PDF Summary:Decisive, by Chip and Dan Heath

Our lives are full of big decisions, yet our minds are wired to make bad ones. Authors Dan and Chip Heath claim that we make poor decisions due to our biases and illogical ways of thinking. In Decisive, they draw on psychology research to argue that it’s possible to overcome the cognitive flaws that impair decision-making. In this guide, we’ll walk you through the Heath brothers’ four-step process for improving our choices. You’ll learn how to:

• Overcome biases that distort your decision-making
• Develop options that you hadn’t considered before
• Gather credible information to inform your choices
• Put your emotions into perspective during tough decisions
• Prepare for a decision’s best-case and worst-case scenarios

As we explore this process, we’ll compare the authors’ ideas on decision-making to those of other experts on choice, such as Barry Schwartz, Annie Duke, and Daniel Kahneman. We’ll also contextualize the book’s ideas using research on how culture and society influence decision-making. Furthermore, we’ll supplement the Heath brothers’ strategies with actionable steps.

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For example, consider a teenager who asks his parents for a cell phone. His parents want to please him, but they’re reluctant to increase his social media access. To produce an extra option beyond the binary of “phone or no phone,” they could seek advice from other parents who’ve bought their children cell phones about how to supervise and limit children’s social media use.

(Shortform note: When seeking expert advice for a career-related decision, think carefully about whom to consult and what questions to ask. Researchers suggest that for career-related decisions, you should seek the advice of expert professionals. For personal decisions, seek the advice of experienced friends or family. When approaching an expert for career-related advice, it may help to use informational interview techniques (when you ask questions of someone in a field you’re interested in). Use an email template when reaching out, research the expert in advance, and keep your Q&A short.)

Which Decisions Are Worth Developing Multiple Options For?

This first step of the Heath brothers’ process, uncovering more options, offers many benefits—but it may be time-intensive. Life is finite, as Oliver Burkeman reminds us in his book Four Thousand Weeks, and he argues that we must thoughtfully manage our time to prioritize what matters most to us. Similarly, Barry Schwartz argues in The Paradox of Choice that having too many choices in all areas of our lives causes us to devote too much time to unimportant decisions. So, how do we decide which decisions to spend time on?

Psychologist Dan Ariely, author of Predictably Irrational, recommends considering whether the decision you’re making has an expiration date and prioritizing decisions that do. For example, a person with a sick grandparent may prioritize the decision of how to spend time with them over a decision that doesn’t expire (such as whether to buy a grill).

Once we’ve determined which decisions are worth our time, we can reduce our decision-making time for less-important ones. One psychologist, who warns that decision overload leads to procrastination, offers several techniques:

• Have someone else make the decision. Find someone else who might be better at making that decision than you (and possibly even enjoy making it). For instance, if you’re unsure what to wear to an event, consider asking a fashionable friend to choose your outfit.

• Choose a “go-to” option. For recurring decisions, automatically go with the same, easily doable option—even if it’s not perfect. For instance, if you want to exercise more, choose a “go-to” exercise—such as a 30-minute run—and only deviate from that plan if you have the time and energy to brainstorm something that requires more planning (such as weightlifting).

Step 2: Question Your Viewpoint

After you develop two to four appealing options, it’s time to evaluate them. However, because of confirmation bias, we often ignore crucial information about our options. The Heaths emphasize that while we can’t eliminate our confirmation bias, we can resist its power and make well-informed decisions. In this section, we’ll share several strategies for doing so.

Strategy 1: Seek Out an Opposing Viewpoint

One way to resist your confirmation bias is to hunt for information that contradicts your existing beliefs. The authors claim that according to research, when we consider an opposing viewpoint, we force ourselves to pay attention to high-quality information that we’d otherwise ignore due to confirmation bias.

A technique to accomplish this strategy is to find an expert on the topic of your decision and ask questions that welcome an opposing viewpoint. For example, imagine a high school graduate who must choose among several colleges. One college tops their list because they believe it has a strong art program. They meet with an admissions counselor from that college to learn more. Their confirmation bias tempts them to ask questions that confirm their belief that the art program is strong. Instead, they can seek out an opposing viewpoint by asking, “What are some issues with the art program?”

