PDF Summary:The Coming Wave, by Mustafa Suleyman

We're entering an era where technology can manipulate life at its most basic level and create systems that rival human intelligence. In The Coming Wave, Mustafa Suleyman examines the next wave of technological advancement, centered on artificial intelligence and synthetic biology. These technologies are becoming more powerful, accessible, and difficult to control—and they pose risks ranging from cyberattacks and misinformation to engineered pandemics and the destabilization of governments.

Suleyman explores why these technologies are accelerating so rapidly and spreading so widely. He discusses the threats they pose to global stability and explains why neither abandoning nor fully embracing them is a viable option. Finally, he outlines potential strategies for managing these technologies, arguing that containment requires multiple coordinated approaches working together to guide technological development in ways that benefit humanity while minimizing catastrophic risks.

(continued)...

Enzymatic Synthesis of DNA

While enzymatic synthesis of DNA is less wasteful than traditional methods, it’s not entirely free from harmful waste. In a research article, biochemists and molecular biologists explain that the traditional method of DNA synthesis, phosphoramidite chemistry, uses organic solvents that are toxic and difficult to dispose of. Enzymatic synthesis, on the other hand, uses water-based solutions and enzymes, which are less harmful to the environment. However, the process still generates some waste, such as unused nucleotides and enzymes, which need to be disposed of properly. While enzymatic synthesis is a step in the right direction, it’s not a perfect solution. Scientists are still working on ways to make the process even more environmentally friendly.

Dynamics of Acceleration and Proliferation

Suleyman asserts that technology proliferates rapidly and becomes increasingly accessible over time. This is driven by demand, which leads to cost decreases, and by the reality that each new technology enables further innovations. People develop technology, driven by financial gain, notoriety, and knowledge, and improve through practice and imitation. Imitation encourages rivalry, and large-scale manufacturing cuts expenses. Civilization has an insatiable desire for affordable, practical tech.

Technology operates within a multifaceted and ever-changing framework where results have unpredictable effects. As technology spreads, it becomes accessible for a wider audience to utilize, modify, and influence. However, as our tools exponentially gain power, so do potential harms. As technology grows in strength, it becomes increasingly woven into every facet of living and societal structures. Technology's issues generally intensify as it becomes more capable, increasing the need for containment over time.

The Relationship Between Technological Progress and Risk

Suleyman’s assertion that technology proliferates rapidly and that its problems intensify as it becomes more capable is supported by empirical evidence and theoretical frameworks. For example, the concept of risk homeostasis suggests that as technology becomes more capable and seemingly safer, people may take greater risks, leading to an overall increase in harm. This phenomenon has been observed in various domains, such as transportation safety and public health. For instance, the introduction of seat belts led to riskier driving behavior, offsetting some of the safety benefits. Similarly, advancements in medical technology have sometimes led to overuse and increased healthcare costs. These examples illustrate how technological progress can create complex feedback loops, where improvements in capability can paradoxically lead to greater overall risk or harm.

In the following sections, we’ll look at the mechanisms of technological acceleration and proliferation and discuss the systemic impacts of the approaching wave.

Acceleration and Proliferation Mechanisms

Suleyman describes upcoming wave technologies as "omni-use," meaning they have broad applications and can be adapted for multiple purposes. These technologies have more worth than limited ones because they have wider societal effects and spillovers. However, the more powerful a technology, the greater the concern about its potential uses. The upcoming wave's weaponization or harmful uses will be feasible whether or not they're intentional. Developing civilian technologies has implications for national security, and predicting the complete range of potential applications in this historically most versatile era is more challenging than before.

Omni-Use Technologies and General Purpose Technologies

Suleyman’s concept of “omni-use” technologies is similar to the economic concept of “general purpose technologies” (GPTs). Economists have studied GPTs to understand their role in long-term economic growth. Lipsey, Carlaw, and Bekar (2005) argue that GPTs are technologies that have broad applications across multiple sectors and can be adapted for various purposes. They suggest that GPTs are more valuable than specialized technologies because they have wider societal effects and spillovers. This framework could be useful for understanding the potential impact of upcoming wave technologies.

Systemic Effects of These Changes

Suleyman believes the technological surge ahead will have profound systemic impacts, including a massive redistribution of power. It will build new companies, reinforce authoritarian rule, and give groups the power to live beyond conventional social frameworks. The state-nation, which is the basis of our current political order, will become more fragile due to multiple jolts: new types of violence, an onslaught of false information, jobs vanishing, and potential disastrous accidents. The nation-state's fragile equilibrium will face intense pressure precisely when we need it most.

(Shortform note: Some political scientists argue that emerging technologies can actually reinforce the power of nation-states. Henry Farrell and Abraham L. Newman argue that the dense networks of technology and trade that connect the world can be used by powerful states to exert control over others. They argue that the US, for example, can use its control over key parts of the global financial system to monitor and restrict the flow of money, giving it significant leverage over other countries.)

The Control Challenge and Potential Responses

Now we’ll describe the threat landscape and explore strategies for containment.

