#458 — The Bulwark Against MAGA
In this episode of Making Sense, Sarah Longwell and Tim Miller discuss The Bulwark's emergence as a platform for anti-Trump conservative voices. The conversation examines how The Bulwark transformed from an aggregator site into an independent media outlet, with both Longwell and Miller sharing their experiences transitioning from Republican insiders to Trump critics.
The discussion explores key dynamics within the modern Republican Party, including what Longwell calls the "triangle of doom" - the relationship between conservative voters, right-wing media, and Republican officials. The hosts analyze how media figures like Tucker Carlson and Candace Owens influence different segments of conservative voters, and examine the rise of "vice signaling" as a response to perceived left-wing virtue signaling, particularly among younger audiences.
This is a preview of the Shortform summary of the Feb 11, 2026 episode of the Making Sense with Sam Harris
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1-Page Summary
The Bulwark's Role in the Anti-Trump Conservative Movement
Sarah Longwell founded The Bulwark around 2017-2018 as an aggregator for anti-Trump conservative voices. When the Weekly Standard shut down, Longwell transformed The Bulwark into an independent media outlet by hiring former Weekly Standard staff. Today, The Bulwark serves as a prominent platform for conservative voices opposing Trump, featuring regular critiques from hosts Sarah Longwell and Tim Miller.
Analysis of Prominent Conservative Figures and Their Motivations
Tim Miller, a former Republican strategist who worked on campaigns for McCain, Huntsman, and Romney, joined the anti-Trump movement after being ostracized from Republican politics following Trump's 2016 win. Similarly, Sarah Longwell transitioned from GOP insider to Trump critic, conducting focus groups that revealed stronger-than-expected Trump support among the Republican base. Her research highlighted how distinct segments within the party are influenced by different conservative media figures like Tucker Carlson and Candace Owens.
Dynamics and Tensions Within the Republican Party
Longwell describes a "triangle of doom" in the Republican Party: conservative voters demand confrontational rhetoric, right-wing media amplifies these demands, and Republican officials feel pressured to align with these preferences. This dynamic affects even established conservative figures like Ben Shapiro, who, according to Longwell, tempered his initial anti-Trump stance to retain his audience. Miller and Longwell note Tucker Carlson's concerning transformation from respected journalist to conspiracy theorist as another example of this phenomenon.
Social and Cultural Factors Shaping Political Discourse
The podcast discussion explores the rise of what Miller calls "vice signaling" on the right, where controversial views are embraced as a counterpoint to perceived left-wing "virtue signaling." Longwell points out how figures like Candace Owens and Tucker Carlson capitalize on audiences' appetite for sensational content and conspiracy theories, particularly affecting younger voters through a combination of humor and community building. This trend has created significant challenges for the GOP in maintaining traditional conservative coherence amid growing populist influence.
1-Page Summary
Additional Materials
Actionables
- You can start a blog or social media page focused on civil political discourse, inviting contributions from diverse viewpoints to foster understanding and reduce polarization. By creating a space that welcomes different perspectives, you encourage constructive conversations and provide an alternative to the confrontational rhetoric prevalent in some media circles.
- Develop a personal habit of consuming a balanced media diet by intentionally seeking out news sources from across the political spectrum. This practice helps you understand the broader political landscape and the various influences on different segments of the population, which can inform your own opinions and discussions with others.
- Engage in local community forums or town hall meetings to discuss the impact of media on political beliefs. By participating in these discussions, you contribute to raising awareness about the effects of sensationalist content and the importance of critical thinking when consuming news, which can help counteract the spread of misinformation and conspiracy theories.
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The Bulwark's Role in the Anti-Trump Conservative Movement
Sarah Longwell's vision and funding have paved the way for The Bulwark to emerge as a key platform for anti-Trump conservative voices, providing an alternative to the dominant pro-Trump narrative prevalent in much of the Republican Party and conservative media.
The Bulwark Founded As Anti-Trump Conservative Aggregator
Sarah Longwell founded The Bulwark around 2017 or 2018 as an aggregator for Republicans and conservatives who opposed Trump. The concept was to bring these dissenting voices together on a unified website. Envisioned as a sane alternative to the Drudge Report, she secured seed money to initiate the project. As Longwell and Bill Kristol considered ways to challenge Trump, including primary efforts, The Bulwark became a part of their larger strategy.