Seeking Out Opposing Viewpoints While Online

For many people, the Internet is a primary source of information—but the Internet also intensifies confirmation bias. Algorithms use information about our preferences to determine which ads and search results to show. This can lead to a “filter bubble effect”: a phenomenon in which a) our confirmation bias limits what content we look for in the first place, and b) algorithms reinforce the bias by only showing us ads and search results that fit our existing preferences. This surrounds us in a cocoon of information that continually fortifies our existing beliefs.

How can we counter the filter bubble effect? One entrepreneur recommends we “Google the opposite”: use search terms that bring us to opposing viewpoints. For example, the high school graduate could seek out perspectives that speak to a school’s downsides by Googling the name of a school followed by words like “overrated” or “unhappy.”

Strategy 2: Seek Out Objective Information

The authors argue that due to our confirmation bias, we trust our biased instincts over more accurate data about what people in a similar situation have experienced. To overcome this, we can seek out objective information.

One way to do this is to pay attention to base rates: statistics that describe the percentage of a population for which something is true. For example, the aforementioned college applicant could compare base rates from each college that show what percentage of its art majors find a job in the arts after graduation.

(Shortform note: If you’re unfamiliar with base rates or statistics in general, you might worry about misinterpreting data you find. One way to ensure you wisely interpret data is to research a statistic’s sample size: the number of people it represents. For example, if the college applicant encountered a statistic that read, “100% of our 2020 art program graduates found a job in the arts,” they could follow it up with this question: “How many students graduated that year?” If the answer is three, the statistic may be less revealing than if the answer is 300.)

The authors offer another way to seek objective information: Ask an expert questions that prompt them to share factual information, specifically. The authors recommend that you avoid asking questions about the future. For example, the college applicant shouldn’t ask the counselor, “Do you think this program will prepare me for an art career?” This question may fall prey to the counselor’s own biases. Instead, the authors instruct us to ask questions about the past and the present. An expert provides a more objective perspective on these types of questions.

• A present-focused question: “What are ways you provide current students with job experience?”
• A past-oriented question: “What are some arts-based careers that recent graduates have found?”

(Shortform note: When talking with an expert to gather objective information, how can we distinguish between subjective and objective statements they make? One tip is to be on the lookout for words or phrases that make value judgments, as these often indicate a statement is subjective. Phrases such as “worse then,” or “better than,” and “could mean that,” all reflect a speaker’s subjective interpretation.)

Strategy 3: Conduct a Trial Run

A final way to consider objective information is to generate it yourself. As previously stated, our confirmation bias prevents us from making credible predictions by distorting how we interpret information. To further overcome this bias, the authors suggest gathering more credible information by conducting a trial run of at least one option. A trial run is a test that allows you to accurately evaluate an option, since it provides evidence of the option’s outcomes. This evidence helps you make an informed prediction about how the decision may pan out long-term.

For example, a man who’s unsure whether he wants to move in with his partner could conduct a trial run by moving in with them for two weeks. This experience and its pros and cons could inform whether or not he stays beyond that time.

Barriers to Conducting Trial Runs

Someone’s privilege may influence whether they can afford to conduct trial runs for certain types of decisions. For example, internships are a common way for college students and recent graduates to give a career they’re interested in a trial run. However, internships are often unpaid: In 2019, 43% of internships at for-profit companies were unpaid. This means that only those with existing wealth can afford to complete the internships. Furthermore, students of color are underrepresented in unpaid internships because white students have greater access to wealth.

Some recent efforts to ensure pay for interns have been successful, such as a six-year grassroots campaign to ensure the White House pays its interns.

Step 3: Put Your Current Emotions Into Perspective

As previously noted, tough decisions heighten our emotions, which compels us to avoid change. Our bias towards the status quo tempts us to choose whichever option minimizes loss and change—even if change is what we most need.

To overcome status quo bias, the authors argue that we shouldn’t disregard the current emotions that drive us to seek comfort in the status quo. Instead, we should put those emotions into perspective by looking outside ourselves and beyond the present. In this section, we’ll share several strategies for doing so.

