What the Houthis Really Want
Dive into the complex world of Yemen's shifting power dynamics with "The Daily," as Michael Barbaro, alongside reporters like Vivian Nereim, delves deep into the story of how the Houthis evolved from cultural revivalists into a formidable political force. Discover the group's improbable ascension to control Yemen's capital in the wake of the Arab Spring and the strategic implications it holds not just for Yemen but also for its neighbors, particularly Saudi Arabia. From rural tribe to governing rebels, the Houthis have managed to maintain power against all odds, leaving a region recalibrating in response to their rise.
The episode also explores the intricate challenges faced by the United States as it grapples with the Houthi movement—a dilemma compounded by historical US military engagements in the Middle East. With a narrative emphasizing divine destiny and a readiness for broader conflict, the Houthis have steadfastly positioned themselves in the geopolitical arena, invoking a cautious play between militaristic retaliation and diplomatic hesitation from global powers. Tune into this exploration with "The Daily," where geopolitical analysis meets the rich, nuanced storytelling of skilled journalists.
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1-Page Summary
The Houthis' surprising rise to power in Yemen
The Houthis, a Shia Islamic tribe originating in Northern Yemen, transformed from a cultural revivalist movement into a political powerhouse. They rose in the aftermath of the 2003 Iraq invasion, as dissatisfaction with government corruption and foreign influence grew. In 2014, following the chaos of the Arab Spring and the fall of Yemeni leader Ali Abdullah Saleh, the Houthis seized control of the capital, Sana'a. Despite being perceived as underdogs, they overcame the Saudi-led coalition in a brutal civil war, solidifying their power and raising concerns in Saudi Arabia due to Yemen's strategic importance and its potential regional impact.
The war in Gaza as an opportunity
For the Houthis, the conflict in Gaza presented a chance to reinforce their anti-American and anti-Israeli ideology while struggling to transition from rebels to governing a shattered Yemen. They capitalized on the war to rally support by aligning with the Palestinian cause and executing aggressive actions, such as missile launches towards Israel and targeting vessels in the Red Sea. These acts of solidarity with Palestinians helped the Houthis maintain their image as a heroic resistance force amidst the challenges of providing basic governance services.
The Houthis' confidence and goals
The Houthis view themselves as divinely chosen, demonstrating a confident and unyielding stance. Their goals stretch beyond ending the siege of Gaza, aiming for continued relevance, power, and popularity. Invigorated by a sense of divine protection, they are ready for a wider conflict with Israel's allies and express audacity at the prospect of a direct confrontation with the US. Drawing inspiration from historical US military failures, the Houthis believe in their capacity to withstand and win against American military might.
The complications for the US
The US struggles with how to counter the Houthi movement as both military retaliation and diplomatic inaction pose risks. Retaliation may reinforce the Houthis’ narrative and escalate tensions, while inaction is untenable given the impacts on global trade and maritime security. Strikes and designating them as terrorists have proven ineffective at containment. US allies suggest that peace in Gaza may defuse Houthi aggression, but there is a risk in appearing to capitulate to their hostile measures. The US is challenged with responding effectively to Houthi provocations without bolstering their aggression or undermining those who oppose the Houthis’ tactics.
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Clarifications
- The conflict in Gaza provided the Houthis with an opportunity to align themselves with the Palestinian cause, reinforcing their anti-American and anti-Israeli stance. By engaging in aggressive actions during the Gaza conflict, such as missile launches towards Israel, the Houthis aimed to bolster their image as a resistance force while navigating the challenges of governing Yemen. This alignment helped the Houthis maintain support and project themselves as a formidable force in the region.
- The Houthi movement, rooted in Shia Islam, initially focused on cultural revivalism in Northern Yemen. Over time, they transitioned into a powerful political entity, seizing control of the Yemeni capital and engaging in conflicts to solidify their position. Their ideology evolved to include anti-American and anti-Israeli sentiments, using conflicts like the one in Gaza to bolster their image as a resistance force. The Houthis' confidence in their divine mandate drives their ambitious goals, including challenging regional powers and expressing readiness for direct confrontations with the US.
