Michael Kratsios: Trump's Science Agenda, Anti-Science Claims, Fauci's Damage, DEI & China
In this episode of All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg, Michael Kratsios and David Friedberg examine the state of American science and research. They discuss how U.S. science has become politicized over recent decades, particularly during the Covid-19 pandemic, and argue for a return to foundational scientific principles based on open debate and empirical evidence. The conversation covers concerns about federal research funding allocation, including how current grant processes may discourage bold innovation and how DEI priorities have affected funding decisions.
Kratsios and Friedberg also address the U.S.-China competition in scientific output, noting China's substantial increase in R&D spending and research publication. They explore challenges in the domestic STEM pipeline, including declining numbers of U.S.-born PhD recipients in computer science and barriers facing early-career scientists. The episode presents various reform proposals, from alternative funding models to mission-driven targets in fields like space exploration and fusion energy, aimed at restoring scientific productivity and maintaining America's competitive position.
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Restoring Scientific Integrity and Reforming U.S. Research
Michael Kratsios and David Friedberg discuss the urgent need to depoliticize American science, reform federal research funding, and strengthen the nation's competitive position against China's rising scientific capabilities.
Politicization of Science and Restoration of Integrity
Kratsios and Friedberg argue that U.S. science has become deeply politicized over the past 15–20 years, moving away from its foundational principles of inquiry and skepticism. This trend peaked during the Covid-19 pandemic, when authorities like Dr. Anthony Fauci promoted policies such as student masking that weren't always supported by empirical data. Disagreement was frequently labeled as anti-science, turning scientific debate into a matter of loyalty. Friedberg notes that many scientists stopped asking hard questions and defaulted to dogma, while those who challenged conclusions on Covid-19 measures or climate modeling scenarios like RCP 8.5 were dismissed as conspiracy theorists.
To restore trust, Kratsios and Friedberg call for a return to gold standard scientific methods based on questioning, experimentation, and humility. Scientific authority should depend on open debate, not conformity. Kratsios also highlights how political ideology around DEI has affected funding, with about 25% of NSF grants over four years—roughly $8 billion—going to DEI-related projects, which he views as diverting research priorities away from scientific merit.
Reforming Federal Research Funding Allocation
Despite federal biomedical research funding tripling since 1998—from $14 billion to $47 billion—scientific productivity per dollar has fallen roughly 80-fold since 1950, illustrating what Friedberg calls Airthur's Law: research efficiency halves every nine years. Kratsios identifies the core problem as a lack of innovation in how federal science is managed and financed.
The NSF and NIH grant processes discourage bold, high-risk research, with peer reviewers favoring safe, conventional projects. Grant durations are often mismatched to actual project needs, stifling both quick experiments and long-term ambitious work. In response, the administration is piloting reforms including "golden tickets" that allow reviewers to unilaterally back innovative proposals, varied grant durations from six-month sprints to five-year projects, and funding scientists based on talent rather than institutional affiliation.
Kratsios suggests supplementing traditional federal funding with alternatives, noting that the funding landscape has reversed since World War II—private sector investment now accounts for 70% of R&D versus 30% federal. He advocates for diversified allocation models that redirect university overheads to research and support independent scientists, ensuring funding follows the best researchers regardless of location.
U.S.-China Competition in Scientific Output
China's R&D spending rose from $33 billion in 2000 to $670 billion in 2021—a 19-fold increase compared to the U.S.'s threefold increase. Friedberg notes that China now publishes roughly 50% more scientific papers than the U.S. across nearly all domains except some life sciences.
Kratsios contrasts China's centralized, top-down approach—which has struggled to develop EUV lithography despite making it a national priority—with the U.S. market-driven model, where competition among government, universities, industry, and investors fosters diverse innovation paths. He describes China's industrial strategy of identifying technologies, creating cheaper alternatives, dumping them in U.S. markets, and establishing dominance—particularly targeting control over critical technology minerals. The U.S. must ensure independent supply chains through diversified sourcing and domestic production to avoid exploitative dependencies.
Strengthening the STEM Pipeline
Kratsios observes that the percentage of U.S.-born PhD recipients in computer science has inverted over three decades: once 70% American, now only 30%, with seven out of ten STEM PhD candidates not being American citizens. This shift reflects policies that discourage advanced STEM education, including the elimination of NSF's gifted-student programs, removal of advanced math courses in secondary education, and UC's decision to drop SAT requirements—which has led to more Berkeley students needing remedial math.
Early-career scientists face low pay, uncertain prospects, and grant pressure. Kratsios highlights efforts like NSF's GRFP, which funds 2,600 promising PhDs annually with portable funding, making universities compete for talent. He argues the U.S. must both rebuild the domestic STEM pipeline and create legal pathways for international scientists trained in the U.S. to stay, as other nations now actively recruit global talent with attractive salaries and housing.
