{"id":71843,"date":"2022-07-08T17:27:00","date_gmt":"2022-07-08T21:27:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/?p=71843"},"modified":"2022-07-18T10:34:47","modified_gmt":"2022-07-18T14:34:47","slug":"carl-sagans-baloney-detection-kit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/carl-sagans-baloney-detection-kit\/","title":{"rendered":"Carl Sagan&#8217;s Baloney Detection Kit: Check Your Beliefs"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>What&#8217;s Carl Sagan&#8217;s baloney detection kit? How can you use it to get at the truth about science and everything else?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Scientists are trained with what Carl Sagan calls a &#8220;baloney detection kit.&#8221; They&#8217;re given tools for critical thinking and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/healthy-skepticism\/\">healthy skepticism<\/a> that help them cut through the fog in the pursuit of truth. Sagan argues that we all need this kit, whether we&#8217;re trying to figure out the truth about the moon landing or an ad&#8217;s claim about toothpaste. In <em>The Demon-Haunted World<\/em>, Sagan explains how commercial culture tends to discourage critical thinking, shares three questions that foster healthy skepticism, describes common fallacies, and identifies five fallacious <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/what-is-anti-science\/\">anti-science<\/a> arguments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Keep reading to learn more about Carl Sagan&#8217;s baloney detection kit and how it can help you know what&#8217;s true and what isn&#8217;t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-sagan-s-baloney-detection-kit\">Sagan&#8217;s Baloney Detection Kit<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Carl Sagan says the pervasive commercialism of our modern world and our seemingly unlimited access to information make it much harder to determine what\u2019s true and what\u2019s not. Let\u2019s explore why we\u2019re often taken in by false advertising and then take a look at Carl Sagan&#8217;s baloney detection kit, which provides tools to help you evaluate the veracity of a claim.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-how-commercial-culture-discourages-critical-thinking\">How Commercial Culture Discourages Critical Thinking<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Sagan claims that commercial culture erodes our critical faculties in order to make money. Skepticism, he says, doesn\u2019t sell. Exaggerated headlines and pseudosciences appeal to our emotions, engender more attention, and thus, generate more profits. For this reason, we\u2019re likely to encounter many false or misleading claims through various media (television, radio, newspapers, and online sources):<strong> We\u2019re constantly encouraged to buy things without thinking too much about what we\u2019re buying<\/strong> or if the claims about the efficacy of the product are even valid. According to Sagan, even \u201creal scientists\u201d promote products for personal gain at the expense of the consumer and science alike. Commercial culture cultivates a general sense of credulity amongst the population, which is then used to feed you more baloney and extract more of your money.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/deceptive-advertising\/\">Deceptive Advertising<\/a><\/strong><br><br>Sagan was particularly prescient in his discussion of commercial culture. In 2022, deceptive or misleading claims in advertisements are still common. <a href=\"https:\/\/truthinadvertising.org\/articles\/deceptive-ad-trends-to-be-wary-of-in-2022\/\">Here are some deceptive ad trends experts are worried about in 2022<\/a>:<br><br><strong>Amazon\u2019s liability<\/strong>: A large part of Amazon\u2019s business is marketing and selling third-party products on its platform. Many have filed lawsuits trying to hold Amazon accountable for misleading customers or selling fake products, but these issues still remain.<br><br><strong>Life-saving claims<\/strong>: The criteria used for what is considered \u201clife-saving\u201d may differ from one company to the next. For example, Life Alert appears to have a very loose definition of \u201clife-saving\u201d to make it look like it saves more lives than it actually does.<br><br><strong>Income claims<\/strong>: As the multi-level marketing (MLM) industry grows, so do claims that people can make a lot of money by joining an MLM. These claims are usually false or exaggerated, as the vast majority of people joining MLMs make little or no money.<br><br><strong>Dark patterns<\/strong>: Dark patterns include things like tricking customers into signing up for subscriptions, claiming a product is in limited supply when it isn\u2019t, or \u201cconfirmshaming,\u201d in which customers are guilted into making purchases.&nbsp;<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-tools-for-skeptical-thinking\">Tools for Skeptical Thinking&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Sagan argues that skeptical thinking is more important in the modern world than ever before. The processes of science have a toolkit for skeptical thinking built in, one which the general public may not use or even be aware of. Essentially, <strong>skeptical thinking is a method of creating and understanding a well-founded argument<\/strong>. Sagan recommends asking some questions aimed at fostering skepticism:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>Can a study be validated by other sources? <\/strong>Research that isn\u2019t validated by outside sources is much more likely to be biased, fabricated, or irreproducible. A strong hypothesis will get the same results study after study. This is why reputable science journals only publish peer-reviewed research.