Sarah Longwell's Online Hub for Anti-Trump GOP Voices
The Bulwark transformed from an aggregator to an independent media outlet with contributors when the Weekly Standard, a conservative magazine judged to be insufficiently pro-Trump, was shut down. Capitalizing on this moment, Longwell hired former Weekly Standard staff to create a more robust platform. This extension from the initial vision of aggregation to independent media reflected Longwell’s determination to provide a space for alternative conservative viewpoints.
The Bulwark Platform Critiques the Republican Party
The Bulwark has now become an established entity amongst anti-Trump conservative media, and Longwell, along with Tim Miller and their colleague JBL, regularly critique Trump and his ideology through their podcast and writings.
Hosts Sarah Longwell and Tim Miller Are Vocal Critics of Trump and His Ideology
Tim Miller, characterized as a “never Trump hunter S Thompson,” is a prominent host on The Bulwark podcast, which has seen a doubling of its audience since his take-over. The weekly roundtable podcast hosted by Longwell, Miller, and their colleague JBL, continues to offer vigorous critiques of Trump and his influence within the Republican Party.
Miller and Longwell implied that figures like Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger receive pushback from Trump supporters because, despite actually adhering to traditional conservative values, they are seen as compromising. Meanwhile, Longwell highlights the self-perpetuating "Republican triangle of doom," where voters' support for Trump incentivizes Republican officials to echo pro-Trump sentiments, creating systemic reinforcement of Trumpism within the party.
The Bulwark ...
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The Bulwark's Role in the Anti-Trump Conservative Movement
Additional Materials
Clarifications
- Sarah Longwell is a political strategist and communications expert known for her opposition to Donald Trump within conservative circles. She has worked on Republican campaigns and is recognized for promoting traditional conservative principles. Longwell is significant for founding The Bulwark, a platform that challenges pro-Trump narratives in the GOP. Her efforts represent a faction of conservatives seeking to redefine the party's direction post-Trump.
- The Bulwark is a digital news and opinion website focused on conservative politics. It was created to provide a platform for conservatives who oppose Donald Trump’s influence on the Republican Party. The site publishes articles, podcasts, and commentary that challenge pro-Trump narratives common in much of conservative media. It aims to uphold traditional conservative principles like limited government and personal responsibility, distinct from Trump-aligned viewpoints.
- The Drudge Report is a widely read news aggregation website known for its conservative-leaning content. It gained prominence in the late 1990s and early 2000s by breaking major political stories. The site often features sensational headlines and links to various news sources, influencing conservative media narratives. Its significance lies in shaping public opinion and serving as a key platform for right-wing news dissemination.
- The Weekly Standard was a conservative magazine founded in 1995 known for its neoconservative stance. It became critical of Donald Trump during his presidency, opposing his style and policies. This opposition led to a decline in support from pro-Trump conservatives and advertisers. The magazine ceased publication in 2018, partly due to its anti-Trump editorial line.
- Bill Kristol is a prominent conservative political analyst and commentator. He co-founded the Weekly Standard, a key conservative magazine that often opposed Trump. Kristol became a leading figure in the "Never Trump" movement, actively criticizing Trump’s policies and style. His involvement lent credibility and organization to anti-Trump conservatives.
- Tim Miller is a political strategist and commentator known for his opposition to Trump within conservative circles. He has worked on Republican campaigns and is recognized for his sharp critiques of Trumpism. JBL is a pseudonymous contributor and co-host on The Bulwark podcast, known for providing analysis and commentary alongside Longwell and Miller. Both play key roles in shaping The Bulwark’s anti-Trump conservative narrative.
- The term "never Trump" refers to conservatives who oppose Donald Trump and his influence on the Republican Party. Hunter S. Thompson was a famous journalist known for his gonzo style—bold, irreverent, and often satirical. Calling Tim Miller a "never Trump hunter S Thompson" suggests he critiques Trump with sharp, fearless, and unconventional commentary. This label highlights Miller's distinctive, intense approach to anti-Trump criticism.
- Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger are Republican politicians known for openly criticizing Donald Trump and opposing his influence within the GOP. They served on the House Select Committee investigating the January 6 Capitol attack, which angered many Trump supporters. Their stance is seen as a betrayal by Trump loyalists, leading to political and social backlash. This opposition highlights divisions within the Republican Party between traditional conservatives and Trump-aligned factions.