Rethinking Science Funding
Kratsios notes that today's R&D funding ratio—70% private, 30% government—reverses the post-WWII model. He argues government should fund early-stage, pre-competitive discovery science, while private industry focuses on commercialization. Friedberg points out that private industry prioritizes near-term revenue, leaving fundamental sciences like deep space exploration and pure physics underfunded, despite their potential for unforeseen future applications.
The administration has set ambitious targets: American boots on the moon by 2028, a nuclear reactor in space by 2028, relevant quantum computing by 2028, and fusion energy by 2035. The "Genesis Mission" aims to use AI to double U.S. scientific output in materials science, chemistry, math, and physics. Kratsios advocates a balanced portfolio approach combining mission-driven investment with robust funding for basic discovery science.
He emphasizes that funding should prioritize merit over institutional prestige, fostering redundancy and resilience across the scientific community. Currently, funding too often tracks the institution rather than the individual, limiting opportunities for talented researchers outside elite organizations. Kratsios also notes that the median age of NIH researchers is now 71, indicating a lack of advancement pathways for early-career scientists. He sees an opportunity for institutional reforms that support younger scientists and promote generational mentorship, which will revitalize American science with fresh perspectives and innovative directions.
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Additional Materials
Counterarguments
- While concerns about politicization exist, many scientists and institutions maintain rigorous standards of inquiry and skepticism, and peer review processes are designed to minimize bias.
- The assertion that Covid-19 policies lacked empirical support is debated; many public health measures were based on the best available evidence at the time, with evolving recommendations as new data emerged.
- Labeling dissent as "anti-science" was not universal; there were numerous forums and publications where alternative viewpoints and critiques were discussed and debated.
- DEI (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion) initiatives in science are intended to broaden participation and address historical inequities, which can enhance scientific creativity and problem-solving by bringing in diverse perspectives.
- The claim that 25% of NSF grants went to DEI-related projects may conflate projects that include DEI components with those whose primary focus is DEI, potentially overstating the diversion from scientific merit.
- Declining research productivity per dollar may be influenced by factors such as increased complexity of modern science, higher regulatory and compliance costs, and diminishing returns in mature research fields, not solely funding inefficiency.
- Peer review and funding processes at NSF and NIH have mechanisms to support high-risk, high-reward research, such as the NIH Director’s Pioneer Award and NSF’s EAGER grants.
- The increase in private sector R&D funding reflects the growth of technology-driven industries and may complement, rather than undermine, public research by translating discoveries into practical applications.
- The number of scientific publications is not a direct measure of research quality or impact; concerns have been raised about the reproducibility and significance of some research outputs, including those from China.
- The decline in U.S.-born STEM PhDs may also reflect the global attractiveness of U.S. graduate programs and the internationalization of science, rather than solely domestic policy failures.
- Changes in standardized testing and gifted programs are controversial, but some argue these reforms aim to reduce inequities and broaden access to higher education.
- Early-career challenges in science are a global issue, not unique to the U.S., and are influenced by broader labor market trends and academic structures.
- Funding based on institutional prestige can reflect established track records of research excellence and infrastructure, which may be necessary for certain large-scale or complex projects.
- The high median age of NIH researchers may be partly due to the time required to develop expertise and lead major research programs, rather than solely a lack of opportunities for younger scientists.
Actionables
- you can practice scientific skepticism in everyday life by making a habit of asking for evidence and alternative explanations when you encounter claims in news, social media, or conversations, and keeping a simple journal to note when your views change based on new information—this builds your own inquiry skills and models open-mindedness for others.
- a practical way to support diverse scientific talent is to follow and share the work of early-career or lesser-known researchers on social media or in conversations, helping to amplify voices outside elite institutions and encouraging broader recognition of merit.
- you can encourage STEM learning in your community or family by gifting logic puzzles, science kits, or math games to young people, and by celebrating curiosity-driven questions, which helps foster a culture of inquiry and interest in science regardless of formal education policies.
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Politicization of Science and Restoration of Integrity
Scientific Community Politicized Over Core Inquiry Principles
Michael Kratsios and David Friedberg argue that over the past 15–20 years, science in the United States has become deeply politicized, moving away from its foundational principles of inquiry and skepticism. This trend peaked during the Covid-19 pandemic, when public and scientific authority figures—exemplified by Dr. Anthony Fauci—began promoting policies and positions, such as student masking in schools, that were not always supported by empirical data. Disagreement with these positions was frequently labeled as anti-science, undermining the very basis of scientific inquiry, which relies on continuous questioning, hypothesis testing, and debate.
