PDF Summary:The End of the World Is Just the Beginning, by Peter Zeihan

According to Peter Zeihan, the most pressing threat to civilization is the impending collapse of international trade. In The End of the World Is Just the Beginning, Zeihan predicts that a demographic implosion will trigger a crisis in global trade that spells worldwide economic disaster, energy shortages, political turmoil, and famine. While there may be no way to avoid these looming problems, Zeihan writes that if we want to survive them, we have to be fully aware of what’s at stake.

Zeihan is a strategist and consultant known for his expertise in global affairs. In this guide, we’ll present Zeihan’s argument that our current prosperity is about to end, and what difficulties we can expect in the tumultuous decades to come. We’ll also examine the views of other experts as to whether current global trends confirm or contradict Zeihan’s predictions, as well as what solutions might mitigate the challenges Zeihan foresees.

(continued)...

As more people retire from the workforce, there are fewer young workers to replace them, and as the larger, older generation passes away, the precipitous population drop that follows will come as an economic blow to the system. Zeihan argues that China in particular is at the highest risk for a demographic implosion due to its decades-long one-child-per-family policy, and when the Chinese workforce disappears, its economy will crack under the strain. Since China and other East Asian countries are vital to globalized manufacturing, the world will feel the brunt as the number of Asian workers decreases and the cost of their labor goes up

Fighting the Baby Bust

One of the assumptions behind Zeihan’s predictions is that countries won’t act to prevent demographic problems until it’s too late, but some nations are already taking steps to mitigate the effects of falling birth rates. These include providing financial incentives for having children, such as paid parental leave, job protection, and childcare support for people who want to have children while pursuing careers at the same time. Another approach is to encourage immigration as a way to maintain a stable workforce, while also encouraging older adults to put off retirement until later in life.

China, in an attempt to undo the effects of its strict population control policies, revised its laws in 2021 to let families have up to three children, along with measures aimed at reducing the financial burden of raising them. However, the new policy has still been criticized by human rights groups as a violation of women’s autonomy. Despite the new policy, China’s birth rate is still in decline, since many Chinese women see having a family as an impediment to having a career—a change in priorities that Zeihan describes as a natural consequence of urbanization in a global economy.

.

Zeihan says that only a few countries, including the US, have industrialized and urbanized without seeing a drop in population. While the US will feel a demographic shock as the Baby Boomers (born 1946-1964) retire, the Millennial generation (born 1981-1996) is large enough to potentially carry the country through the 2040s. However, other countries face population reductions that may prove lethal to their economies. In tandem with the workforce reduction, people who retire draw their money out of investments, which decreases the economy's credit supply, making it harder to fund new enterprises. Moreover, a shrinking labor force also means a smaller tax base, leaving governments strapped for cash to spend on public services.

(Shortform note: In the US, the effects Zeihan predicts are already appearing in the form of labor shortages driving up wages as employers compete for a smaller pool of workers. Though this may sound good for younger workers, higher pay can also drive inflation, negating the positive effects of a competitive job marketplace. Meanwhile, the recent wave of Baby Boomers to retire are doing so with less money in the bank than previous generations, partly due to how the Great Recession of 2008 impacted their savings and working income. Even if Zeihan is correct that the US’s Millennials can shore up the economy, their own retirement prospects may be grim.)

A Planet Divided

As the world’s population and economy shrinks, the delicate balance of globalized trade will start to come apart at the seams. Zeihan warns that if the US stops protecting international shipping, then vital trade routes will be vulnerable to local wars and international piracy. Transporting goods will be hazardous again, and the reliable flow of trade between countries could suddenly come to a halt. Zeihan writes that the US is already pulling out of its protective role because the lack of a military threat (such as the Soviet Union posed) and the US’s newfound energy independence make continuing its post-World War II strategies harder to justify internally. However, its policing role is one that no other country is poised to take on.