- The "Republican triangle of doom" refers to a cycle where Republican voters, party officials, and media mutually reinforce support for Trump. Voters back Trump, pressuring officials to align with him to maintain support. Offici ...
Counterarguments
- The Bulwark's focus on anti-Trump conservatism may inadvertently marginalize other important conservative issues and debates that are not directly related to Trump or Trumpism.
- By concentrating on anti-Trump rhetoric, The Bulwark could be contributing to further polarization within the conservative movement and the broader political landscape.
- The Bulwark's critique of the "Republican triangle of doom" may oversimplify the reasons for Trump's support among Republican voters and officials, ignoring other factors such as policy alignment or political strategy.
- The assertion that figures like Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger adhere to traditional conservative values could be challenged on the basis that "traditional" conservative values are not universally agreed upon and are subject to interpretation.
- The Bulwark's claim to uphold core conservative values might be seen as subjective, as different conservatives may have varying perspectives on what those ...
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Analysis of Prominent Conservative Figures and Their Motivations
Tim Miller and Sarah Longwell, both prominent figures in conservative circles, have become known for their opposition to Donald Trump and the direction he has taken the Republican Party.
Campaign Operative Tim Miller Opposes Trump
Miller, a long-time Republican strategist, has transitioned from volunteering on campaigns since high school to opposing Trump's ideology, expressing concern over the proliferation of conspiracies among right-wing media.
Republican Strategist For McCain, Huntsman, and Romney Campaigns
Tim Miller started his political journey volunteering on campaigns from high school and described himself as a "campaign gypsy." He has worked on various campaigns, including those of Bill Owens, John McCain in 2008, Jon Huntsman in 2012, and Mitt Romney.
Post-2016 Trump Win, Miller Was Shunned by GOP, Joined Anti-Trump Movement
Despite Bushes' warnings, Miller joined a precursor to the Lincoln Project because he saw danger in Trump's vengeful nature. After Trump's win, he was ostracized from Republican politics, which led him to Sarah Longwell and the anti-Trump conservative movement. Miller, who underestimated Trump's appeal, experienced a shift in his political affiliations post-2016.
Sarah Longwell: From GOP Insider to Trump Critic
Longwell also moved from being a GOP insider to a staunch critic of Trump and his "America first" wing.
Longwell Sought To Primary Trump After Witnessing His Rise
Sarah Longwell became involved with the Bulwark and sought to support candidates to primary Trump. She had discussions with figures like Larry Hogan and Mark Cuban, reflecting her move away from supporting Trump after his ascension in the Republican Party.
Research: GOP Base More Supportive of Trump Than Expected
Longwell found, through focus groups with Republican voters, that the GOP base was more supportive of Trump than she had expe ...
Here’s what you’ll find in our full summary
Analysis of Prominent Conservative Figures and Their Motivations
Additional Materials
Clarifications
- Tim Miller is a Republican strategist known for working on several high-profile GOP campaigns before becoming a vocal critic of Donald Trump. Sarah Longwell is a former GOP insider and political consultant who shifted to opposing Trump and his influence on the party. Both have played key roles in anti-Trump conservative efforts, including founding or supporting groups like the Lincoln Project. Their significance lies in representing a faction of conservatives who reject Trump’s ideology and seek to influence the party’s future direction.
- The Lincoln Project is a political action committee formed by former and current Republicans aiming to prevent Donald Trump's re-election. It uses media campaigns and advertisements to criticize Trump and his supporters. The group seeks to promote traditional conservative values and oppose what they see as Trump's harmful influence on the Republican Party. Their efforts focus on persuading moderate Republicans and independents to reject Trump.
- In politics, a "campaign gypsy" is someone who works on multiple political campaigns, often moving from one candidate or cause to another. This term highlights a nomadic or flexible career path within political consulting or organizing. Such individuals gain diverse experience but may lack long-term loyalty to a single campaign or party faction. The phrase can imply adaptability and broad expertise in campaign work.
- Bill Owens was a Republican congressman known for moderate stances, representing a swing district in New York. John McCain was the 2008 Republican presidential nominee, known for his military service and maverick reputation. Jon Huntsman ran for president in 2012 with a focus on diplomacy and moderate conservatism. Mitt Romney was the 2012 Republican presidential nominee, emphasizing economic expertise and opposition to Trump later on.
