In this episode of Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin, Lauren Simmons joins to discuss how the Iran conflict has driven oil prices sharply higher and created ripple effects throughout the global economy. They explore the connections between oil prices, inflation, the U.S. dollar's strength as a safe haven, and Federal Reserve policy, while examining how these dynamics impact both domestic markets and emerging economies holding dollar-denominated debt.
Simmons and Lapin offer practical investment guidance for navigating volatile markets, emphasizing long-term focus over daily reactions and the importance of diversification across asset classes. They discuss strategies including dollar-cost averaging, dividend reinvestment, and sector-specific ETFs, while addressing the current role of alternative assets like precious metals and cryptocurrencies in portfolio construction. The conversation provides frameworks for aligning investments with personal risk tolerance and financial goals during periods of geopolitical uncertainty.

Sign up for Shortform to access the whole episode summary along with additional materials like counterarguments and context.
The Iran conflict has driven Brent crude oil prices from $65 to $107 per barrel, creating significant ripple effects across the global economy. Lauren Simmons explains that this surge stems from regional instability and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. These higher oil prices directly increase transportation costs, which filter through supply chains and ultimately raise consumer prices across numerous product categories. Simmons warns that even if the conflict were resolved immediately, the inflationary pressure from this oil price spike will persist for months.
Simmons and Nicole Lapin note that the U.S. dollar has strengthened by about 1.5% to 2% recently as investors seek security amid geopolitical uncertainty. This pattern dates back to the 1970s petrodollar system, which created constant global demand for dollars. However, Simmons points out that the dollar's long-term outlook is less certain—it fell 4% over the past year, and Saudi Arabia declined to renew the petrodollar agreement in 2024. She observes institutional investors diversifying into emerging markets, gold, and silver rather than relying on the dollar's historical dominance.
When oil prices rise, inflation expectations increase across the economy, prompting the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. This makes U.S. assets more attractive and increases dollar demand. However, Simmons and Lapin explain that these dynamics create global consequences: emerging markets like Pakistan and Egypt, which hold dollar-denominated debt and import oil, face soaring costs when the dollar strengthens. Potential defaults in these countries could trigger losses for U.S. investors, creating ripple effects through global markets.
Lapin emphasizes that volatile periods, while overwhelming for investors watching their portfolios, can actually be when the greatest wealth is built. Simmons advises against knee-jerk reactions to market fluctuations, recommending quarterly portfolio reviews instead of obsessing over daily changes. She stresses maintaining focus on long-term goals and avoiding impulsive decisions based on short-term noise.
Both hosts emphasize diversification across stocks, bonds, and commodities given current global uncertainties. Lapin suggests broad-based index funds like VOO for U.S. exposure and VXUS for international diversification. For targeted sector exposure like energy, Simmons recommends reviewing at least one to two years of historical performance and considering ETFs like XLE. She also prefers dividend-paying investments set to reinvest automatically to capitalize on compounding returns.
Lapin highlights dollar-cost averaging—investing regularly in small amounts rather than lump sums—as a prudent approach that smooths out entry points and manages risk. Both hosts stress the importance of aligning investments with personal values through value-based ETFs and ensuring portfolios reflect individual risk tolerance and goals.
Simmons allocates about 10% of her portfolio to gold and silver through ETFs like GLD, SLV, and RING—well above the typical 3% guideline. She notes that while these metals have recently declined due to geopolitical unrest, she remains ahead due to early entry at lower prices. Simmons tracks institutional investor trends through sources like BlackRock's weekly market commentary, which currently favors commodities. However, she would not add to precious metals positions now, preferring to wait for price stabilization after geopolitical tensions ease.
Simmons observes that cryptocurrencies are not currently acting as effective diversifiers, with Bitcoin moving in tandem with technology stocks rather than providing uncorrelated returns. She notes that Bitcoin has been the most underperforming asset class year-to-date according to BlackRock's commentary. Simmons chooses not to invest in crypto due to its volatility and correlation with tech, preferring traditional tech stock exposure instead. Both hosts emphasize the importance of understanding personal risk tolerance and the unique challenges of crypto before allocating capital to this asset class.
