PDF Summary:Why the West Rules—for Now, by Ian Morris

Why did the West rise to global dominance, and will its prominence continue in the future? In Why the West Rules—for Now, Ian Morris tackles these big questions by looking at the broad patterns that have shaped human history. Morris argues that despite common ancestry and comparable cultural practices, Western and Eastern civilizations diverged due to differing geographical impacts on factors like agriculture and energy usage.

The book follows the cyclical surges and retreats of Eastern and Western dominance across millennia. While the outlook shifted following the Industrial Revolution, Morris suggests that the future course remains uncertain. By taking both sweeping and detailed views of societal development and decline, the book offers a fresh perspective on what enabled the West's ascendancy and hints at what may be in store for modern global civilization.

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The divergence and subsequent convergence of societal evolution between Eastern and Western societies were shaped by the impact of their respective geographical environments, technological progress, and cultural trend transformations.

This section of the narrative delves into the factors that fostered the initial divergence and eventual convergence of societal development, culminating in the societies of the East overtaking those of the West as the sixth century CE approached. Morris contends that the observable differences stem from geographic influences rather than variances in genetics, cultural practices, or choices made by societies in the East or West.

The initial ascent of Western civilizations during the first millennium BCE was greatly shaped by their beneficial location near the Mediterranean Sea.

Morris posits that between 3000 and 1200 BCE, the Western world's primary edge lay in its societal advancements, which surpassed those of the Eastern world by nearly two thousand years.

The emergence of cost-effective means of transport has spurred the growth of trade and the expansion of urban areas.

During this era, Morris describes how the Western core's growth extended from the initial centers of human civilization in the Fertile Crescent and the Nile Valley to include the entire Mediterranean area, propelled by the substantial benefits of maritime commerce on the Mediterranean, which allowed for cost-effective transportation of bulky goods such as food and brought peripheral zones into the central domain of power. In Greece, the local inhabitants utilized their longstanding heritage of commerce and conflict, along with the advantages of their landscape, to evolve from a peripheral area into a land dotted with independent city-states. In approximately 1500 BCE, the Greeks initiated the development of complex administrative structures, including intricate palaces and organizational systems, that showed similarities to those in Egypt and Mesopotamia, by adopting and at times discarding various practices and technologies from the more developed societies to their east.

The Mediterranean's role as a channel for migrations, invasions, and tumultuous events contributed to the emergence of instability.

Morris highlights how the growth of commerce led to demographic changes and improvements in military capabilities, which allowed peripheral societies to take advantage of the core Western area's dependence on commerce. The rise of horse and chariot advancements around 2000 BCE throughout the Eurasian plains facilitated the formation of nascent states by peoples such as the Hurrians in Anatolia and subsequently the Mycenaeans in Greece, which outstripped the pre-existing prosperous central states in martial prowess, culminating in the conquest and plundering of an extensive area of the eastern Mediterranean by the fourteenth century BCE.

Sophisticated systems of governance and territories developed simultaneously across both the Eastern and Western hemispheres.

The emergence of early horseback riders and seafaring explorers necessitated substantial organizational transformations in states across both hemispheres, culminating in the rise of sophisticated states distinguished by the establishment of distinct administrative roles, consistent remuneration for soldiers, defined job specializations, and intricate resource management systems. The operation of these advanced states required significantly more resources due to their size and complexity, but they demonstrated greater resilience against the internal power struggles that often plagued less developed states, and they wielded the capacity to deploy far stronger military forces.

Assyria and Qin both implemented policies that involved the creation of paid armies, the development of unified administrative systems, and the expansion of their territories.

Morris proposes that throughout history, both Eastern and Western societies have experienced recurring cycles where the significant challenges of creating and maintaining complex governments prompted some rulers to cut expenses (and augment their personal fortunes) by making deals with military commanders and bureaucrats, a practice that invariably resulted in diminished societal cohesion and periods of domestic strife, ultimately leading to the reestablishment of centralized control. By the time the first millennium BCE concluded, prominent nations had surfaced in both hemispheres, each organized around complex structures. The Assyrians rose to power in Mesopotamia, creating a vast empire that would later be overtaken by the Persians, with both empires exerting control over territories that are present-day Turkey, Iran, Syria, and Palestine. Meanwhile, in the East, the powerful Qin dynasty utilized similar tactics to conquer the entire Yellow and Yangzi river basins in the second century BCE.