- The "America First" wing of the Republican Party emphasizes prioritizing U.S. interests in trade, immigration, and foreign policy. It gained prominence with Donald Trump's presidency, advocating nationalism and skepticism of global alliances. This faction often opposes traditional conservative internationalism and free trade policies. It appeals to voters concerned about economic competition and cultural change.
- "Primarying" a candidate means challenging an incumbent or favored candidate within the same political party during primary elections. Primaries determine who will represent the party in the general election. This process allows party members to choose between different candidates before the final election. It is often used to push the party in a new direction or replace unpopular leaders.
- Larry Hogan is a moderate Republican and former governor of Maryland known for opposing Trump within the GOP. Mark Cuban is a billionaire entrepreneur and owner of the Dallas Mavericks, often vocal on political issues but not a traditional Republican figure. Both have been discussed as potential alternatives or critics within the broader Republican or conservative landscape. Their relevance lies in representing voices that challenge Trump’s dominance in GOP politics.
- Tucker Carlson and Candace Owens are influential conservative commentators with large audiences on TV and social media. They shape public opinion by promoting right-wing viewpoints and often support former President Trump’s agenda. Their ability to mobilize and unify different segments of the GOP base strengthens the "MAGA-friendly" faction within the party. This influence ...
Counterarguments
- Tim Miller's and Sarah Longwell's opposition to Trump may be seen as a reflection of a broader ideological divide within the Republican Party, where traditional conservatives feel alienated by the populist and nationalist tendencies of Trump's base.
- The efforts by Miller and Longwell to oppose Trump could be criticized for not adequately addressing the reasons behind his support, potentially overlooking the legitimate concerns and values of the voters who propelled Trump to power.
- The characterization of Tucker Carlson and Candace Owens as consolidating power within the GOP to create a more "MAGA-friendly" establishment could be challenged by arguing that they are responding to the demands of their audience rather than leading them.
- The focus on opposing Trump might be seen as a distraction from developing a positive and forward-looking conservative agenda that can unite different factions of the party.
- The anti-Trump movement within the GOP, represented by figures like Miller and Longwell, could be criticized for potentially contributing to further polarization within the party rather than seeking common ground.
- The involvement of figures like Larry Hogan and Mark Cuban in discussions to primary Trump could be criticized as an attempt by the political elite to override the choice of the Republican electorate, which could be seen as undemocratic.
- The assertion that Tim Miller was shunned by the GOP after Trump's win could be countered by the argument that political alli ...
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Dynamics and Tensions Within the Republican Party
Sarah Longwell and Tim Miller discuss the fragmented nature of the Republican Party, highlighting the "triangle of doom," where conservative media, voter demand for confrontational rhetoric, and political alignment form a feedback loop.
"Triangle of Doom": Conservative Voters, Media, Officials Feedback Loop
Voters Demand Confrontational Rhetoric and Policies From Republicans
According to Longwell, conservative voters have become tired of traditional political candidates and are instead drawn to figures like Trump due to his outsider persona. They yearn for aggressive confrontation with Democrats, which pushed Republicans to adjust their strategies accordingly. This is evidenced by the dialogue references to the demand for confrontational rhetoric that sustains support for Trump.
Right-Wing Media Catering To and Amplifying Those Demands
The right-wing media, figures like Tucker Carlson and Candace Owens, influence younger conservative audiences and indeed shape their political perspectives. Miller points out that as Republican voters convince themselves of severe threats from the left, they view politicians who stand up against these viewpoints as having compromised, intensifying a feedback loop that continually justifies confrontational rhetoric.
Republicans Pressured to Align With Base's Preferences
The pressures of aligning with the base's preferences are manifest in the Republicans' challenge of confronting the hypocrisies without distancing oneself from the party and potentially being labeled as someone akin to a Bulwark contributor. The risk lies in Republicans like Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley trying different approaches, only to find that there is no market for moderation among the influential part of the party power structure.
Conservatives Ben Shapiro and Tucker Carlson Navigate Tricky Path
Shapiro, Initially Critical of Trump, Tempers Stance to Retain Audience
Ben Shapiro initially opposed Trump, even leaving Breitbart, but ...
