PDF Summary:The Avoidable War, by Kevin Rudd

Hostility between the US and China has been growing for over a decade, eroding the wary but pragmatic relationship of years past. Now, as tensions threaten to escalate, diplomat and politician Kevin Rudd argues that a full-blown military conflict can and should be averted.

Rudd claims that this tenuous relationship is unraveling due to a combination of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s strategies and priorities, the US’s reactions to China’s rise to global prominence, and deep mistrust and ideological differences on both sides.

In this guide, we’ll explain the complex factors contributing to hostility between the US and China and describe Rudd’s recommendation for how these two global powers can avoid full-on war—an outcome that would take a huge toll on the US and China as well as global stability. We’ll also provide updates and additional context on the historical events discussed, nuances underlying the foreign diplomacy trends, and counterarguments to some of Rudd’s points.

(continued)...

Rudd writes that Xi’s key priorities include keeping the CCP in power through strategic economic reforms, restoring Chinese territory, and increasing China’s global influence. In this section, we’ll describe each of these strategies in more detail as well as how they contribute to China’s power struggle with the US.

(Shortform note: In addition to economic stability, a political shift within China at the end of Deng’s term also contributed to Xi’s priorities. People had turned against Deng politically because of the Tiananmen Square incident in which many Chinese citizens were killed. In addition, despite China’s rapid economic growth, it had also started struggling with corrupt officials profiting from Deng’s financial policies. Because of these two factors, the CCP benefited politically from distancing themselves from Deng’s policies and ideology, leading to less liberal and more state-controlled economic policies.)

Clarifying China’s Political Labels

Several different terms are used in the book to describe Xi’s ideology as well as that of the CCP—for example, communism, Marxism-Leninism, socialism, and socialism with Chinese characteristics. Discrepancies in the language describing China’s government and economic system are partly due to various external interpretations of Chinese politics versus its self-identified labels. For example, one article describes China’s government as a multi-party cooperative system while another describes it as an authoritarian one-party system. Here, we’ll explain the differences between some of the key terms in the book and who uses them:

Communism: This is a political, economic, and social ideology promoting a classless economic system where all property is owned communally or by the state. While communism remains central to Chinese ideology, as evidenced by the ruling party’s name “Chinese Communist Party,” the CCP has adapted communist ideology in ways that are specific to China (explored more in the definition of socialism with Chinese characteristics).

Socialism: Socialism is a political and economic system where resources are controlled communally rather than through private ownership and commerce. In Marxist theory, it’s a transitional stage between capitalism and communism. The CCP self-identifies as having socialist values at its core. However, others argue that China’s system is more aptly defined as state capitalism—a hierarchical capitalist system guided by the central government.

Marxism-Leninism: This is a political and economic framework established by the German philosopher Karl Marx and elaborated on by Vladimir Lenin in the Soviet Union. The key aspect of Marxism-Leninism is a two-part revolution in which working-class wage laborers seize power by force and establish a one-party socialist state where the party controls the “means of production” (the land, equipment, and resources needed to make products). The second part of the revolution is transitioning from a socialist state into a classless, stateless communist society. Rudd refers to Xi as Marxist-Leninist, and the CCP mentions Marxism-Leninism as one of its guiding philosophies among others.

Nationalism: Nationalism is a sense of loyalty and devotion to a nation, often with a connotation of cultural superiority and the promotion of a country’s self-interests over others. This is another general term that Rudd uses to describe Xi’s ideology.

Marxist-Nationalist: This is Rudd’s term based on his analysis of Xi’s particular brand of communism. It means that Xi appeals to the CCP using Marxist-Leninist ideology, but he appeals to the general population of China more through nationalist rhetoric.

Socialism with Chinese characteristics: This term is used by Xi and the CCP itself and was first described by Deng in 1982. It combines China’s underlying socialist ideals with the practical need to allow some private ownership and enterprise to develop China’s economy and meet the material needs of its people in the short term. It combines state ownership and private ownership while retaining overarching control over private enterprise.