The primary forms of governance were subject to limitations within the foremost civilizations.

Morris does not assert that societies with more advanced developments are inherently better than those that are less developed. As societies progressed, the leading countries sharpened their capacity to gather essential resources that were crucial for expanding their cities, broadening their influence, and maintaining their military might in a world where competition was intensifying. The Zhou dynasty's practice of using family connections to build its military led to the creation of a small chariot force that often suffered losses in battle, in contrast to the structured military organization in Rome and Qin, which facilitated the formation of more substantial forces.

Axial thought arose as a result of societal progress rather than serving as a driving force for it.

The assertion suggests that the swift advancement in societal evolution was a catalyst for, rather than a consequence of, the era referred to as the Axial Age, which was a concept introduced by German philosopher Karl Jaspers.

The quest for individual spiritual growth led to the dismissal of leaders who were revered as deities.

During the period of around 500 BCE, there was a remarkable surge in groundbreaking spiritual and philosophical movements, including the emergence of significant teachings and doctrines in China, the birth of Buddhism and Jainism in India, as well as the development of Greek philosophy and the initial texts of the Hebrew tradition that subsequently formed the cornerstone of Christian and Muslim sacred writings, within the Western region. Philosophers from various backgrounds highlighted the possibility for personal growth, finding fulfillment in a deeper aspect of reality that transcends everyday life. They generally rejected the idea that monarchs possess divine authority to act as go-betweens for the mortal world and the holy, choosing personal discipline over externally mandated ceremonial practices. The emergence of this trend led to a clear separation between religious authority and governmental power, a distinction that did not exist in ancient civilizations.

The core discussions and debates within ancient writings of both Eastern and Western origins may differ, but they share a similarity in essence.

The theory posits that the dominance of the West has its roots in the ancient Greeks' shift towards a pursuit of knowledge that is confirmable and grounded in logical deduction. Morris contends that this view is incorrect, similar to previous biological theories. Thinkers from ancient Greece, similar to those from China and India, spanned a spectrum that included both mystical and rational elements, but their counterparts in the cultures of Asia, both in the East and the South, tended to blend logical reasoning more harmoniously with deep-seated spiritual practices. An aristocrat from China chose to abandon his aspirations of nurturing bamboo in the tranquility of his private garden, just as a progeny of an Iranian cleric embarked on a journey, rather than an Athenian. The essential change that distinguished the current period from past times manifested in the comprehensive structuring of the scholarly terrain, not in the specific components it comprised. Before the rise of large, bureaucratically organized, high-end states with their disenchantment of the world, people simply did not worry much about these matters.

Other Perspectives

• The role of geography in societal development is significant, but it is not the sole factor; human agency, political institutions, and chance events also play crucial roles in shaping societies.
• While the Mediterranean Sea facilitated trade and cultural exchange, it also led to conflicts and invasions that could have hindered societal progress at various points in history.
• The assertion that Western civilizations' ascent was due to their geographical location may overlook the complex interplay of other factors such as social structures, religious beliefs, and political innovations.
• The idea that cost-effective transport was the main driver of trade growth and urban expansion may oversimplify the economic and social dynamics of ancient societies.
• The comparison between Assyria and Qin might be oversimplified, as each had unique administrative practices and cultural contexts that influenced their governance.
• The concept of Axial thought as a result of societal progress rather than a driving force could be debated, as intellectual movements often both influence and are influenced by societal changes.
• The dismissal of leaders revered as deities in favor of individual spiritual growth may not accurately reflect the continuity and transformation of religious practices across all societies.
• The claim that ancient writings from Eastern and Western origins share similarities in essence could be contested by scholars who emphasize the distinct philosophical and cultural contexts that shaped these texts.
• The narrative may understate the complexity and diversity within Eastern and Western societies by presenting them as more homogenous than they were in reality.
• The focus on the Mediterranean and the comparison between Assyria and Qin might marginalize the contributions and developments of other regions and civilizations during the same periods.