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Dynamics and Tensions Within the Republican Party
Additional Materials
Counterarguments
- The perception that conservative voters uniformly demand confrontational rhetoric might overlook the diversity within the Republican Party, where some constituents still value traditional conservative principles and civility in politics.
- The influence of right-wing media is significant, but it is not the sole factor shaping political perspectives; voters have agency and can be influenced by a variety of sources, including personal experiences and local issues.
- The idea that there is no market for moderation within the Republican Party may be challenged by the success of more moderate Republican officials in certain states and districts, suggesting that the party is not monolithic.
- The characterization of Ben Shapiro's stance on Trump as solely motivated by audience pressures may not fully account for the possibility of genuine changes in Shapiro's assessment of Trump's policies or leadership over time.
- The description of Tucker Carlson's career trajectory as a shift towards demagoguery could be seen as a subjective interpretation of his work, and some might argue that he is responding to legitimate concerns of his viewers rather than leading them towards extremism.
- The assertion that Republican politicians are pressured to align with confrontational preferences might be too simplistic, ...
Actionables
- You can develop critical thinking by analyzing political speeches for confrontational rhetoric and identifying underlying arguments. Start by selecting a speech from a politician known for confrontational style and write down all instances of aggressive language. Then, try to rephrase those instances in a neutral tone and compare the arguments' strength without the confrontational rhetoric. This exercise will help you discern the substance of political arguments from their presentation style.
- Enhance your media literacy by creating a "rhetoric map" that tracks the evolution of a media personality's arguments over time. Choose a figure like Tucker Carlson and review a series of their commentaries across several months or years. Note shifts in tone, topics, and the introduction of sensational elements. This will help you understand how media figures may change their messaging to align with audience expectations and the impact this has on public discourse.
- Engage in constructive dialogue by initiating conversations with individuals of differing political views, focu ...
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Social and Cultural Factors Shaping Political Discourse
The increasing complications tied to social and cultural factors in political discourse are elaborated by Tim Miller, Sarah Longwell, and others. They discuss the rise of what some are calling "vice signaling," the persistence of controversy and sensationalism in the media, and the challenges conservatives face in staying coherent especially as populist and authoritarian shifts take place.
"Vice Signaling" Rises On Right As "Virtue Signaling" Counterpoint
Miller points to a "pop psychology" observation that people generally want to affiliate themselves with good causes, which sometimes leads them to justify controversial rhetoric or policies. Sarah Longwell highlights that Trump supporters use controversies, such as insinuations of a left-wing cabal or extreme accusations against political opponents, to claim moral superiority over traditional conservative values.
Irony to Embrace Of Controversial Views
Although she didn't use the term "vice signaling," Longwell suggests an ironic pride among some conservatives in adopting controversial views as a counterpoint to accusations of "virtue signaling" from the left.
Conspiracy Theories and Sensationalism in Media
Figures Capitalizing On Audiences' Hunger For Such Content
Longwell points out that some figures like Candace Owens and Tucker Carlson exploit the audiences' appetite for sensational content, which includes conspiracy theories and whataboutism tactics. She discusses how TPUSA supporters didn't sway from supporting Candace Owens even after she spread a false conspiracy about the organization's founder. Miller is worried about Owens' impact on young voters and notes her reach even among casual audiences.
The infotainment style that draws people to figures like Owens and Nick Fuentes, combining humor and community, allows them to subtly influence their listeners’ opinions, as Longwell compares with Alex Jones. She comments on the novelty of conspiracies being propagated not ...
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Social and Cultural Factors Shaping Political Discourse
Additional Materials
Actionables
- You can develop critical thinking by regularly questioning the motives behind the information you receive, especially when it aligns with your beliefs. Start by identifying a piece of news or a social media post that supports your viewpoint. Then, challenge yourself to find three credible sources that either support or refute it. This practice helps you avoid the trap of confirmation bias and ensures you're not unknowingly endorsing sensational content.
- Enhance your media literacy by creating a "trust checklist" for evaluating the credibility of news sources. Include criteria such as the presence of fact-checking, the reputation of the publication, the transparency of sources, and the diversity of perspectives presented. Before sharing or endorsing any political content, run it through your checklist to ensure it's not contributing to the spread of sensationalism or conspiracy theories.
- Engage in constructive dialogue by initiating conversations with individuals who hold different political vie ...
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