PDF Summary:The Absent Superpower, by Peter Zeihan

In The Absent Superpower, Peter Zeihan examines how the shale revolution has allowed the United States to achieve energy independence and drastically altered the geopolitical landscape. With the U.S. withdrawing from its role as an international peacekeeper, Zeihan predicts that the resulting "Disorder" will lead to trade conflicts and wars over energy and resources across regions like Europe, the Middle East, and East Asia.

As countries vie for dwindling energy supplies, the U.S. will selectively leverage its newfound economic and military might, capitalizing on investment opportunities and forging strategic alliances. Zeihan spotlights areas like Southeast Asia and parts of Latin America as potential focus points for U.S. influence in the new world order.

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1. The likely next move for Russia could involve targeting the Baltic states—Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—which may result in Scandinavian countries including Norway, Denmark, Sweden, and Finland getting drawn into the conflict. Zeihan argues that the UK's intrinsic concerns regarding Russia's naval power are likely to draw it into the conflict. The conflict will escalate into a multifaceted battle, as Russia seeks to dominate the skies while the UK and Scandinavian countries establish control over maritime territories, leading to a prolonged land-based clash involving both sides.
2. Russia's primary objective will be to take control of Poland, thereby closing off the "Polish Gap" and fortifying its western frontier. Zeihan posits that Germany is fated to enhance its military capabilities and engage in a major land-based conflict. A looming, extended struggle looms, one that will determine the future of Northern Europe's expansive plains. Achieving unity in the southern region is a primary objective. Russia will endeavor to consolidate its control along its southern frontier by incorporating countries adjacent to the Caucasus mountains and located in the Danube valley, thereby establishing significant natural defenses. Zeihan emphasizes the vulnerability of these countries to rapid domination by Russia, but also notes that the historical influence of Turkey in the region could complicate Moscow's objectives. To distract Turkey, Russia will instigate chaos in Syria, leading to a refugee influx that will overwhelm Turkey's political and diplomatic resources, forcing them to redirect their focus southward.

Zeihan contends that the Twilight War will result in a substantial interruption of Europe's energy resources due to Russia's strategic manipulation of the oil and gas conduits crossing the continent. Countries such as Germany and Poland, which are heavily dependent on Russian energy sources, will face shortages that will intensify Europe's economic vulnerability and weaken its resolve. Zeihan predicts that this situation will lead to a significant increase in worldwide energy prices, thereby enhancing the prominence of U.S. shale oil producers.

The escalating rivalry for dominance between Saudi Arabia and Iran, fueled by a combination of religious, ethnic, economic, and political motivations, has the potential to lead to a conflict that could disrupt global oil supply.

Zeihan suggests that as the United States reduces its involvement in the Middle East, this will ignite fierce competition, ultimately leading to clashes between Iran and Saudi Arabia, two nations with a long-standing history of rivalry for dominance in the region. He elaborates on the fundamental disputes stemming from the longstanding enmity between Shia and Sunni Muslims, the battle for supremacy between Persian and Arab groups, the conflict between theocratic rule and absolute monarchies, the divergence between diverse and petroleum-dependent economies, and the ongoing territorial disagreements. Zeihan argues that the ongoing resolution of these conflicts is largely attributed to the commitment of the United States to maintain a steady flow of oil. Saudi Arabia has embarked on a two-pronged strategy in response to the reduced role of the United States in the region.

1. Proxy warfare: The Saudis have invested heavily in backing Sunni-aligned militias across the region to counterbalance Iranian influence. Proxy conflicts have flared up within Syria and Iraq, affecting neighboring areas such as Yemen and Lebanon, and their effects reach even to Pakistan. Zeihan underscores the danger of this strategy, pointing out that groups like ISIS and al-Qaeda represent the possibility that these proxy forces might pursue goals that diverge from Saudi interests. However, Zeihan argues that the Saudis are willing to withstand significant unintended consequences, viewing chaos and instability as victories when they result in diminishing Tehran's sway.
2. Economic warfare: The Saudis are embroiled in an economic struggle with Iran, a situation fueled by their plentiful hydrocarbon reserves. In late 2014, Saudi Arabia launched a price war with the intention of substantially cutting the oil revenue that Iran relies on, which would limit its ability to finance its regional ambitions and sustain its social welfare schemes. Zeihan emphasizes the unequal allocation of economic resources among competitors. The considerable wealth that Saudi Arabia has amassed from oil, along with its sizeable financial reserves, equips it to endure prolonged spells of low oil prices, unlike Iran, which faces greater economic vulnerability due to sanctions and a less robust economy. This economic strain, coupled with their successes in proxy wars, will ultimately force Iran to choose between capitulation and engaging in an outright confrontation with Saudi Arabia.

