PDF Summary:The Hundred-Year Marathon, by Michael Pillsbury

The United States has long been optimistic about China's intentions, believing its economic rise would lead to greater openness and cooperation. But in The Hundred-Year Marathon, Michael Pillsbury argues China has been strategically deceiving the West. He claims China has covertly followed a century-long plan to surpass the United States and achieve global domination by 2049.

The author outlines China's alleged tactics: manipulating American business and political leaders, building its military capabilities while avoiding confrontation, and spreading propaganda to obscure its true ambitions. Pillsbury believes the US must change its approach, moving beyond cooperation to recognize China as a determined adversary. He proposes countermeasures to preserve America's technological edge and promote reform within China.

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China's genuine objectives were kept hidden.

Pillsbury argues that disguising China's true goals is a key element of the strategy for the Hundred-Year Marathon.

Masking true objectives while concurrently strengthening one's capabilities.

Pillsbury argues that China has skillfully concealed its true ambitions by presenting itself as an underdeveloped nation seeking assistance from the West. The approach of quietly improving one's capabilities while keeping one's strategic goals concealed is in accordance with China's age-old tactical teachings.

China shies away from engaging in outright conflict with the United States until its own strengths are sufficiently bolstered.

Pillsbury argues that China has avoided direct confrontation with the U.S. for decades, patiently "keeping a low profile" and "biding its time" until it is strong enough to challenge, and ultimately overtake, America.

Shaping perceptions of China.

Understanding the techniques China employs to shape international perspectives is essential for recognizing its long-term strategic objectives, as indicated by Pillsbury.

Capitalizing on the often unfounded optimism of American stakeholders

Pillsbury argues that China has adeptly exploited America's hopeful beliefs regarding its ultimate objectives by spreading misleading narratives of benign advancement and shared triumph with Western nations, while simultaneously pursuing tactics that are in direct opposition to the interests of the United States.

China's rise is depicted as benign by controlling media narratives, withholding information, and using propaganda techniques.

China utilizes a multifaceted approach to shape international perceptions of its goals, including the dissemination of propaganda, the imposition of censorship, and the tight control of media both domestically and abroad. This entails promoting favorable depictions of China's non-aggressive emergence via state-run media and scholarly channels, while at the same time suppressing dissenting opinions and criticizing those who speak against the Chinese government.

Shaping the strategic policy course of the United States.

Pillsbury underscores the considerable influence of China's tactics on shaping policy and steering the decision-making of the United States.

Classifying U.S. officials according to whether they support or oppose China's stance.

Pillsbury divides American policymakers and analysts into distinct camps based on their approach to China: one group is considered friendly, while the other is seen as oppositional. China utilizes specific communication tactics to influence various groups, capitalizing on pre-existing ideological divisions to steer their actions in a manner that benefits China.

China implements a tactic of nurturing partnerships while simultaneously reducing opposition through the provision of prospects, the offering of motivations, and the application of sway.

China employs various tactics to exert influence over different entities. China cultivates alliances by offering commercial prospects, positive media representation from outlets influenced by the government, and opportunities for interaction with officials at the upper echelons of power. Meanwhile, he observes that they reprimand those they consider adversaries, including journalists, academics, and policymakers, through the refusal of visas, withholding information and contacts, and by initiating synchronized campaigns aimed at tarnishing their standing and sway.

China has a distinct advantage due to its possession of military capabilities.

This section will explore the development of China's unorthodox military strengths aimed at diminishing the United States' strategic advantage.

The strategy referred to as "Assassin's Mace"

Pillsbury puts forth the view that China's strategic military approaches place significant emphasis on utilizing the "Assassin's Mace," which is designed to exploit what are seen as vital vulnerabilities of the United States.

China has focused on developing cost-effective and powerful weaponry designed to target specific vulnerabilities within the United States' defense systems.

Pillsbury argues that China strategically develops cost-effective weaponry with substantial effects, particularly crafted to take advantage of perceived vulnerabilities in the United States, such as its dependence on sophisticated technology. Pillsbury discusses the methods by which China cultivates its "shashoujian," or "Assassin’s Mace" capabilities. He argues that the primary aim of China's military progress is to confront and reduce the dominant military power of the United States.

American dominance is encountering competition in areas such as space, cyber, and naval warfare.

Pillsbury argues that this collection includes a broad spectrum of apparatus, including sophisticated tools for electronic combat, missile systems, and devices designed for conflicts in both outer space and the digital realm. He contends that such armaments, designed to debilitate the United States' capacity for leadership, communication, and provisioning, could substantially alter the balance of power in favor of China, thus eroding America's tactical advantage and escalating the risks linked to its pledges of backing allies and partners.

Minor victories overshadow the significant ones.

China's military advancement calls for a sweeping change in strategy, moving away from conventional armed forces to more irregular formations, embodying the concept that apparent weakness can be used to surmount strength.

China utilizes a range of unorthodox strategies, such as engaging in cyber and electronic warfare, to offset the traditional military superiority of the United States.