The rise and fall of ancient societies, the sustained dominance of Western countries, and the impact of these historical trends on interactions across Eastern and Western territories both in the past and looking ahead.

The narrative delves into the historical progression of societies in the East and West, culminating just before the onset of the Western Industrial Revolution, and scrutinizes the growth and decline of the Roman and Han empires, the rise to prominence of Eastern powers in the sixth century, and the reemergence of Western supremacy beginning in the sixteenth century. Morris suggests that the ongoing story hinges on the dynamic relationship between societal advancement and changing geographical factors, without ascribing inherent superiority to Western cultures.

The escalation of societal advancement fostered novel forms of mutual reliance and fresh obstacles.

Both the East and West underwent a period of prosperity marked by tranquility, efficient governance, and favorable weather patterns that greatly enhanced agricultural output during the two centuries that straddled the first century CE. In both centers of civilization, there was a burgeoning of trade networks and urban growth, leading intellectuals to contemplate the challenges associated with managing affluence. Morris posits that the substantial development of the West was a result of the gradual formation of a cohesive culture, drawing from the legacies of Greece and Rome, and spreading from Gibraltar to the Nile. Chinese cultural practices originated in the Yellow River valley and not only influenced Korea significantly but also extended to Japan and across the steppes to Bactria.

The final centuries before the start of the Common Era saw the first extensive spread of epidemic diseases throughout the Eurasian landmass.

By 200 CE, despite their apparent permanence and distinct cultural identities, both the empires of Han and Rome were confronting considerable challenges. Morris argues that the primary obstacle they encountered stemmed from the initial interactions among ancient civilizations. The divergence in social progress between the East and West was narrowed, partly because the Mongols consolidated the steppes, which in turn encouraged more trade and exploration, particularly in the East where improvements in maritime technology turned the Indian Ocean into a thriving trade route. Consequently, the merging of previously isolated pools of disease across Eurasia sparked a catastrophic outbreak that commenced in 160 AD, with deadly consequences that continued for the next two centuries. The East, which lagged behind the West in terms of advancement, still experienced the impact of the Plague, albeit to a lesser extent, but these events nonetheless contributed to the erosion of political stability and led to the collapse of the Han dynasty, which in turn allowed for the rise of regions under the control of nomadic military leaders. The area known for its heightened level of economic progress experienced more significant consequences due to the presence of numerous urban centers and extensive economic connections. The convergence of pandemics, a shift in climate conditions, and the collapse of the Roman Empire led to a prolonged downturn that lasted six centuries, during which Western societal progress regressed to a level significantly below its peak at the close of the first millennium.

During the era referred to as the Second Exchange, a significant shift of technological progress moved towards the west.

The East's quicker resurgence compared to the West can be partially credited to the rise of a new economic hub in southern China, and also, as Morris suggests, to a fresh era of widespread intercontinental connectivity and trade initiated by the Mongols' consolidation of the steppes around the period of 1200 to 1400. The unification of the steppes by the Mongols and the resulting increase in trade ultimately resulted in the most significant advantages for the West. European adventurers who came back from China introduced a plethora of products and ideas that significantly propelled European technological progress. However, the Mongol success in connecting the East and West inadvertently led to the spread of a devastating epidemic, known throughout Europe as the bubonic plague, which was subsequently referred to as the Great Pestilence. By 1400, the vast Mongol empire had disintegrated, the bubonic plague was wreaking havoc across Eurasia, and a new period of climatic change, referred to as the Little Ice Age, had begun. By the end of the fourteenth century, the difference in advancement between the Eastern and Western regions had nearly disappeared, echoing the circumstances of six centuries earlier during the First Old World Exchange when the East, as the foremost core area at the time, experienced the most significant effects.

