Democrats vs Republicans: Who Is Actually More Violent? - Robert Pape #1154
In this episode of Modern Wisdom, Robert Pape examines the rise of violent populism in America, arguing that the primary threat to democracy now comes not from foreign adversaries or fringe groups, but from tens of millions of citizens who express support for political violence. Pape presents survey data showing extraordinary increases in support for violence across the political spectrum, driven by rapid demographic shifts and rising wealth inequality that create existential anxieties about political power and cultural identity.
Pape challenges conventional stereotypes about who engages in political violence, revealing that perpetrators increasingly come from educated, middle-class backgrounds rather than marginalized communities. The conversation covers the mechanisms through which social media normalizes violence, the dangerous dynamics surrounding upcoming elections, and the absence of leadership willing to unify Americans against violence. Pape emphasizes that political figures are symptoms rather than causes of these deeper social transformations affecting mature Western democracies worldwide.
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1-Page Summary
Violent Populism in America: Definition, Statistics, and Manifestations
According to Robert Pape, the main threat to American democracy is now tens of millions of citizens expressing support for political violence—far beyond the threat of foreign governments or fringe extremist groups. Pape distinguishes violent populism from ordinary populism by its direct support for violence as a political tool. Unlike past eras where political violence came from small, isolated groups, today's violent populism emerges across the political spectrum, normalized through a "cascade effect" where each violent episode raises acceptance of future violence.
Recent surveys reveal extraordinary increases in support for political violence. By September 2025, 14% of Americans supported anti-Trump violence, and after Charlie Kirk's assassination, 65% of American adults—about 65 million—supported using force to prevent Trump from becoming president. Pro-Trump violent populism is also pronounced, with 16% of Americans supporting using the military against Democratic protesters. Combined, roughly 100 million Americans currently back some form of political violence.
Three recent instances illustrate this shift: the Summer 2020 George Floyd protests where 5-7% of demonstrations turned violent, the January 6th Capitol attack where 1,600 of 120,000 rally attendees engaged in direct violence, and college campus protests after October 7, 2023. Pape emphasizes that mass support for violence crucially increases its likelihood, as social approval nudges volatile individuals toward action. Social media has accelerated this process, offering instant validation and magnifying the normalization effect.
Root Causes: Demographic Shifts, Wealth Inequality Fueling Existential Politics
The United States is experiencing rapid social changes driven by significant demographic shifts and rising wealth inequality. In 1990, 76% of Americans were non-Hispanic white; today that figure has dropped to 57%, with projections reaching 49% within 15 to 20 years. For over two centuries, the U.S. population was consistently 80-85% white, making this transformation historically unprecedented. Pape emphasizes this rapid demographic transition is creating acute existential anxiety over political power and cultural dominance, directly driving Donald Trump's rise and focus on immigration.
Surveys reveal Americans who fear whites are being intentionally replaced are four times more likely to support violence for Trump, while those viewing the country as historically racist are 2.5 times as likely to support violence against him. Parallel to demographic change, the top 1% of Americans now hold 26% of the country's wealth, up from 17% in the late 1980s. This creates what Pape calls a "negative sum society," where each year feels like a step backward for the bottom 99%.
Pape stresses the most powerful force behind political violence is not individual leaders but deep, broad social changes. Politicians like Trump or Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez are symptoms rather than causes, reflecting and amplifying anxiety generated by underlying shifts. This dynamic is not peculiar to the United States—other mature Western democracies including Germany, Canada, Britain, and France are witnessing similar patterns.
Who Commits Violence: Educated Middle-Class Profile Contradicts Stereotypes
Pape explains that the prevailing stereotype of political violence perpetrators—young, rural, unemployed militia members—no longer reflects reality. The new typical profile is well-educated, middle-class Americans with nice homes, stable careers, and financial investments. Pape's analysis of all 1,575 individuals prosecuted for January 6th reveals that 45% were established professionals—business owners, doctors, gynecologists, nurse practitioners, and psychologists. Mapping Texas participants' home locations, he finds they overwhelmingly come from affluent suburbs around Dallas and Austin, not poorer or rural regions.
Pape explains these perpetrators believe they are on the brink of losing everything due to political changes and fear for their lifestyle, status, and future if the opposing party comes to power. He references Luigi Mangione, who came from generational wealth and attended the Ivy League University of Pennsylvania, yet engaged in political violence for social justice causes. Another example is Cole Allen, a 31-year-old engineer and Trump's third would-be assassin, who described feeling morally obligated to address social injustices, styling himself as a Robin Hood figure.
Evidence linking support for political violence to actual violence is found in perpetrators' manifestos. After attacking Paul Pelosi, the perpetrator apologized for failing to kill Nancy Pelosi, acknowledging he acted because "they wanted her dead." According to Pape, manifestos commonly include family apologies but also rationalize violence by invoking pain, duty, and the support of a larger community, establishing a link between personal motivations and broader social endorsement.
Elections: The American Domestic Escalation Trap
Pape warns the coming midterm elections represent unprecedented risk, detailing a three-stage process where electoral disputes could escalate into widespread violent conflict. Stage one occurs when razor-thin margins create a "legitimacy shock," leading losers to doubt election validity. Stage two is the congressional certification on January 6, 2027, echoing the events of 2021, where the losing side must decide to accept or contest results. Stage three involves prolonged opposition and potential violence lasting months or years if the losing coalition refuses to concede.
Pape categorizes the upcoming midterms as possibly the most dangerous in living memory, noting Trump has already referenced using the Insurrection Act to suppress potential Democratic protesters. He references his June 2025 New York Times warning about imminent political violence, noting that within months his predictions came true with Charlie Kirk's assassination, Operation Midway Blitz in Chicago, and Metro Blitz in Minneapolis.
