PDF Summary:Prisoners of Geography, by Tim Marshall

Why do some nations develop thriving economies and stable governments while others continually struggle with poverty and instability? According to Tim Marshall in Prisoners of Geography, the answer lies in geography. Marshall argues that a nation’s geography can determine its fate—nations with bountiful natural resources and protective physical features tend to thrive and prosper while other nations struggle by comparison.

In our guide, you’ll learn how rivers, mountains, and people interact to shape a nation’s fortunes. You’ll also learn how geography shapes the way that nations interact with each other. On the international stage, Marshall argues, nations use trade, diplomacy, and military force as they vie for access to geographical bounties—troves of resources, trade routes, and defensive features. As we cover Marshall’s ideas, we’ll consider a variety of perspectives on the role of geography in politics. We’ll also contrast these views with those of historians who argue that other forces, such as economics and culture, have been more influential in shaping history.

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Borders That Ignore Geography Lead to Internal Strife

As evidence for the power of geography, Marshall describes the disastrous consequences that ensue when humans ignore geography. Specifically, Marshall argues that when humans draw borders that ignore both geography and the geographic distribution of different populations, violence and tragedy result.

As an example, Marshall cites the many borders European colonists drew during the plundering of Africa. These borders often included various groups from wholly separate cultures with no common interests and histories of conflict. Down the line, as a result of these poorly drawn borders, sectarian conflict and civil war would become common throughout the continent, as feuding groups were forced to coexist within artificially created countries.

Borders and Global Conflict

Historians point to the 1884-1885 Berlin Conference as a moment when many borders were created that would eventually lead to conflict in Africa. At the conference, delegates from across Europe, as well as from the United States and the Ottoman Empire, met to determine which parts of Africa each country would colonize. The lines drawn at the Berlin Conference cut many societies into multiple pieces—research suggests that these societies are more likely to suffer from conflict and poverty to this day.

Some activists have greatly expanded on Marshall’s argument about the relationship between borders and violence. They argue that all borders lead to violence, not just borders that ignore geography. Furthermore, they oppose the immigration systems of most countries, viewing them to be unjust. Instead, they advocate for people to be able to move across international borders without regulation.

Modern Technology Can Overcome Geography

While geography has been a historically powerful influence in shaping nations, according to Marshall, modern technology can be used to change and overcome geography.

(Shortform note: While modern technology can overcome geography, geography still shapes life in the modern world. Studies show that even though the internet allows humans across the globe to connect with each other, we still spend most of our time on social media interacting with people who live near us.)

To demonstrate how technology can be used to overcome geography, Marshall describes the impact of modern energy technology in the US. While the US has historically struggled to supply its own energy, advances in technology have allowed it to access its own massive reserves of liquid natural gas. As a result, the US is increasingly energy independent. While it once relied on foreign oil, and fought wars and wrote policy to defend its interests in that oil, its policy has shifted away from this focus as it has gained the ability to generate energy domestically.

(Shortform note: Commentators note that the United States’ increasing energy independence has influenced its foreign policy. In Blowout, Rachel Maddow contends that thanks to its reduced reliance on Saudi Arabian oil, the United States has been able to intervene more freely in the Middle East, without worry about angering its energy suppliers.)

Global Warming: Technology’s Unexpected Geographical Impact

Since the massive advancements in technology that came with the Industrial Revolution, human behavior has contributed to global warming. As Marshall notes, global warming is actively changing the geography and politics of the world.

Marshall writes that new trade routes have opened as polar ice has receded. New sea routes north of both Russia and North America are now open for several months a year, allowing for cheaper trade. As more new routes open up, the nations that use them will vie for control of these areas.

More worryingly, as new trade routes open thanks to global warming, coastal economic centers worldwide are in increasing danger of flooding as the geography of the coasts changes.

Global Warming and Geopolitics

Experts note that we’ve only begun to experience the many, far-reaching effects of climate change on geography and geopolitics. As the world transitions away from fossil fuels, nations that rely on oil to fuel their economies will be put in weakened economic positions.

Furthermore, in addition to the new Arctic shipping lanes Marshall describes, computer modeling suggests that new routes between China and the Eastern United States may soon open. With each new route that opens, the political struggle for control of the Arctic will intensify.

