{"id":88632,"date":"2023-01-10T11:50:00","date_gmt":"2023-01-10T15:50:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/?p=88632"},"modified":"2023-01-17T17:11:18","modified_gmt":"2023-01-17T21:11:18","slug":"is-the-paris-agreement-effective","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/is-the-paris-agreement-effective\/","title":{"rendered":"Is the Paris Agreement Effective? How It Harms More Than Helps"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>What promise did countries make with the Paris Agreement? Is the Paris Agreement effective?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To spark the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/what-are-the-limitations-of-green-revolution\/\">green revolution<\/a>, world leaders took a more concrete approach to climate change via the Paris Agreement. However, Bjorn Lomborg argues that, if the goal is to achieve a meaningful and cost-effective reduction in global temperature, it&#8217;s a failure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Continue reading to see how Lomborg comes to this conclusion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-is-the-paris-agreement-effective\">Is the Paris Agreement Effective?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>With <a href=\"https:\/\/www.un.org\/en\/climatechange\/paris-agreement\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">the Paris Agreement<\/a>, participating countries promised to reduce carbon emissions, with a goal of limiting the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/how-much-has-the-earth-warmed\/\">global temperature increase<\/a> to 3.6\u00b0F by 2100. Is the Paris Agreement effective? Lomborg argues that <strong>it does more harm than good.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>(Shortform note: In light of concerns over the Paris Agreement, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2020\/11\/03\/930312701\/u-s-officially-leaving-paris-climate-agreement\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">U.S. withdrew from the agreement in 2020<\/a>, three years after President Donald Trump first announced his decision to withdraw in 2017. However, this absence was short-lived, as the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2021\/02\/19\/politics\/us-rejoins-paris-agreement-biden-administration\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">U.S. rejoined the climate accord<\/a> shortly after President Joe Biden\u2019s inauguration in 2021.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>First, Lomborg examines the four entities whose promised carbon reductions amount to 80% of the total reductions outlined in the Paris Agreement: the U.S., the EU, China, and Mexico. By using Stanford University\u2019s Energy Modeling Forum (EMF), Lomborg estimates the following costs if these countries keep their promises:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>The U.S.\u2019s promise to cut emissions by 26% by 2025 will cost between $154 and $172 billion annually.<\/li><li>The EU\u2019s promise to cut emissions by 40% by 2030 will cost $322 billion annually.<\/li><li>China\u2019s promise to reduce carbon intensity\u2014the percentage of carbon emitted per dollar in the economy\u2014by 60% by 2030 will cost $200 billion annually.<\/li><li>Mexico\u2019s promise to reduce 40% of carbon emissions by 2030 will cost $80 billion annually.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Collectively, this amounts to about $739 billion annually. Because these countries represent 80% of promised carbon reductions, Lomborg assumes that $739 billion is about 80% of the total annual cost of the Paris Agreement. So,<strong> its annual cost is around $1 trillion.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>(Shortform note: Lomborg also considers another assessment, where the Paris Agreement costs twice as much\u2014$2 trillion annually\u2014because countries implement inefficient climate policies. However, others have argued that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.lse.ac.uk\/granthaminstitute\/news\/a-closer-examination-of-the-fantastical-numbers-in-bjorn-lomborgs-new-book\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">it\u2019s illegitimate for Lomborg to simply double projections to strengthen his argument<\/a>. To avoid this criticism, we\u2019ll focus on his assessment of the model\u2019s actual predictions.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To see whether the benefits of the Paris Agreement justify the costs, Lomborg cites projections from the UN, which found that\u2014if countries all kept their promises\u2014there would be 64 fewer gigatons, or 64 billion fewer tons, of CO<sub>2<\/sub> in the atmosphere by 2030. Because the UN estimates that temperature will rise 0.8\u00b0F for every 1,000 gigatons, Lomborg reasons that <strong>the Paris Agreement could reduce global temperature by 0.05\u00b0F<\/strong><strong>.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If countries extended their commitments to 2100, however, Lomborg concedes that we would remove 540 gigatons of CO<sub>2<\/sub> from the atmosphere, causing a 0.4\u00b0F reduction in temperature. But, because the temperature is expected to rise 7.4\u00b0F by 2100, this reduction still means it would actually rise 7\u00b0F\u2014nowhere near the stated goal of 3.6\u00b0F.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>(Shortform note: Climate scientists from the UN generally agree that <a href=\"https:\/\/unfccc.int\/news\/climate-commitments-not-on-track-to-meet-paris-agreement-goals-as-ndc-synthesis-report-is-published\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">the Paris Agreement won\u2019t reach its goal of 3.6\u00b0F<\/a>, even if countries meet their promises. However, the UN\u2019s 2022 report disputes Lomborg\u2019s claim that temperatures will rise 7\u00b0F by 2100 under the Paris Agreement. Rather, the report found that <a href=\"https:\/\/unfccc.int\/documents\/619180\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">temperatures are expected to rise between 3.8\u00b0F and 5.2\u00b0F by 2100<\/a>. So, Lomborg\u2019s predictions aren\u2019t universally agreed upon.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Consequently, Lomborg concludes the Paris Agreement is ineffective;<strong> even if every country kept its promises, it would yield minuscule progress<\/strong>, while costing $1 trillion per year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What promise did countries make with the Paris Agreement? Is the Paris Agreement effective? To spark the green revolution, world leaders took a more concrete approach to climate change via the Paris Agreement. However, Bjorn Lomborg argues that, if the goal is to achieve a meaningful and cost-effective reduction in global temperature, it&#8217;s a failure. Continue reading to see how Lomborg comes to this conclusion.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":88636,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[81,275,160],"tags":[850],"class_list":["post-88632","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economics","category-politics","category-science","tag-false-alarm","","tg-column-two"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.3 (Yoast SEO v24.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Is the Paris Agreement Effective? 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