The Threat Landscape

Suleyman asserts that emerging technologies pose significant threats to global stability. AI and synthetic biology could destabilize or completely change the geopolitical balance of power. They create opportunities for AI-powered cyberattacks, automated wars, and engineered pandemics. While the odds of these events are low, their potential consequences are enormous and demand urgent attention. Certain nations will respond to these risks by becoming authoritarian and surveilling citizens to limit the influence of these new forces. Others will respond with restrictions, disincentives, and suspensions.

(Shortform note: In “The Techno-Optimist Manifesto,” the venture capitalist Marc Andreessen argues that emerging technologies are more likely to enhance global stability than undermine it. He contends that technological progress, especially in areas like AI, is the central driver of sustained prosperity, human flourishing, and liberal freedom worldwide, and that advancing these technologies is how we secure a more peaceful and stable future. Andreessen rejects the idea that emerging technologies are the primary threats to global stability, arguing that this view is rooted in a pessimistic, anti-human ideology that has historically led to authoritarianism and stagnation.)

However, Suleyman believes it’s unlikely that countries or companies will be convinced to abandon the transformative potential of these innovations. Banning the advancement of emerging technologies poses a risk because societies that become technologically stagnant have historically been unstable and susceptible to collapse. There are significant risks in either embracing or avoiding new technologies. The likelihood of escaping both a techno-authoritarian nightmare and an openness-driven disaster decreases as technology becomes less expensive, more powerful, and more widespread. However, it's also not feasible to abandon these technologies. The advantages offered by these technologies are now more crucial than they've ever been. The core dilemma is that, sooner or later, an advanced era of technology directs humanity to outcomes that are either dystopian or catastrophic.

Societal Collapse and Diminishing Returns

In The Collapse of Complex Societies, Joseph A. Tainter argues that societies typically do not break down because they cease to innovate, but because their problem-solving institutions generate rising costs and diminishing marginal returns. As resources, economic organization, and political structures become increasingly strained, further investment in complexity becomes an unsustainable strategy. Collapse, then, appears as a rational (though drastic) reduction in social complexity rather than as the direct result of a lack of technological progress.

Now we’ll examine the AI-enabled threats that comprise the risk landscape.

AI-Enabled Threats

Suleyman explains that artificial intelligence may facilitate cyberattacks and other threats. AI-powered weapons will constantly examine networks, independently adjusting to discover and take advantage of vulnerabilities. AI can also identify lawful or monetary strategies to harm companies or other organizations. It can analyze global legalities to identify loopholes and leverage legal nuances. Additionally, AI can devise automated trading methods meant to damage competitors’ standings or produce disinformation campaigns. It can orchestrate a bank run or persuade people to avoid a product, allowing a rival to step in and purchase the business or merely observe its downfall. AI can also create ways to build trust and exert influence, using in-depth emotional and behavioral analysis to read and manipulate us in disturbing ways.

AI and the Power of Targeted Interventions

AI can orchestrate bank runs and disinformation campaigns by identifying the minimal set of interventions needed to trigger a cascade of self-reinforcing behaviors. In How Behavior Spreads, Damon Centola explains that large-scale social change often emerges not from blanket messaging to an entire population, but from small, precisely located interventions that exploit the structure of social networks. Because many behaviors are complex contagions that require multiple confirming exposures from trusted peers, the key to triggering a cascade is to identify the minimal set of strategically positioned individuals whose adoption creates reinforcing pathways of influence, pushing the system past a critical threshold and producing a self-sustaining, system-wide diffusion of new norms and practices.

Strategies for Containment

Suleyman argues that restricting technology requires a multifaceted approach. No single measure is sufficient to contain technological advancement. Instead, containment requires a combination of measures that reinforce each other. These measures include technical safety, audits, strategic barriers, responsible makers, businesses, government, alliances, culture, and movements. The final step is making sure these measures all work together seamlessly.

Integrating Diverse Perspectives

In Tools and Weapons, Brad Smith and Carol Ann Browne argue that effective oversight of powerful digital technologies requires a permanent, senior-level body that unites engineering, legal, policy, and business leaders. This body should maintain a single, organization-wide view of significant technology risks and have the authority to delay, reshape, or cancel projects when those risks are not adequately mitigated. This approach operationalizes Suleyman’s call for multifaceted containment by creating a single, empowered entity responsible for integrating diverse perspectives and making tough decisions about technology deployment.

Suleyman explains that managing containment involves controlling and restricting technology. It entails the capacity to regulate, restrict, and, if necessary, halt technologies during any phase of their creation or implementation. Containment is about effectively regulating, the power to end an application, alter the course of research, or restrict harmful individuals' access. It involves maintaining the capacity to guide waves so their effects align with our principles, aid in human thriving, and avoid creating major detriments that exceed their advantages.

The Limits of Containment

These ideas break down when powerful capabilities can be replicated cheaply by many small, globally dispersed actors. In such cases, no single authority can realistically “halt” the technologies at any phase of their creation or implementation. The ability to “alter the course of research” or “restrict harmful individuals' access” becomes moot when the research and access are distributed across thousands of independent actors. The notion of “maintaining the capacity to guide waves” presupposes a level of centralized control that simply doesn't exist in a world where technological power is widely distributed.