Kratsios highlights that Dr. Fauci and other authorities turned scientific disagreement into a matter of loyalty or faith, where questioning guidelines or policies was equated to opposing science itself. This led to confusion and a collapse of trust, as the public witnessed conflicting standards, such as allowing mass protests while barring people from visiting dying relatives. Friedberg adds that many scientists themselves stopped asking hard questions and defaulted to dogma, aligning behind conclusions without sufficient empiricism. People who challenged these conclusions, whether on Covid-19 measures or subjects like vaccine skepticism or specific interpretations of climate change, were frequently dismissed as conspiracy theorists, anti-science, or politically motivated outcasts.
Friedberg extends this critique to climate research, citing the now-removed RCP 8.5 scenario used in climate modeling. Although this extreme scenario lacked credibility and was ultimately dropped from formal predictions, it nonetheless dominated media coverage and influenced public perception and funding for years. According to Kratsios and Friedberg, anyone publicly questioning or criticizing the use of RCP 8.5 would be attacked as anti-science. The focus on such extreme, ideologically driven scenarios did a disservice to scientific integrity, distorting both the research agenda and public understanding.
To Restore Trust In Science, Return To Rigorous Methods and Questioning Over Authority
Kratsios and Friedberg call for a return to gold standard scientific methods based on questioning, experimentation, data collection, iteration, and humility. The scientific process, Friedberg notes, depends on continuous inquiry—a cycle of asking questions, empirically testing them, collecting data, and refining conclusions. Scientific authority should never depend on conformity or position but on open debate and willingness to reconsider prior understanding.
Adhering to humility means recognizing the provisional nature of scientific knowledge and embracing debate rather than suppressing dissent. Friedberg argues that true scientific progress depends on letting ideas emerge and compete fairly, not on ideological alignment. A healthy scientific community welcomes disagreement as part of the method, with objectiv ...
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Politicization of Science and Restoration of Integrity
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Clarifications
- Michael Kratsios is a former U.S. Chief Technology Officer who advised on science and technology policy. David Friedberg is an entrepreneur and investor with a background in technology and climate-related ventures. Both have experience engaging with science policy and public discourse on scientific integrity. Their perspectives carry weight due to their roles in technology, policy, and science-related industries.
- Dr. Anthony Fauci is an American immunologist who served as the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) during the Covid-19 pandemic. He became a leading public health advisor, frequently communicating guidance on virus mitigation measures like masking and social distancing. Fauci's recommendations evolved as new scientific data emerged, reflecting the uncertainty and changing nature of the pandemic. His prominence made him a focal point for both support and criticism in the politicized environment surrounding Covid-19.
- RCP 8.5 is a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario used in climate modeling, assuming continued heavy fossil fuel use and minimal climate policies. It projects severe warming and extreme climate impacts by 2100, often called a "worst-case" scenario. Critics argue it became less likely due to recent shifts toward cleaner energy and technological advances. Its frequent use in media and policy discussions sometimes overstated its probability, leading to claims it lacked credibility as a baseline prediction.
- "Politicization of science" means that scientific facts or research are influenced or distorted by political beliefs or agendas, rather than being based solely on evidence. This can lead to science being used to support specific political goals instead of objective truth. "Scientific dogma" refers to ideas accepted without question, even when evidence might challenge them, which contradicts the scientific method of continuous testing and skepticism. Both undermine the reliability and progress of science by limiting open inquiry and debate.
- Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) in scientific funding refers to efforts to ensure representation and fair treatment of historically underrepresented groups in research. Diversity focuses on including people of different backgrounds, such as race, gender, and ethnicity. Equity aims to provide equal access to resources and opportunities, addressing systemic barriers. Inclusion ensures that diverse individuals are actively involved and valued within scientific communities and projects.
- The National Science Foundation (NSF) funds scientific research through a competitive grant application process where researchers submit proposals evaluated for intellectual merit and broader impacts. DEI (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion) requirements ask applicants to demonstrate how their projects promote diverse participation and equitable opportunities in science. These criteria aim to address historical underrepresentation and foster inclusive research environments. Incorporating DEI into funding decisions has sparked debate about balancing scientific quality with social goals.
- DEI criteria in funding require researchers to demonstrate how their work promotes diversity, equity, and inclusion. Critics argue this can prioritize social goals over scientific quality or innovation. This may lead to funding decisions influenced by political or ideological considerations rather than purely by ...
Counterarguments
- While some scientific debates during the Covid-19 pandemic were politicized, many policy decisions were made under conditions of uncertainty and evolving evidence, which is a normal part of the scientific process.
- Labeling certain positions as "anti-science" was often a response to the spread of misinformation or unsubstantiated claims, rather than a blanket dismissal of all dissent.
- The scientific community did continue to debate and revise positions as new data emerged, as seen in changing guidelines on masking, surface transmission, and vaccine recommendations.
- The RCP 8.5 scenario was used in climate modeling as a "worst-case" scenario to help policymakers understand potential risks, not as a prediction of the most likely outcome.
- DEI criteria in grant applications are intended to address longstanding inequities in science and broaden participation, which can enhance the quality and relevance of research.