Mindfulness for Managing Emotions

Research in psychology supports the authors’ claim that we shouldn’t disregard our emotions. In fact, doing so harms both our mental and physical health.

One way to manage, rather than disregard, heightened emotions is to practice a well-known mindfulness technique called RAIN:

• Recognize: Acknowledge what you’re feeling by naming your emotions.

• Allow: Let yourself feel your emotions, and don’t try to change them.

• Investigate: Ask yourself where in your body you feel those emotions and why you might be feeling them.

• Non-Identification: Remember that your emotions are real, but they don’t define you.

Strategy 1: Imagine What Someone Else Would Do

One strategy for putting your current emotions into perspective is to imagine the point of view of someone else who’s not experiencing the same strong emotions. The authors claim that this strategy allows you to more rationally and objectively see the decision’s important facets. You might then recognize the value of disrupting the status quo and seeking beneficial change. For any kind of decision, ask yourself, “If my friend or colleague was in this situation, what decision would they make, and why?”

(Shortform note: Since the release of Decisive, new research has suggested that we’re often wrong when we simply imagine what others think. For example, one study found that we better predict another person’s thoughts when we talk to them versus when we simply imagine what they think. However, there may still be benefits to imagining someone else’s perspective as a decision-making exercise, even if what we imagine is different from what they’d actually do. Recent research suggests that when we imagine someone else’s perspective, we improve our ability to generate creative and novel ideas.)

Strategy 2: Look Far Into the Future

A second way to put your emotions into perspective is to predict how you’ll feel about your decision at various points in the future. The authors state that we make better decisions when we give additional weight to our future feelings. When we consider how we’ll feel in the future, we’re more likely to welcome a change in the status quo.

One technique the authors recommend is the “10/10/10 test,” created by business writer Suzy Welch. First, select one of your options. Then, ask yourself, “If I chose this option, how would I feel about my decision 10 minutes, 10 months, and 10 years after I made it?” If you determine that you’d feel positively about that option at all three points in the future, it’s a strong option.

Is it Possible to Accurately Predict Future Feelings?

Experts have differing opinions about how accurately we can predict our future feelings. In Stumbling On Happiness, psychologist Daniel Gilbert argues that it’s futile to do this because your present emotions determine how you think you’ll feel in the future. He’d likely claim that a test like the 10/10/10 test will only reflect your current state of mind, rather than tell you something new about your future state of mind.

However, whether or not it’s possible to accurately predict future feelings, Annie Duke, author of Thinking in Bets, argues that imagining the future can still positively impact decision-making. She claims that by remembering past decisions and imagining future outcomes, we better manage our emotions and make more rational decisions. She calls this strategy “mental time travel.”

Strategy 3: Clarify Your Values

In some cases, it may not help to imagine someone else’s perspective or look far into the future. Even after trying these strategies, the decision may continue to be emotionally fraught. The authors share that when a decision is still emotionally fraught, it’s a sign that it may be a choice between one or more of your values. They claim that the best way to work through a decision that concerns multiple values is to clarify which of those values are most important to you.

The Relationship Between Cultural Values and Decision-Making

When clarifying your values, consider how the values that impact your decision may be culturally rooted. Research reveals that our cultural background influences whether we look inward or outward when we make emotionally fraught decisions. If your culture values individuality, you may make decisions by looking inward and determining your own wants and needs. By contrast, if your culture values collectivity, you may look outward and make choices based on what others expect of you.

We can learn from both approaches. When you clarify your values for an emotionally-fraught decision, notice if you find yourself looking inward or outward. If this approach isn’t serving you, or if it isn’t helping you to manage your emotions and make a decision, consider taking the opposite approach.

One value-clarifying technique that the authors recommend is a “stop doing list.” Business consultant Jim Collins created this technique.

• First, imagine receiving two phone calls: one telling you that you’ve been given 20 million dollars, and another sharing that you’ll die in 10 years.
• Next, ask yourself: What do you want to spend more time doing to make those last 10 years meaningful? What do you need to stop doing to make that possible?
• Finally, the Heath brothers add another step: Look at your schedule and remove everything you decided you want to stop doing. What you leave behind reflects what you value most, and what you cut reflects what you don’t value as much.