Zeihan predicts a contest for control over a crucial maritime choke point, which is pivotal for the global circulation of oil, known as the Persian Gulf. He suggests that Iran has the capability to block the Strait of Hormuz using its naval strength, missile capabilities, and strategically placed mines. Zeihan emphasizes that Iran's ability to maintain a blockade for a prolonged duration is hindered by the superior air forces of Saudi Arabia and its allies, along with their ability to utilize pipelines for exports that bypass the Strait. He postulates that this will lead to a protracted conflict, marked by tit-for-tat attacks on each other's oil infrastructure and tanker fleets, driving global oil prices sky-high as the world faces massive supply disruptions.

Countries such as Japan and China compete for limited resources and energy in the disputed maritime regions of East Asia, facing uncertainty without the guarantee of US military protection.

Zeihan suggests that the dwindling availability of oil, further strained by the consequences of the Twilight and Gulf Wars, could escalate hostilities in East Asia, which might culminate in a major naval clash as the region's leading countries compete for energy resources. Japan, China, South Korea, and Taiwan are heavily reliant on the importation of oil from abroad to meet their energy requirements. Their resources are predominantly sourced from international locations. As the cost of oil rises and resources dwindle, the NE4 will be engaged in a competition for these increasingly scarce assets, altering the geopolitical landscape of their respective regions. Zeihan posits that in the absence of the protective role played by the US Navy, the maritime routes could grow increasingly dangerous, prompting the NE4 to strengthen their supply chains and compete for control over key strategic points.

During the "Tanker War" period, Zeihan emphasizes Japan's unexpectedly robust stance. Japan, despite facing economic stagnation and demographic challenges, continues to operate a formidable and sophisticated navy that ensures the security of its far-reaching maritime commerce lanes. The nation's natural terrain provides a formidable barrier and strong defense against incursions. Zeihan posits that Japan, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia will form alliances based on strategic interests, creating an unspoken realm of influence that regulates access to crucial resources and maritime pathways.

China faces a considerably more unstable situation in comparison. Despite a larger population and a booming economy, China's reliance on maritime imports is far greater than Japan's, and its navy, focused primarily on land-based threats, is ill-equipped for long-range power projection. Zeihan underscores the susceptibility of a major Asian power, highlighting its dependence on domestically sourced coal for industrial processes, the risk of political fragmentation from the energy demands of its swiftly expanding southern coastal metropolises, and the tactical dilemma posed by Taiwan, a steadfast partner of the United States, located in a position that could disrupt the maritime commerce pathways of this nation. Zeihan argues that China's position will result in a reduced influence within the global economic and political spheres, due to the nation's energy consumption exceeding its ability to secure a consistent supply.

During the Period of Turmoil, the approach taken by the United States will be strategic

As the rest of the world grapples with the repercussions stemming from the Disorder, the United States will approach the situation with a strategy that is both sharper and more prudent, ensuring a smoother transition. Its diplomatic strategy will capitalize on its economic interests to leverage its advantages, utilizing its unparalleled military might to achieve particular goals.

The United States has shifted its approach to foreign policy, transitioning from a broad involvement in global affairs to a more discerning and strategic use of military power, with an emphasis on economic interests and the accomplishment of specific objectives.

Zeihan argues that after stepping back from maintaining the international system, the United States will adopt a more selective foreign policy that capitalizes on emerging opportunities. He posits that the United States will concentrate on its financial interests, utilizing its unmatched military strength and economic supremacy to secure resources, participate in global commerce, and form alliances on terms it prefers. The period of widespread engagement across various domains has concluded, transitioning to an approach that is more focused and self-reliant, highlighting preferences and tendencies that are uniquely characteristic of the United States.