- Funding agencies have always set priorities based on a mix of scientific, societal, and policy considerations; DEI is one such consideration among many.
- Emphasizing open debate and skepticism is important, but ...
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Reforming Federal Research Funding Allocation and Improving Returns
The U.S. has dramatically increased its federal investment in biomedical research over recent decades, yet concerns are mounting over diminishing returns, inefficiencies, and a lack of transformative innovation. Current funding models and their institutional constraints have led to declining scientific productivity, signaling the need for reform in how federal research dollars are allocated.
Despite Tripling Federal Biomedical Research Investment Since 1998, Scientific Output Declines, Indicating Funding Inefficiencies
Federal biomedical research funding has more than tripled since 1998. NIH funding rose from $14 billion in 1998 to $27 billion in 2003, reaching $47 billion by 2024. Despite this surge in investment, the number of breakthrough treatments has not increased proportionally. In fact, as David Friedberg points out, scientific productivity per dollar spent has fallen remarkably—by roughly 80-fold since 1950. This trend is captured in Airthur's Law (named analogously to Moore’s Law, but in reverse), which posits that research efficiency halves every nine years. Even as federal funding grows or remains constant, the expected scientific returns diminish, highlighting critical inefficiencies in the system.
Problem: Lack of Innovation in Government Science Conduct and Capital Allocation
Michael Kratsios identifies a major issue: a lack of innovation not in the science being done, but in how federal science is managed and financed. Rather than rethinking funding structures, federal agencies like NIH and NSF have continued to operate as they always have—simply adding more money in hopes of proportionally bigger outcomes. Questions are rarely asked about alternative methods for conducting and funding science, or opening funding up to different kinds of scientists and institutions. This inertia stifles both creativity and efficiency in federal scientific research.
NSF and NIH Funding Discourages Bold, High-Risk Research
The grant process at key agencies like NSF and NIH reinforces cautious, conventional research over bold, high-risk proposals. Grant applications undergo peer review, but reviewers often favor projects falling within a "strike zone"—ideas likely to be approved and deliver reliable, low-risk results. As Friedberg explains, researchers depend on grant funding not just for their work but also for their salaries and labs, so they are incentivized to propose safe projects more likely to receive approval. This makes transformative or out-of-the-box science less likely to be funded.
Typical grant durations—usually about 18 months—are often mismatched to actual project needs, stifling both short, high-velocity experiments and long-term, ambitious projects. This further pressures scientists to conform to the system's limitations rather than pursue transformative research that might require more custom timeframes or risk tolerance.
Administration Launches Grant to Reward Ambitious Scientific Research
In response to these stagnating models, the NSF is piloting initiatives to make the system more supportive of unconventional, high-potential science. One such experiment is the introduction of "golden tickets": peer reviewers are given a limited number of tickets they can use to unilaterally back a proposal of their choice without consensus from the review committee. This mechanism, which has shown promise in Denmark and other countries, aims to encourage reviewers to select more innovative or unconventional projects and to attract higher quality reviewers to the process.
Grant programs are also experimenting with varied funding durations. New models allow for fast-tracked, six-month "sprints" for quick-turnaround projects, as well as multi-year grants (up to five years) for more complex work. The intention is to let scientists propose the duration that best matches their research, allowing for increased flexibility and more meaningful progress.
Another shift under the new vision is to fund scientists based on their talent, potential, and merit rather than their institutional affiliations. For example, programs like the NSF’s Graduate Research Fellowship Program (GRFP) are structured so recipients can take their funding to any institution, fueling competition and allowing researchers to work where they are best supported. Friedberg advocates for another alternative, likening it to venture capital: provide talented scientists with substantial, long-term resources and the freedom to pursue their own ideas, trusting that significant breakthroughs will emerge from their independence.
Supplement Traditional Federal Research Funding With Alternatives to Boost Scientific Productivity
Historically, following World War II, the U.S. ...
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Clarifications
- The National Institutes of Health (NIH) primarily funds biomedical and health-related research, making it the largest federal source for medical science. The National Science Foundation (NSF) supports a broad range of scientific disciplines, including physical sciences, engineering, and social sciences. Both agencies distribute grants to universities, research institutions, and scientists to advance knowledge and innovation. Their funding decisions significantly shape the direction and priorities of U.S. scientific research.
- "Scientific productivity per dollar spent" measures how much valuable scientific output—like discoveries, innovations, or new treatments—is generated for each unit of funding invested. It reflects the efficiency and effectiveness of research funding in producing meaningful results. A decline means that despite more money being spent, fewer significant scientific advances are achieved relative to the investment. This signals potential issues in how research funds are allocated or managed, reducing the overall impact of funding.