Use Satisficing to Make Values-Oriented Decisions

Jim Collins’s stop-doing list and the Heath brothers’ addition prompt us to ponder what we value most and identify ways that we’re wasting our time. But it’s possible that after these exercises, we’ll still be left with a list of multiple values. For the purposes of decision-making, how can we prioritize these remaining values?

Psychologist Barry Schwartz, author of The Paradox of Choice, offers advice: Don’t expect you’ll find the perfect answer, and don’t overthink it. For a decision that concerns a choice between multiple important values, there may be no best choice. He recommends a decision-making strategy called satisficing: choosing an option that’s satisfactory, rather than perfect. His research shows that maximizers—people who take time deeply considering every possibility until they find the best one—are often more unhappy with their decisions.

Let’s put the authors’ strategies and Schwartz’s advice into a real-world context. Imagine a person is deciding whether she wants to continue living in the city or move to the country. She sees herself as a “country person” at heart. But she also identifies as LGBTQA+, and there’s a larger queer community in the city. After making her “stop doing list” and analyzing her calendar, she finds that she equally values time in the country and time in community with other queer people.

If she were to approach her decision as a maximizer, she may spend years searching for the perfect country town that also has a vibrant queer community—a search that may or may not yield any results. If she approaches her decision as a satisficer, she may miss out on living in that perfect town. But by making a choice, she can end the stress of deciding—and move on to brainstorming how to make that choice great.

Step 4: Prepare for Future Outcomes With Humility

After you’ve made a choice, the decision-making process isn’t necessarily over. The authors claim that after you make a decision, you can take action to increase the odds that your decision will succeed.

As previously stated, our hubris makes us overconfident in our predictions for the future, which causes us to poorly prepare for the decision’s outcomes. The authors argue that we can overcome our hubris with humility, and increase the likelihood that our decision will succeed, by:

• accepting that we can’t predict the future
• instead, preparing for a range of possible outcomes

In this section, we’ll share several strategies for doing so.

Strategy 1: Make Contingency Plans

The authors share that one way to plan with humility is to prepare for both best-case and worst-case scenarios. By planning for both types of scenarios, we ensure that the worst-case scenario won’t be devastating and that we’ll be more prepared for the success of the best-case scenario.

For example, consider a woman who decides to quit her job and open a food truck. First, she imagines a worst-case scenario and makes a plan for it.

• Worst-case scenario: An accident totals her food truck.
• Plan: She guards against this outcome by purchasing insurance.

Next, she imagines a best-case scenario and makes a plan to be ready for it.

• Best-case scenario: A food critic’s rave review doubles her number of customers.
• Plan: She contacts several friends who work in food service. She tells them that if her demand starts to double, she’ll offer them a job to join her in the kitchen.

(Shortform note: This strategy is similar to Annie Duke’s technique of “scenario planning:'' an exercise in which you imagine every potential outcome of your decision. Duke adds a step, however: After you imagine each outcome, estimate its likelihood. Duke claims that this exercise helps you make a more rational decision. In contrast to the Heath brothers’ strategy, Duke intends for scenario planning to happen before the decision is made. Therefore, these two strategies could both be worked into a decision-making process: Scenario planning could serve as a tool to inform a decision, and the Heath brothers’ contingency planning strategy could serve as a tool to prepare for its outcomes.)

Strategy 2: Prepare for the Unexpected

When it’s challenging to accurately predict a decision’s worst-case outcomes, we can still prepare for the unforeseeable. The authors argue that even though our hubris will cause us to underestimate the worst-case scenario, we can negate that hubris by working “safety factors” into our predictive calculations. A safety factor is a cushion we can add to our prediction of the worst-case scenario. If it turns out that the worst-case scenario was too optimistic, then the safety factor helps us avoid disaster.

For instance, imagine that the food truck owner estimates her business expenses. She multiplies those estimated expenses by a safety factor of 1.5. That way, if it turns out her estimate fails to account for unexpected costs, she avoids draining her bank account.

