PDF Summary:The Water Will Come, by Jeff Goodell

The rising level of the world's oceans poses an immense threat to coastal regions, cities, and nations. In The Water Will Come, Jeff Goodell explores the science behind this phenomenon, revealing how climate change fuels the disintegration of polar ice caps and the expansion of warming waters. As ancient stories foretell, the effects may soon become catastrophic—submerging entire communities, sparking mass relocations, wreaking economic havoc, disrupting military operations, overwhelming infrastructure, and permanently reshaping the world's coastlines.

The author contends that urgent action is required, from drastic emissions reductions to innovative engineering solutions and geoengineering projects. However, he also contends that political indifference, scientific uncertainty, and adaptation challenges may make such efforts insufficient. While potential approaches differ in viability and impact, the book suggests the rising seas will profoundly impact civilization in the coming decades.

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• Consider installing a green roof on your shed or garage. This involves layering soil and plants on top of a waterproof membrane, which can absorb rainfall, provide insulation, and support biodiversity. Even on a small scale, green roofs can contribute to reducing urban heat islands and managing rainwater effectively.
• Explore permeable paving options for your driveway or walkways. Permeable materials allow water to seep through and be absorbed into the ground, reducing runoff and mimicking the natural water cycle. This can be as simple as replacing a section of your traditional concrete or asphalt with gravel, permeable concrete, or specially designed pavers that allow water to pass through.

The well-being of society and individuals will be deeply impacted as increasing ocean waters lead to the vanishing of coastal towns and the degradation of cultural legacy.

This section explores the disastrous and far-reaching consequences of coastal areas being submerged as sea levels rise. Goodell argues that the repercussions go further than mere economic setbacks, encompassing the obliteration of heritage with cultural significance and the compulsory displacement of numerous people.

The compulsory displacement of communities and the destruction of their cultural legacy is tantamount to a form of "cultural genocide" for many island countries.

Jeff Goodell emphasizes the precarious predicament of the Marshall Islands, facing the potential loss of their cultural heritage and the threat of complete submersion due to escalating ocean levels. Jeff Goodell recounts his conversation with Tony de Brum, the ex-foreign minister of the Marshall Islands, who played a pivotal role in the climate discussions in Paris during 2015. De Brum, who personally witnessed the devastating impact of U.S. atomic trials in the Marshall Islands, warned that the obliteration of societies and forced relocation due to climate change might equate to "cultural genocide." Jeff Goodell highlights the peril of rising sea levels, which endangers the societal and financial foundations of nations, including the Marshall Islands, and also jeopardizes their unique cultural traditions, ways of living, and the core of their national identity.

Practical Tips

• Start a virtual book club focused on novels and memoirs from island nations. By reading and discussing literature that delves into the cultural heritage and the impact of displacement on these communities, you and your book club members can gain a deeper understanding and empathy for the affected cultures.
• Implement a personal carbon offset initiative by calculating your carbon footprint and investing in environmental projects that help reduce greenhouse gases. You can use online calculators to determine your impact and then contribute to reforestation or renewable energy projects, symbolically linking your efforts to the preservation of places like the Marshall Islands.
• You can amplify the voices of climate advocates by sharing their stories and achievements on social media. By doing this, you help raise awareness about their work and the importance of climate action. For example, if you come across an article or video featuring someone who has made a significant impact on climate policy or environmental protection, share it on your platforms with a personal note about why their work matters.
• Reduce your own environmental footprint to contribute to a healthier planet, as a small but meaningful gesture in response to the larger issue of environmental degradation caused by nuclear testing. Simple actions like reducing waste, conserving energy, and choosing sustainable products can collectively make a difference when practiced widely.
• You can support cultural preservation by purchasing art, music, and crafts from communities vulnerable to climate change. By doing so, you're directly contributing to the livelihood of these communities and helping to sustain their cultural practices. For example, if a community is known for its unique weaving techniques, buying their textiles can provide them with the resources to continue their craft and pass it on to future generations.
• Opt for a car-free day once a week to minimize your contribution to fossil fuel emissions. Transportation is a major source of carbon emissions, and by choosing to walk, bike, or use public transportation, you're helping to reduce the carbon footprint. Plan your week so that errands, work, and other activities on your car-free day are accessible without driving, and enjoy the added health benefits of increased physical activity.
• You can document and share stories of affected communities by creating a digital archive. Start by interviewing people from areas impacted by rising sea levels, recording their narratives, and collecting photographs or artifacts that represent their cultural traditions. Then, use free website builders to create an online repository where these stories and images are accessible to a wider audience, ensuring their preservation and raising awareness.