Authoritarian-capitalist: This is the term that Rudd uses essentially in place of “socialism with Chinese characteristics.” He defines it as a system where the government maintains control over the business sector and prioritizes state-owned enterprises over privately owned businesses. However, the word “authoritarian” also implies that the Chinese government limits individual freedom of thought and action—an argument supported by instances of violence and retaliation against political dissenters and wealthy private business owners.

Maintaining the CCP’s Power Through Economic Reform

According to Rudd, the core of Xi’s vision is retaining control over the CCP, keeping the CCP in power in China, and using Marxist-Leninist ideology to guide the country’s economic policies. Rudd says that because the CCP is rooted in Marxist-Leninist ideology, which prioritizes the economic well-being of the populace, economic prosperity for the Chinese people is Xi’s primary strategy for keeping himself and the CCP in power.

According to Rudd, the Chinese people will be content with the CCP as long as unemployment stays low, the standard of living continues to rise, and disparities of wealth stay low. If the economy falters, however, Xi and the CCP would face political backlash and risk losing power. Xi’s economic reforms—rooted in these driving forces—are referred to as the New Development Concept (NDC).

(Shortform note: Rudd’s analysis that the CCP has to keep the economy thriving to maintain political power also applies to US politics. Research shows that since the US’s inception, Americans consistently judge incumbent presidents in elections based on how well the economy is doing.)

Rudd writes that the NDC contributes to tensions with the US because it differs from American ideology about free market capitalism and because of its direct economic impact on the US. For example, the Marxist-nationalist NDC explicitly prioritizes broad economic prosperity and aims to prevent private companies from accumulating excessive individual wealth. Xi’s administration enforces this by seizing partial ownership of companies (meaning they become partially state-owned enterprises), cracking down on monopolies and corruption, and urging wealthy companies to donate to social causes.

(Shortform note: Some groups point out that while generosity and philanthropy have long been a part of China’s culture, the CCP’s suggestion that private companies donate to social causes is more like coercion since the companies may fear retaliation by government regulators if they don’t comply.)

In contrast, the US culturally venerates and legally protects private enterprises. Rudd suggests that both the US and China fear that the economic ideology of the other could threaten their own by fostering internal political resistance.

(Shortform note: Although the underlying economic ideologies of both countries are at odds with each other, in reality, neither country has a completely free market economy or a completely socialist economy. Economists point out that the US has a “mixed” economy, meaning that it has some features of capitalism and socialism. It has private property and private enterprise, but the government still intervenes in economic activities such as infrastructure investment, industry bailouts, and relief programs. China, despite its state-owned enterprises and strict regulation by the CCP, still has a strong private sector.)

In addition to the ideological differences between the two economic models, Xi’s NDC directly influences the US economy in negative ways (from the US perspective). For example, Rudd explains that China has curbed investment opportunities for US companies in the Chinese market and increased regulations on American imported products, making it harder for US companies to profit from Chinese markets. (Shortform note: The US recently announced a similar policy toward China, which will limit American investment in Chinese companies. It aims to slow down China’s technological advancement by preventing Americans from investing in the Chinese microchip industry and other technology sectors.)

Restoring Chinese Territory by Increasing Military Power

The next key priority of Xi’s that Rudd discusses is national unification—a goal Xi wants to achieve by restoring and protecting Chinese territories by increasing China’s military power. China wants to maintain its control of Hong Kong, Tibet, Inner Mongolia, and the state of Xinjiang. It also aspires to fully reunify with Taiwan and the Senkaku Islands in Japan. (Shortform note: As of May 2023, China still has control of Hong Kong, Tibet, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang.)

This priority escalates tensions with the US because the US no longer has a major advantage over China in terms of military capability as a result of China’s military upgrades. This limits the US’s ability to reinforce its political interests abroad solely based on its military superiority since China could retaliate.