Because of this, vital shipping lanes throughout the world could become bottlenecks that throttle international trade and production. Zeihan cites East Asia in particular as a significant danger zone—the seas there are some of the world’s busiest shipping corridors, providing crucial links in manufacturing chains, but many East Asian countries are openly hostile to each other. Any outbreak of violence in the region could lead to disaster for all.

Contemporary Threats to Global Shipping

Zeihan highlights the Persian Gulf and the seas of East Asia as potential danger zones, but at the time of this writing, the chief trade route under threat is through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, due to the nearby conflict between Israel and Hamas. Two dozen countries, led by the US, formed a coalition to safeguard shipping in the region, under the aegis of Operation Prosperity Guardian. Nevertheless, many shipping companies have elected to reroute their ships around the southern tip of Africa. Meanwhile, on the other side of the world, traffic through the Panama Canal has been slowed since 2023 due to a drought that reduced the amount of water available to move cargo ships through the canal’s giant locks.

At the same time, as Zeihan predicts, the US is struggling to maintain its role as the protector of global shipping. Its navy has shrunk from nearly 7,000 ships at the end of World War II to less than 300 today, straining its capacity to respond to multiple threats at a time when shipping is threatened in various regions. The US defense industry is hard-pressed to meet the demand for equipment, which—like everything else in a globalized world—relies on international supply chains. The situation is exacerbated by the US military’s recruitment problems, which may be further impacted by future demographic changes.

No More World Order

If global trade retracts, the world is likely to break apart into regional economies where every commodity is lower in quality and more expensive than it was during globalization. Zeihan speculates that there may even be a return to old-style imperialism, in which stronger countries take over weaker ones to use as sources of goods and cheap labor. However, this approach may prove unworkable in the modern age due to the fact that with declining populations, wealthier countries won’t have enough young people to maintain a conquering army. What Zeihan finds more likely is that powerful countries will set up regional protectorates to safeguard access to the resources they need.

However, as globalization unravels, the countries most dependent on imports and exports will take military action to secure their shipping lanes, which will likely involve measures against their regional rivals. Manufacturing chains will have to become much tighter and more localized than they are today. Zeihan predicts that piracy will resurge, sometimes by criminals, but often by nations desperate to access resources to survive. If that happens, then long-haul, heavy transport may die out, replaced by smaller, local transport vessels designed to outrun potential enemies. Countries with internal waterways, like the US, will fare better than those that are completely reliant on oceanic shipping routes.

(Shortform note: Modern-day piracy is a serious enough problem that maritime agencies provide regular updates on incidents and danger zones. In particular, piracy remains a constant threat near the coast of Somalia and in the South China Sea, both of which target high-trade regions that Zeihan highlights as being particularly important to global supply chains. Though as of this writing, there have been no modern reports of state-sponsored piracy, naval powers such as the US have boarded ships and seized cargo they deemed to be in violation of international law. A potential danger that Zeihan doesn’t mention is that of corporate-sponsored piracy, such as in 1990 when a company in Singapore was accused of hijacking several ocean-going vessels.)

Is the World Really Breaking Apart?

While there are some signs of the increasing regionalization Zeihan predicts, it’s too soon to determine if the trend will continue. However, there are several signs pointing to growing economic divergence between nations, such as increasing trade barriers, widening gaps in economic growth between regions, and a growing push for technological independence between major powers, such as the US and China. Most dangerous of all, geopolitical tensions in critical regions like Eastern Europe and the Middle East could—as Zeihan warns—break global supply chains and energy markets, forcing an emphasis on more regional economic cooperation.

However, it's important to note that the global economy remains highly interconnected. Despite the aforementioned challenges, the global economy continues to grow, with GDP growth accelerating in some regions. Institutions such as the International Money Fund (IMF) continue to emphasize the importance of international cooperation in addressing economic challenges—after all, inflation and climate change affect everyone and will require a united global effort to solve. Therefore, while there are some concerning trends toward regional fragmentation, the world economy isn’t breaking apart—yet. Instead, we're seeing a complex interplay of global integration and regional divergence.

