{"id":98999,"date":"2023-04-03T13:47:00","date_gmt":"2023-04-03T17:47:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/?p=98999"},"modified":"2023-04-13T09:12:15","modified_gmt":"2023-04-13T13:12:15","slug":"reliance-on-fossil-fuels","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/reliance-on-fossil-fuels\/","title":{"rendered":"Reliance on Fossil Fuels\u2014Why Carbon Neutrality Is Pie in the Sky"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Is carbon neutrality a realistic goal? What would it take to get there?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As we look for solutions to climate change, the elimination of carbon emissions seems to be near the top of everyone&#8217;s list. However, this is not a practical solution, at least for now. That&#8217;s the view of former energy industry scientist Steven E. Koonin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Read on to learn why Koonin believes we must accept the reality of our reliance on fossil fuels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-our-reliance-on-fossil-fuels\">Our Reliance on Fossil Fuels<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>As Koonin notes, one straightforward response to climate change involves eliminating carbon emissions altogether. Indeed, the IPCC claims this response is actually <em>necessary <\/em>to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement\u2014<a href=\"https:\/\/unfccc.int\/process-and-meetings\/the-paris-agreement\/the-paris-agreement?gclid=CjwKCAiAxP2eBhBiEiwA5puhNQ4VeDqYzDEuxnGMP17BT0xNAHZDKucP8uAGFrEYfT0ymtxyZqiWRRoC2_4QAvD_BwE\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">an international climate accord among 196 nations<\/a> that aims to keep warming below 2\u00b0C by 2100. Koonin, however, argues that <strong>eliminating carbon emissions by 2100 is practically impossible<\/strong> because growing energy demands (requiring our further reliance on fossil fuels) preclude such a radical overhaul of the energy system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>(Shortform note: The Paris Agreement is unlikely to meet its main goals. First, the UN\u2019s own climate scientists reported that <a href=\"https:\/\/unfccc.int\/news\/climate-commitments-not-on-track-to-meet-paris-agreement-goals-as-ndc-synthesis-report-is-published\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">the Paris Agreement won\u2019t keep global warming below 2\u00b0C<\/a> by 2100, even if all participating countries keep their promises. Moreover, though wealthy members of the Paris Agreement promised to raise $100 billion by 2020 to establish a climate fund for impoverished countries, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/d41586-021-02846-3\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">that goal was also not met<\/a>.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To make his argument, Koonin first cites projections that worldwide energy demands will increase by 50% by 2050. Moreover, fossil fuels are still projected to account for 70% of global energy by 2050. Because fossil fuels\u2014which emit CO<sub>2 <\/sub>when burned\u2014are expected to play a crucial role in fulfilling these energy needs, Koonin reasons that <strong>eliminating CO<\/strong><strong><sub>2<\/sub><\/strong><strong> emissions altogether would require transforming the energy system<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>(Shortform note: Experts estimate that, at our current rate of clean energy expansion, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyreview.com\/2018\/03\/14\/67154\/at-this-rate-its-going-to-take-nearly-400-years-to-transform-the-energy-system\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">it would take about 400 years<\/a> to develop an energy system capable of keeping global warming below 2\u00b0C. Given some estimates that <a href=\"https:\/\/press.un.org\/en\/2019\/ga12131.doc.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">we only have until 2030 to avert climate catastrophe<\/a>, however, overhauling the energy system in 400 years is likely far too late.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Next, he argues that such an overhaul would require emissions constraints that are enforced worldwide; otherwise, high-emissions activities would relocate to areas that lack these constraints. However, this would require impoverished countries to voluntarily stunt their growth by forswearing much-needed emissions\u2014emissions that could otherwise help address pressing problems like housing, transportation, and water sanitation.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So, given the degree of self-sacrifice required, Koonin concludes that a globally coordinated effort to eliminate carbon emissions is unlikely to occur. Rather, he claims that fossil fuels will continue to play a pivotal role in meeting our energy needs for the foreseeable future, making the transition to carbon neutrality impossible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>(Shortform note: In <a href=\"https:\/\/shortform.com\/app\/book\/false-alarm\/1-page-summary\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em>False Alarm<\/em><\/a>, Lomborg likewise claims that developing countries are unlikely to switch to clean energy, given the costs to their economies. Consequently, he argues that <a href=\"https:\/\/shortform.com\/app\/book\/false-alarm\/1-page-summary#cultivate-economic-growth\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">stimulating economic growth in these countries<\/a> is <em>itself <\/em>an important climate policy\u2014for instance, by funding schools that teach marketable skills and opening up markets to international trade.)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Is carbon neutrality a realistic goal? What would it take to get there? As we look for solutions to climate change, the elimination of carbon emissions seems to be near the top of everyone&#8217;s list. However, this is not a practical solution, at least for now. That&#8217;s the view of former energy industry scientist Steven E. Koonin. Read on to learn why Koonin believes we must accept the reality of our reliance on fossil fuels.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":78040,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[81,160,24],"tags":[976],"class_list":["post-98999","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economics","category-science","category-society","tag-unsettled","","tg-column-two"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.3 (Yoast SEO v24.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Reliance on Fossil Fuels\u2014Why Carbon Neutrality Is Pie in the Sky - Shortform Books<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Fossil fuels will continue to help us fulfill energy demands. 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Learn how our reliance on fossil fuels makes carbon neutrality impossible.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/reliance-on-fossil-fuels\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Shortform Books\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-04-03T17:47:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-04-13T13:12:15+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/s3.amazonaws.com\/wordpress.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/global-warming-carbon-dioxide-co2.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1920\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1080\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Elizabeth Whitworth\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Elizabeth Whitworth\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/reliance-on-fossil-fuels\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/reliance-on-fossil-fuels\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Elizabeth Whitworth\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/d2928cf6c11a69ced1491d6a5b74fb13\"},\"headline\":\"Reliance on Fossil Fuels\u2014Why Carbon Neutrality Is Pie in the Sky\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-04-03T17:47:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-04-13T13:12:15+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/reliance-on-fossil-fuels\/\"},\"wordCount\":516,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/reliance-on-fossil-fuels\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/global-warming-carbon-dioxide-co2.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Unsettled\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Economics\",\"Science\",\"Society\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/reliance-on-fossil-fuels\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/reliance-on-fossil-fuels\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/reliance-on-fossil-fuels\/\",\"name\":\"Reliance on Fossil Fuels\u2014Why Carbon Neutrality Is Pie in the Sky - Shortform Books\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/reliance-on-fossil-fuels\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/reliance-on-fossil-fuels\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/global-warming-carbon-dioxide-co2.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-04-03T17:47:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-04-13T13:12:15+00:00\",\"description\":\"Fossil fuels will continue to help us fulfill energy demands. 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