{"id":90781,"date":"2023-02-05T06:23:00","date_gmt":"2023-02-05T10:23:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/?p=90781"},"modified":"2023-02-14T16:54:01","modified_gmt":"2023-02-14T20:54:01","slug":"why-invest-in-index-funds-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/why-invest-in-index-funds-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Invest in Index Funds? They Outperform Mutual Funds"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/why-invest-in-index-funds\/\">Why invest in index funds<\/a> over mutual funds? Could mutual funds beat the market in the long run?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Only a tiny fraction of actively managed mutual funds will outperform index funds in the long run. This is because financial assets tend to converge to the average price over time\u2014a statistical tendency called &#8220;reversion to the mean.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here&#8217;s what <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/regression-toward-the-mean\/\">reversion to the mean<\/a> means for mutual fund investors. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-why-mutual-funds-will-never-outperform-index-funds\">Why Mutual Funds Will Never Outperform Index Funds<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Why <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/should-you-invest-in-index-funds\/\">invest in index funds<\/a>? According to Jack Bogle, the author of <em>The Little <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/common-sense-pamphlet\/\">Common Sense<\/a> Book of Investing<\/em>, few mutual funds outperform index funds over time because of <em>reversion to the mean<\/em>. Because of reversion to the mean, <strong>mutual funds that initially outperform index funds are likely to see returns drop below index funds\u2019 returns<\/strong> in the long run.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>(Shortform note: Because index funds closely match market-average returns, as Bogle notes, they don\u2019t suffer from reversion to the mean relative to the entire market. Rather, their returns remain nearly identical to market averages.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For example, imagine that you flip a coin five times and it lands on heads four times\u201480% of the time. While this result is unsurprising in the short term, if you kept flipping the coin\u2014say, 100 times\u2014you\u2019d expect the frequency to level out to about 50%.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Similarly, while a sizable percentage of mutual funds can beat index funds in the short term, few mutual funds can sustain this performance for the long term. Just like you shouldn\u2019t expect a coin to keep landing on heads 80% of the time, the Monte Carlo simulation shows that you shouldn\u2019t expect mutual funds to keep outperforming index funds in the long run.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Why We Fail to Grasp Reversion to the Mean<\/strong><br><br>In <a href=\"https:\/\/shortform.com\/app\/book\/thinking-fast-and-slow\/1-page-summary\"><em>Thinking, Fast and Slow<\/em><\/a>, Daniel Kahneman illuminates one reason why many investors overlook reversion to the mean\u2014to the detriment of their returns. He argues that our minds are predisposed to seek patterns, <a href=\"https:\/\/shortform.com\/app\/book\/thinking-fast-and-slow\/part-2#a-misunderstanding-of-randomness\">even amidst total randomness<\/a>. For example, individuals playing roulette might commit the <a href=\"https:\/\/thedecisionlab.com\/biases\/gamblers-fallacy\">gambler\u2019s fallacy,<\/a> concluding that the ball is more likely to land on red after landing on black several times in a row. Although the distribution of reds versus blacks isn\u2019t actually governed by any pattern, we attempt to find patterns nonetheless.<br><br>In a similar vein, when we witness a case of reversion to the mean\u2014for instance, when a mutual fund thrives during one quarter and flounders during the next\u2014Kahneman claims that <a href=\"https:\/\/shortform.com\/app\/book\/thinking-fast-and-slow\/part-2#a-misunderstanding-of-randomness\">we\u2019re inclined to look for causal explanations of this variance<\/a>. In fact, however, this variance is often the product of statistical randomness. Consequently, any attempts to explain particular instances of reversion to the mean will be unsuccessful.<br><br>With respect to investing, this pattern-seeking tendency explains why many investors select mutual funds on the basis of past performance. However, research indicates that <a href=\"https:\/\/papers.ssrn.com\/sol3\/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3530678\">mutual funds\u2019 past performance is a poor indicator of future success<\/a>; rather, mutual funds that outperform one year are likely to revert to the mean in the long term. So, failure to grasp reversion to the mean actually harms our investment strategies.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Why invest in index funds over mutual funds? Could mutual funds beat the market in the long run? Only a tiny fraction of actively managed mutual funds will outperform index funds in the long run. This is because financial assets tend to converge to the average price over time\u2014a statistical tendency called &#8220;reversion to the mean.&#8221; Here&#8217;s what reversion to the mean means for mutual fund investors.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":23103,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[880],"class_list":["post-90781","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-money","tag-the-little-book-of-common-sense-investing","","tg-column-two"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.3 (Yoast SEO v24.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Why Invest in Index Funds? They Outperform Mutual Funds - Shortform Books<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Why invest in index funds over mutual funds? Only a tiny fraction of mutual funds will outperform index funds in the long run. Here&#039;s why.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/why-invest-in-index-funds-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Why Invest in Index Funds? They Outperform Mutual Funds\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Why invest in index funds over mutual funds? Only a tiny fraction of mutual funds will outperform index funds in the long run. Here&#039;s why.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/why-invest-in-index-funds-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Shortform Books\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-02-05T10:23:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-02-14T20:54:01+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/s3.amazonaws.com\/wordpress.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/stock-market-invest-investor-computer-graphic-metics-scaled.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2560\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1920\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Darya Sinusoid\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Darya Sinusoid\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/why-invest-in-index-funds-2\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/why-invest-in-index-funds-2\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Darya Sinusoid\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/0421cce75bc249b11e2517b3a91f9c46\"},\"headline\":\"Why Invest in Index Funds? 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