman—hold disproportionate power over how AI is developed, accessed, and applied. These leaders are shaping a reality where intelligence itself is treated as a utility, something you "pay for like water or gas," stripping away its essence as an intrinsic human trait.

AI development is now concentrated within a techno-oligarchy of wealthy corporations, with scant democratic oversight. The general population has little say in rules, access, or deployment, fueling public distrust and backlash. This discontent manifests in the unpopularity of AI, with survey reports indicating lower favorability than even controversial government agencies. Violent attacks against AI figures, such as the Molotov cocktail and gunshots targeting Sam Altman, point to heightened societal anxiety and the risk of greater civil unrest if governance models are not reformed to include broader interests.

Ai Boosts Productivity and Solves Complex Issues In Agriculture, Healthcare, and the Environment, Benefiting a Narrow Elite While Average Workers Face Displacement and Insecurity

AI is already transforming industries. Applications in agriculture help optimize planting decisions for food security in regions like Ethiopia. In recycling, AI offers the promise of radically improved waste processing, while aviation leverages real-time micro-adjustments to slice fuel consumption by 10%. These productivity gains—and the cost savings flowing from them—largely benefit shareholders and well-positioned consumers.

Yet, the workers who help train AI models, such as in India where people wear cameras to capture manual tasks, are directly contributing to their own obsolescence. Once AI learns these jobs, those same workers face displacement. The benefits of AI remain concentrated among corporate leaders and capital investors, while average workers confront rising unemployment, underemployment, and wage suppression as their skills dev ...

Democracies around the world are experiencing rising instability as citizens feel abandoned by systems that benefit elites and fail to provide security, dignity, or opportunity for ordinary people. These conditions fuel political populism, calls for radical change, and heightened skepticism toward traditional institutions.

Democratic Nations See Rising Demand For Revolution as Citizens Feel Abandoned by Systems Benefiting Elites, Lacking Security, Dignity, and Opportunity for Ordinary People

Ian Bremmer observes that the demand for political revolution stems from citizens’ belief that government only serves the interests of the wealthy and powerful. In the U.S., Donald Trump twice won the presidency by positioning himself as an outsider who promised to end costly wars, invest in American workers, and prioritize the needs of working-class people over corporate interests and immigration, even as he faced a litany of scandals and embraced extremism. Bremmer points to Trump’s electoral success with men who had traditionally stable manufacturing jobs but lacked advanced degrees. These men saw their livelihoods threatened by automation, globalization, trade policies favoring corporate profit, and an influx of immigrants while their communities were neglected and their economic security and social status eroded.

The demand for radical political change is not unique to the U.S.; similar movements exist in Europe, such as Nigel Farage's, indicating a widespread disillusionment with establishment politics. Bremmer highlights the election of Zoran Mamdani, a Democratic Socialist as mayor of New York City—traditionally the center of global capitalism—as further evidence of a broadening appetite for alternatives within democratic societies.

Bremmer notes that as long as the underlying economic anxieties and sense of powerlessness remain unresolved, populist political revolutions are inevitable. While it is uncertain whether future movements or leaders will emerge from the left or right, or what ideologies they will espouse, the certainty is that this instability will persist and intensify unless deep structural issues are addressed.

Key Grievance Behind Populist Movements: Workers, Especially Men Without Degrees, Face Declining Prospects as Resources Go To Foreign Interventions, Trade Favors Corporate Profits, and Immigration Policies Neglect Communities

One key grievance in populist movements is the declining prospects for workers, especially men without degrees, as factory closures and relocations move manufacturing jobs to lower-cost countries. Trade agreements, automation, and profit-driven corporate decisions undermine economic security and social status, particularly for those in traditional industries. The perceived lack of government support while jobs are lost to cheaper labor markets such as China and India, and news of immigrants arriving as communities feel neglected, erodes trust and inflames resentment.

Women with advanced degrees in urban and suburban areas are now beginning to worry about their own prospects, fearing that AI-driven job displacement in white-collar professions could become the next trigger for populist political mobilization. Bremmer predicts that this wave of discontent will become politically potent by 2028, though the leaders who will channel this energy are not yet visible.

Immigration is perceived to be accelerating, and as government investment in struggling communities declines, resentment grows and demands for political revolution intensify. Europeans and Americans alike are anxious that advanced technologies will undermine their jobs, especially in knowledge fields.

Ai and Data Center Expansion Sparks Political Backlash Over Resource Strain and Lack of Community Input

Bremmer describes how the expansion of AI and data center infrastructure is becoming a new flashpoint for political backlash. Senators report growing constituent anger over data centers and AI projects driving up energy costs, causing water scarcity, spoiling the visual landscape, and bringing economic changes—yet all without local residents’ input or benefit. The rapid construction of these facilities and the lack of democratic accountability breeds further alienation and resentment among citizens.

AI-driven job displacement is another potential catalyst for major political change. Without proactive governance ...

China is positioning itself as a dominant force in future-defining technologies and advanced manufacturing, leveraging its long-term strategic approach to challenge the global leadership of the United States and Europe.

China Leads Future-Defining Technologies: Semiconductors, AI, Battery Tech, EVs, Rare Earth Processing

China achieves significant parity or leadership in key technologies that will shape the next decades. Chinese technology firms are advancing rapidly in artificial intelligence, and in some domains, now match or surpass Western competitors. In battery technology and electric vehicles (EVs), China’s dominance presents a direct challenge to global automotive leaders by controlling essential components and setting industry standards.

China’s semiconductor industry is making important progress in domestic chip design and manufacturing, aiming to reduce the country’s vulnerability from heavy reliance on Taiwan’s TSMC. The ability to manufacture cutting-edge chips domestically will allow China to insulate itself from potential disruptions and exert more control over global supply chains for both consumer and military technology.

U.S. Retains Advantages in Currency, Military, and Stability, but Political Dysfunction Erodes These; China Thrives With Long-Term Investments Minus Electoral Pressures

Ian Bremmer notes that the U.S. still holds significant advantages. The dollar remains the global reserve currency, giving Americans tremendous leeway, such as printing money, running deficits, and keeping interest rates low. Military superiority also remains firmly with the U.S.; China’s military is still only a fraction of American capabilities. While China is building up both its nuclear and conventional forces, Bremmer points out that China has never fought a naval war and it has been decades since its last ground war, limiting its practical capabilities.

However, Bremmer argues that America's greatest threat is not China but domestic dysfunction. U.S. advantages in currency and military strength are being undercut by poor strategy, reduced global credibility, underinvestment in technology, regulatory sluggishness, and political gridlock. Meanwhile, China avoids these issues by sidestepping electoral cycles and pursuing long-term investments that set the stage for future dominance. China’s non-convertible currency and capital restrictions provide insulation from destabilizing financial flows, helping the country avoid the kind of political instability that worries Chinese leaders.

China to Dominate Tech and Manufacturing By Controlling Advanced Material and Technology Su ...