In this episode of NPR's Book of the Day, Hannah Lucinda Smith discusses her book examining "hinterlands"—strategic border regions that sit between competing spheres of influence like Russia, Turkey, and the West. Smith argues that these peripheral territories are often dismissed as backwaters, but they actually represent dangerous weak spots where unresolved conflicts can escalate into global crises.
The conversation explores how the 2011 Syrian uprising transformed into a proxy war that accelerated Russia-West tensions and provided a testing ground for modern hybrid warfare tactics. Smith traces how regional powers like Putin's Russia and Erdogan's Turkey exploit instability in these frontier zones, from the Caucasus to the Balkans, to advance their geopolitical interests. The episode examines how conflicts in these overlooked regions shape international relations and why understanding hinterlands is crucial for anticipating future territorial shifts.

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Hannah Lucinda Smith defines "hinterlands" as peripheral territories that historically sat at the edges of great empires like the Ottoman, Russian, Persian, and British. Today, these same regions exist between competing spheres of influence—Russia under Putin, Turkey under Erdogan, and the collective West represented by the EU and NATO. Smith emphasizes that despite being dismissed as "overlooked" or "backwaters," these areas are actually strategic zones where geopolitical tensions concentrate.
Smith argues that the neglect of these hinterlands creates dangerous "weak spots" where minor conflicts can rapidly escalate into global crises. She points to flashpoints like Nagorno-Karabakh in the Caucasus and post-Yugoslavia regions like Bosnia and Kosovo, where unresolved conflicts produced only an "imperfect stasis" rather than lasting peace. These unstable conditions allow ambitious leaders like Putin and Erdogan to exploit weaknesses and challenge Western interests.
Mary Louise Kelly draws a provocative comparison between Damascus in 2011 and Sarajevo in 1914, illustrating how Syria became the spark for a new phase of international confrontation. When protests erupted in Damascus in early 2011, the uprising quickly escalated into a civil war that attracted global powers. Russia and Iran backed Assad's regime, while Turkey, Qatar, and Western nations supported his opponents—creating a proxy war that resembled World War II-era confrontations.
Smith argues that the Syrian conflict intensified Russia-West rivalries, providing Putin an opportunity to openly challenge NATO expansion. For those analyzing Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Smith contends the roots lie in the aftermath of Syria's 2011 conflict. The Syrian war also introduced hybrid warfare tactics—cyber attacks, disinformation campaigns, and economic sanctions—that have since become standard features of modern geopolitical competition.
Smith emphasizes that Putin had pursued aggressive policies to reclaim traditional Russian territories well before 2011, driven by longstanding grievances against NATO expansion. The Syrian conflict accelerated these ambitions, prompting direct confrontation with the West.
Meanwhile, Erdogan's Turkey became increasingly problematic for NATO after 2011, with Turkish interventionism in the Middle East and Balkans clashing with Western interests. Smith also notes that peace deals in Bosnia and Kosovo ended warfare but created only fragile conditions that allow Putin and Erdogan to exploit "frozen conflicts" as leverage against the West.
Humans often mistakenly view borders as permanent, but redrawing boundaries fundamentally alters realities for affected populations and inevitably brings trauma and violence. Modern conflicts increasingly rely on "hybrid war" tactics—cyber attacks, disinformation, and sanctions—that blur conventional distinctions between war and peace. These tactics, which grew prominent after Syria, allow states to advance geopolitical interests without direct military escalation. Given these dynamics, the long-term configuration of hinterlands and spheres of influence remains uncertain, with territorial arrangements likely to evolve dramatically in coming decades.
1-Page Summary
Hannah Lucinda Smith describes "hinterlands" as peripheral territories historically and currently at the edges of great empires. These regions have consistently found themselves sitting on the fringes—overlooked and often neglected by major centers of power. In the past, they marked the margins of empires like the Ottoman, Russian, Persian, and to some extent the British empires. In the present day, these same areas now lie between the spheres of influence held by modern powers: primarily the Russian sphere under Vladimir Putin, the Turkish sphere under Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and the collective West, embodied by entities such as the European Union and NATO. These hinterlands are not only geographically but also politically and culturally pulled between competing interests, making them dynamic and contested zones as great powers vie for control of these strategically situated regions.