Pillsbury contends that a specific approach in Chinese military policy, which is characterized by the tactics a weaker opponent employs to overcome a stronger adversary, is demonstrated through a calculated plan to erode the military supremacy of the United States by deploying cost-effective but powerful weapons and tactics that exploit vulnerabilities in American forces. Michael Pillsbury emphasizes the significant investment China has made in cyberwarfare, electronic warfare, and antisatellite capabilities, highlighting the nation's approach to leverage America's reliance on information systems and interconnected infrastructure.

Enhancing their abilities while steering clear of measures that might elicit a response from the United States.

China focuses on enhancing its military prowess while simultaneously ensuring that such actions do not raise suspicions or concerns within the United States.

In order to avoid a situation where increased military capabilities might trigger an arms race or provoke defensive measures from the United States.

Pillsbury argues that China has deliberately avoided a significant increase in its military capabilities to avert triggering an arms race. China has been consistently increasing its defense spending, broadening its military reach, and enhancing its nuclear capabilities, indicating a strategic approach to steer clear of premature clashes with the prevailing world superpower. Pillsbury stresses that this restraint is strategic and tactical, designed to advance the Marathon’s aims.

China's maneuvers have significant consequences for American policy, rivalry, and national security.

While the author is quite critical of current U.S. policies and strategies, he also offers advice on a more effective approach.

The United States must develop a new strategic approach.

The author argues that it is essential to completely overhaul how the United States engages with Beijing to foster more constructive relations with China.

The relationship between the United States and China is fundamentally rooted in competition.

Pillsbury contends that it is crucial for the United States to discard the erroneous notion of China desiring a partnership with America and to formulate a plan acknowledging China as a rival or, minimally, an opponent. It is essential to accurately assess China's ambitions, fully understand its capabilities, and recognize that the era of America's unparalleled global supremacy is approaching its conclusion.

Adopting a more realistic and scrutinizing perspective towards China's long-term goals.

Pillsbury argues that for the U.S. to preserve its status in the Hundred-Year Marathon, it must adopt a cautious and pragmatic stance towards China, carefully examining every pronouncement and move from the Chinese government, and thoroughly assessing everything from their claims of a peaceful rise to their pronouncements about economic and political reforms. In summary, his argument posits that China ought to be viewed persistently as a rival instead of a partner or ally, mirroring their stance towards the United States.

Approaches the United States might employ to preserve its advantage during the entire span of the Hundred-Year Marathon.

This section argues for the necessity of the United States to devise and apply solid strategies to engage competitively with China.

Assessing how the United States measures up to China in terms of competition.

Pillsbury argues that a thorough evaluation and persistent monitoring of America's position in essential domains such as the economy, technology, the military, and politics are imperative to effectively counter this strategy. It is essential for the United States to develop strong systems to accurately assess its competitive position relative to China, in the same manner that Chinese officials have meticulously analyzed the United States' capabilities and weak points.

Developing a plan to improve the country's competitive advantage.

Pillsbury advocates for a comprehensive approach that boosts the United States' competitive edge on the world stage through fostering innovation, augmenting financial investments, and spearheading advancements in technology.

Engaging with countries that are wary of China's rise to power.

Pillsbury encourages the United States to work alongside allies and partners globally to form a unified front to counteract the growing boldness and sway of Beijing. He argues for the importance of strengthening the United States' global alliances, which he believes have recently diminished.

Promoting the advancement of democratic transformation within China.

Pillsbury emphasizes the significance of supporting those in China who are working towards a governance system that is more transparent and less autocratic, viewing it as a vital tactic in the current rivalry.

Protecting the unique technological advancements and confidential data of the United States.

Pillsbury advises that Washington should take decisive action to safeguard America's leading position in the economy and technology by thwarting China's activities, which include stealing intellectual property and launching cyber espionage operations. A combination of proactive measures and strategic planning should be utilized to deter China and increase its costs, thereby protecting American interests.

The consequences are substantial for the United States as well as for the international community.

The author concludes by warning of the possible outcomes if China's strategy is successfully implemented.

A possible future where global supremacy is held by China, shaping a world order rooted in the principles of China.

The author stresses the importance of the United States revising its approach to China, underlining the risk that if the goals of the Hundred-Year Marathon come to fruition, we might face a future where China's ascent shapes international standards. Given that China’s values, both historically and today, have often championed autocratic rule, stringent control of information, and naked mercantilism, such a world, Pillsbury warns, would pose a significant risk to the foundational values of openness, diligently fostered by the United States alongside its allies over the past century, including democratic governance and the principles of free enterprise.

It is the duty of the United States to protect its national interests, maintain its foundational principles, and secure its own safety.

It is crucial for the United States to completely understand the significant challenge presented by China, which requires discarding any previous assumptions, in order to effectively compete and prevail. The foundation of this assumption lay in a misinterpretation of Beijing's goals. Michael Pillsbury recommends a multifaceted strategy that integrates economic, technological, military, and diplomatic initiatives to address what he perceives as the most significant threat to national security in the current era.