There are concerns about an increase in climate refugees and the lack of legal protections for them

Goodell underscores the looming emergency, highlighting that the anticipated impacts of climate change will necessitate a substantial migration, compelling numerous people to abandon their coastal homes soon. He emphasizes the lack of sufficient legal structures to protect people compelled to relocate due to disruptions linked to climatic changes, pointing out that existing refugee policies do not address the requirements of these newly displaced groups. He offers a crucial decision for humanity: significantly cut down on emissions to lessen the impact of escalating ocean levels, offer support to those who must move because of climate change, or turn to conflict and isolation.

Other Perspectives

• Adaptation strategies, such as building sea walls or creating better flood defenses, could lessen the immediate need for migration from coastal areas.
• International organizations and regional bodies are actively engaged in discussions about how to protect people displaced by environmental changes, indicating that while a comprehensive legal structure may be lacking, efforts are underway to address the issue.
• Some countries or regions may have begun updating or expanding their refugee policies to include protections for individuals displaced by environmental factors.
• Conflict and isolation are not the only possible outcomes of failing to address climate migration; there could be other consequences such as increased economic strain, social tension, or international efforts to develop new legal frameworks.

The escalation of ocean levels poses significant threats to the economic equilibrium, essential services, and national security.

This part of the book explores the intricate challenges that arise due to the rising sea levels, encompassing economic fallout, effects on infrastructure, and concerns regarding the safety of nations. The author Jeff Goodell argues that rising sea levels pose a threat not only to the environment but also to the very foundation of modern society.

The escalating ocean waters present a considerable risk to worldwide military bases and assets due to the inundation of coastal areas.

The continual elevation of ocean levels presents escalating threats to critical military bases around the world. Goodell emphasizes the increased risk faced by many bases situated on coastlines, as their locations make them particularly susceptible to the destructive impacts of storm surges and the steady erosion of coastal land. The relocation or alteration of these bases presents governments with substantial logistical and fiscal challenges.

Many critical military bases within the United States are located in coastal regions vulnerable to danger.

Goodell examines the vulnerability of American military facilities, highlighting that Naval Station Norfolk serves as a prime example of the world's largest naval base. He elucidates that the interplay of sinking land and rising sea levels is causing more frequent floods, posing a risk to the functionality of the military base and raising questions about its continued usefulness. He also examines the vulnerability of additional US military locations, including Langley Air Force Base and facilities within the Marshall Islands, highlighting the widespread scope of the risk.

Practical Tips

• Support local businesses and initiatives that focus on coastal preservation and sustainability. By choosing to spend your money on services and products that contribute to the health of coastal regions, you're playing a part in maintaining the natural barriers that protect inland areas, including military installations.
• Foster an appreciation for naval history and technology by visiting maritime museums or retired ships open to the public. This can provide a tangible connection to the scale and complexity of operations at a place like Naval Station Norfolk. You might find exhibits on naval warfare, ship design, or the evolution of naval strategy that offer insights into the workings of the world's largest naval base.
• Consider volunteering with local environmental groups that focus on shoreline clean-up and restoration. By participating in these activities, you contribute to the health of natural barriers that can help mitigate flooding. This hands-on approach not only aids in flood prevention but also increases your understanding of the local ecosystem and the challenges it faces due to climate change.
• Create a personal evacuation plan that includes safe routes away from flood zones. Start by identifying high ground near your home and planning multiple evacuation routes to reach it. Practice this plan with all members of your household to ensure everyone knows what to do in the event of a flood.
• Start a conversation with your local representatives about the importance of climate resilience in military and civilian infrastructure. Write emails or letters expressing your concern and suggesting that they prioritize funding for upgrades and flood prevention measures in the budget.
• You can assess your own home's vulnerability to climate change by using online tools like the FEMA Flood Map Service Center to understand potential flood risks. By entering your address, you'll see if your home is in a flood zone, which can prompt you to consider flood insurance or home modifications like sump pumps or elevated foundations.
• Start a personal zero-waste challenge where you aim to minimize your waste production to one jar per month, which helps in reducing the amount of waste that can contribute to climate change. This involves being mindful of packaging when shopping, reusing materials, composting organic waste, and finding creative ways to repurpose items instead of discarding them.