<\/li><li><strong>Is the argument based on <em>evidence<\/em> or <em>an authority<\/em>?<\/strong> There are experts in science, not authorities. An argument from an authoritative figure does not carry any more weight. The validity of a claim depends entirely on the evidence, not the person or group providing it.&nbsp;<\/li><li><strong>Can a hypothesis be disproved?<\/strong> If a claim can\u2019t be disproven, it can\u2019t be proven, because there is no real way to test the hypothesis. <strong>Unfalsifiable hypotheses are a common tactic of pseudosciences.<\/strong> They shield themselves from criticism by making assertions that others can\u2019t disprove.&nbsp;<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>How to Be a \u201cTrue\u201d Skeptic<\/strong><br><br>Skepticism is a major principle of the scientific method, but it can be used incorrectly. Experts note that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.psychologytoday.com\/us\/blog\/the-homework-myth\/202109\/what-makes-true-skeptic#:~:text=we%20must%20be%20prepared%20to%20turn%20this,by%20humility.%20Beware%20of%20skepticism\">the language of skepticism has been co-opted to lend credence to pseudosciences and conspiracy theories<\/a>. Anti-vaxxers or climate change deniers may tell you to \u201cdo your own research\u201d instead of going along with conventional wisdom. There are many \u201cskeptics\u201d like this, and most of them are motivated by a desire for the truth, but there is real danger when claims that vaccines cause autism are treated as seriously as the science behind the vaccines.<br><br>This brand of skepticism seems to be more about discrediting established science or questioning objective truth in general than about making a valid argument against it. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/scientific-skepticism\/\">Scientific skepticism<\/a> is open to criticism. It challenges widely accepted beliefs, but it does so while adhering to evidence. It is not enough to simply be skeptical\u2014you must be willing to support your claims, not just question everything and attack all other claims to knowledge. Therefore, while the above skeptical questions Sagan provides are a good start, it\u2019s important to also take into account the credibility of any alternative sources of information you look to\u2014for example, independent validation of a hypothesis should come from a credible source.&nbsp;<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-common-fallacies\"><strong>Common Fallacies&nbsp;<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Sagan claims it\u2019s just as important to understand deceptive or fallacious arguments as it is to understand a reasonable argument. There is a long list of logical and rhetorical fallacies, and many of them are commonly seen in religious and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/political-discourse\/\">political discourse<\/a>. <strong>They\u2019re also frequently used to criticize science.<\/strong> Here are a few of the most common examples.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>Non sequitur<\/strong>: When the conclusion doesn\u2019t logically follow from the premise of the argument. Many of the logical fallacies mentioned can be considered nonsequiturs.<\/li><li><strong>Ad hominem<\/strong>: Attacking the person making the argument rather than the argument itself. Essentially, this is resorting to name-calling instead of making an actual counterargument.<\/li><li><strong>Appeal to authority<\/strong>: When an opinion from an authority is used to support an argument&nbsp;<\/li><li><strong>False dichotomy<\/strong>: To only consider the two extreme sides of an argument when there are many more options&nbsp;<\/li><li><strong>Straw man<\/strong>: To distort or exaggerate an opposing argument to make it easier to attack&nbsp;<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Fallacious Anti-Science Arguments<\/strong><br><br>Sagan provides common examples of rhetorical fallacies. It is important to understand how they work for any argument, but with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/pmc\/articles\/PMC3787818\/\">climate change denial growing<\/a>, understanding in particular how they\u2019re used to criticize science is crucial. Scientists found common rhetorical techniques used for science denial across a range of topics including climate change and evolution. <a href=\"https:\/\/skepticalscience.com\/history-FLICC-5-techniques-science-denial.html\">There are five common techniques of science denial<\/a>.<br><br><strong>Fake experts<\/strong>: When an unqualified person or institution is presented as a source of credible information. This can be seen as an extension of the appeal to authority. It is not the person\u2019s credentials that matter, but their argument. An example might be: \u201cA retired physicist argues that the current weather change is completely natural.\u201d<br><br><strong>Logical fallacies<\/strong>: Also known as nonsequiturs. There are many logical fallacies used to deny science. Here are examples: \u201cClimate science can\u2019t be trusted because climate scientists are biased.\u201d (Ad hominem) \u201cClimate has changed naturally in the past, so current climate change must also be natural.\u201d (False dichotomy)&nbsp; \u201cIn the 1970s, climate scientists predicted there would be an ice age.\u201d (Straw man)<br><br><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/impossible-expectations\/\">Impossible expectations<\/a><\/strong>: Demanding unrealistic standards of certainty before acting on the science. For example, \u201cScientists don\u2019t know what the climate will be like decades from now.