Pape connects domestic polarization to foreign policy, noting the Iran war marks the first post-WWII conflict with no "rally around the flag" effect. Public support splits along partisan lines, demonstrating deep existential cleavages in American politics that even foreign propaganda cannot bridge.
Leadership's Lack of Restraint and Anti-Violence Message
Survey data show 65% to 70% of Americans abhor political violence, according to Pape. However, this "silent majority" lacks effective leaders or platforms to amplify their anti-violence consensus. No political leader on any side is willing to make opposition to political violence a top campaign issue, even though this is fundamental to maintaining stability.
Media and political leaders perpetuate a cycle where they attribute opposing violence to ideology while excusing their own side. Left-leaning outlets may dismiss left-affiliated attackers as mentally ill, while right-leaning media use similar approaches for right-wing violence. Pape gives the example of Trump's behavior surrounding January 6th: Trump failed to intervene until hours after violence began, later glorified insurrectionists, and ultimately pardoned all 1,575 prosecuted participants. Efforts such as de-platforming Trump and Tucker Carlson did not reduce violence, as the anger is sustained by deeper social changes, not merely by figureheads.
Pape argues a united, consistent message from all leaders—clearly rejecting violence by their own side—remains essential to combating violent populism. Trump's political strategy demonstrates keen understanding of the stakes many Americans feel about cultural and demographic shifts, often focusing on symbolic social issues that major media dismiss as trivial but resonate deeply with voters anxious about the pace and direction of social transformation.
1-Page Summary
Additional Materials
Clarifications
- Robert Pape is a political scientist specializing in security studies and terrorism. He is known for his research on the causes of suicide terrorism and political violence. Pape's work is widely cited in academic and policy circles, lending credibility to his analysis. His expertise comes from decades of empirical research and data-driven studies.
- The "cascade effect" refers to how one act of political violence increases social acceptance of future violence, creating a self-reinforcing cycle. It lowers psychological barriers, making individuals more likely to imitate or escalate violent behavior. Social media accelerates this by rapidly spreading and validating violent acts. This normalization makes political violence more common and harder to control.
- The Insurrection Act is a U.S. federal law that allows the president to deploy military forces within the country to suppress civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion. Historically, it has been invoked during events like the Civil War, the 1957 Little Rock school integration crisis, and the 1992 Los Angeles riots. Its use is controversial because it involves military intervention in civilian affairs, raising concerns about civil liberties and government overreach. Presidents must typically issue a proclamation ordering the insurgents to disperse before deploying troops under this act.
- The January 6th Capitol attack in 2021 was an unprecedented assault on the U.S. Capitol by supporters of then-President Donald Trump aiming to overturn the 2020 presidential election results. It exposed deep political polarization and challenges to democratic norms in America. The event symbolized a broader crisis of legitimacy and trust in electoral processes among significant portions of the population. It also intensified debates about political violence and the role of leadership in either curbing or encouraging such actions.
- "Non-Hispanic white" refers to individuals who identify as white but do not have Hispanic or Latino ethnic origins. This classification separates race (white) from ethnicity (Hispanic/Latino), which can overlap. It is used in U.S. statistics to provide clearer demographic analysis and track population changes more accurately. This distinction helps understand social, economic, and political trends within specific groups.
- A "negative sum society" describes a situation where economic conditions worsen for most people, meaning the overall wealth or well-being decreases rather than grows. Wealth inequality intensifies this by concentrating resources at the top, leaving fewer gains or even losses for the majority. This creates competition over shrinking opportunities, fueling social tension and conflict. It contrasts with a "positive sum" scenario where economic growth benefits most members of society.
- The "rally around the flag" effect refers to a surge in public support for government and military actions during international conflicts. It often boosts national unity and approval ratings for leaders when a country faces external threats. This effect can temporarily reduce domestic political divisions. Its absence, as noted in the Iran war, indicates deep internal polarization that foreign conflicts cannot overcome.
- Social media platforms amplify political violence by rapidly spreading graphic content and extremist rhetoric, making violent acts more visible and seemingly acceptable. Algorithms prioritize engaging, often sensational content, which can create echo chambers reinforcing users' beliefs and desensitizing them to violence. Online communities provide social validation and encouragement, reducing individuals' inhibitions against violent behavior. This digital environment accelerates the "cascade effect," where each violent incident increases public tolerance and likelihood of future violence.
- Donald Trump is a former U.S. president known for his populist and polarizing rhetoric, which has energized both supporters and opponents. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a progressive Democratic congresswoman representing a younger, more left-leaning political movement. Tucker Carlson is a conservative media commentator influential among right-wing audiences. Their actions and statements shape public opinion and can either escalate or mitigate political violence.
- A "legitimacy shock" occurs when election results are so close or contested that a significant portion of the population doubts their fairness or accuracy. This doubt undermines trust in the electoral system and the authority of the winning candidate. It can trigger political instability and increase the risk of conflict or violence. The shock challenges the foundational belief that elections are a fair way to choose leaders.
- Congressional certification is the formal process where Congress reviews and officially confirms the Electoral College results of a U.S. presidential election. This occurs in a joint session, typically on January 6 following the election year. The certification validates the winner and finalizes the election outcome, making it legally binding. Disputes or objections during this session can delay or challenge the certification but require support from both House and Senate members to succeed.
- Ordinary populism is a political approach that claims to represent the common people against elites without endorsing violence. Violent populism explicitly supports using violence as a legitimate political tool to achieve goals. This shift marks a move from rhetoric to action, normalizing aggression in political conflicts. The "cascade effect" means each violent act increases social acceptance of future violence.