Smith repeatedly emphasizes that these hinterlands are often dismissed as "overlooked," "neglected," or "backwaters." Despite their seeming insignificance to outsiders, their peripheral location actually places them at the intersection or the "fraying" edges of greater geopolitical landscapes. The regions once on the margins of the Ottoman, Russian, Persian, and British empires now serve as volatile buffer zones between Russian, Turkish, and Western interests. Major powers are drawn to these territories for their strategic value, intensifying the tension as each seeks to assert influence or prevent the encroachment of a rival.
Smith argues that the very neglect and dynamic nature of these hinterlands produce "weak spots" where geopolitical friction is amplified. Minor conflicts in these peripheral areas can rapidly escalate if mishandled by external actors, creating scenarios where local clashes threaten to spark larger global crises. Smith highlights flashpoints such as Nag ...
Definition and Significance of "Hinterlands" in Border Regions Between Competing Spheres
Mary Louise Kelly draws a provocative parallel between Damascus in 2011 and Sarajevo in 1914, the latter being the flashpoint for World War I. This comparison, central to Hannah Lucinda Smith's book Hinterlands, illuminates how localized upheaval in Syria ignited a sequence of international conflicts and new forms of geopolitical rivalry.
In late 2010, the Arab world witnessed a surge of popular protests, known as the Arab Spring. These uprisings, beginning in Tunisia and spreading through Egypt and Libya, initially bypassed Syria. However, by early 2011, protests erupted in Damascus and rapidly escalated into a civil war.
Unlike conflicts in Libya, the Syrian civil war quickly became a stage for global power struggles. Russia and Iran strongly and openly supported Bashar al-Assad's regime, while Assad’s political and armed opponents were backed by a coalition including Turkey, Qatar, the US (to a degree), the UK, and France. This alignment of global powers around the Syrian conflict resembled the confrontation patterns last seen during World War II, marking a new phase of international proxy warfare.
The Syrian crisis provided a focal point for underlying geopolitical tensions between Russia and the West. Vladimir Putin had been vocal about his concerns regarding NATO’s eastward expansion and, in the years preceding the Syrian war, Russia had been consolidating its own sphere of influence, positioning itself as a rival bloc to Western alliances. The Syrian war acted as a spark—bringing these simmering rivalries into the open.
For those analyzing the causes of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Smith argues that the roots lie in the aftermath of the 2011 Syrian conflict. The confrontation and ...
From Regional Conflicts to Global Confrontations: Syria Case Study
Hannah Lucinda Smith emphasizes that the current geopolitical environment is fertile ground for leaders like Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan to create challenges and instability for the West.
Smith points out that it was not only in 2011 that Vladimir Putin began pursuing a more aggressive stance to reclaim what he perceives as traditional Russian territories. These ambitions had been evident for some time, driven by longstanding grievances against NATO’s expansion towards Russia’s borders. The Syrian conflict marked a turning point, accelerating Russia's assertive policies in the region and pushing Putin to act directly to counter Western influence through both military and political means.
The escalation of the Syrian conflict served as a watershed moment, prompting Putin to bring longstanding frustrations with NATO into open confrontation and further motivate efforts to reassert Russian dominance in contested areas.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan's leadership brought a pronounced shift in Turkish foreign policy post-2011, increasing Turkish assertiveness and interventionism in both the Middle East and the Balkans. Smith observes that Erdogan became significantly more problematic for NATO after the Syrian conflict began, with these trends building steadily over time. Turkish moves have increasingly clashe ...
Russia, Turkey, and Western Influences Causing Tension and Instability
Humans often mistakenly regard current borders in longstanding, stable nations—such as the US or UK—as permanent. This perspective overlooks the inherent dynamism of borders throughout history. Redrawing borders is never a simple administrative act or the mere redrawing of lines on a map. Such changes fundamentally alter realities for the people living in affected regions, and these alterations are inevitably accompanied by trauma, tension, and the potential for violence or conflict.
Modern conflicts increasingly rely on “hybrid war,” a collection of tactics that blur conventional distinctions between war and peace. This form of warfare includes cyber attacks, widespread misinformation and disinformation campaigns, and the strategic use and circumvention of sanctions. The prominence of these tactics grew notably after the Syrian conflict, marking a new era in global competition. Hybrid tactics empower states to achieve covert objectives and advance geopolitical interests without resorting to direct military esc ...
Borders' Dynamics and "Hybrid War" in Modern Conflicts
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