\u201d<br><br><strong>Cherry picking<\/strong>: Selecting data that supports your argument while ignoring data that contradicts it. For instance, \u201cThere are record low temperatures today\u2014whatever happened to global warming?\u201d<br><br><strong>Conspiracy theories<\/strong>: In regard to science denial, this often involves some secret plan to hide the truth for nefarious reasons. An example could be: \u201cThe temperature record is fabricated by scientists to push a socialist agenda.\u201d<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Exercise: Examine Your Beliefs and Claims to Knowledge<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Sagan argues that we often are resistant to new discoveries because they challenge our existing beliefs. Here, examine your beliefs and think about how they might affect your openness to new information.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Think about your core beliefs. Pick something you believe in that doesn\u2019t have enough scientific backing to be considered fact. This could be a religious or spiritual belief or simply an opinion you have that shapes the way you view the world. Why do you think you hold this belief?<\/li><li>How does this belief affect your life and the decisions you make, large or small?<\/li><li>What would it take for you to dismiss this belief or believe in something else? Are you more likely to investigate new information if it upholds your beliefs or if it opposes them? Why do you think that is?<\/li><\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What&#8217;s Carl Sagan&#8217;s baloney detection kit? How can you use it to get at the truth about science and everything else? Scientists are trained with what Carl Sagan calls a &#8220;baloney detection kit.&#8221; They&#8217;re given tools for critical thinking and healthy skepticism that help them cut through the fog in the pursuit of truth. Sagan argues that we all need this kit, whether we&#8217;re trying to figure out the truth about the moon landing or an ad&#8217;s claim about toothpaste. In The Demon-Haunted World, Sagan explains how commercial culture tends to discourage critical thinking, shares three questions that foster healthy<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":71851,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[160,43],"tags":[680],"class_list":["post-71843","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-science","category-self-improvement","tag-the-demon-haunted-world","","tg-column-two"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.3 (Yoast SEO v24.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Carl Sagan&#039;s Baloney Detection Kit: Check Your Beliefs - Shortform Books<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Carl Sagan&#039;s baloney detection kit can help you know what&#039;s true and what isn&#039;t. 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Learn his tips for critical thinking and healthy skepticism.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/carl-sagans-baloney-detection-kit\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Shortform Books\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-07-08T21:27:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-07-18T14:34:47+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/s3.amazonaws.com\/wordpress.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/magnifying-glass-truth-lies-true-deception.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1079\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"449\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Elizabeth Whitworth\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Elizabeth Whitworth\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"7 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/carl-sagans-baloney-detection-kit\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/carl-sagans-baloney-detection-kit\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Elizabeth Whitworth\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/d2928cf6c11a69ced1491d6a5b74fb13\"},\"headline\":\"Carl Sagan&#8217;s Baloney Detection Kit: Check Your Beliefs\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-07-08T21:27:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-07-18T14:34:47+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/carl-sagans-baloney-detection-kit\/\"},\"wordCount\":1568,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/carl-sagans-baloney-detection-kit\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/magnifying-glass-truth-lies-true-deception.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"The Demon-Haunted World\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Science\",\"Self-Improvement\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/carl-sagans-baloney-detection-kit\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/carl-sagans-baloney-detection-kit\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/carl-sagans-baloney-detection-kit\/\",\"name\":\"Carl Sagan's Baloney Detection Kit: Check Your Beliefs - Shortform Books\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/carl-sagans-baloney-detection-kit\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/carl-sagans-baloney-detection-kit\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.shortform.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/magnifying-glass-truth-lies-true-deception.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-07-08T21:27:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-07-18T14:34:47+00:00\",\"description\":\"Carl Sagan's baloney detection kit can help you know what's true and what isn't. 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