- The percentages indicate a substantial portion of the American population endorses political violence, signaling a shift from fringe to mainstream acceptance. This normalization increases the risk of actual violent acts, as social approval lowers barriers to aggression. The large numbers reflect deep societal divisions and widespread anxiety about political and cultural changes. Such data help quantify the scale of the threat to democratic stability.
- Demographic shifts in the U.S. alter the racial and ethnic composition, influencing political power dynamics and cultural identity. These changes can heighten fears among majority groups about losing influence, fueling social anxiety and political polarization. They also impact policy priorities, electoral strategies, and representation in government. Such shifts often provoke debates over immigration, civil rights, and national identity.
- The stereotype of political violence perpetrators often depicts them as young, uneducated, rural, and economically disadvantaged individuals involved in militias. However, recent research shows many perpetrators are actually well-educated, middle-class professionals with stable jobs and comfortable lifestyles. This shift reflects broader social anxieties among people who feel their status and future are threatened by political and demographic changes. Understanding this new profile challenges assumptions and highlights the complexity behind motivations for political violence.
- Existential anxiety in this context refers to a deep fear that one's identity, values, or social status are threatened by rapid societal changes. It often arises when people perceive their cultural group or way of life is losing influence or being replaced. This fear can drive defensive or aggressive political behavior as a means of preserving perceived existential security. It is intensified by demographic shifts and cultural transformations that challenge long-standing social norms.
- Foreign propaganda refers to efforts by other countries to influence public opinion and political divisions within the United States. It often exploits existing social and political fractures to deepen polarization and mistrust. However, the text notes that deep domestic divisions in the U.S. are so strong that even foreign propaganda cannot unify public opinion or reduce conflict. This highlights that internal social and political issues are the primary drivers of polarization, not external influence.
- De-platforming refers to removing or restricting someone's access to public communication channels, such as social media, television, or speaking events. It aims to limit the spread of their ideas, especially if deemed harmful or inciting violence. This tactic can reduce their influence but may also deepen supporters' grievances or drive discourse underground. Critics argue it raises concerns about free speech and censorship.
Counterarguments
- While surveys indicate increased support for political violence, actual incidents of large-scale political violence remain relatively rare compared to historical periods such as the late 1960s and early 1970s.
- Survey responses about support for violence may not accurately predict real-world behavior, as respondents can overstate or understate their views due to social desirability bias or the abstract nature of survey questions.
- The cited statistics on support for violence may be influenced by question wording, context, or sampling methods, potentially overstating the true level of support.
- The claim that 100 million Americans support political violence may conflate passive agreement with active intent or willingness to participate in violence.
- Political violence in the U.S. remains far less frequent and deadly than in many other countries, both historically and currently.
- The focus on demographic change as a primary driver of political violence may underemphasize other important factors such as media polarization, economic insecurity, or declining trust in institutions.
- The assertion that political leaders universally fail to denounce violence overlooks instances where leaders from both parties have condemned violence and called for peaceful political engagement.
- The characterization of perpetrators as predominantly middle-class professionals may not fully account for the diversity of backgrounds among those involved in political violence.
- The normalization of violence through social media is a concern, but social media also enables rapid dissemination of anti-violence messages and organizing for peaceful protest.
- The comparison to other Western democracies may overlook significant differences in political culture, gun laws, and historical context that affect the prevalence and nature of political violence.
- The lack of a "rally around the flag" effect in foreign policy crises may reflect increased political polarization, but it does not necessarily indicate a direct link to violent populism.
- The effectiveness of de-platforming as a strategy to reduce violence is debated, with some research suggesting it can reduce the reach and influence of extremist content.
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Violent Populism in America: Definition, Statistics, and Manifestations
Political violence in America has entered an unprecedented era. According to Robert Pape, the main threat to democracy is now the tens of millions of Americans who express support for political violence—far eclipsing the threat posed by foreign governments or fringe extremist groups. This support, now lodged in the mainstream, is fundamentally changing the political landscape of the country.
Violent Populism Differs From Ordinary Polarization By Involving Mass Support for Political Violence to Achieve Goals
Pape distinguishes between ordinary populism and violent populism. Ordinary populism involves large segments of society upset with the establishment, leading to political polarization and sometimes peaceful protest. It can fuel massive electoral shifts and increased political participation without necessarily crossing into illegality or violence. Violent populism, however, transforms establishment anger into direct support for political violence as a tool to achieve political goals. This distinguishes it from the past, when such violence was the activity of small, isolated groups or lone individuals.
Pape insists that the era since the beginning of President Trump’s first term is historically unique—neither echoing the 1960s, with nearly all violence on the left, nor the 1920s where it was mostly on the right. Today, violent populism emerges on both sides of the political divide, fueled by mass support for violence and social media's amplification of inflammatory rhetoric. Political violence is thus normalized across the spectrum in a “cascade effect,” where each new violent episode raises acceptance of future violence. Mass support for violence does not require every supporter to act but raises the probability and scale of such acts by giving volatile individuals social approval and a sense of legitimacy.
Survey Shows Rising Support for Political Violence on Both Sides
Recent surveys and focus group data reveal extraordinary increases in public willingness to justify political violence. Several years ago, support for anti-Trump violence stood at just 6-9% of Americans; by September 2025, support had already reached 14%, representing over 30 million people, and after Charlie Kirk’s assassination, an astonishing 65% of American adults—about 65 million—declared support for using force to prevent Trump from becoming president. Forty-four percent of all Democrats polled endorsed this position.
The specifics of this support are troubling. In focus groups, 55% of those backing “force” against Trump meant assassination attempts with rifles, not non-lethal confrontation or rioting. The remaining 45% included those who envisioned January 6-style riots—violent mass actions to prevent political opponents from rising to power.