Thirsty for Oil

While every commodity will be affected by restrictions on international shipping, those restrictions will compound themselves by limiting access to the resource that makes global transportation possible—oil. If international shipping falls apart, oil production will be drastically reduced, triggering an energy crisis.

The world's dependence on oil for shipping means that any slight change in supply and demand can have dramatic effects on the cost of other goods. Zeihan anticipates a return to regional oil distribution markets similar to those of the imperial trading networks pre-globalization. Oil supplies will be restricted to whomever oil producers can safely ship it to. The US and Russia, with their internal oil fields, will be the least affected, but most of the world will suffer a severe energy crunch every time its oil deliveries are endangered. Since the US has enough oil for itself at home, it can no longer always be expected to protect the oil trade abroad.

(Shortform note: The global oil market is already experiencing fragmentation due to the EU and US bans on Russian oil imports, which went into effect just as Zeihan’s book was being published. The removal of so much oil from the global market caused prices to soar and started a major restructuring of the oil trade. In particular, this shift has made Europe more reliant on the US for energy and security. Meanwhile, there are reports that EU countries continue to purchase oil from Russia second-hand through Turkish oil distributors, demonstrating that the pressures to keep the oil market globalized are persistent.)

Zeihan reminds us that fossil fuels like oil aren’t just used for transportation—natural gas generates electricity, and petrochemicals are the basis for many material goods, including medical supplies. Although "green" solutions are often proposed, they’re only available in countries with the right geography and climate. Renewable energy generation requires a lot of space and special conditions, and the cost for retooling our entire infrastructure to adapt to renewables is staggering. Renewable energy and substitutes for petrochemicals simply aren’t ready to replace fossil fuels at the scale we need, and the world will feel the coming oil shortages long before we have a viable substitute.

The Nuclear Option

It might be that the most viable answer to Zeihan’s energy problem isn’t “green” at all. In Apocalypse Never, Michael Shellenberger argues in favor of nuclear power as a fossil fuel alternative. The amount of nuclear fuel required to generate power is tiny next to how much fuel coal and gas plants burn, and while safety and construction costs have been an issue with older nuclear plants, modern designs are less costly, far safer, and last longer than those built decades ago. Also, unlike fossil fuel byproducts, nuclear waste isn’t released into the environment, but is disposed of in facilities designed to block the release of radiation.

There are several issues with implementing nuclear power at scale around the world, the first being its public perception. Shellenberger argues that since the 1960s, some environmental groups have deliberately conflated nuclear power with nuclear fallout to stop plants from being built on lands they want to conserve. Another issue is the sourcing of fissionable uranium, which is mined in Kazakhstan, Canada, and other countries, then enriched into usable fuel at a handful of sites in Russia, Germany, France, China, and the US—another global supply chain. The last consideration is one of time—nuclear plants are costly and time-consuming to build, and the world will need a substitute for oil before a deglobalization crisis hits.

A Hungrier World

Zeihan says that the most serious threat from globalization’s downfall is that people won't have enough food. The reason for the shortage will be simple—billions of people live thousands of miles from where their food is produced. Feeding them depends on cheap, reliable shipping, and if that fails, so does the food supply. Densely populated cities depend almost entirely on imported food, and if trade breaks down, they can’t feed themselves. One solution may be to move people back to the countryside to work on farms, but many places in the world can’t support enough agriculture to sustain their current population. Therefore, Zeihan predicts that breakdowns in food production will lead to mass starvation, death, and the fall of governments.

(Shortform note: Contrary to Zeihan’s assertions about the weaknesses of sourcing food through trade, others argue that our globalized food system increases countries’ resilience to agricultural disruptions. International trade in agriculture acts as a backstop against local breakdowns in food production, such as climate disasters that kill crops in some regions. Those areas will feel an economic impact, but global supply lines prevent total food shortages. The food network is also redundant—no food is produced in only one place, so no sector of the world’s food industry will be impacted at the same time. As long as food transportation remains unaffected—which Zeihan strongly questions—the overall system may hold firm.)