Zeihan emphasizes the potential for the United States to enhance its capabilities in specialized military maneuvers, drone warfare, and naval force projection while simultaneously scaling back its conventional military presence. The ability to produce shale has empowered the United States to wield its influence on the world stage through more precise, selective, and often covert actions.

Investing financially, supporting militarily, and influencing diplomatically are essential tactics to extend one's influence in order to obtain resources, penetrate new markets, and establish partnerships with important entities.

Zeihan emphasizes the growing importance of leveraging economic incentives as a crucial component within the United States' toolkit for international diplomacy. The approach of leveraging economic clout to achieve objectives will resurface more vigorously, merging financial investment with the proposition of defense support and utilizing diplomatic pressure to secure access to resources, business prospects, and pivotal alliances. Zeihan argues that the United States, with its unmatched economic vigor, the most expansive market for consumers, and an unrivaled military footprint, will implement the strategy with unparalleled effectiveness.

He emphasizes the pivotal role that corporations from the United States in the energy sector will play in defining the upcoming era. These enterprises, equipped with monetary assets, cutting-edge technology, and expertise in supply chain management, will be able to operate effectively in challenging environments, often supported by the discreet yet unwavering assistance of the United States' diplomatic and military strengths.

The book highlights the significance of regions with strong population growth, abundant energy resources, and a willingness to work together, particularly in specific areas within Southeast Asia and certain locales in Latin America.

Zeihan suggests that the United States will focus its economic strength and financial strategies on particular regions that possess both robust population growth and significant energy capabilities. In certain regions of Latin America, collaboration is essential. These regions will serve as conduits to burgeoning markets, vital resources, and partnerships that hold strategic importance. The United States will continue to be well-protected and faces minimal risks to its safety.

Zeihan emphasizes the appeal of the region in Southeast Asia, drawing attention to its young population, stable geopolitical climate, and emergence as a center for industrial production. He argues that Southeast Asia's ability to satisfy its energy needs and capitalize on the shifting global economic environment will largely hinge on support from the United States, thus nurturing a mutually beneficial partnership. In Latin America, the focus will be on bolstering and preserving America's dominance over its energy resources. Zeihan underscores the ability of prominent American energy corporations to leverage their sophisticated technology and robust financial resources to revitalize and amplify oil production in countries like Venezuela, as well as in Brazil, solidifying their dominance in the regional energy commerce. However, he also acknowledges that growing inequalities and the participation of the United States might incite resistance and give rise to civil disorder throughout different nations in Latin America.

Japan's ascent to a leading position could potentially lead to conflicts as it seeks to assert its influence in East Asia.

Zeihan also anticipates that a revitalized Japan may contribute to heightened tensions in East Asia. Japan is diligent in securing its energy needs and expanding its sway over the neighboring region. The potential for conflict could arise from the focus on protecting American interests, particularly in terms of their global influence in the region known as Southeast Asia. Zeihan argues that the deep-seated animosity between Japan and China, each with their own unique financial and tactical goals, could escalate into armed confrontations.

He underscores the impressive endurance and strength of Japan's naval power, designed for sustained missions. America's capacity to exert control across vast regions, along with its robust ties to Taiwan and other entities, strategically capitalizes on China's weaknesses and its sway over the region to establish an order led by Japan. These factors will position Japan as a formidable competitor to the United States, creating a potential flashpoint for conflict in an already unstable region.

Other Perspectives

• The impact of shale production on US energy independence may be overstated, as the US still imports oil and participates in the global oil market.
• Technological advancements in shale extraction may have environmental costs that are not fully accounted for in discussions of economic benefits.
• The job growth attributed to the shale revolution may be temporary or overstated, as the energy sector can be volatile and subject to boom-bust cycles.
• The assertion that the US is retreating from its role as a global guardian may be premature or simplistic, as the US continues to maintain a significant military and diplomatic presence worldwide.
• The idea that the US can selectively engage in global affairs without broader consequences may overlook the interconnected nature of global politics and economics.
• The notion that financial investment, military support, and diplomatic influence can easily extend a country's influence may not account for the complexities and unintended consequences of foreign intervention.
• The emphasis on the significance of regions with strong population growth and energy resources may not consider the full range of factors that contribute to geopolitical stability and partnerships.
• The potential for Japan to ascend to a leading position in East Asia may not fully consider the constraints of Japan's pacifist constitution and the regional dynamics that could limit its influence.