Pro-Trump violent populism is also pronounced. Sixteen percent of Americans, nearly all Republicans, support using the U.S. military to suppress Democratic protesters—around 40 million people. Combining pro- and anti-Trump support, Pape calculates that roughly 100 million Americans currently back some form of political violence as the nation approaches the midterms.
Three Recent Instances of Collective Political Violence Turning Protests Into Large Confrontations
The new era of violent populism is marked by major, collective, and confrontational episodes rather than isolated acts:
- Summer 2020 George Floyd Protests: Out of approximately 28 million participants across 100 cities, 5-7% of protests turned violent—amounting to well over a million individuals and generating enormous property destruction, including burning police stations and businesses. The vast majority of protesters were unaware of the violence at the time.
- January 6th, 2021 Capitol Attack: Out of 120,000 rally attendees, 10,000 surrounded the Capitol, and 1,600 engaged in direct violence, breaking windows and doors, beating police with flagpoles and bike racks. This core group triggered the day's most violent events while the majority did not participate directly.
- College Campus Protests afte ...
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Violent Populism in America: Definition, Statistics, and Manifestations
Additional Materials
Clarifications
- Robert Pape is a political scientist known for his research on terrorism and political violence. He founded the Chicago Project on Security and Terrorism, which analyzes global patterns of violence. His expertise lends credibility to his analysis of violent populism in America. Pape’s work is widely cited in academic and policy discussions on security threats.
- Populism is a political approach that seeks to represent the interests of ordinary people against a perceived corrupt elite. It often involves rhetoric that divides society into "the people" versus "the establishment." Violent populism escalates this by endorsing or encouraging the use of violence to achieve political goals. This shift turns political dissatisfaction into active, often aggressive, confrontation rather than peaceful advocacy.
- In the 1960s, political violence in America was largely driven by left-wing groups protesting civil rights, the Vietnam War, and social injustices. The 1920s saw right-wing violence, including actions by the Ku Klux Klan and anti-immigrant, anti-communist groups during the Red Scare. Both eras involved smaller, more isolated groups rather than widespread mass support. These periods contrast with today’s bipartisan, mass-supported violent populism.
- Charlie Kirk is a prominent conservative political activist and founder of the organization Turning Point USA. His assassination marked a significant escalation in political violence, shocking the nation and intensifying partisan tensions. The event dramatically increased public support for violent measures against political opponents, as reflected in the surge of approval for force to prevent Trump’s presidency. This assassination symbolized the dangerous consequences of normalized violent populism in America.
- The January 6, 2021 Capitol attack was an event where supporters of then-President Donald Trump stormed the U.S. Capitol building to disrupt the certification of the 2020 presidential election results. The attack resulted in extensive property damage, injuries to law enforcement officers, and several deaths. It exposed deep political divisions and raised concerns about domestic extremism and threats to democratic institutions. The event led to numerous arrests and ongoing investigations into the participants and organizers.
- The George Floyd protests began after George Floyd, a Black man, was killed by a police officer in Minneapolis in May 2020. The incident sparked nationwide demonstrations against police brutality and systemic racism. These protests involved millions of people demanding justice and police reform. While mostly peaceful, some protests included clashes with police and property damage.
- The Weather Underground was a radical left-wing militant organization active in the late 1960s and 1970s. It formed from the Students for a Democratic Society and opposed the Vietnam War and racial injustice. The group conducted bombings of government buildings and banks to protest U.S. policies. Their actions aimed to inspire a broader revolutionary movement, but they failed to gain widespread public support.
- The "cascade effect" refers to a process where each act of political violence increases public acceptance of future violence. This happens because witnessing or hearing about violence lowers social and psychological barriers against it. As acceptance grows, more individuals feel justified or emboldened to engage in violence. Over time, this creates a self-reinforcing cycle that normalizes violent behavior in political conflicts.
- Social media platforms enable rapid, widespread sharing of violent rhetoric and imagery, reaching millions instantly. Algorithms often prioritize sensational or emotionally charged content, increasing exposure to extreme views. Online echo chambers reinforce users' beliefs, reducing exposure to opposing perspectives and normalizing violence. This environment lowers social barriers to violence by making it seem more acceptable and common.
- "Lone-wolf assassins" are individuals who commit violent acts alone, without direct support or coordination from larger groups. They often act based on personal motives but seek validation by aligning with broader social or political causes. Mass movements involve large groups collectively engaging in protests or violence, driven by shared goals and social dynamics. The key difference is scale and organization: lone wolves act solo, while mass movements inv ...
Counterarguments
- While surveys indicate rising support for political violence, expressing support in a poll does not necessarily translate to actual willingness to commit or participate in violence; there is often a significant gap between attitudes and behaviors.
- The cited statistics on support for violence may be influenced by question wording, survey methodology, or respondents’ interpretation of “force” or “violence,” potentially overstating the true level of support for extreme actions like assassination.
- Historical periods such as the Civil War, Reconstruction, and the late 1960s-1970s also saw widespread political violence and mass support for violent movements, challenging the claim that the current era is historically unique in scale or nature.
- The majority of participants in recent mass protests (e.g., George Floyd protests, January 6th) did not engage in violence, suggesting that violent actors remain a minority even within large, polarized movements.
- The role of social media in amplifying political violence is significant, but traditional media, political leaders, and other societal factors also ...
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Root Causes: Demographic Shifts, Wealth Inequality Fueling Existential Politics
The United States is experiencing rapid social changes driven by significant demographic shifts and rising wealth inequality. According to Robert Pape, these root causes are fueling existential politics and a period of violent populism which threaten the fabric of American democracy and are increasingly being mirrored in other mature democracies.