- Federal grant proposals are typically evaluated through a peer review process where experts assess the scientific merit, feasibility, and potential impact of the research. Reviewers score applications individually and then discuss them collectively to recommend funding decisions. Grant durations vary but commonly range from one to five years, depending on the agency and project type. Funding agencies balance project length with accountability, requiring progress reports and renewals for multi-year grants.
- "Golden tickets" are special privileges given to individual peer reviewers allowing them to approve a grant proposal independently, bypassing the usual committee consensus. This empowers reviewers to support high-risk or unconventional projects they believe in, even if others are skeptical. The system aims to reduce groupthink and encourage innovation by giving reviewers more influence over funding decisions. It has been tested in countries like Denmark to increase funding for bold scientific ideas.
- Traditional funding models allocate money through structured, peer-reviewed grants with specific goals and timelines, often tied to institutions. Venture capital-like funding gives scientists larger, flexible sums with fewer restrictions, emphasizing trust in their vision and potential for high-impact breakthroughs. This approach encourages risk-taking and long-term projects without constant oversight. It mirrors how startups receive investment to innovate rapidly and pivot as needed.
- After World War II, the U.S. government heavily invested in basic research to drive innovation and national security, primarily funding universities and public labs. This federal dominance in R&D funding supported foundational scientific discoveries that private companies were less willing to finance due to high risk and long timelines. Over time, as technology matured and markets expanded, private industry increased its R&D spending to develop commercial products and applications. Today, private sector investment surpasses federal funding, reflecting a shift toward market-driven innovation and applied research.
- Independent nonprofit research organizations like the Howard Hughes Medical Institute (HHMI) and Max Planck Institutes operate outside traditional university and government frameworks. They focus on long-term, high-risk, and fundamental scientific research that may not attract immediate funding from public or private sectors. These institutions provide stable funding and resources directly to scientists, fostering innovation without the pressure of short-term results. Their flexible structures allow them to pursue interdisciplinary and unconventional projects that can lead to significant breakthroughs.
- University overheads refer to indirect costs like facility maintenance, administration, and utilities that universities charge on top of direct research expenses. These overhead costs reduce the portion of federal funding that actually reaches the scientists and their projects. Redirecting overheads means findi ...
Counterarguments
- The apparent decline in "scientific productivity per dollar" may reflect the increasing complexity and difficulty of modern biomedical research, where early, low-hanging fruit has already been picked, making subsequent breakthroughs inherently more resource-intensive.
- Metrics like "breakthrough treatments" or simple output-per-dollar may not fully capture the value of incremental scientific advances, infrastructure building, or foundational research that enables future discoveries.
- Peer review and cautious funding models, while potentially conservative, help ensure public funds are spent responsibly and reduce the risk of waste on unproven or poorly designed projects.
- Administrative and overhead costs at universities often support essential infrastructure, compliance, and shared resources that benefit multiple research projects and ensure regulatory and ethical standards are met.
- The shift toward private sector dominance in R&D funding may reflect broader economic and industrial trends rather than a failure of federal funding models.
- High-risk, high-reward funding models can lead to more failures and may not always be appropriate for all areas of biomedical research, where patient safety and ethical considerations are paramount.
- The success of alternative funding models like "golden tickets" or portable grants in other countries or sectors may not directly translate to the U.S. context due to differences ...
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U.S.-China Competition in Scientific Output and Technological Leadership
The competition between the United States and China in scientific output and technological leadership has intensified over the past two decades. China’s rapid investment in research and development (R&D), its growing volume of scientific publications, and its aggressive industrial practices are spurring the U.S. to re-examine its own innovation ecosystem, industrial policy, and supply chain strategies.
China's Scientific Rise Spurs U.S. to Protect Leadership
China's R&D Spending Rose From $33b In 2000 To $670b In 2021, a 19-fold Rise, vs. the U.S.'s 3-Fold Increase
David Friedberg highlights the dramatic surge in China’s investment in R&D, rising from $33 billion in 2000 to $670 billion in 2021—a 19-fold increase. In the same period, U.S. R&D spending increased only about threefold. This massive increase signals China’s determination to expand its scientific and technological capacity and challenge U.S. leadership in these areas.
China Produces 50% More Scientific Papers Than the U.S., Except in Some Life Sciences
Friedberg further notes that a decade ago, the U.S. published about twice as many scientific papers as China. Now, China publishes roughly 50% more scientific papers than the U.S. across nearly all domains, with the exception of some life sciences. The credibility of these publications—many of which are peer-reviewed—suggests China is making real breakthroughs and, in some areas, establishing a lead over the U.S.
Shift in Scientific Publishing Mirrors Tech and Economic Competition Changes
The transformation in scientific publishing reflects broader changes in technological and economic competition between the two countries. As China increases its output and quality in science, this shift mirrors China’s ambitions in global economic and technology landscapes.