Changing Arctic conditions due to melting ice create new national security risks and operational challenges

Goodell explores how the rapidly changing Arctic landscape, driven by melting sea ice, is creating new geopolitical tensions and national security risks. He explains that the newfound accessibility of resources has escalated military interest from nations such as Russia and China, whereas America has not kept pace in advancing its Arctic defense strategies. Goodell argues that the global strategic landscape's alteration due to climate change requires countries to reevaluate their national security priorities.

Other Perspectives

• The focus on national security risks might detract from the urgent need to address the underlying issue of climate change, which is the root cause of the melting ice.
• The changing Arctic conditions may not necessarily lead to new geopolitical tensions; instead, they could foster international cooperation for sustainable development and joint management of resources.
• The framing of the situation as a security risk assumes a zero-sum game, whereas it could also be seen as an opportunity for multilateral engagement and the establishment of new international norms and agreements in response to the changing environment.
• The perception of America lagging could be due to the classification of defense strategies and operations, which may not be fully disclosed to the public for national security reasons.
• Climate change is not the only factor altering the global strategic landscape; technological advancements, economic shifts, and political changes also play significant roles.
• The effectiveness of national security measures is not solely dependent on rapid changes or shifts in priorities but also on the ability to adapt existing strategies to new challenges, which could mitigate the need for a complete reassessment.

Many buildings along the coast were not designed to withstand the escalating heights of the oceans and the intensified ferocity of storm-driven waves.

The rising sea levels pose a significant threat to modern civilization, especially considering the vital infrastructure situated along global coastlines. Goodell argues that our current infrastructure, including transportation systems, power networks, water purification facilities, and communication systems, often lacks the necessary robustness to cope with the intensifying threats posed by rising water levels. Significant financial commitment and meticulous strategizing are essential to enhance or move this infrastructure.

The vulnerability of cities by the sea extends to their outdated buildings, transportation systems, water supply networks, and power distribution infrastructures.

Goodell explores the difficulties that urban infrastructure encounters due to its proximity to the coast, where it must contend with regular flooding and the intense waves driven by storms. He underscores the vulnerability of critical transportation infrastructures, with a specific focus on New York City's underground rail system. Seawater penetration into deteriorating tunnels, he clarifies, may result in the deterioration and harm to electrical components, thereby interrupting crucial transport links. The condition is worsened by the crumbling infrastructure in locations like Miami. In some instances, buildings were erected using seawater in the concrete mixture, accelerating their decay and corrosion.

Context

• Many coastal cities are densely populated, which increases the demand on infrastructure systems and complicates efforts to modernize or replace them.
• Coastal ecosystems, such as wetlands and mangroves, which can provide natural protection against flooding, have often been degraded or removed due to urban development.
• Disruptions in the subway system can have significant economic impacts, as millions of commuters rely on it daily. Prolonged outages can affect businesses, tourism, and the overall economy of the city.
• In some coastal areas, especially in the mid-20th century, using seawater in concrete was a common practice due to the lack of fresh water or cost-saving measures, not fully understanding the long-term effects.
• Miami's infrastructure challenges are compounded by its rapid urban development, which often outpaces the implementation of resilient building practices.

The restoration or safeguarding of this infrastructure necessitates substantial investment from the public sector.

The swelling of the seas necessitates substantial monetary investments to improve and rebuild vulnerable infrastructures. Goodell cautions that such financial commitments, which frequently amount to sums in the billions or even trillions, will put pressure on government finances and necessitate that political figures give precedence to mitigation strategies over other fiscal objectives.