Demographic Shift: White Majority to Minority Status in America Creates Existential Anxiety Over Political Power and Cultural Dominance
The demographic composition of the U.S. has changed rapidly in a single generation. In 1990, 76% of the American population was non-Hispanic white; today that figure has dropped to 57%. If current trends continue, the country is projected to reach 49% non-Hispanic white within the next 15 to 20 years—an imminent tipping point depending in part on immigration and deportation policies. Pape emphasizes that for over two centuries, the U.S. population was consistently between 80% and 85% white, making the current transformation historically unprecedented and politically significant.
This rapid demographic transition is creating acute existential anxiety over which political parties will control the future. The Republican Party, being much more heavily white in composition than the Democratic Party, finds its electoral prospects tied to these demographic trends. The shift not only affects which party wins elections but also the core coalition and policy focus of both major parties.
The demographic transformation is a direct driver of the meteoric rise of Donald Trump, whose presidential campaign and signature immigration issue resonated powerfully with voters anxious about losing cultural and political dominance. Trump’s focus on immigration and, later, deportations, has kept him at the top of the Republican Party, as many supporters see him as a bulwark against these changes. For a significant fraction of the Trump base, he represents a stand against what they perceive as deliberate efforts to reduce white political power.
Surveys reveal the depth of this anxiety: Americans who fear that whites are being intentionally replaced in the U.S. are four times more likely to support violence for Trump. Conversely, those who view the country as historically racist are 2.5 times as likely to support political violence against Trump. Thus, the demographic shift is not loosely, but directly, fueling violent populism, explaining why such unrest is happening now and not in previous generations.
Wealth Concentration at the Top 1% Creates Negative-Sum Economy, Leading To Generational Setbacks
Parallel to the demographic revolution, wealth has been concentrating at the top at an accelerating rate. In the late 1980s, the top 1% of Americans held about 17% of the country’s wealth; today that share has ballooned to 26%. This rise means the bottom 99% is increasingly squeezed, facing higher costs, declining opportunities, and reduced upward mobility compared to previous generations. The benefits of economic growth accrue to the very top, while the rest operate within what Pape calls a “negative sum society,” where each year feels like a step backward.
This cocktail of concentrated wealth and economic anxiety extends across the political spectrum. Both Republican and Democratic elites share deep fears: when the opposing party holds power, they might lose material comfort, political rights, or the long-term well-being of their children. Specific events, like the government and media response to disasters in strongly Republican areas, or persistent concerns among Democrats about the erosion of legal rights, reinforce these worries.
The fusion of wealth concentration and demographic anxiety means that each election is transformed into a zero-sum, existential contest. Both sides are convinced that a loss for their party threatens their identity, privileges, or future prospects. Political leaders in both parties focus on restraining the other side’s billionaires, but neither demonstrates serious commitment to reversing the wealth shift among their o ...
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Root Causes: Demographic Shifts, Wealth Inequality Fueling Existential Politics
Additional Materials
Clarifications
- "Existential politics" refers to political conflicts perceived as threats to a group's fundamental identity, survival, or core values. It involves zero-sum struggles where losing political power feels like losing existence or cultural dominance. This type of politics intensifies emotions and can lead to extreme actions, including violence. In this context, it highlights how demographic and economic changes provoke fears that drive intense political polarization and unrest.
- For over two centuries, the U.S. being 80-85% white meant a stable racial majority shaped political power and cultural norms. This majority status reinforced social, economic, and legal systems favoring white Americans. It created a sense of racial and cultural dominance embedded in national identity. The recent demographic shift challenges this long-standing majority, causing political and social upheaval.
- Demographic shifts change the racial and ethnic makeup of a population, altering who holds majority status. Majority groups often associate their identity with political influence and cultural norms. When their share declines, they may fear losing power and social status. This fear triggers "existential anxiety" about their future role in society.
- Demographic changes shift the racial and ethnic makeup of the electorate, influencing which groups dominate voter turnout. The Republican Party's base is predominantly white, so a declining white majority reduces its traditional voter pool. The Democratic Party benefits from growing minority populations who tend to support its platform. These shifts force both parties to adjust strategies and policies to appeal to changing voter demographics.
- Violent populism is political violence driven by leaders or movements claiming to represent the "true people" against perceived corrupt elites or outsiders. It differs from other political violence by its focus on mass mobilization around identity and existential threats rather than isolated or ideological conflicts. This violence often targets institutions seen as betraying the majority's interests. It aims to disrupt or overthrow established political orders to restore perceived lost power or status.
- The fear that "whites are being intentionally replaced" refers to the "Great Replacement" conspiracy theory, which claims that immigration and demographic changes are deliberately designed to reduce white political and cultural power. This belief fuels intense anxiety and a sense of existential threat among some white Americans. Such fears can radicalize individuals, making them more willing to endorse or engage in political violence to defend their perceived status. This dynamic helps explain why supporters holding these views are disproportionately inclined to back violent actions linked to Trump.
- A "negative sum society" means the overall economic conditions cause most people to lose ground rather than gain. Unlike a zero-sum game where one’s gain is another’s loss, here the total wealth or opportunities shrink, making everyone worse off except a small elite. This leads to declining living standards and fewer chances for upward mobility for the majority. It intensifies social tensions as economic insecurity becomes widespread.
- Wealth concentration at the top 1% limits the resources available for public investments like education and infrastructure, which support economic mobility. It also increases political influence for the wealthy, shaping policies that favor their interests over broader economic growth. This dynamic reduces job creation and wage growth for the bottom 99%, making it harder for them to improve their financial situation. Additionally, it can lead to higher costs for essential goods and services, further straining lower-income households.