China's Central Scientific Approach vs. U.S. Market-Driven Model: Mixed Results
China's Top-down EUV Lithography Plans Face Challenges
Michael Kratsios contrasts the U.S. and Chinese approaches to scientific innovation. He notes that China’s top-down, centralized scientific model allows a single agency to set priorities and allocate resources. However, this model faces serious limitations, as shown by China’s struggle to develop EUV lithography technology since the U.S. imposed export controls in 2019. Despite making this a top national priority, China has so far been unable to achieve a breakthrough in this crucial technology.
U.S. Strength: Competition Among Government, Universities, Industry, and Investors Fosters Innovation Paths and Prevents Entrenched Approaches
DARPA Aligns With National Security Mission Requirements
Kratsios emphasizes that the U.S. market-driven approach, where competition among government agencies, universities, industry, and venture investors generates diverse paths to innovation, prevents the system from becoming entrenched or stagnant. He views this free-market ecosystem—supported by vibrant government funding, active industry involvement, and dynamic venture capital—as a major driver for U.S. breakthroughs. Kratsios points out that organizations like DARPA, with a clear alignment to national security mission requirements and operational independence from a single science agency, are better able to achieve mission-relevant research and development. This structure has historically yielded significant and relevant technological advances.
China's Aggressive Industrial Practices Complement Scienti ...
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U.S.-China Competition in Scientific Output and Technological Leadership
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Counterarguments
- The quantity of scientific publications does not necessarily equate to quality or impact; citation metrics and reproducibility are also important measures of scientific leadership.
- Some studies have raised concerns about the prevalence of low-quality or even fraudulent papers in China’s scientific output, which may inflate publication numbers without corresponding real-world breakthroughs.
- The U.S. continues to lead in high-impact research, Nobel Prizes, and patents, particularly in foundational and disruptive technologies.
- China’s top-down model has enabled rapid mobilization of resources and large-scale projects (e.g., high-speed rail, quantum communication satellites) that might be difficult to achieve in more decentralized systems.
- The U.S. market-driven model can sometimes lead to underinvestment in basic research or long-term projects that lack immediate commercial payoff.
- The narrative of China “dumping” products and driving out U.S. competitors is contested; some analysts argue that U.S. firms have also benefited from access to cheaper inputs and global supply chains.
- The U.S. has historically relied on global supply chains for efficiency ...
Actionables
- you can track the origin of everyday tech products you buy and choose alternatives made in countries with diversified supply chains to support resilience and reduce dependency on a single nation; for example, when shopping for electronics or appliances, check labels or product details online and opt for brands that source components from multiple regions.
- a practical way to understand the impact of centralized versus market-driven innovation is to compare how different countries respond to a recent tech challenge (like electric vehicle adoption) by reading news from both Chinese and American sources, then noting which approach leads to more diverse solutions or faster progress in your own notes.
- you can create a simpl ...
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Strengthening the Stem Pipeline and Attracting Talent
Discussion by Michael Kratsios and David Friedberg highlights deep concerns about the weakening pipeline for STEM talent in the U.S., the policies that have discouraged Americans from pursuing advanced STEM, and the failure both to incentivize domestic scientists and to retain international talent trained in the U.S.
Decline in U.S. Citizen Stem Phds Weakens Long-Term Scientific Capacity
U.s.-born Ph.d. Recipients in Computer Science Percentage Inverted Over Three Decades
Kratsios observes a striking reversal over the past 30 years in the percentage of U.S.-born PhD recipients in computer science: while 70% were American and 30% foreign three decades ago, the trend has now inverted, with only 30% being American and 70% foreign-born.
Most Stem Phd Candidates in U.S. Aren't American Citizens, Highlighting Domestic Talent Gap
Kratsios highlights this shift, noting that seven out of ten STEM-related PhD candidates in the U.S. are not American citizens. This marks a significant gap in cultivating and retaining domestic scientific talent, despite the country’s longstanding tradition of investing in education.
Declining American Stem Interest and Foreign Talent Recruitment Create Vulnerability
The loss of American interest in pursuing STEM, coupled with the growing reliance on foreign talent, raises concerns about national vulnerability in science and technology. As more international candidates fill PhD spots, the U.S. risks losing its long-term scientific and technological edge.
Policies Discourage Advanced Stem Education Among Talented Americans
Nsf's Gifted-Student Stem Programs Ended Despite Building Talent Pipeline
Kratsios recounts how the National Science Foundation previously ran programs to encourage gifted and talented students in high schools and middle schools to pursue STEM. The discontinuation of these programs cut off an important source of future American scientists.
Eliminating Advanced Math In Secondary Education Limits High-Performing Students' Opportunities to Develop Foundational Skills for Scientific Careers
He also points to trends, particularly in California, where school systems have eliminated advanced courses like algebra for high school students. This restricts opportunities for high-performing students to develop foundational math skills critical for scientific careers.
