{"id":98830,"date":"2023-04-08T17:11:00","date_gmt":"2023-04-08T21:11:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/?p=98830"},"modified":"2023-04-13T09:12:25","modified_gmt":"2023-04-13T13:12:25","slug":"is-the-weather-getting-more-extreme","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/is-the-weather-getting-more-extreme\/","title":{"rendered":"Is the Weather Getting More Extreme? What the Trend Reveals"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Is the weather getting more extreme? What’s the actual long-term trend?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Former energy industry scientist Steven E. Koonin claims that public misconceptions about human-induced climate change are common. One of these misconceptions is that manmade climate change<\/a> is causing extreme weather.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let’s take a look at Koonin’s argument and see what the evidence is.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

Extreme Weather<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Is the weather getting more extreme? According to Koonin, climate activists portray bouts of extreme weather as the result of human-induced climate change. However, upon examining the data on record temperatures, hurricanes, flooding, and droughts, Koonin concludes that there\u2019s no long-term trend of weather becoming more extreme.<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

To begin, Koonin disputes the US government\u2019s 2017 Climate Science Special Report<\/a> (CCSR), which claimed that record-high temperatures<\/a> outpaced record-low temperatures in the last 20 years, indicating an increased frequency of record highs. Koonin found that the CSSR relied on so-called \u201crunning records\u201d that counted a \u201crecord\u201d whenever the temperature was higher than the previous high on record<\/em>. So, initial years frequently recorded \u201crecord highs\u201d while later years experienced fewer, as they had more years to compete with. In turn, both <\/em>record highs and record lows become less frequent over time, as records became harder to set. Consequently, the claim that record highs were more frequent than record lows was only true in a relative sense, as record lows were occurring even less frequently than record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

(Shortform note: The CSSR\u2019s authors, not the original researchers who published them, are responsible for any misrepresentation of these running records. While the CSSR used the running records to argue that record highs are becoming more frequent, the original authors did not. Rather, they cited these running records as evidence of a warming climate in general<\/a>\u2014not of extreme heat<\/a> in particular.) <\/p>\n\n\n\n

To deliver more accurate results, Koonin compiled data illustrating the frequency of absolute <\/em>high and low temperatures, which are simply the highest or lowest temperatures over the entire timespan. Using this data, he found no discernible trend in record-high temperatures since 1900, though record-low temperatures became less <\/em>frequent. So, the CSSR\u2019s claim about record high temperatures was at best misleading<\/strong>, if not outright false, according to Koonin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

(Shortform note: Although absolute record high temperatures aren\u2019t becoming more frequent in the US, that doesn\u2019t mean that extreme heat isn\u2019t getting worse. After all, research indicates that heat waves\u2014sustained periods of abnormally high temperatures\u2014are <\/em>becoming more frequent in American cities<\/a>, as they only occurred twice annually in the 1960s, compared to six times annually in the 2020s. So, Koonin may be too quick in dismissing any trend toward extreme heat on the basis of record temperatures alone.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a similar vein, Koonin criticizes the US government\u2019s 2014 National Climate Assessment<\/a> (NCA), which reports that the intensity and frequency of North Atlantic hurricanes has been increasing since the 1980s. Once again, Koonin finds that this claim is misleading\u2014upon examining the data on North Atlantic hurricanes dating back further to the 1940s, he says there\u2019s no discernible long-term trend. In fact, any slight increase in hurricane activity from 1985 to 2010 is offset by a similar decrease from 1965 to 1985.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Indeed, Koonin notes that the IPCC\u2019s fifth assessment report<\/a> (AR5) confirms this result: In 2013, it reported low confidence in any long-term increase in hurricane activity. By extension, Koonin concludes there\u2019s no evidence suggesting humans <\/em>are responsible for an increase in hurricane activity<\/strong>\u2014after all, we can\u2019t be responsible for a trend that doesn\u2019t exist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

(Shortform note: Recent findings from the IPCC\u2019s sixth assessment report, AR6, tell a slightly different story from AR5: With respect to Atlantic hurricane activity in particular, AR6 reported with medium confidence that human activity has been partially responsible for increased hurricane activity<\/a> since the 1970s.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, Koonin also questions a related pair of weather phenomena: floods and droughts. As for floods, Koonin asserts that the IPCC\u2019s AR5 reported low confidence in any global trends regarding the magnitude and frequency of floods. So, according to the UN\u2019s own climate scientists, we aren\u2019t sure whether floods are increasing globally. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

As for droughts, AR5 echoes the same sentiment: There\u2019s little evidence that droughts are becoming more prevalent worldwide since the 1950s. Koonin notes that the same is true in the US specifically, as average drought conditions have shown no discernible trend since 1890.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

(Shortform note: Since Unsettled<\/em>\u2019s publication in 2021, the UN has changed its analysis of droughts; in 2022, it reported that droughts had grown more severe and frequent worldwide since 2000<\/a>. The report warns that, in the coming decades, dozens of countries will face increased drought related to population growth and climate change.)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Is the weather getting more extreme? What’s the actual long-term trend? Former energy industry scientist Steven E. Koonin claims that public misconceptions about human-induced climate change are common. One of these misconceptions is that manmade climate change is causing extreme weather. Let’s take a look at Koonin’s argument and see what the evidence is.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":11710,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[160],"tags":[976],"class_list":["post-98830","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-science","tag-unsettled","","tg-column-two"],"yoast_head":"\nIs the Weather Getting More Extreme? What the Trend Reveals - Shortform Books<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Is the weather getting more extreme? 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