- Republican elites often fear losing economic advantages tied to lower taxes and deregulation, which they believe sustain their wealth and business interests. Democratic elites worry about the erosion of civil rights and social protections that support their policy goals and social progress. Both groups are concerned that political losses could lead to policies undermining their children’s education, healthcare, and economic opportunities. These fears reflect a broader anxiety about declining influence and security amid shifting political and social landscapes.
- Political leaders often criticize the wealth and influence of billionaires aligned with the opposing party to rally their base and gain political leverage. However, they rarely pursue policies that would significantly reduce wealth concentration among billionaires within their own party. This selective approach maintains the economic status quo benefiting their allies while framing the opposition as the main problem. It deepens polarization by f ...
Counterarguments
- While demographic shifts are significant, many studies show that diverse societies can and do maintain stable democracies, especially when institutions adapt and promote inclusion.
- The link between demographic change and violent populism is complex; other factors such as media polarization, social media algorithms, and political rhetoric also play substantial roles.
- Wealth inequality has increased, but some data indicate that absolute living standards for many Americans have also improved over the past decades, complicating the narrative of universal decline.
- The assertion that demographic anxiety is the primary driver of Trump’s rise is debated; economic dislocation, cultural backlash, and distrust in institutions are also cited as major factors.
- Not all members of the Republican Party or Trump’s base are motivated by demographic concerns; many support him for reasons related to economic policy, deregulation, or foreign policy.
- Political violence remains rare relative to the overall population, and most Americans, regardless of party, do not support it.
- The idea that both parties are equally uninterested in ad ...
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Who Commits Violence: Educated Middle-Class Profile Contradicts Stereotypes
Profile of People Involved In Political Violence Defies the Stereotype of Young, Unemployed, Rural Militia Members
Robert Pape explains that the prevailing stereotype of political violence perpetrators—someone young, rural, unemployed, and involved with militias—no longer reflects reality. Over the past five or six years, the new typical profile is that of well-educated, middle-class Americans; people with nice homes, stable careers, and financial investments. These individuals are often seen in suits and ties and live in affluent suburbs rather than in rural or economically-disadvantaged areas.
New Stereotype: Educated, Middle-Class Americans in Suits Behind Populism
Pape describes this new stereotype as both insurrectionists and social justice warriors emerging from privileged backgrounds, reinforcing that perpetrators are no longer the marginalized or disenfranchised. He emphasizes that those involved are from places like Elmhurst, Illinois, and the prosperous suburbs of Dallas and Austin, Texas—not from remote or rural areas like the Texas Panhandle. This marks a shift of violent populism into the mainstream, middle-class American society.
Analysis: 45% of 1,575 January 6th Prosecutions Were Business Owners, Doctors, Gynecologists, and Nurse Practitioners
Pape’s analysis of all 1,575 individuals prosecuted for the events of January 6th reveals that 45% were established professionals—business owners, doctors, gynecologists, nurse practitioners, and psychologists. This significant proportion demonstrates how the mainstream, educated, and economically secure segments of the population are now implicated in political violence.
Perpetrators From Dallas and Austin Suburbs Show Violent Populism's Shift to Mainstream Middle-Class Americans
Mapping the home locations of the Texas participants in the January 6th attack, Pape finds they overwhelmingly come from affluent suburbs around Dallas and Austin, not poorer or rural regions. This pattern further supports the conclusion that violent political actors today are mainstream, middle-class individuals.
Notable Figures Risk All In Politics to Avoid Losses Under Opposing Parties
Chris Williamson questions why individuals who seemingly have much to lose—stable families, careers, property, and education—would risk everything for political action or violence. Pape explains the answer lies in the perceived threat these individuals feel: they believe they are on the brink of losing everything due to political changes and fear for their lifestyle, status, and the future if the opposing party comes to power.
Violence: Perceived Threats to Lifestyle, Status, and Future
Pape underscores that these perpetrators believe they are acting in defense of their existing privileges and way of life, which are felt to be under immediate threat. The willingness to risk so much comes from an urgent sense that the stakes are existential.
Luigi Mangione: A Product of Generational Wealth and Elite Education Committing Violence for Social Justice Beliefs
Pape references Luigi Mangione as a representative case. Mangione comes from generational wealth, attended prestigious preparatory schools and the Ivy League University of Pennsylvania, and enjoyed a privileged lifestyle in Hawaii. Despite these advantages, he engaged in political violence for what he viewed as social justice causes—showing that privilege does not inoculate against radicalization.
Cole Allen, Trump's Third Would-Be Assassin, Was a 31-year-Old Engineer Who Claimed His Attempt Was a Duty to Address Social Injustices, Viewing Himself As a Robin Hood Willing to Make Sacrifices Others WouldN't
Another notable example is Cole Allen, a 31-year-old engineer and the third would-be assassin of President Trump. In his manifesto, Allen describes feeling morally obligated to address social injustices happening under the Trump administration. He styles himself as a Robin Hood figure: ready to sacrifice and take action where he believes others, despite sharing his beliefs, would not.
Evidence Linking Supp ...
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Who Commits Violence: Educated Middle-Class Profile Contradicts Stereotypes
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Counterarguments
- While recent high-profile cases involve middle-class and educated individuals, data from broader studies on political violence and extremism still show significant involvement from marginalized, rural, or economically disadvantaged groups, suggesting the stereotype may not be entirely obsolete.
- The analysis of January 6th participants may not be representative of all forms of political violence in the U.S., as other incidents (e.g., gang violence, hate crimes, or non-political mass violence) often involve different demographic profiles.