Uc Drops Sat Requirement, Leading To More Berkeley Students Needing Remedial Math, Impacting Student Success and Scientific Training Quality
Friedberg notes that the University of California’s decision to drop SAT requirements has led to more students needing remedial math at prestigious universities like UC Berkeley. Previously, top math SAT scores were essential for admission, ensuring a higher baseline of preparedness for rigorous scientific training.
Incentivizing Stem Careers For Americans Requires Structural Changes in Supporting and Rewarding Young Scientists
Challenges for Early-Career Scientists: Low Pay, Uncertain Prospects, Grant Pressure
Kratsios describes early-career scientists as among the most underpaid for the value they provide. Young researchers finishing PhDs enter academic careers with low salaries, considerable pressure to secure grants, and uncertain long-term job prospects.
Golden Age Report Highlights Elevation of Scientists Via Programs Like Nsf's Grfp Funding 2,600 Aspiring Phds
Efforts to address this, such as the National Science Foundation’s Graduate Research Fellowship Program (GRFP), fund about 2,600 of the country’s most promising aspiring PhDs each year. These fellowships provide portable funding, making universities compete to attract awardees and enabling researchers to choose environments where they can excel.
Rewarding High Performers and Supporting ...
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Strengthening the Stem Pipeline and Attracting Talent
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Clarifications
- The National Science Foundation (NSF) is a U.S. government agency that funds scientific research and education across all non-medical fields of science and engineering. Its Graduate Research Fellowship Program (GRFP) supports outstanding graduate students in STEM by providing financial support and recognition early in their careers. This funding helps recipients focus on research without financial stress and enhances their academic and professional opportunities. The NSF plays a key role in shaping the future scientific workforce and advancing U.S. innovation.
- Portable funding means that fellowship money is awarded directly to the student, not tied to a specific university or advisor. This allows students to choose or change their research institution without losing financial support. It increases flexibility and bargaining power for students in selecting the best environment for their work. Portable funding encourages competition among universities to attract top talent.
- Dropping SAT requirements removes a standardized measure of students' math skills during admissions. Without this benchmark, universities may admit students with weaker math preparation. These students then require remedial courses to build foundational skills. Remedial classes delay progress and strain resources.
- Advanced math courses like algebra build critical problem-solving and analytical skills essential for understanding higher-level STEM subjects. Without early exposure to these courses, students may struggle with calculus, physics, and computer science in college. This gap reduces the pool of students prepared for rigorous STEM degrees and careers. Consequently, limiting access to advanced math narrows the future domestic STEM talent pipeline.
- Early-career scientists are researchers who have recently completed their PhDs and are beginning independent research roles. They often rely on securing competitive grants to fund their work, which can be highly uncertain and time-consuming. Academic positions are limited, leading to job insecurity and frequent temporary contracts. This combination creates financial stress and career instability during a critical professional development phase.
- Foreign-trained scientists often face complex visa and immigration processes that limit their ability to stay in the U.S. after completing their education. Lengthy application times, restrictive work permits, and uncertain legal status create barriers to long-term employment. Additionally, limited access to permanent residency reduces incentives for these scientists to remain. Competing countries offer streamlined immigration and better benefits, making retention in the U.S. more difficult.
- Many countries offer competitive salaries, housing subsidies, and streamlined visa processes to attract international scientists. They create dedicated research centers and provide funding opportunities tailored to foreign talent. Some governments also offer permanent residency or citizenship incentives linked to scientific contributions. These measures contrast with the U.S., where immigration and funding challenges can hinder retention of international r ...
Counterarguments
- The high proportion of foreign-born STEM PhD recipients in the U.S. reflects the global prestige and attractiveness of American graduate programs, which can enhance the quality and diversity of research.
- Reliance on international talent has historically contributed to U.S. scientific leadership, as many foreign-born graduates remain in the U.S. and make significant contributions to innovation and the economy.
- The decline in U.S.-born STEM PhDs may be influenced by broader societal trends, such as changing career preferences and the rise of lucrative opportunities in technology and finance that do not require a PhD.
- Eliminating standardized tests like the SAT can increase access and equity for students from underrepresented or disadvantaged backgrounds, potentially broadening the talent pool.
- Advanced math course tracking in secondary education has been criticized for reinforcing educational inequities and limiting opportunities for late-blooming students.
- The discontinuation of certain NSF programs may be offset by other initiatives or by increased STEM outreach and enrichment opportunities from private organizations, nonprofits, and local governments.
- The number of NSF Graduate Research Fellowships is limited, but other funding sources and fello ...
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Rethinking Science Funding and Diversifying Funding Flows
Current trends in science funding in the United States highlight a pressing need to revisit government priorities, with a special emphasis on supporting early-stage research and diversifying who and what gets funding.
