{"id":76380,"date":"2022-08-16T16:03:00","date_gmt":"2022-08-16T20:03:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/?p=76380"},"modified":"2022-08-24T09:13:19","modified_gmt":"2022-08-24T13:13:19","slug":"possibility-thinking","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/possibility-thinking\/","title":{"rendered":"Possibility Thinking: Using Thought Experiments to Make Decisions"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>What are thought experiments? How can you use them to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/make-better-decisions\/\">make better decisions<\/a>?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It can be fun to imagine what&#8217;s possible. You can actually harness this imagining to assist in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/methods-of-decision-making-crucial-conversations\/\">decision-making<\/a> and problem-solving. In <em>The Great <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/increase-focus\/\">Mental Models<\/a> Volume 1<\/em>, Shane Parrish and Rhiannon Beaubien discuss the mental model of possibility thinking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Continue reading to learn how to turn your imagination into productive thought experiments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-consider-the-possibilities\">Consider the Possibilities<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Considering the chances (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/probabilistic-thinking\/\">probabilistic thinking<\/a>) narrows what choices are worth pursuing, but some problems call for an inactive way of exploring what could happen. The authors say that, for problems that you can\u2019t test directly, thought experiments allow you to consider all of the possibilities. This is the great mental model of possibility thinking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/philosophical-thought-experiments\/\">thought experiment<\/a> is an imagined scenario or hypothetical situation that you test with your mind\u2019s eye. In other words, you <strong>use imagination to rigorously explore what\u2019s possible<\/strong>. This allows you to test things that would pose a problem in the real world, such as ethical questions involving significant harm or things that aren\u2019t even possible to test.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For instance, you might ask yourself, \u201cWhat would I do if I were given a button that would destroy half of all life on Earth, but would also permanently end suffering?\u201d By exploring possible answers to this question, you could reach insights about ethics, morality, and how to handle <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/making-hard-decisions\/\">difficult decisions<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>To run a thought experiment<\/strong>, the authors suggest that you start by formulating the question you want to explore and performing basic research to establish what\u2019s already known. Then, formulate a hypothesis to \u201ctest\u201d and run the thought experiment. Finally, reflect on what you found and whether to revise, change, or confirm your hypothesis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>The Trolley Dilemma<\/strong><br><br>While the above example riffs on the Marvel Cinematic Universe\u2019s use of the supervillain Thanos as a sort of thought experiment, real-world thought experiments have led to major scientific and philosophical advances. Thinkers as far back as <a href=\"https:\/\/plato.stanford.edu\/entries\/thought-experiment\/\">ancient Greece appeared to use thought experiments<\/a> in debate, and they continue to be used in various capacities today.&nbsp;<br><br>One famous thought experiment is \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/the-trolley-dilemma-would-you-kill-one-person-to-save-five-57111\">The Trolley Dilemma<\/a>.\u201d Originally developed in 1967 by philosopher Philippa Foot, it goes like this: Imagine you see a runaway trolley barrelling toward five unsuspecting workers. There is no time to warn the workers, no way to stop the trolley, and the collision will surely result in their deaths. You do, however, have a lever next to you that will switch the trolley onto another track\u2014on which there is one unsuspecting worker. What do you do? Do you stand by and allow fate to kill five innocent people? Or do you step in and become the direct cause of one person\u2019s death?&nbsp;<br><br>This experiment exemplifies the principles the authors discuss: We can use our imaginations to conceive of a scenario that would be dangerous or difficult to test as a way to engage in meaningful (and risk-free) <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/integrative-decision-making\/\">decision making<\/a>; in this case, concerning morality and ethics.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What are thought experiments? How can you use them to make better decisions? It can be fun to imagine what&#8217;s possible. You can actually harness this imagining to assist in decision-making and problem-solving. In The Great Mental Models Volume 1, Shane Parrish and Rhiannon Beaubien discuss the mental model of possibility thinking. Continue reading to learn how to turn your imagination into productive thought experiments.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":76384,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[42,43,30],"tags":[724],"class_list":["post-76380","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-motivation","category-self-improvement","category-work","tag-the-great-mental-models-volume-1","","tg-column-two"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.3 (Yoast SEO v24.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Possibility Thinking: Using Thought Experiments to Make Decisions - Shortform Books<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"You can turn your imagination into productive thought experiments. 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