Practical Tips

• Encourage local businesses to adopt a "round-up for infrastructure" program at checkout, where customers can opt to round up their purchase to the nearest dollar with the difference going to a fund for public infrastructure. This creates a community-driven funding pool that can support local infrastructure projects, fostering a sense of collective investment and responsibility.
• Consider adjusting your investment portfolio to include companies that specialize in creating innovative solutions for flood mitigation. This way, you're directly contributing to the development of new technologies and infrastructure improvements that can help combat the effects of rising sea levels. Look for investment funds or stocks that focus on green technology, sustainable infrastructure, or water management systems.
• You can explore micro-investing in infrastructure projects by using platforms that allow for small-scale investments in local or global infrastructure initiatives. This way, you get a hands-on understanding of the financial commitments involved without needing vast capital. For example, if a new solar farm is being built, you might be able to invest a small amount and follow the project's progress, giving you insight into the costs and processes.
• Consider volunteering for fiscal watchdog groups or citizen budget committees to gain insight into how government finances are managed. These groups often need volunteers to help analyze budget proposals, track spending, and advocate for fiscal responsibility. By participating, you'll learn about the intricacies of government finance and contribute to ensuring that investments are made wisely and sustainably.
• Use social media to raise awareness about the importance of mitigation strategies in political agendas. Create informative posts that explain how mitigation can lead to long-term fiscal stability and share articles or studies that support this viewpoint. By doing so, you can educate your network and potentially influence public opinion, which can indirectly pressure political figures to prioritize mitigation.

The economic consequences stemming from the ascent of sea levels might wreak havoc, especially on vulnerable populations and smaller island nations.

Jeff Goodell emphasizes the considerable threat posed by rising sea levels, which impacts both the stability of ecosystems and the global economy. The author warns that the economic consequences of rising sea levels, with the potential to significantly damage properties, interrupt key industries, and impair critical infrastructure, could be considerable, especially for disadvantaged communities and countries with limited resources.

The financial repercussions for coastal properties and infrastructure globally could amount to several trillion dollars.

Goodell presents a grim assessment of the expected economic consequences stemming from escalating sea levels, drawing his conclusions from the analysis conducted by the Risky Business Project and other research. The potential inundation of assets and infrastructure along the coastlines, worth trillions of dollars, could profoundly affect local communities, commercial entities, and the worldwide economic system.

Context

• Governments and communities may need to invest heavily in sea defenses, such as levees and seawalls, or in managed retreat strategies, which can be economically burdensome.
• The insurance industry faces increased claims, leading to higher premiums or withdrawal from high-risk areas, while real estate values in these regions may plummet.
• Critical infrastructure such as roads, bridges, and utilities may suffer damage or require relocation, leading to substantial repair and adaptation costs for governments and taxpayers.

The rise in sea levels has the potential to exacerbate existing social and economic inequalities.

Goodell emphasizes the disproportionate impact of rising sea levels, highlighting the increased challenges faced by communities and countries that are located on islands. He contends that the vulnerability of these communities is exacerbated by existing inequalities, such as limited access to resources and their marginalization in the political sphere, coupled with substandard infrastructure. The text emphasizes the necessity of creating equitable adaptation plans that prioritize the needs of the most vulnerable individuals.

Other Perspectives

• Some island nations have begun to implement innovative adaptation strategies, which may mitigate the disproportionate impact suggested, indicating that the level of impact can vary based on the actions taken by the community.
• The emphasis on vulnerability might inadvertently lead to a victim narrative that overshadows the potential for innovation and leadership within marginalized communities in addressing climate change challenges.
• Vulnerability is a complex issue that can be influenced by a multitude of factors beyond access to resources and political marginalization, such as cultural cohesion, social networks, and the ability to migrate or relocate.
• Focusing on infrastructure alone may lead to technocratic solutions that do not address underlying social and economic inequalities that contribute to vulnerability.
• There is a risk that adaptation plans could become politicized, with "equity" being used to justify actions that may have other underlying motivations.

Political, technological, and engineering initiatives are being activated to tackle the mounting challenge of increasing ocean heights.

In this section, Goodell explores a variety of political, technological, and engineering strategies under consideration for addressing the challenges posed by rising sea levels. He critiques the lack of immediate action and the shortfall in political resolve to address this issue, while also highlighting potential remedies and creative strategies.