The encapsulation of vast grassland regions profoundly changed the trajectory of human societal evolution, with repercussions that resonated globally.

In the 15th century, although there was a halt in societal advancement in Western Europe, the Eastern regions did not manage to reclaim their once-held status. Efforts by the Ming dynasty to extend their dominion into Central Asia unintentionally resulted in a fragile instability in the East.

The equilibrium of dominance shifted between empires and nomadic groups when the influx from the grasslands came to a halt and a new boundary surfaced.

In Western societies, the advent of revolutionary military advancements, particularly in firearms, allowed nations to achieve historically unparalleled victories over nomadic groups through the might of their empire. A new surge of political and economic expansion spread throughout the grasslands. Moscow, for instance, pushed east into Siberia, where Russia and China concluded a treaty at Nerchinsk dividing the steppe highway between them and formally ending the millennia-long threat of Mongol invasions. Theoretically, this could have enabled both nations to ascend higher on the Energy Hierarchy, but as the East progressed, reaching a social development index of forty-two circa 1500, nearly matching the zenith of social development seen in the Roman Empire during the first century CE, Chinese intellectuals started to withdraw from the expansive world which had frequently been a cause of distress.

The rise and spread of Western maritime empires, along with the integration of the Americas into the heart of Western civilization.

In the region known as the West, the very developments that obstructed terrestrial pathways simultaneously equipped sailors with innovative techniques for oceanic exploration. Upon initial observation, the outcomes appeared to be of lesser significance. Prince Henry of Portugal, commonly known as "the Navigator," financed voyages that navigated along the African coastline mainly to acquire slaves and sugar rather than to create colonial territories; meanwhile, Christopher Columbus, upon his unintended arrival in the Americas, mistakenly thought he had arrived in China, not realizing it was an entirely new continent. The potential, however, is immense. Europeans initially regarded America simply as a barrier en route to Asia, but this perspective shifted as they recognized an untapped expanse rich in environmental prospects, which gave rise to the development of a worldwide market known by scholars as "the Atlantic Economy."

The ascendancy of the West commenced with the onset of the Industrial Revolution.

The choice made by Chinese Emperor Zhengtong to cease further voyages into the Indian Ocean arguably had a more profound influence on the fifteenth century than the voyages of Columbus and da Gama. His rationale for this choice is unclear, but it symbolized the widening gap between the East's commitment to long-established customs and the West's emerging environment that nurtured innovation, leading to the exploration of new ideas, the unveiling of unknown lands, and the venture into markets that had not been explored before.

The utilization of fossil fuels transformed the approach to obtaining energy, breaking through past constraints that impeded advancement.

After Columbus and Zheng He made their pivotal choices, Western civilizations sustained a marginal lead in societal development, comparable to a two-point advantage on the scale, as the rise of the Atlantic economy provided these societies with new situations to navigate and resolve. As England's population and production expanded, new industries surfaced, and to counteract the escalating expenses of traditional energy forms such as wood and charcoal, the nation's pioneers—reaping exceptional profits, participating in exceptionally liberal markets, and capitalizing on the swift progress of the scientific revolution—devised new techniques to exploit energy from fossil fuels. The result was a transformation in the method of energy utilization.

The broad distribution of market systems and the accompanying organizational frameworks characteristic of Western societies.

The industrial revolution in the West harnessed the energy of fossil fuels and significantly transformed the way society functioned, particularly by increasing the prominence of market forces over state regulation. Western advancements in society broke through previous limitations, resulting in a greater involvement of China and Japan within the expanding worldwide market that Western nations predominantly controlled. Nations in the West were motivated to abolish slavery, progressively extend voting rights to all adults regardless of gender, and guarantee broad access to education. The established elite in the East continued to consolidate their control, thereby exacerbating the contrast between the increasingly democratic West and the East's tendency to favor non-democratic, authoritarian governance—until economic development demands set the East on a course towards modernization.