However, disruptions to international commerce won’t just stop food from being shipped—farm equipment manufacturers won’t be able to get their machinery to the countries that need it, and if farmers can't purchase equipment and keep it in working order, they can't produce food in the first place, with or without a means to ship it. Additionally, Zeihan points out that the technology doesn’t exist to run heavy-duty farm equipment on anything but oil, which—as we’ve already discussed—will also be in short supply. Moreover, oil is a key ingredient in the pesticides that industrial farms use to keep their crops insect-free.

(Shortform note: Shortages in farm equipment haven’t materialized as of this writing, but the cost of equipment is still a barrier in the developing world. Therefore, farmers in some countries are finding innovative ways to access equipment. For example, farmers in the Caribbean use a digital platform to connect them with tractor owners—sharing equipment in a way resembling ride sharing platforms like Uber or Lyft. In India and Africa, farmers make use of pay-per-use models or rental agreements, bundling services across their local agricultural networks. Sharing agricultural equipment through these models helps reduce cost, strengthens ties within communities, and acts as a safety net if new farm equipment becomes hard to import.)

On top of all this, there’s climate change to deal with. Zeihan writes that with changing climate patterns, regions with abundant water and sunlight will become even more productive than before, but dry regions will become even drier, killing any hope of turning them into farmland. In some regions, climate change will alter rainfall patterns, such as by reducing the impact of monsoons that India and Southeast Asia depend on. In places where rainfall increases, frequent flooding will become a problem. The farmlands of the American Midwest may benefit from climate change and increase their yield, but overall, Zeihan says that the regions that increase their food production won’t offset the loss of arable farmland elsewhere in the world.

(Shortform note: Though Zeihan suggests that some farming regions will benefit from climate change, current statistics show that the amount of usable farmland in the world is shrinking. Even the US has been losing almost 2 million acres of farmland per year to housing development, industrial pollution, and erosion due to weather. Even though demand for more farmland is increasing, so are the pressures for other ways to use it, such as for producing renewable energy. Since farmland is acquired by converting natural ecosystems for human use, there are also those who argue against expanding it further in the interest of environmental concerns—particularly to restore ecosystems that capture the carbon we emit into the air.)

The Shape of Things to Come

Though the problems coming our way may be unpleasant to think about, finding a way through them is even more difficult. Zeihan attempts to do so by focusing on the most basic needs that nations have to fulfill, including acquiring enough resources and food to keep people going through the lean times ahead.

Zeihan argues that of all the world’s countries, the US is uniquely positioned to weather the storms of deglobalization. The US has more high-quality farmland than any other country, which will serve it well in the trying times to come. Thanks to fracking technology that lets the US drill for shale oil, as well as an abundance of land that's ideal for solar and wind power, the US has lower energy prices than any other country. Moreover, thanks to the geographic barriers of two oceans and its strong economic ties with its only two neighbors (Canada and Mexico), the US is essentially invasion-proof against other rival states that may envy its resources.

(Shortform note: Even if Zeihan’s right that the US would do better during deglobalization than other countries, the US would still suffer in several ways. Moving the production of goods back to the States would increase manufacturing costs, since companies originally outsourced those jobs to reduce overall expenses. This shift would drive up prices for consumers and potentially jeopardize millions of American jobs. Closing US markets to foreign competition would also reduce incentives to innovate, further weakening the US’s ability to compete on the global stage. Additionally, as trade barriers rise, the US will find it harder to access foreign markets, limiting its economic growth that’s historically been driven by international trade.)

Extreme Resource Management

Zeihan writes that many of the assumptions the modern world rests on won’t apply any longer in the near future. Chief among these is the belief that vital resources can be imported from anywhere else in the world at little cost. In the future, countries will struggle to maintain their supply lines, with varying degrees of success, and while the US and its neighbors may be able to do so, other countries—particularly China—may find themselves in serious trouble.