Political figures frequently minimize or completely ignore the impending threat posed by increasing ocean heights, showing a hesitance to acknowledge the urgency of the situation.

Goodell criticizes political leaders for their slow and inadequate response to the growing threat posed by increasing ocean heights. He argues that the absence of a far-sighted political strategy, compounded by the denial of climate change, has impeded the creation of effective adaptation measures. The postponement, he cautions, is escalating the potential consequences and financial implications of impending effects.

Certain politicians downplay the importance of scientific research and hinder discussions regarding the impacts of climate change.

Goodell highlights how politicians often downplay the truth about climate change and keep crucial details from the public, underlining their reluctance to acknowledge the scientific consensus on the rising sea levels. He depicts certain political figures taking extreme measures to conceal or manipulate scientific data, thereby obstructing the advancement of policies aimed at adapting to new challenges.

Other Perspectives

• It could be argued that the focus should be on innovation and technological development to address climate change rather than on the research that highlights the problem without offering practical solutions.
• There is a perspective that emphasizes personal responsibility and market-driven solutions over governmental intervention, suggesting that innovation and consumer choice are more effective than regulatory approaches in addressing environmental issues.
• Politicians may withhold information about climate change not out of malice or denial, but due to concerns about causing public panic or because they believe the data is not conclusive enough to warrant dissemination.
• There are instances where politicians believe that adaptation strategies should take precedence over mitigation, focusing on how to live with rising sea levels rather than trying to prevent them.
• There may be instances where data is withheld not with the intent to deceive, but to prevent public panic or misunderstanding before the information is fully vetted or contextualized.
• Politicians may prioritize immediate and local constituent concerns over long-term and global issues, which can sometimes appear as obstruction to broader policy advancements.

Efforts to adapt have been hindered by a lack of political will and a tendency to prioritize short-term issues.

Goodell contends that the absence of resolute political determination has hindered the implementation of extensive, enduring strategies for adaptation. He suggests that short-term political calculations, often focused on electoral cycles or economic concerns, take precedence over the urgent need for proactive planning. This absence of foresight, he cautions, will surely result in rising expenses and disturbances as we progress.

Context

• This involves anticipating future challenges and implementing strategies to mitigate potential impacts before they occur, rather than reacting to problems as they arise.
• Politicians may avoid long-term projects due to the uncertainty and potential for failure, preferring to support initiatives with more predictable outcomes.
• Economic interests, such as those from powerful industries, can heavily influence political agendas, often sidelining environmental concerns in favor of economic growth.
• Rising temperatures and extreme weather events can exacerbate health issues, increasing healthcare costs and straining public health systems.

Creative design and construction approaches present possible solutions, yet they come with their own set of difficulties.

Goodell investigates creative strategies for adjusting to the rising sea levels. He discusses a variety of initiatives, from conventional coastal barriers to innovative concepts of amphibious urban areas, emphasizing the necessity for inventive and flexible strategies in response to our evolving environment.

Various proposals have been put forward to tackle the challenge of escalating sea levels, ranging from building protective barriers to conceptualizing cities that either float or are elevated to surpass anticipated water levels.

Goodell explores a range of design and structural strategies intended to mitigate the effects of rising sea levels. He explores traditional approaches like constructing defenses to hold back the ocean's encroachment and elevating crucial infrastructure, in addition to examining forward-thinking ideas like creating floating urban spaces, referencing Eko Atlantic in Nigeria and areas in the Netherlands made for water-based leisure activities.

Practical Tips

• Opt for products made from recycled materials that mimic the properties of traditional sea barriers. For example, choose garden borders or outdoor furniture made from recycled plastics that are often used in constructing synthetic levees and barriers. This supports the market for recycled materials and encourages the development of alternative uses that contribute to environmental protection efforts.
• Engage with local community boards or online forums to discuss the potential of floating urban spaces in your area. Share insights on how these concepts could address specific local challenges such as flooding, space scarcity, or urban heat islands, and gather feedback from community members.

The feasibility, cost, and environmental impacts of these solutions are highly uncertain

Goodell emphasizes that many suggested solutions are still at an early stage, and their effectiveness, cost-efficiency, and environmental impacts remain to be assessed. He cautions against viewing any single solution as a silver bullet, suggesting a need for careful evaluation and context-specific adaptation strategies.