- The focus on affluent and educated perpetrators may overlook the continued role of extremist groups that recruit from less privileged backgrounds.
- The connection between perceived existential threat and willingness to commit violence is not unique to the middle class; similar motivations have historically driven marginalized groups as well.
- The presen ...
Actionables
- you can regularly reflect on your own sense of threat or loss regarding your lifestyle, status, or community by journaling about moments when news, politics, or social changes make you feel personally at risk, then identify whether these feelings are based on actual changes or perceived threats amplified by your social circles or media consumption.
- a practical way to check your assumptions about who is at risk of radicalization is to anonymously survey your friends, family, or colleagues about their views on political violence and perceived threats, then compare the results to your expectations to uncover hidden attitudes in your immediate environment.
- you can create a personal checklist to review before sharing or endorsi ...
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Elections: The American Domestic Escalation Trap
Robert Pape warns that the coming midterm elections represent an unprecedented risk in American democracy, driven by the potential for election-related violence that extends well past Election Day. Drawing on both recent history and new societal divides, Pape lays out a multi-stage process by which electoral disputes could escalate into widespread, sustained violent conflict.
How Elections Escalate Mass Support For Violence Into Widespread Violent Action
Pape details a process in three stages where the American electoral system, under current polarized conditions, transforms mass grievance into political violence.
Stage one: Razor-Thin Margins Create a "Legitimacy Shock," Leading Losers to Doubt Election Validity and Believe the Other Side Cheated
Stage one occurs at the moment of the vote count, especially when margins are razor thin. The losing side, regardless of party, is primed to see the outcome as illegitimate. They tend to believe the other side must have cheated, feeling a profound “legitimacy shock.” Pape emphasizes that both parties now show signs of refusing to believe they lost fair and square.
Stage two: Accept or Contest Outcome During Congressional Certification (Jan 6, 2027)
Stage two is the focal point of certification, slated for January 6, 2027, echoing the events of January 6, 2021. The process of formally seating the winner in Congress becomes a flashpoint, as whichever side loses must decide: accept the results or contest them. Pape questions whether either party will restrain their supporters from pressuring Congress, raising the possibility of massive protests or unrest during certification.
Stage Three: Prolonged Opposition as Violence Escalates Beyond Certification, Lasting Months or Years if the Losing Candidate's Supporters Refuse the Outcome
If disputes are not resolved on certification day, stage three unfolds with prolonged opposition and potential violence lasting months or years. Pape notes that if the losing coalition refuses to concede, violence can escalate well past certification, potentially destabilizing governance.
Midterm Elections Pose the Greatest Danger in American Lifetimes, With Both Sides Ready for Military-Style Responses Amid Expected Violence
Pape categorizes the upcoming midterms as possibly the most dangerous in living memory, not because of Election Day but due to what follows during the certification and aftermath.
Trump Considered Using the Insurrection Act and Military on Democratic Protesters, Suggesting a GOP Win Might Prompt Armed Federal Response if Democrats Protest
Pape recounts how President Trump has already referenced using the Insurrection Act and deploying the military to suppress potential Democratic protestors. This raises the specter that a Republican victory might be met with armed federal responses to left-wing dissent, while a Democratic win could provoke unrest from the right.
Election Danger: Social Changes Ensure Losers Won't Peacefully Accept Defeat, Risking Escalation
Societal changes have eroded mechanisms for peaceful concession. Pape argues that the composition and attitude of both major parties mean that neither side is likely to quietly accept defeat, amplifying the risk of post-election escalation.
Robert Pape's June 2025 NYT Warning About Assassination, Military-Style Immigration Enforcement Proved Prescient With Charlie Kirk's Assassination and Operation Midway Blitz in Chicago Three Months Later
Pape references his June 2025 New York Times warning about imminent po ...
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Elections: The American Domestic Escalation Trap
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Clarifications
- On January 6, 2021, a violent mob stormed the U.S. Capitol to disrupt the certification of the 2020 presidential election results. This event marked a significant attack on American democratic processes and heightened political polarization. January 6, 2027, is referenced as the next scheduled date for congressional certification of election results, raising concerns about potential repeats of unrest. The comparison underscores fears that similar or worse violence could occur if election outcomes are contested.
- The Insurrection Act is a U.S. federal law that allows the President to deploy military forces within the country to suppress civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion. It is intended for extreme situations where state authorities cannot maintain order. Using the Act bypasses normal law enforcement and can lead to military control over civilian areas. Its invocation is controversial because it risks militarizing domestic conflicts and undermining democratic norms.
- "Military-style immigration enforcement" refers to the use of tactics, equipment, and organizational methods typical of the military in immigration operations. This can include heavily armed agents, paramilitary units, and aggressive raids targeting immigrant communities. Such enforcement often escalates fear and tension, potentially leading to civil unrest and human rights concerns. It marks a shift from traditional law enforcement approaches to a more confrontational and forceful posture.
- The "rally around the flag" effect refers to a surge in public support for the president and government during international crises or wars. Historically, Americans tend to unite and back leadership regardless of party during major conflicts. This effect boosts national solidarity and political approval temporarily. Its absence signals deep political divisions and weakens unified foreign policy support.
- The "Iranian Lego" propaganda videos are satirical clips using Lego-style animation to mock or criticize political figures, particularly Donald Trump. Their goal is to undermine Trump's credibility and influence by portraying him in a humorous or embarrassing light. These videos aim to sway public opinion against Trump and his supporters by highlighting perceived flaws or failures. Despite their creativity, they have not significantly shifted U.S. political divides or public sentiment.
