{"id":98815,"date":"2023-04-10T16:39:00","date_gmt":"2023-04-10T20:39:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/?p=98815"},"modified":"2023-04-13T09:12:29","modified_gmt":"2023-04-13T13:12:29","slug":"do-humans-cause-climate-change","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/do-humans-cause-climate-change\/","title":{"rendered":"Do Humans Cause Climate Change? The Question Is How Much"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Do humans cause climate change? If so, to what extent? What’s the evidence?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steven E. Koonin argues that the human impact on the climate is relatively small. He shows this with his analysis of greenhouse gases and aerosols released into the atmosphere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Continue reading to learn about Koonin’s findings and conclusions about manmade climate change<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

Do Humans Cause Climate Change?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Do humans cause climate change? While Koonin agrees with the mainstream view about the extent <\/em>of recent global warming, he disagrees when it comes to the cause <\/em>of this recent warming. In particular, he contends that the scientific evidence doesn\u2019t conclusively establish the extent of manmade climate change<\/strong>, though best estimates suggest it\u2019s relatively small.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

(Shortform note: Though Koonin claims he\u2019s going against the grain of mainstream climate science<\/a> with this contention, one critic suggests that he\u2019s committing a strawman fallacy<\/a> in not clarifying that climate scientists themselves agree that certain aspects of climate science\u2014including the exact extent of human influence\u2014are unsettled.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To defend this assertion, Koonin points out that the Earth has historically experienced significant changes in average surface temperature anomalies. For example, the last million years have featured cycles of quick warming followed by gradual cooling. So, the causes must have been natural because the cycles occurred long before humans began impacting the climate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Consequently, Koonin infers that we can\u2019t rule out the possibility that <\/strong>recent<\/em><\/strong> warming is also partially due to natural causes<\/strong>. At the very least, he argues we must carefully consider the evidence to see whether\u2014or to what extent\u2014we\u2019ve contributed to rising temperatures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Koonin suggests that, when we do so, we\u2019ll find that our impact on the climate is relatively small. To show as much, he analyzes this impact in two ways: 1) the extent to which we\u2019ve caused the climate to warm<\/em> by increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and 2) the extent to which we\u2019ve caused it to cool <\/em>by inserting reflective aerosols into the atmosphere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Milankovitch Cycles: The Primary Driver of Historical Climate Change Cycles<\/strong>

Some experts maintain that historical cycles<\/a> of climate change were primarily driven by the Milankovitch cycles\u2014long-term variations in the Earth\u2019s orbit<\/a> that affect where solar radiation is distributed on Earth\u2019s surface. These orbital variations include the direction of the Earth\u2019s rotation, the shape of the Earth\u2019s orbit, and the angle of the Earth\u2019s axis relative to its orbit.

According to scientists, the changes in solar radiation themselves don\u2019t directly cause climate change<\/a>, however. Rather, these changes cause other shifts that in turn affect the climate\u2014for example, melting ice, which makes the earth less reflective, and warming the ocean so that it releases more CO2<\/sub>. So, the Milankovitch cycles indirectly caused cyclical climate change.

Nonetheless, experts caution that the Milankovitch cycles can\u2019t explain recent <\/em>warming<\/a>, since the Industrial Revolution<\/a>, because its effects stretch over longer timespans\u2014tens of thousands of years, rather than hundreds. Thus, although the Milankovitch cycles show that natural causes can <\/em>lead to long-term climate change, they\u2019re not a valid explanation of recent climate change. <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Impact #1: How Greenhouse Gases Cause Global Warming<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

First, Koonin acknowledges that we\u2019re responsible for increasing greenhouse gases<\/strong> in the Earth\u2019s atmosphere<\/strong>, which warm the climate. He clarifies that greenhouse gases\u2014like CO2<\/sub>, methane, water vapor, and ozone\u2014work by intercepting heat in the atmosphere, causing it to return to the earth and increase surface temperature. So, because we burn fossil fuels for energy that release CO2 <\/sub>into the atmosphere, we contribute to CO2 <\/sub>in the atmosphere. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

(Shortform note: CO2 <\/sub>is the dominant greenhouse gas emitted in the US, constituting over 80% of nationwide greenhouse gas emissions<\/a>. Methane, the second most-emitted greenhouse gas, is responsible for about 11% of US greenhouse gas emissions.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This higher concentration of CO2 <\/sub> in turn traps more heat at the Earth\u2019s surface. Koonin cites data that the CO2 <\/sub>concentration increased from 280 parts per million (ppm) in 1750, to 410 ppm in 2019. Consequently, this increased concentration in CO2<\/sub> has increased the percent of heat intercepted from 82.1% to 82.7%. Moreover, Koonin cites projections that, if the CO2 <\/sub>concentration were to reach 560 ppm, the percent of heat intercepted would increase to 83.2%, over 1% higher than in 1750. The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that this would raise Earth\u2019s average surface temperature by about 3\u00b0C (5.5\u00b0F).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Impact #2: How Aerosols Offset Global Warming<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, Koonin points out that other human practices actually result in the climate becoming cooler<\/em><\/strong>, which helps offset the warming from greenhouse gases. In particular, burning coal often creates aerosols\u2014minuscule particles in the atmosphere<\/a>\u2014that are reflective, and thus have a cooling effect on the globe by reflecting sunlight back into the atmosphere, away from the Earth\u2019s surface. Moreover, Koonin argues that human practices like deforestation make the globe more reflective, leading to lower temperatures. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

(Shortform note: While aerosols are released into the atmosphere when we burn fossil fuels like coal, they\u2019re also released when we burn biomass<\/a>\u2014such as wood and certain plants. Moreover, aerosols can be released through natural processes; marine plankton, for example, secretes molecules that are eventually emitted as aerosols<\/a>.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to Koonin, these cooling factors offset about half of the warming influence from our carbon emissions. However, he also argues that, although climate scientists understand the warming impact of CO2 <\/sub>to a precise degree, they\u2019re much less certain about the exact cooling impact of aerosols. For this reason, our best estimates hold that, of the 239 watts per square meter (W\/m2<\/sup>) of energy (which radiates heat) flowing throughout the earth\u2019s surface, humans are currently responsible for somewhere between 1.1 and 3.3 W\/m2<\/sup><\/strong>. In other words, because aerosols offset much of the warming effect of CO2<\/sub>, humans are only responsible for about 1% of the energy in the climate system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

(Shortform note: Estimates of the energy in the climate system that humans are responsible for differ slightly. For instance, other studies report that humans are responsible for about 2.6 W\/m2<\/sup> <\/sub>of energy<\/a>, slightly higher than Koonin\u2019s estimate. Nonetheless, Koonin\u2019s estimate of between 1.1 and 3.3 W\/m2<\/sup> falls well within <\/strong>the scientific consensus.)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Do humans cause climate change? If so, to what extent? What’s the evidence? Steven E. Koonin argues that the human impact on the climate is relatively small. He shows this with his analysis of greenhouse gases and aerosols released into the atmosphere. Continue reading to learn about Koonin’s findings and conclusions about manmade climate change.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":78059,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[160,24],"tags":[976],"class_list":["post-98815","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-science","category-society","tag-unsettled","","tg-column-two"],"yoast_head":"\nDo Humans Cause Climate Change? The Question Is How Much - Shortform Books<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Do humans cause climate change? 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