- The challenges the US faces in responding to the Houthi movement stem from the delicate balance between military action and diplomatic measures. Military retaliation risks validating the Houthis' narrative and escalating tensions, while diplomatic inaction could have repercussions on global trade and maritime security. Previous strategies like strikes and terrorist designations have not effectively contained the Houthi threat, leaving the US in a complex position of needing to respond decisively without inadvertently fueling further aggression. Peace efforts in Gaza are suggested as a potential solution, but there is a concern about the perception of yielding to hostile Houthi actions.
Counterarguments
- The Houthis' rise to power may not solely be attributed to dissatisfaction from the Iraq invasion; regional dynamics and internal Yemeni politics also played significant roles.
- The fall of Ali Abdullah Saleh and the subsequent power vacuum could be seen as a more direct cause of the Houthi takeover than the Arab Spring itself.
- The notion that the Houthis overcame the Saudi-led coalition might be contested, as the conflict in Yemen has seen various shifts in control and no definitive victory.
- The Houthis' actions in the Red Sea and missile launches might be interpreted not just as solidarity with Palestinians but also as strategic military maneuvers to strengthen their bargaining position.
- The view that the Houthis are divinely chosen is subjective and may not be universally accepted even within Yemen or among all Houthi supporters.
- The goals of the Houthis could be more complex and nuanced than simply aiming for relevance, power, and popularity.
- The effectiveness of US strikes and the designation of the Houthis as terrorists could be debated, with some arguing that these measures have had some impact on the Houthi's operations and international relations.
- The suggestion that peace in Gaza could defuse Houthi aggression assumes a direct correlation that may not take into account other factors influencing Houthi behavior.
- The US's struggle with countering the Houthi movement might be seen as part of a broader challenge of engaging in Middle Eastern politics, where simplistic binary choices of action or inaction do not capture the complexity of the situation.
- The idea that US inaction is untenable might be challenged by those who advocate for a more restrained foreign policy approach, arguing that local actors should take the lead in resolving regional conflicts.
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The Houthis' surprising rise to power in Yemen
Vivian Nereim describes the dramatic ascent of the Houthis in Yemen, outlining their transformation from a less powerful group to a formidable force capable of challenging international interests and global trade through aggressive actions in the Red Sea.
Origins: a Shia Islamic tribe and cultural revivalist movement in Northern Yemen
The Houthis originate from a Shia Islamic tribe in Northern Yemen. They began as a cultural revivalist movement and gradually evolved into a political force.
Gained prominence opposing government corruption and foreign influence after 2003 Iraq invasion
The group grew in prominence by positioning themselves as warriors against government corruption and foreign influence, particularly in the context of the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003. The invasion ignited anti-American sentiment, which the Houthis incorporated into their expanding ideology.
Seized control of Yemen's capital and institutions in 2014
Amid the tumult of the Arab Spring and the fall of Yemen's long-time leader, Ali Abdullah Saleh, the Houthis capitalized on the chaos to overtake the Yemeni capital, Sana'a, in 2014. This ...
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The Houthis' surprising rise to power in Yemen
Additional Materials
Clarifications
- The Houthis, a Shia Islamic tribe in Northern Yemen, initially focused on cultural revivalism before transitioning into a significant political entity. They gained prominence by opposing government corruption and foreign influence, particularly after the 2003 Iraq invasion. In 2014, amidst the Arab Spring, they seized control of Yemen's capital, Sana'a, solidifying their position as a de facto government. Despite being considered underdogs, the Houthis managed to defeat the Saudi-led coalition in a brutal civil war, consolidating their power in Yemen.
- The U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003 was a military operation led by the United States with the goal of removing Saddam Hussein from power. The invasion was controversial and sparked global debates on the justification for military intervention. It resulted in significant political and social consequences in the region, including the rise of various insurgent groups and sectarian tensions. The aftermath of the invasion continues to shape geopolitics in the Middle East and influence regional dynamics to this day.
- The Arab Spring was a series of protests and uprisings across the Middle East and North Africa in 2010-2012, demanding political reforms and greater freedoms. In Yemen, the movement led to widespread demonstrations against President Ali Abdullah Saleh's regime. Saleh's eventual resignation in 2012 marked a significant turning point in Yemen's political landscape, setting the stage for power struggles and the rise of various factions, including the Houthis. The Arab Spring's aftermath in Yemen was marked by political instability, violence, and competing interests, contributing to the complex dynamics that allowed the Houthis to seize power in the country.