(Shortform note: Although China’s military has advanced significantly under Xi, some experts argue that it still lags behind the US in terms of experience in military combat. On the other hand, some worry about the increasing size of China’s nuclear arsenal.)

Rudd writes that China has been upgrading its military in terms of equipment and training and has been increasing its naval activity in the South and East China Seas to intimidate some of the places (like Taiwan) that it aims to reunify with China. He asserts that China also conducts military patrols in the area to deter US intervention in a potential military conflict.

China has claimed all of these places, but they don’t necessarily want to be part of China. Rudd suggests that although China also uses political and economic strategies to exert control over these territories (which concerns the US for the reasons discussed in the previous section), the strengthening of the Chinese military is particularly troubling to the US.

(Shortform note: In addition to China’s actions in the Pacific and abroad, the US government is increasingly concerned with high-altitude surveillance balloons in the US and other countries. Experts claim that this type of balloon is capable of intercepting communication signals, posing a security risk for the US.)

Increasing Influence Through Investment and Global Structures

Xi’s third key priority is increasing China’s global power through investment in developing countries and by influencing global institutions. Rudd says that through these actions, China is challenging the geopolitical status quo—what he refers to as the “global rules-based order”—by becoming a key economic and political player. The components of the geopolitical status quo include things like development models for investing in low-income countries and the rules of governing bodies such as the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the UN.

(Shortform note: Although Rudd argues that Xi hopes to challenge the status quo with regard to international governing bodies, China still has significant influence within these groups. Despite its lack of compliance with some WTO policies, for example, it’s one of the WTO’s most active members, and the size of China’s economy gives it significant sway in this group. China is also a permanent member of the UN Security Council, giving it veto power over decisions.)

One key tool for asserting strategic global power is China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), an infrastructure project to revive China’s historic trade relations and increase the country’s economic ties to Europe, the Middle East, and South Asia.

Rudd claims that the BRI contributes to China’s power struggle with the US because the BRI’s success would place China in a more favorable diplomatic and economic position with countries around the world. This means that China would challenge the US as the most influential nation, and China would be less likely to face international backlash for its actions abroad (like military action against Taiwan) or domestically (such as human rights abuses).

Another aspect of the BRI includes investment in infrastructure (like telecommunications) and business projects throughout the developing world. Rudd argues that this investment has two major benefits for China: It increases access to raw materials and markets for Chinese products, and it provides political leverage over the US. For example, Rudd writes that countries receiving significant investment from China are likely to vote in favor of Chinese interests in the UN.

The BRI and Its Impact on the US

The BRI includes 138 countries, and its goal is to revive trade across the areas that were part of the original Silk Road—an ancient trade route connecting Asia to the Middle East and Western Europe (the “belt”). It also includes investment in a sea trade route linking Europe, Africa, and Southeast Asia (the “road”).

Outside a potential shift in power or alliance in the UN, one key concern of the US regarding the BRI is that China could increase its economic and political influence by seizing foreign assets, like ports and businesses, if receiving countries default on their loans from China. However, some research suggests that this concern is unwarranted, and most of these types of predatory loans are issued by other wealthy countries besides China. China has mostly refinanced, deferred, or written off defaulted loans.

The Current Status of US-China Relations

Rudd suggests that Xi’s strategies for bolstering China’s domestic and international power have caused increasing hostility between the US and China. Overall, he contends that each side views the other as an existential threat, and neither side believes the public stances of the opposing government. He writes that the last decade has been marked by several events triggering a downturn in US-China relations: increased cyberattacks by both sides, China’s heightened military presence in the South China Sea, former President Donald Trump’s trade war with China in 2018-2019, anti-China rhetoric by the US during the Covid-19 pandemic, and the US’s high-level diplomatic meetings in Taiwan.

Rudd says these events and the loss of trust that resulted have hindered the countries’ ability to cooperate even on a practical level, such as by maintaining beneficial trade relations. In this section, we describe Rudd’s summary of the US and China’s different perspectives.

