What’s Occam\u2019s Razor, and how can it help you solve problems in life? What should you do if you’re not operating in your “region of mastery”?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Great Mental Models<\/a> Volume 1: General Thinking Concepts<\/em><\/em> presents a foundational set of nine mental models. According to authors Shane Parrish and Rhiannon Beaubien, these models are timeless thinking tools from a variety of fields.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Keep reading to learn how these models can equip you to make better decisions<\/a>, avoid consequential mistakes, and succeed in life and work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n Each day, we face difficult decisions<\/a>. At the same time, the world moves so fast that we often lack a clear view of the problems we face. In The Great Mental Models Volume 1: General Thinking Concepts<\/em><\/em>, the authors argue that, in the face of this complexity and uncertainty, we can navigate tough decisions using mental models<\/strong>\u2014simple mental representations<\/a> of how things work\u2014that help you cut through complexity and understand the world. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The next two volumes of The Great Mental Models<\/em><\/a> build on the first, which introduces the premises and purpose of the series. Volume 2<\/em><\/a> continues with mental models from physics, chemistry, and biology, and Volume 3<\/em><\/a> describes models from systems thinking and mathematics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Parrish and Beaubien, both former Canadian intelligence agents, are the founder and content strategist (respectively) of the Farnam Street<\/a> blog, where they write about mental models, decision-making<\/a>, and the pursuit of wisdom. In this guide, we\u2019ll explain their view of mental models\u2014what they are, how they work, and why they matter\u2014and we\u2019ll introduce the nine models they present.<\/p>\n\n\n\n To begin, we\u2019ll explain the authors\u2019 approach to mental models. We\u2019ll describe what a mental model is and describe why you need them, and we\u2019ll discuss the type of models that the authors chose for Volume 1<\/em> of The Great Mental Models.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n Put simply, a mental model represents how something works. <\/strong>According to the authors, mental models are<\/a> time-tested ways of thinking that help us break down and solve complex problems<\/a>. According to the authors, mental models make you a better decision-maker in life and work<\/strong> because they enable you to understand why things happen in the ways they do and therefore be able to predict what will happen next.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In Volume 1<\/em>, the authors focus on broad thinking tools that don\u2019t fall into any specific field<\/strong>, opting instead to begin with a well-rounded repertoire of mental models that capture humanity\u2019s best, time-tested wisdom.<\/p>\n\n\n\n With that, let\u2019s take an introductory look at the authors\u2019 nine foundational mental models.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n To begin, the authors introduce three elemental models that apply to many situations. These first models expand upon and demonstrate the authors\u2019 notions of what mental models are and how they work: <\/p>\n\n\n\n Altogether, these broad \u201cmeta-models\u201d will help you think more clearly about each successive model.<\/p>\n\n\n\n First, the authors explain how to think about mental models as maps. To use them effectively, remember that maps aren\u2019t literal pictures <\/em>of the territory they describe, nor do they provide every piece of information available about that territory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Limitation #1: Maps are time-bound<\/strong>. We make maps at certain points in time, but maps don\u2019t automatically change as the world does. This means that maps go out of date.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Limitation #2: Maps are reductions<\/strong>. Remember that the territory and its map are different\u2014many things have been excluded from the map that you\u2019ll run into in real life. If you forget this, the authors say that you risk dogmatically forcing your maps to \u201cwork,\u201d even when they no longer fit reality.<\/p>\n\n\n\n When examining any problem, start with the basic facts or bedrock assumptions of the discipline or field. These are called first principles<\/em>\u2014in other words, the fundamentals of the discipline or domain. According to the authors, starting from the fundamentals enables you to think for yourself<\/a><\/strong>. If you start from the bedrock facts, you can devise solutions that are independent of cultural conventions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Knowing whether you\u2019re in a region of mastery or if you should seek support allows you to avoid blunders and make better decisions. In turn, this helps you learn, grow, and succeed more in life and work. According to the authors, that\u2019s where your weaknesses are\u2014areas where you\u2019re more likely to make mistakes. When you\u2019re outside your regions of mastery, remember that you know less than you might think.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Moving beyond the introductory models, the authors\u2019 next three models concern basic systems thinking. Parrish and Beaubien stress that we live in an interconnected world, and these models offer ways to think through, predict, and evaluate options in light of this interconnectedness. By understanding how your choices have ripple effects, you can avoid negative downstream consequences and ensure better outcomes for each decision you make.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Since anything you do has downstream effects, consider the immediate and<\/em> secondary effects of any choice<\/strong>. According to the authors, many decisions that have immediate positive results have negative consequences down the road. By thinking ahead, you can predict and prevent unwanted outcomes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The authors describe two lessons you can learn by considering consequences:<\/p>\n\n\n\n Lesson #1: Short-term benefits often have long-term consequences.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Lesson #2: Explaining ripple effects makes you more persuasive.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Considering the chances helps you determine which possibilities are most likely to happen. <\/strong>The authors recommend using probability techniques to explore the most likely consequences of a decision. They explain three forms of probabilistic thinking<\/a><\/strong>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n #1: Bayesian thinking<\/a><\/strong>: This involves evaluating new information in light of what you already know and being willing to update your beliefs when you receive new information.<\/p>\n\n\n\n #2: Fat-tailed curves<\/strong>: Some domains fit fat-tailed curves (as opposed to normal distribution bell curves<\/a>). Fat-tailed curves are more prone to extreme outlier events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n #3: Asymmetries<\/strong>: We often overestimate how accurate our probability estimates are, so we should remember that we’re biased to think more highly of ourselves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The authors say that, for problems that you can\u2019t test directly, thought experiments<\/a> allow you to consider all of the possibilities. A thought experiment<\/a> is an imagined scenario or hypothetical situation that you test with your mind\u2019s eye. In other words, you use imagination to rigorously explore what\u2019s possible<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In this final section, we\u2019ll pivot away from systems-thinking models to present the authors\u2019 final three models\u2014Occam\u2019s Razor, Hanlon\u2019s Razor<\/a>, and inversion. Each of these models is a self-contained \u201crule of thumb\u201d for solving tough problems. When applied correctly, they slice through complications, eliminate mental clutter, and help you home in on clear answers.<\/p>\n\n\n\nThe Great Mental Models Volume 1<\/em><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
What Mental Models Are and How They Work<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Group #1: Elemental Models<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Model #1: Know That Maps and Models Have Limitations<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
Model #2: Know Where to Start<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
Model #3: Know Your Strengths<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
Group #2: Models for Basic Systems Thinking<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Model #4: Consider the Consequences<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
Model #5: Consider the Chances<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
Model #6: Consider the Possibilities<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
Group #3: Problem-Solving Rules of Thumb<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Model #7: Occam\u2019s Razor<\/h4>\n\n\n\n