1-Page Summary
The ongoing conflict in Iran has driven global oil prices sharply upward, producing significant effects across the entire world economy. Brent crude oil, which serves as a key benchmark for global oil pricing, has surged from about $65 per barrel over the past 12 months to $107 per barrel. Lauren Simmons highlights the gravity of this jump, explaining that such a dramatic increase in oil prices has substantial implications beyond just gasoline costs.
With Brent crude currently trading at $107, the steep increase from the previous average of $65 means that numerous economic sectors will be affected. The main driver behind this surge is the regional instability created by the Iran conflict, especially disruptions to shipping through the crucial Strait of Hormuz. Simmons points out that this volatility doesn’t just impact a single industry—it sets off a ripple effect worldwide.
The price of oil directly influences transportation costs. When oil becomes more expensive, so does shipping, air travel, and freight. As companies pay more to move goods and people, these increased expenses filter through the supply chain and ultimately reach consumers. This leads to higher costs for products, ...
Impact of Oil Prices and Geopolitics on Global Economy
The interplay between oil prices, the U.S. dollar, inflation, and interest rates shapes both the American and global economies, often with dramatic downstream effects.
The U.S. dollar has historically been seen as a "safe haven" during times of global crisis or instability. Lauren Simmons and Nicole Lapin note that, in recent weeks, the dollar has strengthened by about 1.5% to 2% as investors seek security amidst ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. This demand for safety drives global capital into dollar-denominated assets, pushing the value of the dollar higher. This surge in demand is part of a longstanding pattern established in the 1970s when the U.S. struck a deal with Saudi Arabia to price and trade oil exclusively in dollars—creating constant worldwide demand for the dollar (the so-called "petrodollar" system).
Despite this occasional strengthening, the longer-term outlook for the dollar is more complex and uncertain. Lauren Simmons points out that, while the dollar has crept up recently, it fell about 4% over the last year, with the first half of 2025 marking its largest semiannual decline in over half a century. In 2024, Saudi Arabia even declined to formally renew the petrodollar agreement, raising questions about the dollar's future dominance. Simmons observes institutional investors moving money out of the dollar into emerging markets, gold, and silver as they increasingly question its reliability as a safe haven. She herself views the current instability as a reason to diversify investments and hedge against risk rather than rely on the dollar's historical supremacy.
Oil plays a pivotal role not just in energy but in shipping, food, transportation, and nearly every facet of the global economy. When oil prices rise, the cost of goods and services increases, spurring higher inflation expectations. The Federal Reserve typically responds by raising interest rates to fight this inflation, aiming to stabilize prices but also making U.S. assets more attractive to global investors—thereby increasing demand for the dollar. Simmons and Lapin note that the dollar's value and oil prices are intrinsically linked: as oil rises, so does demand for dollars, since oil is still denominated in ...
Oil, U.S. Dollar, Inflation, and Interest Rate Links
Nicole Lapin and Lauren Simmons discuss how investors can navigate turbulent markets by focusing on diversification, long-term thinking, and regular adjustment rather than reacting impulsively to daily fluctuations.
Nicole Lapin acknowledges the excitement and fear that arise during volatile markets, emphasizing that these are emotional triggers for many investors. She explains that these turbulent times, while overwhelming—especially for those watching their 401(k)s or other long-term portfolios—can actually be the periods when the greatest wealth is built. Lauren Simmons echoes this, noting that it's an important time for novice investors to learn how market dynamics influence investment outcomes, setting strong foundations for their future investing journeys.
Simmons highlights the importance of avoiding knee-jerk reactions to short-term market noise. She advocates for a focus on long-term goals, stating that reviewing portfolios on a quarterly basis is sufficient unless truly catastrophic market events occur. Making decisions based on every small fluctuation can lead to impulsive mistakes; instead, investors should stay focused on their broader objectives and maintain discipline amid market volatility.