(Shortform note: This tendency for both countries to outright deny the claims of the other has seemingly increased in recent years. For example, each side has accused the other of cyberattacks while denying their own alleged involvement in cyberattacks. Similarly, each has accused the other of coercion, intimidation, and disrupting peace in global politics.)

The Chinese Perspective

Rudd explains that economically, China believes it has the right to acquire influence and political clout abroad through investment and trade, just as the US has done for decades. China would argue that its development model in particular is superior to the US’s because it doesn’t come with conditions about how the beneficiary’s government has to operate.

For example, loans through the US and the International Monetary Fund often require the receiving government to institute a free market (without the government controlling commerce) and convert to a Western-style democratic government. In contrast, Rudd explains, China seeks mutually beneficial economic cooperation without forcing its ideology on developing countries.

(Shortform note: The counterargument to this point (as explained in the previous section) is that BRI investment does come with implicit strings attached—support for China in international governing bodies such as the UN. However, some research suggests that so far, the BRI has not significantly increased China’s “soft power” in the form of increased support in the international community. Another criticism of China’s development model is its lack of transparency, making it difficult for outside institutions to measure the impact of China’s loans and investments.)

In addition, China resents US presidents’ recent actions such as Trump’s trade war, which caused China economic distress due to policies like high tariffs on Chinese goods imported to the US. (Shortform note: Many economic analyses suggest that the trade war had a negative impact on the US, while for China, it mostly directed trade away from the US and toward other countries such as Mexico and Japan.)

Rudd contends that China also views many of the US’s actions through the lens of race, citing Trump’s use of the term “China virus” during the Covid-19 pandemic. (Shortform note: Evidence suggests that the term “China virus” not only harmed relations with China but also sparked an increase in hate crimes against Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders in the US.)

Rudd points out that although the administration under President Joe Biden has tamped down anti-China rhetoric, it hasn’t reversed many of the Trump-era sanctions on China (including tariffs and visa restrictions) leaving this point of tension with China unresolved.

(Shortform note: In addition to leaving previous sanctions in place, in 2023 the Biden administration issued new sanctions on China for activities such as selling surveillance technology to Iran. The Biden administration also revived a Trump executive order (in a new legislative form) by threatening to ban the partially Chinese-owned app TikTok if the Chinese owners don’t sell their shares to an American-owned company. The US claims that any Chinese ownership of TikTok poses a security risk to American users’ data and could give China the ability to spread propaganda.)

Politically, China would argue that the US government has always exerted its will through violent and coercive means, and it has also committed human rights violations against minorities within its own borders. Therefore, Rudd explains, China would say that American criticisms of China are hypocritical.

(Shortform note: Both the US and Chinese governments have published reports on the human rights abuses in each others’ countries; however, one analyst suggests that public shaming of another country’s human rights abuses may fail to stimulate change because it activates an “us versus them” mentality in the citizens of the accused country, making them more supportive of their government. Given the existing hostility between the US and China, this suggests that each country’s criticisms may exacerbate the rivalry rather than encourage positive change. On the other hand, when domestic journalists and human rights organizations raise awareness of human rights issues, it can help rally support for activists around this cause.)

The American Perspective

Rudd explains that economically, any unwillingness to participate in free market capitalism is a direct threat to the US’s goal of establishing a global order that aligns with its capitalist economic interests. This includes economic policies such as tariffs and China’s largely state-controlled economy. Similarly, Rudd writes that the economic and military advancement of any nation with Marxist-Leninist ideology challenges the supremacy of the US model of a liberal-style, capitalist democracy.

(Shortform note: Some experts say that this dynamic, in which both countries are vying for global influence using their distinct economic and political models, harkens to the Cold War era when the US and the Soviet Union both strived for geopolitical supremacy. In addition, some political analysts argue that with Russia and China’s strengthening alliance, particularly given China’s potential to influence the war in Ukraine, the China and Russia alliance poses a greater threat to the US power than the Soviet Union did before.)