- The brutal civil war in Yemen involves multiple factions, including the internationally recognized government, Houthi rebels, and southern separatists. The conflict has caused a severe humanitarian crisis, with widespread famine and disease affec ...
Counterarguments
- The Houthis' rise to power may not be solely attributed to their opposition to corruption and foreign influence; regional dynamics and alliances, as well as economic factors, likely played significant roles.
- The characterization of the Houthis' ascent as "surprising" could be contested by experts who have closely followed the political and social developments in Yemen, suggesting that there were indicators of their growing influence.
- The notion that the Houthis defeated the Saudi-led coalition might be oversimplified, as the conflict in Yemen has seen various shifts in control and ongoing violence, with no clear resolution or total defeat of one side by the other.
- The framing of the Houthis' control over Yemen's capital as a straightforward seizure might overlook the complex political negotiations and alliances that facilitated their rise, including their temporary alliance with former President Ali Abdullah Saleh.
- The description of th ...
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The war in Gaza as an opportunity
The conflict in Gaza is proving to be a critical moment for the Houthis, providing them a chance to bolster support and pursue their ideological goals amid challenges of governance.
Struggling to transition from rebels to governors of a shattered country
Since their inception, the Houthis have primarily been a rebel group, which has made the transition to governing especially difficult. In 2023, as the de facto rulers of Yemen, they are under mounting pressure to deliver basic services and clear backlogs of unpaid civil servant wages, with many employees going years without proper compensation. Nereim observes that for the Houthis, continuous combat seems easier compared to the daunting task of administering a country devastated by prolonged conflicts.
War presented chance to rally support and serve their anti-Israel, anti-US ideology
The war in Gaza has provided the Houthis with an opportune moment to reinforce their support and advance their staunch an ...
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The war in Gaza as an opportunity
Additional Materials
Clarifications
- The Houthis, also known as Ansar Allah, are a Shia Muslim political and armed movement in Yemen. They originated in the northern part of Yemen and have been involved in multiple uprisings against the Yemeni government. The group is named after its founder, Hussein Badreddin al-Houthi, who led the movement until his death in 2004. The Houthis have a history of challenging the central government's authority and have been engaged in conflicts with both the Yemeni government and external forces, including Saudi Arabia and the United States.
- Governance in a war-torn country like Yemen involves challenges such as providing basic services, paying civil servant wages, and rebuilding infrastructure amidst ongoing conflicts. Rebel groups like the Houthis face difficulties transitioning from fighters to administrators, as the demands of governance require different skills and resources. The devastation caused by prolonged conflicts complicates efforts to establish stability and meet the needs of the population. Effective governance in such contexts requires addressing immediate humanitarian concerns while also laying the groundwork for long-term stability and development.
- The conflict in Gaza has allowed the Houthis to showcase their anti-American and anti-Israeli ideology by positioning themselves as defenders of the Palestinian cause through aggressive actions like targeting vessels in the Red Sea and launching missiles towards Israel. This serves to strengthen their base of support and reinforce their image as a resistance force aligned with their long-standing ideological beliefs.
- ...
Counterarguments
- The Houthis' involvement in the Gaza conflict could be seen as opportunistic and may not genuinely reflect a commitment to the Palestinian cause but rather a strategic move to gain political leverage.
- Portraying the Houthis as protectors of the Palestinian cause could be challenged by their record in Yemen, where their governance has been associated with human rights abuses and authoritarian practices.
- The idea that continuous combat is easier for the Houthis than governance might overlook the complexities of insurgency movements transitioning into political power, which often involves a steep learning curve and adaptation.
- The Houthis' anti-American and anti-Israeli stance could be criticized for potentially exacerbating regional tensions and hindering efforts towards peace and stability in the Middle East.
- The actions of targeting vessels and launching missiles could be seen as escalatory and counterproductive to the Houthis' stated goals of supporting the Palestinian cause, as they may invite international condemnation and ...
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The Houthis' confidence and goals
Nereim conveys the Houthis' perspective on their position and ambitions, demonstrating that this group perceives itself as divinely mandated and possessing the resilience and determination to continue its struggle against powerful adversaries.
See themselves as divinely chosen and protected
The Houthi movement believes themselves to be on a divine path, bolstered by a conviction that God is on their side which instills a sense of fearlessness within them. This sense of divine backing has become a cornerstone of their confidence and rhetoric.