Lastly, as coastal cities and nations begin to flood, researchers predict that a wave of mass migrations will occur. These researchers predict that as many as 200 million climate refugees will be forced to move by 2050. In addition to the pain and suffering endured by those who will lose their homes to climate change, there will also be massive political and economic implications for the many countries that will house those refugees.

Geography Dictates How Nations Interact

Marshall asserts that in addition to determining a nation’s development and internal politics, geography shapes how nations interact with one another. Based on its geography, a nation may focus on securing energy resources, securing trade routes, or taking action to secure itself in anticipation of future conflicts.

(Shortform note: The idea that geography shapes relations between nations, also known as geopolitics, has a complicated history. Originally arising in the 1800s, geopolitics was a guiding philosophy for imperial powers. Historians note that geopolitics became an unpopular framework due to the fact that it was associated with Nazi strategy. However, since the 1970s, geopolitical thinking has experienced a resurgence, though in updated forms that are less imperialist.)

Nations Compete Over Energy and Other Resources

On the international level, nations compete for access to geographic resources, most often fossil fuel deposits. Nations that lack the resources to power themselves domestically tend to go beyond their borders to secure energy, whether via conquest or trade.

(Shortform note: Experts note that even the wealthiest nations in the world must rely on other nations to secure the resources they need, especially when it comes to energy. As a result of this interdependence, experts stress the need for international cooperation and diplomacy when it comes to sharing resources.)

As an example of a nation looking beyond its borders for resources, Marshall points to Japan’s history. While its geography makes it difficult to invade, Japan lacks significant domestic energy sources. As a result, it has historically invaded the Asian mainland in pursuit of resources.

(Shortform note: Some authors have noted that in its overseas ambitions, Japan greatly resembles another small but powerful island nation: the United Kingdom. These authors note that the geography of both nations has shaped their respective histories, pushing both nations to oscillate between isolationism and imperialism.)

While in many cases military tactics are used to access foreign energy sources, some states use economic muscle to get the resources they need.

For example, as China’s economy has expanded, Chinese companies have been looking overseas to secure the energy needed to fuel China’s rapid growth. Marshall notes that many of these companies operate in African nations. While the Chinese strategy of using trade to access African resources is less outwardly violent than historical European colonization, the end result is similar. Africa’s resources and wealth are yet again being funneled away to feed the appetite of the world’s wealthiest nations.

(Shortform note: In addition to creating companies to siphon resources, China has also used debt traps to gain economic power in developing nations around the world. To set up these traps, the Chinese government loans money to smaller, struggling countries, which are unable to pay back the loans. China then uses these debts as political leverage, forcing the smaller states into policies that are amenable to Chinese interests. These kinds of exploitative international economic relations are sometimes referred to as economic imperialism.)

Energy Dependence as a Bargaining Chip

According to Marshall, countries that export large amounts of energy can use their relative wealth to influence the countries that depend on them for energy.

Notably, many European nations depend on Russian oil for energy. This makes it difficult for these nations to oppose Russia, in politics or in war, as Russia can choose to cut off its exports to these countries at any time.

(Shortform note: Energy suppliers may not be able to influence other nations if their customers have other energy options. In 2022, shortly after invading Ukraine, the Russian government began implementing policies designed to pressure its customers out of opposing the war. In response, EU nations began an effort to free themselves from dependence on Russian energy, turning to nations such as Azerbaijan and Norway. Commentators note that many countries managed to quickly and successfully transition to these energy suppliers, thereby nullifying the Russian government's attempts to use its energy reserves as political leverage.)

Nations Compete to Secure Trade Routes

As they look to secure their energy reserves, nations also seek to secure profitable trade routes. Controlling major trade routes gives nations influence over all the other nations that use those routes, making these routes especially strategically important.

(Shortform note: Competition for control of trade routes was especially heated during the European colonial period. From the 15th to the 17th century, nations such as Portugal, Spain, and the Netherlands fought for control of the most lucrative routes, hoping to efficiently ferry wealth from their colonies to their home countries.)

As an example of nations vying for control of important trade routes, Marshall references the Strait of Malacca, which is jointly controlled by Malaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore. China ships massive amounts of oil through the strait, as do many other countries. As a result of the strait’s economic importance, the US and China are both trying to draw Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia closer to them.