According to Rudd, Trump in particular was outraged by the imbalance in trade (in favor of China) between the US and China, considering it harmful to the US’s reputation as well as its economy. This sparked a two-year contentious trade war in which the two countries continued to retaliate against each other economically. (Shortform note: Economists suggest that Trump’s trade war was ultimately unsuccessful as it had a negative impact on American business, employment, and wages. In addition, the trade war had little impact on Chinese exports and there were no indications that US manufacturing companies left China.)

Rudd says that the Trump and Biden administrations also criticized China for its authoritarian oppression of freedom of religion, speech, and press as well as its human rights abuses within China. For example, one of the US’s major criticisms is the ongoing genocide and mass imprisonment of the Muslim Uyghur ethnic minority in the Xinjiang region of China. Rudd writes that Xi began these anti-Uyghur policies in response to two Uyghur domestic terrorist attacks in 2013 and 2014.

(Shortform note: In addition to the US government’s public criticisms of China regarding human rights abuses, the US also exerted pressure on China by passing the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act in 2021. The law banned the import of products from the Xinjiang region where forced labor is used to make products. In 2022 the UN Human Rights Office published an assessment of the situation in Xinjiang saying that China has committed crimes against humanity. The report recommended that the Chinese government take immediate action to reverse its policies and investigate the allegations of human rights abuses.)

The US has also been angered by Chinese cyberattacks on private companies. (Shortform note: Examples of cyberattacks include a 2021 incident in which Chinese hackers were accused of accessing the Microsoft Exchange servers, giving China access to many businesses’ and organizations’ private information and intellectual property. There’s also growing concern in the US government that China could use cyberattacks to target US political parties and interfere with elections.)

Lastly, the US claims that China’s naval activities in the Pacific infringe on the rights of the independent nations of Southeast Asia. (Shortform note: A ruling by the UN determined that China’s naval activity in the South China Sea violates historic agreements that entitles other nations—including the Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Brunei—to free movement in the South China Sea.)

Consequences of a US-China War and How to Avoid It

Rudd argues that if tensions escalate to a military conflict, a US-China War would be catastrophic on many levels. He claims that a war would take its toll on both countries as well as the global community, and the risks of war make it worth striving for an alternative. Rudd’s most important reason to avoid war is the loss of human life that would result from military conflict.

In addition, Rudd writes that both countries would pay a high economic price if they waged war (for weaponry, equipment, and deploying troops), a war would cause global instability by potentially pulling other allies into the conflict, and both countries would risk losing domestic political power and global prestige if they lost the war or failed to decisively win.

The Economic Pros and Cons of a US-China War

Although Rudd highlights the high economic cost of war for both countries, others argue that economic pressure is also the most likely to motivate the US and China to start a war. Both countries want access to the semiconductors manufactured in Taiwan, so China might escalate the conflict by seizing control of the industry through military action on Taiwan, and the US might escalate the conflict to maintain its access to semiconductors by militarily defending Taiwan. The desire for access to this industry could potentially outweigh the other risks that Rudd describes.

On the other hand, some argue that even if the US won an initial military conflict against China over Taiwan, it could become an extremely costly defense effort to protect Taiwan in the long term against any future attacks. In addition, one analyst argues that the most likely outcome is that China defeats the US in a conventional military confrontation in the Pacific, or in the worst-case scenario, mutual nuclear attacks could ensue.

Another writer argues that a prolonged war with China would have broad impacts on Americans domestically—most importantly, it would devastate the US economy if trade halted between the two countries.

A Three-Part Diplomacy Plan

Rudd’s recommendation for avoiding a war is a form of diplomacy he refers to as “strategic managed cooperation.” His vision for US-China relations has three key parts: establishing clear conditions (what Rudd calls “redlines”) that neither side can violate without risking war, allowing economic and political competition to carry on as usual, and collaborating in areas where it's mutually beneficial, such as combating climate change.

Although Rudd acknowledges that his plan might appear naive, he also asserts that it’s the best alternative that each country has to avoid a catastrophic conflict. He says that by avoiding it long enough through explicit agreements, political relations might improve organically over time.