In a deglobalized world, countries will have to find new ways to obtain and manage the resources they need. Those blessed with the right geography and climate may be able to fuel and feed themselves internally, while others might survive by using their highly skilled knowledge base to export expertise instead of physical goods. However, Zeihan insists that supply and manufacturing chains will have to be local. Some countries may lose their industrial base entirely, with potentially disastrous humanitarian consequences.

(Shortform note: Supply chain breakdowns already occur for a variety of reasons, and foreign policy experts are working on a multi-pronged approach to deal with them. Making supply chains local, as Zeihan suggests, can reduce dependence on imports, but experts believe that strategy should be targeted only at critical sectors, such as industries vital to public health. Meanwhile, digital tracking can help identify bottlenecks in global transportation, and enforcing antitrust policies can combat noncompetitive practices that make supply chain problems worse. While completely decoupling from global trade isn't feasible in many industries, diversifying supply chains and increasing local production can fortify industries against future disruptions.)

West Versus East

Zeihan suggests that the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) may prove to be the Western Hemisphere’s saving grace. In terms of food, manufacturing, and raw materials, the Americas (both North and South) can survive as a fairly self-contained system. Between them, the US and Mexico have an outstanding capacity for renewable energy generation, and their relatively stable demographics will soften the blow of the population plunge that Zeihan expects to shake the rest of the world. The key will be for the US, Mexico, and Canada to establish even stronger economic and demographic ties, while reestablishing the robust manufacturing base that the US let slide during the years of globalization.

(Shortform note: The US isn’t the only superpower that’s shoring up its economic supply lines. In Battlegrounds, McMaster describes the Chinese government’s One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative as an attempt to assert China’s economic dominance. OBOR funnels vast amounts of money into foreign infrastructure development, including ports and transportation improvements to tie other countries to Chinese imports and exports. According to McMaster, OBOR projects come with many strings attached, such as high interest rates, political concessions, and bribes paid to high-ranking officials. McMaster argues that One Belt One Road is a form of economic colonialism designed to elbow the US and its allies out of world markets.)

On the other hand, Zeihan firmly believes that China faces a catastrophic collapse. At present, China is financially overextended, is entirely reliant on globalized trade, and is about to go through a demographic meltdown. If globalized trade ceases to function, and China can't import enough energy, food, or manufacturing resources, its economic and industrial foundations will shatter, and its people will suffer. China’s downfall will cascade into major economic crises throughout the world, but it may also create opportunities for still-developing countries to establish themselves as centers of manufacturing and commerce.

(Shortform note: Several indicators point to a looming economic crisis in China, including two that Zeihan doesn’t mention—underemployment and real estate woes. As of this writing, China’s unemployment rate for young adults has risen to over 20%, with roughly half of college graduates returning home due to not being able to find jobs. At the same time, China's real estate sector, which makes up almost a quarter of the country's GDP, is struggling as major property developers have defaulted on over $100 billion in bonds. Local Chinese governments rely heavily on the real estate market as a source of funding, so a downturn in that industry could translate into greatly reduced public services for all.)

Feeding the World to Come

Sadly, manufacturing and economic worries may pale in comparison to the main danger that the end of globalization represents—that there might not be enough food to go around. Zeihan explores some options countries might take to secure enough food, though some of them aren’t pleasant, such as ceding control to wealthier nations or taking a giant leap back to the days of agrarian, subsistence farming.

As international trade unravels, how well countries can feed their people will determine how much chaos and human misery they’ll experience. According to Zeihan, only a handful of countries are capable of being completely self-supporting. Those that can't grow the food they need will either go hungry or risk becoming vassals to any agricultural superpower that’s able and willing to feed them. No matter what, too many populations have grown beyond what local agriculture can support, and in the worst-case scenario, billions of people will face famine and starvation. There’s hope in new technologies, including AI-based crop management, but Zeihan thinks it’s unlikely that massive agricultural breakthroughs will happen soon enough.