Goal is continued relevance, power, popularity - not ending siege of Gaza
It is clear from the Houthis' statements and actions that their objectives are broader than the conflict in Gaza. They aim to maintain their relevance, acquire more power, and enhance their popularity. They frame their actions as a moral crusade for justice, but on the ground outcomes suggest that increasing their influence and control is also a significant motivation.
Ready and eager for expanded war with Israel's allies
There is an eagerness among the Houthis for an expanded conflict which could involve the allies of Israel. While the transcript does not provide specifics about readiness for war with Israel's allies, the Houthis have demonstrated little inclination to halt their struggle, particularly against Western interests around the Red Sea.
Believe they can withstand and defeat US military int ...
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The Houthis' confidence and goals
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Clarifications
- The Houthis are a rebel group in Yemen known formally as Ansar Allah. They originated as a religious and political movement in the early 1990s. The group is named after its founder, Hussein Badreddin al-Houthi, and they follow Zaidi Shia Islam. The Houthis have been involved in multiple conflicts in Yemen, including the ongoing civil war that began in 2014.
- The Houthis draw parallels to historical conflicts like Afghanistan and Vietnam to showcase their confidence in facing and defeating the United States in a military engagement. These historical conflicts are known for the challenges they posed to the U.S. military and are often referenced in discussions about confronting powerful ...
Counterarguments
- The belief in divine protection could be seen as a subjective interpretation that may not resonate with all parties, especially those who do not share the same religious convictions.
- The Houthis' goals may be more complex, with humanitarian concerns and the well-being of their constituents also playing a role in their actions, not solely power and popularity.
- Eagerness for expanded conflict might be a rhetorical stance rather than a practical desire, as war often brings significant suffering and destruction to all involved parties ...
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The complications for the US
The United States faces a complex dilemma in dealing with the Houthi movement's actions in the Middle East. With options for retaliation and diplomatic pressure both carrying significant risks, policy makers are confronted with a situation where easy solutions are not available.
Retaliation risks playing into Houthi goals and hands
Nereim highlights the risk of U.S. retaliation against the Houthis, suggesting that such actions could be perceived as legitimizing the group by recognizing them as worthy targets. This could play into the Houthis’ narrative and potentially exacerbate the conflict.
Inaction also untenable given attacks on trade and ships
While the specifics around attacks on trade and ships were not mentioned in the provided content, it's implied that inaction on the part of the U.S. is also not a viable option. The failure of the airstrikes to deter the Houthis from aggression indicates the need for a response that can effectively protect economic interests and global shipping.
Strikes failed to deter or contain Houthis so far
The U.S. declared the Houthis a terrorist organization as a move to pressure them to stop the attacks, indicating that previous military responses, including airstrikes and armed retaliation, have not successfully contained Houthi aggression.
Allies say resolving Gaza war only path to defusing Houthis
Amidst the multifaceted challenges, U.S. regional allies like Qatar and Oman believe that a resolution to the Gaza conflict may be the only viable path to de-escalate tensions and address the threats by the Houthis. They su ...
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The complications for the US
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Clarifications
- The conflicts in the Middle East are interconnected due to shared histories, alliances, and rivalries among various countries and groups. Actions in one conflict can have ripple effects on others, creating a complex web of relationships and dependencies. Resolving one conflict may impact the dynamics of others, making it challenging to a ...
Counterarguments
- The complexity of the situation does not necessarily mean that there are no viable solutions, but rather that the solutions may require more nuanced, multi-faceted approaches that have not yet been fully explored or implemented.
- While retaliation might risk legitimizing the Houthi movement, it could also serve as a deterrent if conducted strategically and in conjunction with a broader political and diplomatic strategy.
- Inaction could be re-framed as strategic patience, allowing for the development of a more comprehensive approach that addresses the root causes of the conflict rather than just its symptoms.
- The failure of strikes to deter the Houthis could indicate the need for a reassessment of military tactics or a shift towards non-military means of engagement.
- The suggestion that resolving the Gaza conflict could defuse the Houthi situation assumes a direct link between the two, which may not fully account for the distinct political and social dynamics at play in each context.
- The idea that seeking a ceasefire could reward ...
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