(Shortform note: Despite ongoing accusations and sanctions, the US recently announced that it’s ready to resume high-level diplomatic talks with China to improve communication. As of spring 2023, it’s unclear whether China will be willing to re-engage with the US in the way that Rudd envisions.)

Establishing Clear Boundaries

Rudd’s first component of the diplomacy plan is the most important for preventing one country’s actions from accidentally sparking a full-on war. His idea is for both sides to be transparent about actions that are unequivocally off-limits, and importantly, these boundaries have to be verifiable so that each country can monitor the other.

(Shortform note: This aspect of Rudd’s plan might be more difficult in practice than in theory. Many of the recent accusations by China and the US are theoretically “verifiable,” but both countries have still denied the claims of the other. For example, when the US accused China of illegally entering US airspace with a surveillance balloon, China responded by saying it was a civilian meteorological research airship.)

Rudd suggests, for example, that both countries might ban cyberattacks on critical infrastructure. China might insist that the US end diplomatic visits to high-ranking government officials in Taiwan—visits that Rudd says needlessly provoke China. The US, on the other hand, might insist that China allow free movement of sea and air vessels in the South China Sea. By establishing these clear boundaries, each country will understand what actions warrant military retaliation—much like a set of high-stakes ultimatums.

(Shortform note: Rudd’s ideas for mutual ultimatums might be particularly hard to implement with regard to Taiwan. As we mentioned previously, reunifying with Taiwan is a core priority of Xi and the CCP, and it also represents a key interest for the US, since Taiwan supplies it with semiconductors. In addition, the US is obligated by the Taiwan Relations Act to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself against a military attack by China. Given these opposing interests, it’s unclear whether this issue could be resolved through explicit agreements.)

Allowing Normal Competition

Under Rudd’s framework, as long as the US and China didn’t violate the conditions described in the previous section, both countries could continue to engage in economic and political competition without escalating tensions. Economically, this includes activities like competing for access to each other’s consumer and investment markets and tailoring trade policies to their own advantage. Rudd explains that the US and China could continue competition at the ideological level as well—the US promoting democracy and free market capitalism and China promoting its economic development based on authoritarian capitalism.

(Shortform note: This aspect of Rudd’s plan isn’t much different from what’s currently happening economically between the two countries. The main distinction from the present is that Rudd seems to imply that under this new agreement, economic competition wouldn’t be perceived as an act of aggression. The US and China resolved the 2018-2019 trade war through mutual agreements, although some experts point out that some of these agreements have been made (and broken) previously.)

Collaborating on Key Global Issues

The last part of Rudd’s diplomacy plan is for the two countries to collaborate when it comes to mitigating global challenges such as climate change and nuclear proliferation. Rudd contends that since climate change threatens the long-term economic stability of both countries, and widescale reduction of carbon emissions is critical, both would benefit from collaborative action.

(Shortform note: One estimate suggests that climate change could reduce the global GDP by up to 18% by 2050 (due to the loss of natural resources and the impact of extreme weather events). An example of an opportunity for the US and China to collaborate on this issue is the Presidential Net-Negative Emissions Moonshot—a program in which scientists from the US, China, and other countries would work together to create innovative technologies that remove carbon from the atmosphere.)

In addition, Rudd writes that the US and China would benefit from preventing countries such as Iran and North Korea from producing nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons are a threat to the national security of both the US and China and give other countries more political leverage since they can threaten a nuclear attack. Rudd suggests that the US and China could collaborate on this issue by both ratifying the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty and negotiating other agreements to maintain the status quo in terms of nuclear weapons development.

(Shortform note: The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty is an agreement created by the UN in 1996 that bans all nuclear explosions. However, the agreement doesn’t go into effect unless 44 specific countries with nuclear capability sign and ratify it. As of early 2023, China, the US, and six other countries on that list had not ratified the agreement.)