(Shortform note: The Heath brothers present their safety factor strategy as a way to avoid worst-case scenarios, like a “rainy day fund.” If you’re someone who’s motivated by positive incentives, you could reframe this strategy as a “sunny day fund.” For example, consider the cushion budget that the food truck owner calculates by multiplying her estimated budget by a safety factor of 1.5. She could motivate herself to save the money by making this a “sunny day fund”: telling herself that if she doesn’t use this budget, she can spend it on something else, such as a vacation.)

Strategy 3: Create an Alert

A final step we can take to prepare for future outcomes is to ensure that we act early if we notice any signs that our decision is headed towards a negative outcome. Our hubris may tempt us to ignore these signs, so the authors recommend that we humbly assume our decision will have negative outcomes. They advise us to proactively create an alert: a reminder for us to act that fires in response to early signs of a negative outcome. Alerts ensure that we recognize when it’s time to follow up our decision with another decision that steers us off the path toward a negative outcome.

(Shortform note: The authors’ discussion of alerts, and the way that alerts trigger a new decision, implies that decision-making has cyclical nature: The outcomes of a decision create the circumstances for the next decision.)

One type of alert that the authors offer is a deadline. After you make a decision, choose a date in the near future. When that date arrives, evaluate the success of your decision so far and determine whether you need to change course.

(Shortform note: A deadline alert is a chance to reflect upon your decision at a predetermined time. Annie Duke recommends that when we reflect upon a decision’s outcomes, we distinguish between outcomes caused by luck and outcomes caused by skill. That way, we notice and continue behaviors that contributed to success, notice and stop behaviors that led to failure, and acknowledge moments of luck or unluckiness that were out of our control.)

Another type of alert that the authors offer is a pattern. After you make a decision, list several possible warning signs that the decision is headed towards a negative outcome. If you notice a pattern of more than one warning sign, it’s a signal that you need to either re-evaluate your decision or follow it up with another one.

For example, imagine a teacher in a classroom that has several students who are new to the school. He wants to ensure that they’re integrating well with their peers, and he determines that sitting alone at lunch would be a sign of poor integration. Each day, he observes the students eating. If he ever notices that a student sits alone more than two times, this pattern alerts him to decide how to better support them.

(Shortform note: Because confirmation bias makes us see what we want to see, it’s possible that we may not notice warning signs that our decision is headed towards a negative outcome. When setting a pattern-style alert, consider enlisting the help of a friend, colleague, or family member who can help you notice warning signs and shake you out of your confirmation bias.)

Alerts Help to Counter Passive Living

As well as helping you to counteract hubris, alerts help you overcome another issue that the Heath brothers highlight: passive living. This is when you proceed through life without actively reflecting on your daily behavior. The authors argue that when we live passively, we often fail to recognize opportunities to follow up on our decisions. An alert helps us recognize these opportunities.

For example, consider someone who decides to buy a car. Not long after this decision, they slip into passive living and fail to notice the car’s gradual deterioration. It may not occur to them that they should decide to get a tune-up or purchase a new one in better condition.

(Shortform note: Why do we tend to live passively? Daniel Kahneman’s research in Thinking, Fast and Slow reveals that our brain sometimes employs heuristics: automatic shortcuts for processing information. This part of our brain allows us to make intuitive, efficient judgments, which can be useful in many situations (such as reading signs on bathroom doors to determine which one to enter). Kahneman argues that we make poor decisions when we act upon these instincts without questioning them: in other words, when we passively allow them to rule our lives.)

The Popularity of Books on Choice and Decision-Making

Decisive is one of many books on the topic of decision-making that’s been published in the past several decades. Why is decision-making such a popular topic, especially in the United States?

It’s possible that this popularity reflects the value that American culture places on choice. One psychologist argues that the US value of choice dates back to the United States’ founding. During this time, several prominent thinkers influenced American values around choice: For example, economist Adam Smith proposed the idea that individual self-interest drives economic growth, and Ralph Waldo Emerson’s ideas about self-reliance encouraged people to value individual choice over conformity. Choice and independence continue to be cornerstones of American culture that the U.S. government articulates in official documents today.