(Shortform note: The World Bank reports that even without a breakdown in food transportation, there’s a steady decrease in the availability of food in many countries, driven largely by steep inflation in food prices overall. The World Bank’s response targets financial aid and policy reform to make trade even easier and more affordable for food producers and distributors in struggling areas. Meanwhile, research into food self-sufficiency has focused on determining which countries are most able to meet their own food production needs, though even in countries such as the US that could be self-sufficient, there are regions in which hunger is endemic.)

Another option we mentioned earlier is to force people out of their cities and back to working on farms. Zeihan writes that the days of specialized agriculture will end, since countries will have to go back to the basic staples they need to feed their own people. While this may help some countries survive, they'll be much poorer than they are today because they won't be growing the cash crops that are profitable under globalization. Wealthier countries will feel the pinch in the form of fewer options in grocery stores, but for poor countries, the result will be a rollback to subsistence farming.

(Shortform note: While Zeihan’s outlook may come across as defeatist, not everyone believes worldwide famine is inevitable. In Apocalypse Never, Shellenberger agrees that small, local farms will never support the world’s current population levels, but he’s optimistic that bringing industrial farming techniques to the developing world will allow struggling countries to produce more food on less land. These practices would also curtail deforestation, which is currently practiced to create more land for less efficient farming practices.)

Finding the Future

If Zeihan’s forecasts for the future seem bleak, that’s because they are. The old rules of government, society, and trade will no longer work in the post-globalized era, and our transition into the future will be bumpy. Zeihan makes some guesses about what the post-globalized world will be like—countries and people will make do with less, old alliances will reshuffle, and new solutions to old problems will emerge.

As the world moves away from globalization, we’re about to enter a time of vast upheaval, and what political and economic realities may emerge once the turmoil is over remains uncertain. If the US holds its own, as Zeihan predicts, we can expect many people from all over the world to want to immigrate. Unfortunately, no matter which nations are best at adapting to the world’s new conditions, everyone will have to figure out how to get by using fewer resources. The world of the future will likely be defined by fractured alliances and lower standards of living, while national economies will simply have to cope with a smaller workforce than before.

(Shortform note: Zeihan’s future worst-case scenario presumes a precipitous population decline at some point over the next few decades due to regional wars, poverty, and famine resulting from economic catastrophes. Current population trends don’t reflect this, with the world’s population estimated to peak at over 10 billion by 2100, with Africa experiencing the fastest growth despite expected drops in fertility rates. Nevertheless, Europe and China are expected to see a drop in population by 2050 as older generational cohorts pass away. Until then, many countries will face the strain of an inverted population pyramid in which the middle-aged and elderly outnumber the young.)

However, Zeihan is hopeful that the pains of shifting to new world realities won't mean the end of civilization. While the 2020s and ’30s won't be pleasant, Zeihan believes that by the 2040s, we'll have achieved a new global equilibrium for agriculture and trade. Given the history of technological progress, he has no doubt that new solutions will arise to solve many of the oncoming problems, especially for energy generation and food production. Nevertheless, the inequalities between the countries that do well to survive and those that don't will be stark. Whatever happens, Zeihan says that our Golden Age of cheap trade and international interdependence will be over.

(Shortform note: In general, Zeihan downplays the potential for technology to cope with the problems he presents, but others are more optimistic. In The Future Is Faster Than You Think, Peter H. Diamandis and Steven Kotler explain that technological progress doesn’t merely advance—it accelerates as breakthroughs in different fields merge and complement each other, amplifying their power to reshape society. For instance, the agricultural industry is pioneering ways to feed a growing population by combining advances in resource efficiency, genetic engineering, and “vertical farming” within urban centers. If these and other advances keep pace with the challenges on our horizon, the future may not be as bleak as Zeihan fears.)