- "Existential two-party cleavages" refer to deep, fundamental divisions between the two main political parties that go beyond typical policy disagreements. These cleavages affect core values, identities, and worldviews, making compromise difficult. They shape how each party's supporters perc ...
Counterarguments
- While concerns about post-election violence are valid, historical precedent shows that widespread, sustained political violence in the U.S. remains rare, even during highly contentious elections.
- The majority of Americans, according to recent polling, still express support for democratic norms and peaceful transitions of power, suggesting resilience in the system.
- Both major parties have internal factions and leaders who continue to publicly advocate for peaceful concession and respect for electoral outcomes.
- The use of military force in response to domestic unrest remains highly controversial and subject to significant legal and institutional checks, making large-scale deployment unlikely without broad justification.
- The events cited (such as the assassination of Charlie Kirk and Operation Midway Blitz) are extreme and, while serious, do not necessarily indicate a trend toward normalized political violence or military intervention.
- The lack of a "rally around the flag" effect during the Iran war may reflect broader trends in public skept ...
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Leadership's Lack of Restraint and Anti-Violence Message
Most Americans Abhor Political Violence but Lack Leadership and Platforms
Survey data consistently show that 65% to 70% of Americans abhor political violence, according to Robert Pape. This large majority opposes violence in politics and constitutes a “silent majority.” However, they lack effective vehicles, leaders, or platforms to express and amplify their anti-violence consensus. Despite the country becoming more radicalized, surveys repeatedly reveal this core consensus against violence.
Pape emphasizes that there is no political leader—on any side—willing to make opposition to political violence a top campaign issue or priority, even though this is fundamental to maintaining American stability. The public’s anti-violence stance is not reflected in mainstream leadership or political discourse. Almost no political leaders are vocally concerned about the risk of violence occurring, especially not from their own supporters.
Podcasts, rather than traditional political or media avenues, are currently rare but important mediums where this anti-violence stance is vocalized. Pape acknowledges specific podcast hosts and media figures who focus their platforms on combatting political violence and reflecting the views of this unrepresented majority, attempting to give them a voice. Yet, on social media and in wider civic spaces, there is still low visibility and pushback against violent populism.
Leaders Blame Opposing Violence but Won't Restrain Their Own, Perpetuating the Cycle
The media and political leaders often perpetuate a cycle where they attribute political violence by the opposing side to ideology while excusing or minimizing violence by their own side. Left-leaning outlets may dismiss left-affiliated attackers as suffering from mental illness, while right-leaning media use a similar approach for right-wing violence, deflecting responsibility away from their own camp. Stories about political violence are formulaic in their bias and rarely acknowledge the underlying, bipartisan problem.
While some organizations and a few political leaders have attempted more balanced discussions of violence, these efforts are uncommon and rarely rewarded in the current political climate. Instead, most leaders fail to actively restrain or discourage violent tendencies in their supporters, furthering the risk of escalation. Both the language used and the lack of accountability help normalize a dangerous cycle—one not easily broken without explicit restraint and condemnation from political figures themselves.
Normalization of Political Violence Could Reduce if Leaders Consistently Refuse to Excuse or Glorify Violence By Supporters
The glorification and excusal of violence by partisan leaders deepen the problem. Pape gives the example of Donald Trump’s behavior surrounding the January 6th insurrection: Trump failed to intervene until hours after the violence began and later publicly expressed admiration for the participants. Even after the event, Trump glorified the insurrectionists, used Truth Social to validate January 6th, and ultimately pardoned all 1,575 prosecuted participants, regardless of the severity of their crimes. Pape’s research team reviewed every one of these cases, illustrating the scale and conscious nature of Trump’s response.
Efforts such as de-platforming Trump and other inflammatory figures like Tucker Carlson did not reduce the underlying sentiment or incidence of political violence. Pape points out that the media and some policymakers believed removing these figures from mainstream platforms would diminish violent impulses, but the data ...
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Leadership's Lack of Restraint and Anti-Violence Message
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Counterarguments
- While survey data indicate a majority opposes political violence, public opinion can be complex and context-dependent; opposition in principle does not always translate to opposition in practice when people feel threatened or perceive existential stakes.
- The claim that no political leader prioritizes anti-violence messaging may overlook local, nonpartisan, or third-party leaders who have made explicit anti-violence appeals, even if these voices are less prominent nationally.
- Some mainstream media outlets and political figures have condemned violence from their own side, though such statements may receive less attention or be overshadowed by more partisan rhetoric.
- The assertion that podcasts are the primary or only platforms for anti-violence messaging may understate the role of other civic organizations, religious groups, or educational institutions in promoting nonviolence.
- The focus on Trump’s actions regarding January 6th may not fully account for the broader context of political violence in the U.S., which has occurred across the political spectrum and over many years.
- De-platforming may not have reduced violent sentiment, but some research suggests it can limit the ...
Actionables
- You can consistently respond to political conversations—online or in person—by calmly stating your personal opposition to all political violence, regardless of which side is involved, and briefly explaining why you believe nonviolence is essential for democracy; this helps normalize anti-violence views in everyday interactions and signals that such opinions are widely held.
- A practical way to reinforce anti-violence norms is to privately message or email your elected representatives and local party officials, urging them to publicly denounce violence from their own supporters and to make anti-violence a visible part of their platform; this direct feedback can encourage leaders to reflect the public’s stance.
- ...
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1-Page Summary- Violent Populism in America: Definition, Statistics, and Manifestations
- Root Causes: Demographic Shifts, Wealth Inequality Fueling Existential Politics
- Who Commits Violence: Educated Middle-Class Profile Contradicts Stereotypes
- Elections: The American Domestic Escalation Trap
- Leadership's Lack of Restraint and Anti-Violence Message
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