Other Perspectives

• The narrative may oversimplify the complex factors that led to societal advancement, as mutual reliance and obstacles are not the only drivers of historical change.
• The impact of epidemic diseases on empires is multifaceted, and attributing the fall of empires primarily to disease overlooks other political, economic, and social factors.
• The Mongol influence on trade and exploration is significant, but it is not the sole reason for technological progress or societal changes in the East and West.
• The assertion that the Plague outbreak led to the collapse of the Han and Roman empires may not fully account for the internal decay and external pressures these empires faced.
• The idea of a Second Exchange privileging the West might ignore the concurrent developments in the East that did not directly contribute to Western technological progress.
• The halt in Western societal advancement in the 15th century could be seen as a period of consolidation and reorientation rather than a complete cessation of progress.
• Military advancements in Western societies were crucial, but the role of diplomacy, trade, and cultural exchange in achieving dominance over nomadic groups should also be considered.
• The integration of the Americas into Western civilization had profound and often devastating effects on indigenous populations, which is a critical aspect of this historical narrative.
• The ascendancy of the West with the Industrial Revolution might downplay the contributions and innovations from other parts of the world that influenced Western development.
• The transformation in energy acquisition methods due to fossil fuels is a critical point, but the environmental and social costs of this transition are also important considerations.
• The expansion of market systems and organizational frameworks in Western societies may not fully account for the diversity of economic practices and institutions that existed globally.
• The advancements in the West leading to the abolition of slavery and extension of voting rights were significant, but they were also the result of complex social struggles and not solely the product of economic development.
• The characterization of the East as favoring non-democratic, authoritarian governance could be seen as a generalization that does not reflect the diversity of governance practices across Eastern societies.
• The push towards modernization in the East being driven by economic demands may not fully recognize the role of indigenous movements, cultural factors, and political ideologies in shaping modernization processes.

The book's primary argument explores the main forces propelling societal advancement, emphasizing the methods employed to evaluate and differentiate the evolution of societies in different locations and times.

Using a quantitative measure to understand the progression of societies throughout history.

Morris assesses the progression of Eastern and Western societies by examining their abilities to harness power and effectively interact with their physical, economic, social, and intellectual environments in pursuit of their goals. He suggests that one can graphically represent the course of history by plotting the advancement of societies over time, thereby showing the development of different civilizations through various eras.

Identifying Useful and Measurable Traits

Morris devises a metric that evaluates four essential aspects: energy management, urbanization levels, information technology progress, and military strength, with a thorough assessment conducted to determine the level of development for each characteristic. To assess each trait, it's essential to choose a standard of measurement, such as the daily energy intake per person expressed in kilocalories or the population size of the largest city to assess urban development, along with other similar criteria. We must then identify the different types of applicable evidence from various time periods to evaluate each characteristic. As we delve deeper into the past, our knowledge becomes more reliant on discoveries from archaeological excavations and the sporadic historical documents available. The most difficult step involves devising a system that permits the evaluation of different outcomes. Morris's scales are traditionally calibrated starting at zero, signifying a complete lack of societal advancement, equivalent to lifelessness, and ascend to a maximum value for each attribute, which represents a quarter of the ultimate score possible, a standard attained by the contemporary West at the turn of the millennium, culminating in a top score of one thousand.

Developing a measurement system and carefully assigning significance to the information collected.

Morris acknowledges that employing different standards for each trait, considering a variety of evidence, and using diverse scales would lead to different results; he provides a detailed explanation for his selection criteria on his website. Nevertheless, he maintains that devising a dependable metric for gauging progress will certainly yield a chart of similar contour that traces historical development. Morris places a stronger emphasis on the general trends of transformation throughout history, while considering the variations between distinct areas. Morris underscores the importance by illustrating the differences in a straight-line measurement of scores across Eastern and Western regions, while also using a logarithmic scale to underscore the differing rates of score changes throughout various periods.