Government Should Fund Early-Stage Research Over Market-Driven R&d
U.S. R&d Funding: 70% Private, 30% Government, Reversing Post-Wwii Ratio
Michael Kratsios notes a dramatic shift in the funding landscape for research and development (R&D) over the past 70 years. Today, roughly 70 percent of R&D is financed by the private sector, while just 30 percent comes from federal government sources. This stands in stark contrast to the post-World War II era when the government was the primary funder. Kratsios argues for a return to government-led support for early-stage, pre-competitive research, especially discovery science. These are areas where private sector incentives are weak or nonexistent, making it an essential role for public investment.
Private Industry Prioritizes Near-Term Revenue, Leaving Gaps In Fundamental Research on Sciences Lacking Immediate Commercial Applications but Essential for Future Breakthroughs
David Friedberg points out that while hundreds of billions of dollars are now flowing into fields with obvious commercial applications, like AI, quantum computing, or life sciences, private industry naturally focuses on research likely to generate near-term revenue. This leaves fundamental sciences, such as deep space exploration, the origins of the universe, and pure physics, underfunded. History demonstrates, Friedberg notes, that advances in these disciplines often yield applications years later that cannot be foreseen in the present.
Government Funds Discovery Science; Markets Drive Commercialization
Kratsios describes an ideal model where the government funds the discovery phase of science, which creates foundational knowledge, while the private sector takes the lead on commercializing these discoveries. This approach leverages the strengths of both public and private sectors, ensuring society benefits from fundamental science that industry alone would neglect.
Government Investment Justified For Space, Quantum, Fusion, and Ai Projects
The Administration's Targets: American Boots on the Moon by 2028, a Nuclear Reactor in Space by 2028, Relevant Quantum Computing by 2028, and Fusion Energy by 2035, Need Sustained Federal Coordination
Michael Kratsios outlines ambitious federal goals: American astronauts back on the moon by 2028, a nuclear reactor in space by 2028, the first elements of a moon base by 2030, a scientifically relevant quantum computer by 2028, and commercial fusion energy by 2035. Achieving these targets demands multiyear, coordinated government action and investment.
"Genesis Mission" Uses Ai to Double Us Scientific Output in Materials Science, Chemistry, Math, and Physics, Enhancing Research and Accelerating Discovery
Kratsios highlights the “Genesis Mission,” a flagship initiative aiming to double the United States’ scientific output by directing artificial intelligence at the nation’s hardest scientific problems. He contends that AI will be the greatest amplifier of discovery in history, accelerating research in materials science, chemistry, mathematics, and physics. This initiative now involves participation from across the federal government.
Portfolio Approach Balancing Societal Challenges and Discovery Science
Kratsios advocates a “New Golden Age” model: along with focused, mission-driven government investment in large-scale national targets, the U.S. should maintain robust funding for basic discovery science. This balanced portfolio ensures readiness for both near-term societal challenges and foundational advances that power future industries.
Fund Scientists and Ideas Based On Merit, Not Institutional Prestige
Golden Age Principle: Support Excellent Science Across Institutions
A key tenet of Kratsios’ vision is that funding decisions should prioritize the merit of individual scientists and ideas, rather than the institutional prestige of their host organizations. He stresses the importance of supporting scientific excellence regardless of a researcher’s background, home ins ...
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Rethinking Science Funding and Diversifying Funding Flows
Additional Materials
Counterarguments
- Private sector dominance in R&D funding can drive efficiency and innovation by aligning research with market needs, potentially leading to faster commercialization and societal benefits.
- Market-driven R&D has produced significant technological advances and economic growth, suggesting that private incentives can be effective in advancing science and technology.
- Some fundamental research, such as in AI and quantum computing, is already receiving substantial private investment, challenging the notion that only government can or will fund early-stage science in these fields.
- Government funding processes can be slow, bureaucratic, and risk-averse, potentially stifling innovation compared to more agile private sector approaches.
- Prioritizing merit over institutional prestige in funding decisions is challenging in practice, as established institutions often provide infrastructure, mentorship, and collaborative environments that support high-quality research.
- Diversifying funding streams may dilute resources, potentially reducing the impact of investments if not carefully managed.
- The high me ...
Actionables
- you can support early-stage, discovery-focused research by donating even small amounts to crowdfunding campaigns or nonprofits that fund fundamental science projects, especially those led by lesser-known scientists or from underrepresented regions, helping diversify funding streams and reduce concentration at elite institutions.
- a practical way to encourage merit-based recognition is to nominate or publicly highlight the work of individual researchers whose ideas impress you, regardless of their institutional affiliation, through social media shoutouts, blog posts, or letters to local science organizations, amplifying their visibility and impact.
- you can help revitalize sc ...
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1-Page Summary- Politicization of Science and Restoration of Integrity
- Reforming Federal Research Funding Allocation and Improving Returns
- U.S.-China Competition in Scientific Output and Technological Leadership
- Strengthening the Stem Pipeline and Attracting Talent
- Rethinking Science Funding and Diversifying Funding Flows
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