Both Lapin and Simmons emphasize the value of diversification, especially given global uncertainties and questions over the US dollar's status as a safe haven. Simmons is allocating her investments to ensure her portfolio is hedged for current instability, spanning across stocks, bonds, and commodities. Lapin suggests broad-based index funds like VOO for US market exposure and VXUS for international diversification, while Simmons affirms that VXUS is a strong element in her own portfolio.
The discussion covers exposure to sectors like energy and defense, often only representing a small percentage (3-5%) of major indices like the S&P 500. For those wanting to tilt more heavily toward commodities, energy ETFs like XLE can serve as benchmarks. Simmons advises reviewing at least one to two years' worth of historical performance before picking individual energy stocks, as short-term gains might be misleading. She also prefers stocks and ETFs that offer consistent dividends, setting these to reinvest automatically ("DRIP") to capitalize on compounding returns.
Lapin and Simmons further address the importance of aligning investments with personal values. They recommend value-based ETFs for investors wishing to exclude sectors like oil, defense, tobacco, or private prisons. For those interested in the infrastructure and materials powering emerging industries, Lapin notes the opportunity to invest in companies supplying essential resources—like lithium—through careful research.
Lauren Simmons reiterates that investors should avoid obsessing over daily market shifts, recommending quarterly portfolio reviews as ideal for most. During highly volatile periods, small, thoughtful adjustments may be warranted, but wholesale changes based on transient news risk undermining long-term objectives. Dollar-cost averaging—investing regularly in small amounts, rather than in one lump sum—is highlighted by Lapin as a prudent approach, mitigating risk by smoothing out entry points over time.
For example, rather than in ...
Investment Strategies and Portfolio Diversification in Volatile Markets
Nicole Lapin and Lauren Simmons discuss the nuanced roles of precious metals and cryptocurrencies in an investment portfolio, emphasizing hedging strategies, timing, and asset-specific risks.
Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, are often considered effective hedges against inflation and periods of uncertainty. Lauren Simmons shares that she allocates about 10% of her portfolio to gold and silver—well above the typical guideline of 3%. Even with recent price drops due to geopolitical unrest, Simmons remains ahead because of her early entry, buying gold and silver ETFs such as GLD, SLV, and RING when prices were lower. She points out that the movement of these metals is influenced by broader economic and geopolitical factors and tracks institutional investor trends through sources like BlackRock’s weekly market commentary, which currently favors commodities and emerging markets.
Simmons and Lapin both stress the importance of doing individual research before investing, paying close attention to ETF expense ratios, potential fees, and long-term trends. Simmons highlights that, at the moment, metals have declined in value due to instability caused by war, so she would not currently add to GLD or SLV. She suggests waiting for prices to stabilize, perhaps after geopolitical tensions ease, but still sees value in gradually increasing exposure over the coming one to two years. Lapin emphasizes disciplined entry strategies, investing in increments rather than all at once.
ETFs like GLD (gold) and SLV (silver) allow investors to access precious metals with relatively low fees compared to mutual funds. Simmons notes that while these ETFs are in decline now, they can be worthwhile additions in stable or recovering markets. Lapin and Simmons agree that it’s important to weigh current market conditions, personal investing goals, and expense ratios before entering or increasing positions. They recommend dollar-cost averaging, investing smaller amounts steadily rather than making large, single purchases.
The discussion shifts to crypto assets, primarily Bitcoin. Simmons observes that cryptocurrencies are not currently acting as effective diversifiers or hedges. Instead of being uncorrelated as initially promised, major assets like Bitcoin have moved in tandem with technology stocks. Simmons references BlackRock’s market commentary, stating that Bitcoin has been the most underperforming asset class year-to-date. She chooses not to invest in cryptocurrencies because of their volatility and correlation with the tech sector, preferring to gain exposure to innovation and risk through trad ...
Alternative Assets' Role and Performance: Precious Metals & Crypto
Download the Shortform Chrome extension for your browser