Context

• Existing infrastructure may not be compatible with new solutions, requiring significant modifications or upgrades. This can add complexity and cost to the implementation process.
• Unexpected challenges, such as technical failures or environmental impacts, can lead to increased costs over time.
• Environmental impacts are also influenced by regulatory frameworks and policies, which can vary widely between regions and affect how solutions are implemented and monitored.
• Early-stage solutions often require substantial investment and funding, which can be uncertain or difficult to secure, especially for unproven technologies.
• Solutions need to be assessed not only for immediate effectiveness but also for their long-term sustainability and potential unintended consequences.
• Government policies and regulations can impact the cost-efficiency of solutions by providing incentives, subsidies, or imposing costs through taxes and compliance requirements.
• Many solutions require substantial natural resources, such as water, minerals, or land, which could lead to resource depletion or conflicts over resource allocation.
• Many proposed solutions, like carbon capture and storage or geoengineering, are still in developmental stages and may not be scalable or effective enough to address global issues comprehensively.
• Effective evaluation relies on robust data collection and monitoring systems to track the performance and impacts of solutions over time.
• The presence of unique species and ecosystems can dictate which strategies are suitable, as some solutions might harm local biodiversity or disrupt ecosystem services.

Our understanding and response to the increasing ocean levels could be improved with the help of scientific and technological progress.

Goodell underscores the necessity of utilizing technological progress and scientific research to better understand and develop more effective approaches to cope with the increasing ocean heights. He emphasizes the critical need for ongoing progress and investment in scientific studies to improve our predictions of looming threats and to develop innovative strategies to tackle them.

Continued advancements in the simulation of climate patterns, improved satellite monitoring, and meticulous analysis of data are crucial.

Goodell advocates for the continuous advancement of technologies that improve satellite monitoring, data analysis, and the modeling of climatic trends. He argues that improving the accuracy of predictions for rising ocean waters, especially in certain areas, is essential for strategic planning and the effective allocation of resources. This involves developing models that incorporate complex factors, including the dynamics of ice formations and the effects of gravitational forces, as well as the thermal expansion of water.

Context

• Businesses and governments can use climate simulations to assess risks and opportunities, aiding in long-term economic planning and investment decisions.
• Unlike ground-based measurements, satellites offer global coverage, allowing scientists to monitor remote and inaccessible regions, such as the polar ice caps, which are crucial for understanding global sea level rise.
• Advanced data analysis can integrate with other technologies, such as AI and machine learning, to enhance predictive models and improve decision-making processes.
• Developing these models requires collaboration across scientific disciplines and technological fields, including oceanography, meteorology, and geophysics, to enhance predictive capabilities.

Geoengineering approaches like solar radiation management are controversial but may become necessary

Goodell explores the controversial topic of intentional, significant alterations to the planetary climate, highlighting the use of solar radiation management as an extreme strategy to counteract rising temperatures and the polar ice melt. He is aware of the risks and complex ethical issues associated with these actions, but he suggests that if reducing emissions is not enough, geoengineering could become a crucial tactic to mitigate the harshest impacts associated with the changing climate of Earth.

Practical Tips

• Start a conversation with friends or family about the ethics of climate intervention by using hypothetical scenarios. This can be as simple as asking, "If we had the technology to control the weather, should we use it, and who gets to decide?" These discussions can help you explore the complexities of geoengineering without needing expert knowledge, and they can also raise awareness among your peers.
• Enhance your critical thinking on geoengineering risks by creating a risk assessment game. Use cards or a digital tool to simulate different geoengineering scenarios, assigning potential risks and benefits to each. This game could involve drawing a scenario card, such as "releasing aerosols into the atmosphere to reflect sunlight," and then drawing risk and benefit cards to weigh the outcomes. This helps you visualize the complexities and trade-offs in a tangible way.
• You can support research in geoengineering by donating to organizations that fund innovative climate solutions. By contributing financially, even in small amounts, to non-profits or research institutions that are exploring geoengineering, you help advance the science behind it. For example, find a university or a private research group that is working on carbon capture technology and make a monthly donation.