(Shortform note: The Strait of Malacca’s importance to the global economy has made it a prime target for piracy. While piracy in the area has increased, the region’s governments are often unable to prosecute pirates for crimes that happen in waters controlled by other nations. Commentators contend that unless maritime law is changed, piracy will likely continue to be an issue in the Strait of Malacca.)

Along with these economic choke points, Marshall argues that nations strive to gain access to deep harbors that are usable in winter. Russia in particular has no domestic ports that allow it to engage in trade or combat on the seas year-round—while Siberia has several ports, they aren’t usable for much of the winter. Marshall argues that the goal of Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea was to gain access to a year-round port on the Black Sea.

(Shortform note: As evidence for the importance of ports and harbors, experts note that as much as 80% of global commerce is shipped by sea. Because of the potential economic windfall associated with global ports, Russia has made major economic sacrifices to pursue them. Commentators note that while it boosted domestic morale, the annexation of Crimea may have cost Russia more than $80 billion in total.)

Nations Are Always Preparing for International Conflict

Along with pursuing international trade routes and sources of energy, nations are continually preparing themselves for the next international conflict. As we’ll discuss, nations attempt to fortify their defenses by seizing key geographic areas to prepare for war. And, when they can’t directly control certain areas, powerful nations will also compete for regional influence in proxy conflicts, which occur when powerful nations use diplomacy, trade, and military aid to indirectly gain influence abroad.

(Shortform note: Strategic geography is the term for the strategy of controlling specific regions based on the military importance of their geography. Some experts believe that as time goes on, many nations will make outer space a priority in their geographic strategy. As space becomes more crowded, these experts argue, nations will politic for the right to send their satellites into the few, contested areas that remain available.)

Nations Expand to Fortify Their Defenses

Expansion is often driven by a nation’s desire to create a more secure border. As Marshall describes, certain geographic features are easier to defend than others.

(Shortform note: Military strategists note that while geography is less emphasized in their field than in the past, geography is as important to military strategy as ever. They argue that geography is an essential tool for understanding new theaters of combat, such as space and cyberspace.)

As an example of a nation expanding in pursuit of geographic security, Marshall argues that China annexed Tibet to secure its border with India. While India is unlikely to invade China via Tibet due to the immense difficulty of moving troops through the Himalayas, Marshall argues that controlling Tibet gives China a strategic advantage. Tibet’s location in the peaks of the Himalayas gives China the highest ground in any future border conflict.

(Shortform note: In 2020, border tensions between India and China erupted into violence in the Himalayas. Since that time, occasional skirmishes have broken out in the Ladakh region, which both countries purport to own. Commentators believe that the Chinese military was reacting to India’s attempts to establish their own airbase in the Himalayas. Regardless of their motivations, it’s probable that border disputes between the two countries will continue.)

Superpowers Fight to Gain Regional Influence

When powerful nations can’t directly control a strategically important area, they often use diplomacy, trade, or military aid to court influence with the leaders in those areas. Marshall asserts that this is especially common in areas that multiple superpowers want to control. Rather than risk the devastation that would come with open military conflict with a competing superpower, these nations use other methods to build power.

(Shortform note: Some authors contend that while such conflicts had become less common since the end of the Cold War, proxy wars between superpowers are once again on the rise. In recent years, the United States, China, and Russia have deployed privatized military contractors in proxy conflicts around the world. As China continues to grow in both economic and military strength, it’s likely that it will continue to use its newfound might to defend its interests abroad.)

In a prominent and long-running example of a proxy conflict, India and Pakistan have struggled for control of Kashmir since they achieved independence. According to Marshall, Kashmir holds strategic significance for both nations, as it would give each of them a border with otherwise inaccessible nations. Instead of engaging in direct conflict for Kashmir, the two sides battle more covertly for control of the region. Pakistan funds and trains Kashmiri fighters who rebel against the controlling Indian army, as both sides claim to own Kashmir.

(Shortform note: In 2019, the Indian government claimed full control over Kashmir. At the time, it was feared that this would lead to war with Pakistan, but ultimately this didn’t occur. Since claiming control of Kashmir, the Indian government has demolished buildings on over 50,000 acres of land in Kashmir, claiming they were built illegally on state land. Commentators have asserted that the true aim of these tactics is the subjugation of Kashmir’s majority Muslim population. While the Indian government claims that violence in Kashmir has ended, pro-Pakistan militants have continued to violently oppose the government's authoritarian measures.)