The Limitations of Quantitative Metrics: Understanding the Inadequacy of Social Progress Indicators in Reflecting the Full Context

Morris argues that although measures of societal progress are informative, they capture only a small portion of the wider story.

Understanding the implications of numerical data is enhanced by constructing a cohesive narrative.

Quantifying social development allows us to ask better questions, but the ultimate object of history is not to generate numbers but to tell stories. The hypothesis put forth by Morris posits that people, typically unaware of the outcomes of their behavior, pursue ease, increased advantages, and security, intertwining elements from the natural and social sciences, as well as the study of the planet's physical composition, to illustrate how evolutionary forces similarly influence the stories that historians craft.

The analysis must also take into account cultural factors, critical decisions, and unpredictable occurrences.

Morris illustrates through stories that with each step societies take in their progression, they inevitably face new obstacles, sparking a contest between creative solutions that propel progress forward and disruptive forces that have the potential to trigger a downfall. The trajectory of this rivalry is continually influenced by a society's geographical features, but it is not predestined, as small decisions, unexpected occurrences, and cultural inclinations can all shift the balance in favor of success or catastrophe.

The connection between enduring trends and immediate results

The social progress index offers a perspective that allows us to scrutinize not only the short span of modern history but also the vast expanse of time where the notions of "the West" and "the East" have been pivotal in scholarly discussions.

Merging both extensive and brief viewpoints offers distinct benefits.

Morris argues that his methodology avoids the common historical tendency to see history merely as a prelude to the present, which often leads to the imposition of modern perspectives on the importance of past events. By adopting a comprehensive historical perspective and scrutinizing contemporary happenings in detail, he posits that historians can gain a deeper insight into the elements that have influenced the trajectory of events and the possibilities of alternative outcomes.

Utilizing insights from history to inform our understanding of future developments.

Morris's approach to measuring the progress of societies, despite its simplicity, yields a significant outcome. Morris suggests that we are nearing a critical juncture where the paths of advancement from both Eastern and Western societies are converging, after a span of roughly two centuries during which Western areas maintained supremacy. Morris suggests that a close look at patterns from history, especially between the 1st and 11th centuries, shows that history doesn't simply repeat but often reflects earlier occurrences. Currently, the evolution of information and genetic technology is unfolding in a manner unprecedented in previous eras. Grasping the developments that will occur during the twenty-first century requires a foundation in historical trends that provide crucial context. Morris proposes that the future will develop in manners that have no historical precedent.

Other Perspectives

• The use of quantitative measures to assess societal progress may oversimplify complex social dynamics and cultural nuances that cannot be easily quantified.
• The selection of specific traits (energy management, urbanization, information technology progress, military strength) may reflect a bias towards factors that are more easily measurable or historically valued by Western societies.
• The reliance on archaeological and historical documents may introduce biases based on what has been preserved or deemed important by previous generations and may not represent the full spectrum of societal development.
• The calibration of scales starting at zero and ascending to a maximum value could be seen as arbitrary and may not accurately reflect the diverse ways in which societies can develop.
• The emphasis on general trends may overlook significant regional or cultural variations that do not fit into the broader narrative of societal advancement.
• The argument that the ultimate object of history is to tell stories might be contested by those who believe history should also strive for objective analysis and the uncovering of factual truths.
• The idea that people are typically unaware of the outcomes of their behavior and pursue ease, increased advantages, and security could be challenged by theories that emphasize conscious decision-making and agency in historical developments.
• The suggestion that small decisions and unpredictable occurrences can drastically alter the course of history might be countered by deterministic or structuralist views that see larger forces as the primary drivers of historical change.
• The methodology that avoids imposing modern perspectives on the importance of past events may still be subject to present-day biases, as the selection of what is considered important to measure reflects contemporary values.
• The notion that we are nearing a critical juncture where Eastern and Western paths of advancement are converging could be seen as an oversimplification of global dynamics, which may involve multiple centers of power and development.
• The idea that the future will develop in ways with no historical precedent may be challenged by those who believe that historical patterns tend to repeat or that past trends can provide insights into future developments.