{"id":76372,"date":"2022-08-14T15:19:00","date_gmt":"2022-08-14T19:19:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/?p=76372"},"modified":"2022-08-24T09:13:24","modified_gmt":"2022-08-24T13:13:24","slug":"what-is-second-order-thinking","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/what-is-second-order-thinking\/","title":{"rendered":"What Is Second-Order Thinking? Considering the Consequences"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>What is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/second-order-thinking\/\">second-order thinking<\/a>? How can it help you <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/make-better-decisions\/\">make better decisions<\/a>?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Because we live and act within large, interconnected systems\u2014such as our workplaces or professional communities\u2014our actions have consequences that ripple outward. Since anything you do has downstream effects, you should consider the immediate and secondary effects of any choice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Read more to learn how to use second-order thinking to everyone&#8217;s advantage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-second-order-thinking-explained\">Second-Order Thinking, Explained<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>What is second-order thinking? According to the authors, many decisions that have immediate positive results have negative consequences down the road. By thinking ahead, you can predict and prevent unwanted outcomes. For example, a struggling business might take on investors to help keep the company running in the short term, but down the road, those same investors might make demands that sacrifice the company\u2019s authentic mission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>(Shortform note: For a real-world example, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/film\/2012\/aug\/26\/lawless-prohibition-gangsters-speakeasies\">consider Prohibition, the 1920s attempt to ban alcohol in the United States<\/a>. Lawmakers <em>didn\u2019t<\/em> consider the second-order consequences of the ban and, as a result, speakeasies and mob rackets flourished. Al Capone and others made their fortunes smuggling alcohol in from Canada and underground distilleries, and many lost their lives as a result of the ban. In hindsight, it seems obvious that people weren\u2019t going to stop drinking\u2014but hindsight is 20\/20, and the lawmakers evidently lacked this mental model.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The authors describe two lessons you can learn by using second-order thinking:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Lesson #1: Short-term benefits often have long-term consequences.<\/strong><strong> <\/strong>Immediately gratifying actions often have cascading consequences that lead to poor outcomes. The authors contend that seeing this helps you make better decisions now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>(Shortform note: While the authors assert that being able to predict long-term effects helps you make better decisions, this may not hold true. In practice, <a href=\"https:\/\/bigthink.com\/personal-growth\/decisions-are-emotional-not-logical-the-neuroscience-behind-decision-making\/\">we often choose based on emotion rather than reason<\/a>. In <a href=\"https:\/\/shortform.com\/app\/book\/money-master-the-game\/1-page-summary\"><em>Money: Master the Game<\/em><\/a>, Tony Robbins explains that <a href=\"https:\/\/shortform.com\/app\/book\/money-master-the-game\/1-page-summary#you-create-your-experience\">to master something, you need to understand it in theory, <em>commit to it emotionally<\/em><\/a>, and then take action to grasp it in practice. Just <em>knowing<\/em> something isn\u2019t enough.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Lesson #2: Explaining ripple effects makes you more persuasive.<\/strong> By showing that you\u2019ve considered the extended consequences of a choice, you can become more persuasive in business and personal relationships.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>(Shortform note: Ancient Greek philosophers <a href=\"https:\/\/thedecisionlab.com\/reference-guide\/philosophy\/ethos-pathos-and-logos\">used three aspects of persuasion: ethos, pathos, and logos<\/a>. Above, the authors imply that a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/how-to-understand-anything-deeply\/\">deeper understanding<\/a> of systems and ripple effects strengthens the <em>logos<\/em>, or logic and reasoning, of your argument. While this matters, negotiation expert Chris Voss argues in <a href=\"https:\/\/shortform.com\/app\/book\/never-split-the-difference\/1-page-summary\"><em>Never Split the Difference<\/em><\/a> that <a href=\"https:\/\/shortform.com\/app\/book\/never-split-the-difference\/1-page-summary#the-emotional-basis-of-negotiation\">the emotional aspect of persuasion\u2014pathos\u2014is more important<\/a>. He suggests using <em>calculated empathy<\/em>, or understanding someone\u2019s emotional needs in order to get what you want from them. If demonstrating that you\u2019re a clear thinker helps, it might be because it helps the other person <em>feel<\/em> more confident in your <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/methods-of-decision-making-crucial-conversations\/\">decision-making<\/a> abilities.)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What is second-order thinking? How can it help you make better decisions? Because we live and act within large, interconnected systems\u2014such as our workplaces or professional communities\u2014our actions have consequences that ripple outward. Since anything you do has downstream effects, you should consider the immediate and secondary effects of any choice. Read more to learn how to use second-order thinking to everyone&#8217;s advantage.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":76374,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[20,43,24],"tags":[724],"class_list":["post-76372","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ethics","category-self-improvement","category-society","tag-the-great-mental-models-volume-1","","tg-column-two"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.3 (Yoast SEO v24.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>What Is Second-Order Thinking? Considering the Consequences - Shortform Books<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"What is second-order thinking? Actions have consequences that ripple outward. 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